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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,701
  • Edited 4:39pm May 29, 2010 4:26pm | Edited 4:39pm
Quoting auxesis
Dongsky,

I can't over emphasize the fact to "trade your chart"....
Ahh, this is something I thought would never see in this thread. Three kingdoms then and now, the risk/capital flows on the world map. I'd love to go ahead with this if anyone else is interested... Even though it may require the creation of another thread, I wouldn't like this to become another spiral within spiral monstrosity (as fti hinted).

@dongsky - From what I see in your posts you are a rare commodity in this forum, hats off to you, keep up the good work. I wouldn't call myself a prudent student of fti, but if there's one lesson I value most from him (apart from the partially encrypted partially technical MM and MO stuff) is that everything depends on finding your way to assimilate what market shows you. We live in times where getting information is easier then ever and yet most traders around fail. Ever thought about it? We've all read the stories of the traders of the past - they made miracle profits and become legends ... not by using some trading holy grail but simply being right in their judgment of what the heck's going on with that marketplace. But people simply like to dig into the easy and/or mystical. Gann was a brilliant mathematician but what people read about him is astrology and mystical stories. I'm telling, you if he was alive today he'd probably be laughing his ass off.


@lilpip - hmm, the gata guys aren't really my cup of tea even though I do trade gold. The rest I find most interesting and I will try to find some time and have a good look at them through the weekend (half gone already ) I would like to add to your list Zerohedge if I may. Some find their comments a bit too spicy (one of the reasons I like them actually) but their insight is a complete breath of fresh air in the world of mainstream media.

Regards
  • #15,702
  • May 29, 2010 5:33pm May 29, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting nubcake
entirely wrong. i'm saying don't spend 3 months playing on a demo account. if you could trade 2 or 3 years worth of data in the space of a fortnight would you do it?
You can not fast forward through your emotions, my friend.
  • #15,703
  • May 29, 2010 5:36pm May 29, 2010 5:36pm
It's a weekend ! get a life !

why did i log in.....
  • #15,704
  • May 29, 2010 6:24pm May 29, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
It's a weekend ! get a life !

why did i log in.....
Really!
  • #15,705
  • May 29, 2010 6:26pm May 29, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting nubcake

Blah blah blah,

enough from me. enjoy.
Where did I go wrong in understanding? Thought you were leaving?
  • #15,706
  • May 29, 2010 6:30pm May 29, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting Gro
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BgCpkduEQ7U&NR=1
on the Sitar

One of the all time great performances

Inserted Video


And the combo of Shankar / Menuhin

Inserted Video
  • #15,707
  • Edited 7:26pm May 29, 2010 6:59pm | Edited 7:26pm
Quoting esuffw
Dear all dancers

I am currently analysing my own trades for this month. I made accumulated 1450+ pips for the first 20 trading days for May, only to loose all 1450 pips on the last 3 days of my trading when I made a cut to the snowballing. The mistakes were the good old stories of the scorpion and the old man on the roof.

I have mostly been trading trends on the 5 mins tf. The way I trade is to pick the S and R for the trend. I watch the heads and legs to show on the S and R. Besides that, I will never catch a falling knife. I wait until the...

Hi esuffw,

if i may, this is the way i understand fti's teaching, maybe people find it here very basic bit it really works for me...

i empty my mind (through 5-10 min meditation) before i sit infront of my monitor, releasing of any thought of my past trading or experiences. i want to be in a neutral state of mind when i do my analysis.

i check 3 kingdoms' behavioural relationship if there's something to note for or say discripancies to take into account for. if none, then i will take the pairs that i believe in a good trend, normally EU.

once decided on a pair, i do top down approached, pull down daily, hourly and 15 minute to see the trends if they're all aligned meaning in the same tune ( direction) if they are i will open my 5 minute window and look for the right entry...

i will be looking at the movement of the market for awhile until i will get grasp of its dance tune and feel her pulse (momentum) and when i'm a bit sure of her tune, i will jump in and dance with her (by deploying my first scout) - proper MM is a must.

when the scout is in good position and on the right direction (that is i am dancing the right tune, moves and pace) then i will deploy now my army as per my battle plan attack sequence of 112 or 113.

i always eyeing for posible bar reversals, pattern formations for minor retracement, reversal or correction... assessing always my current exposure. if i feel that my armies are in danger, i normally bring all of them without second thought or sign of doubt... leaving my scout for more directional feel.

when i am in bear mode, i always ask will she go down, will she go down, but never ask myself is she going up. fti said, when in bear mode, never think of a bull. and hey, that helps me let my winner ride the bus longger or should say until the bus run out of gas (stalled). get out quickly and see if there's a possible "change of wind" then i might jump in.

