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Silent Service Method

  • #8,881
  • May 28, 2010 4:19am May 28, 2010 4:19am
Quoting tobias24
anyone else watching usd/jpy?
its sitting at trendline and 50% if i am not wrong..


still learning
It's far too volatile at the moment for me. In general I think it will go up but how it will do it is anyone's guess.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,882
  • Edited 6:47am May 28, 2010 6:41am | Edited 6:47am
Hi all,

Does this look like a buy signal on silver at the moment? And more importantly if it is, would the buy stop be best located where I have put it just above the fib level or should it be put a bit higher above some of the previous breaches of the fib level around 18.90 (atm it is at 18.65). I ask because some of you guys place resting buy/sell orders closer to S/R areas than others.

Cheers.
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  • #8,883
  • May 28, 2010 9:15am May 28, 2010 9:15am
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi all,

Does this look like a buy signal on silver at the moment? And more importantly if it is, would the buy stop be best located where I have put it just above the fib level or should it be put a bit higher above some of the previous breaches of the fib level around 18.90 (atm it is at 18.65). I ask because some of you guys place resting buy/sell orders closer to S/R areas than others.

Cheers.
If I were to buy this, it would only be on the break of this level, and a retest. Truthfully, that candle you have the arrow pointing at is the real signal. At this point you should have already been in it, and at b/e.
  • #8,884
  • May 28, 2010 9:16am May 28, 2010 9:16am
Quoting tobias24
anyone else watching usd/jpy?
its sitting at trendline and 50% if i am not wrong..


still learning
I see 88 as the "floor" to this pair, I would be looking at buying in that area. I don't think I would be too keen to short this pair anymore, as it broke the weekly downtrend line a few weeks ago. I believe we are in what is known as "accumulation" phase....
  • #8,885
  • May 28, 2010 9:18am May 28, 2010 9:18am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Eurusd is doing nothing at the moment but I still think it's too far from the daily trendline to short right now. That long term weekly trendline is acting too. I can see it bouncing up quite hard before we see any more strong move down but who knows?

Chris, you know you talk about 'the trade that changed everything'. My eurnzd is definitely the one for me. This trade is going to change the way I trade forever. 7 open positions now, 6 at breakeven or better, I'll need a truck to carry my locked in pips not to mention the swap.

Kick ass. Good for you. Everyone I know that is trading well has a story like this. A member in my group right now has over 1800 pips locked in on 2 trades, and was wondering "What to do?" I simply told him: Sit and wait. It can possibly go farther you know?

He is up 19% in last month or so. A good year, let alone month.
  • #8,886
  • May 28, 2010 1:32pm May 28, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting clockwork71
Kick ass. Good for you. Everyone I know that is trading well has a story like this. A member in my group right now has over 1800 pips locked in on 2 trades, and was wondering "What to do?" I simply told him: Sit and wait. It can possibly go farther you know?

He is up 19% in last month or so. A good year, let alone month.
Nice! Better than 4% from a bank.

What do you think of the idea of using a hedge instead of a stop loss on this kind of trade? If you're certain of the trend but the pair retraces further than you would expect then instead of letting a stop loss take you out why not hedge your profit and remove the hedge for a paper profit when the trend resumes. The worst that can happen is that the trend becomes unclear in which case you just close all trades for the same profit you would have taken with a stop loss?

I can see downsides like you remove the hedge and it carries on in the wrong direction but then you are only losing some profit instead of actual capital.

The other point about this is that I have quite a few positions open at the moment for a much larger cumulative lot size than I would ever normally trade. The hedge would have to obviously be for the same lot size as all of my added on trades added up. This means that any retrace profit you take would be at a much larger lot size than I could normally trade. If I closed the trade with a stop loss I would then have to reopen with my initial lot size to fit my money management requirements.

I hope I've explained this well enough?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,887
  • May 28, 2010 2:04pm May 28, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Nice! Better than 4% from a bank.

What do you think of the idea of using a hedge instead of a stop loss on this kind of trade? If you're certain of the trend but the pair retraces further than you would expect then instead of letting a stop loss take you out why not hedge your profit and remove the hedge for a paper profit when the trend resumes. The worst that can happen is that the trend becomes unclear in which case you just close all trades for the same profit you would have taken with a stop loss?

I can see downsides like you remove the...
The first question is does your broker allow it

I actually do this on short term trades, almost exactly as you are describing. I will trade long term with the trend but often will want to flip short term on a "channel" trade. A good example would be the NZDUSD. Long term short, but we hit the bottom of a channel a few days ago and I have a short term long on as well.

EDIT: I would like to say, though, that I STILL keep a stop loss. What I will do, however, is move the stop loss the "catasptrphe" level if I am not around my computer. I will also set the TP of the hedge at the same level (or a "spread" below) so the trades will cancel each other out in the case of a crazy spike. If I am around and actually watching, though, its a bit different. Once I see the trade going back with the major trend, I will take profit on the hedge and move my SL back to a reasonable risk level.
  • #8,888
  • May 28, 2010 2:13pm May 28, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting TraderDavo
The first question is does your broker allow it

I actually do this on short term trades, almost exactly as you are describing. I will trade long term with the trend but often will want to flip short term on a "channel" trade. A good example would be the NZDUSD. Long term short, but we hit the bottom of a channel a few days ago and I have a short term long on as well.

EDIT: I would like to say, though, that I STILL keep a stop loss. What I will do, however, is move the stop loss the "catasptrphe" level if I am not around my computer. I...
Yes, my broker allows it but I just wondered if it's a good idea?

If the hedge trade is the same size as your original trade size then a spike in either direction won't make a difference as you are hedged, your equity stays the same whatever happens so no need for any stop losses?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,889
  • May 28, 2010 3:02pm May 28, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Yes, my broker allows it but I just wondered if it's a good idea?

If the hedge trade is the same size as your original trade size then a spike in either direction won't make a difference as you are hedged, your equity stays the same whatever happens so no need for any stop losses?

I guess I was more addressing if you are walking away. I was saying don't set a hedge with a TP and not still have a matching SL for the trend trade or some other mechanism to stop loss. Obviously you have thought of this, but you would see that the reason being that if you hit your hedge TP and then blow through it, you have no SL and could be left with a huge loss. If you plan on just letting both of them run, then its different.
  • #8,890
  • May 28, 2010 4:22pm May 28, 2010 4:22pm
german arl. pinbar retraced at a ppz, but also running into a round number (14 euro). plan: short at the break of the pinbar. add to shorts at the break of the rn 14 euro. just my two cents. opinions?
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #8,891
  • May 28, 2010 6:15pm May 28, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting aserbfx
german arl. pinbar retraced at a ppz, but also running into a round number (14 euro). plan: short at the break of the pinbar. add to shorts at the break of the rn 14 euro. just my two cents. opinions?
Here are two other conflicting charts.....
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  • #8,892
  • May 29, 2010 7:25am May 29, 2010 7:25am
Check out the new software.....has some worldwide stock index charts.....and what they are starting to show.

http://thetraderguy.com/stock%20market/
  • #8,893
  • May 29, 2010 9:23am May 29, 2010 9:23am
It's funny when you read back through some of the trading books you read in the past with the benefit of what you know now. It makes you seriously wonder if any of the people who wrote these books have ever traded at all. I suppose there's the possibility that just because their whacko systems don't work for me the fault is on my part and that a competent trader could actually make money trading using their advice but I'm not sure I actually believe that.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,894
  • May 29, 2010 12:08pm May 