during congestion period, i look for direction on higher tf, 15 or 1 hour.

when the run is too high or deep, i normally pull out my scout, banked in profits, and i will re-deploy them again when price action will come back from sma.

i seldom rescue operations because i'm not good at it, but if need be my sequence will be, 1,3,5 and kill them all... most of the time 1,3 and kill them all if that won't be successfull. but remember not all bleeding scouts can be rescuede... if your counter trending, i beleive better cut the scout straight away and reposition your armies.

i don't know about others here because i might be dancing different from them but so far it works for me, and i'm very comfortable doing it and implementing all my battle plans.

the key always is be nimble and never be rigid with whatever you think is correct and good... for in the end it is you - the general, the key to win the war. fti's teaching is our tool to become a better generals.

be good and be safe.
dongsky
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,708
  • May 29, 2010 7:03pm May 29, 2010 7:03pm
Quoting Setebos
@dongsky - From what I see in your posts you are a rare commodity in this forum, hats off to you, keep up the good work. I wouldn't call myself a prudent student of fti, but if there's one lesson I value most from him (apart from the partially encrypted partially technical MM and MO stuff) is that everything depends on finding your way to assimilate what market shows you. We live in times where getting information is easier then ever and yet most traders around fail. Ever thought about it? We've all read the stories of the traders of the past -...

noted and thank you!

be good and be safe.

dongsky
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,709
  • May 29, 2010 7:34pm May 29, 2010 7:34pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
It's a weekend ! get a life !

why did i log in.....
Me too well just to say

Have a good weekend to all

Cheers,
  • #15,710
  • May 29, 2010 7:54pm May 29, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting dongsky
Hi esuffw,

if i may, this is the way i understand fti's teaching, maybe people find it here very basic bit it really works for me...

i empty my mind (through 5-10 min meditation) before i sit infront of my monitor, releasing of any thought of my past trading or experiences. i want to be in a neutral state of mind when i do my analysis.

i check 3 kingdoms' behavioural relationship if there's something to note for or say discripancies to take into account for. if none, then i will take the pairs that i believe in a good trend, normally EU....

i think its suit for me ,, iam not good too for rescue other word i am scare/afraid for rescue

but may i know normally / usually you finish your trade for how long ? / how many hour ??

and what time you usually start your trade ??

and if you in the wrong way ,,, are you surrender too ??

if you surrender too ,,,when you surrender ? what position when you surrender ?

many thanks for your replay dongsky

regard
sumakianlee
  • #15,711
  • Edited 8:52pm May 29, 2010 8:12pm | Edited 8:52pm
Quoting Baifu
Hi Pete,

Thank you for your kind words and well wishes. Mamood's performance is truly formidable

As for me I just want a method based on common sense and reason, confidence for me comes from understanding why something works. fti's teaching is like godsend, it is nothing but reason and common sense, and gems hidden in metaphors and ancient tales.

Rgs
Baifu
Welcome Baifu,

I can see your potential you are working hard person.

Also you were repeating Fti's teaching in the thread what you learnt while you were practicing & learning.

Why I like to read your comments? Well I can revise Fti's teaching at the same time while I'm reading your comments(too lazy to reread again but I will reread again next month on my holiday) by the way I've already read TAF 3 times(like digging gold - the more you read the more you understand).
Do whatever you are comfortable with & confidence is the key - dancing with your will.

Have a good weekend.

Cheers,
  • #15,712
  • Edited 11:39pm May 29, 2010 8:29pm | Edited 11:39pm
Quoting edison0120
hi all,

i am new and so excited to find this thread. i hope i can find assistance i just opened a live account after i had a successful 3months demo account and now i believe i'm ready to do it live. I like your concept here that TA is a fallacy... but how can i tell the thrend or where it's going without my indicators, as what most of you suggesting here.

can anybody help?
What can I say? Well I look back to my starting point 3 years back I thought indicators were the only way to trade then later Volume,Price action, trading nake .....and so on.......I got your point

Read this thread from page 1 to 200 (it's a core). Then demo & revise the thread again also do research on price action & naked trading(so you can get rid of indicators).

Hope it helps.

Cheers,
  • #15,713
  • May 29, 2010 9:23pm May 29, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting piccolo
You can not fast forward through your emotions, my friend.
the same could be said for demo-trading... you can't demo-trade true financial emotions, so clearly that is not the point of trading as much data as quickly as reasonably possible.

if you find no use in it, then there is no use in it for you.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,714
  • May 29, 2010 9:25pm May 29, 2010 9:25pm
Quoting auxesis
Where did I go wrong in understanding? Thought you were leaving?
i did. you just didn't notice.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,715
  • Edited 10:54pm May 29, 2010 10:41pm | Edited 10:54pm
Quoting sumakianlee
i think its suit for me ,, iam not good too for rescue other word i am scare/afraid for rescue

but may i know normally / usually you finish your trade for how long ? / how many hour ??

and what time you usually start your trade ??

and if you in the wrong way ,,, are you surrender too ??

if you surrender too ,,,when you surrender ? what position when you surrender ?

many thanks for your replay dongsky

regard
sumakianlee
you are welcome my friend! i normally start at london open until a little overlap from new york open (say 1 to 2 hours) because for me that's where the good momentum and volatility is.

be good and be safe.

regards,
dongsky

p.s. you are welcome to join me in my journal!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,716
  • May 29, 2010 10:50pm May 29, 2010 10:50pm
Quoting Zoran
Ahh, Melbourne... I have fond memories... one of the best cities in the world. Where else do you get four seasons in one day?
... only in melbourne my friend. northern suburbs is pouring, western suburb is hot muggy sunny and freezing cold in south... just a normal day in melbourne sometimes hailstorms in the east remember, that occurs in one single day
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,717
  • May 30, 2010 1:19am May 30, 2010 1:19am
Quoting dongsky
Hi esuffw,

if i may, this is the way i understand fti's teaching, maybe people find it here very basic bit it really works for me...

i empty my mind (through 5-10 min meditation) before i sit infront of my monitor, releasing of any thought of my past trading or experiences. i want to be in a neutral state of mind when i do my analysis.

i check 3 kingdoms' behavioural relationship if there's something to note for or say discripancies to take into account for. if none, then i will take the pairs that i believe in a good trend, normally EU....
Dear Dongsky

Thank you for sharing your experience. I will read more live charts to gain the feel. I guess that is my biggest problem still, my FEEL for the dance.

Have a good weekend
Life is a school for the soul
  • #15,718
  • May 30, 2010 1:57am May 30, 2010 1:57am
Quoting pete.alfa
What can I say? Well I look back to my starting point 3 years back I thought indicators were the only way to trade then later Volume,Price action, trading nake .....and so on.......I got your point

Read this thread from page 1 to 200 (it's a core). Then demo & revise the thread again also do research on price action & naked trading(so you can get rid of indicators).

Hope it helps.

Cheers,
hi pete,

thanks bro, i'm still into it... dunno when i will reach #200 i appreciated what you've done. just opened a demo account and once i had clearer picture of what does this thread all about then i will start demoing this method. looks very promising though.

regards,
Ed
  • #15,719
  • May 30, 2010 3:14am May 30, 2010 3:14am
Quoting nubcake
i'm saying don't spend 3 months playing on a demo account. if you could trade 2 or 3 years worth of data in the space of a fortnight would you do it? ......
... . i truly wonder if a lot of you actually venture anywhere else but this thread (i know some do) or just keep yourselves caged...
seriously, it feels like a cult in here when i read the thread sometimes.….. AOW is not the holy grail. your own mind is ………. keep fighting the good fight... which is not with me or anyone, but is with yourself
The charting/backtest software I use introduced “bar replay” several years ago, I use it occasionally if I miss a trading day or to practise real time reading of patterns/wave, it opened my eyes how hindsight charts mislead e.g. by comparing successful and failed patterns with patterns in the making.

As to the world outside the “cult”, been there, done that and no thanks. It is very time consuming to sift through the internet to find pearls (ForexFactory is a good forum). I trust my judgment I recognize value when I see it, and value is here in this thread. I am working to formulate my own MM and MO but I do not intend to re-invent the wheel.

There is no holy grail, AOW is just dance and mindset training (yes, ME), do respect me less for it because huge chunks of it are a mystery to me . As to fighting with you, it’s my bad egor – I just cannot leave wrong assumptions unchallenged.

The experiment posted (broker charts, blotters and pip_% PnL_# troop_skew level_DD) is a personal discovery of the power of position sizing (skew), I think there is a lot to explore here, in demo.

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #15,720
  • Edited 7:10am May 30, 2010 6:29am | Edited 7:10am
Quoting auxesis
on the Sitar

One of the all time great performances

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AjoSZ5rda8

And the combo of Shankar / Menuhin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3Ml1R9cpTA
Hi Auxesis

Nice

Why music?Why right music?Why harmonic music?

Regards

Birth Music
Inserted Video
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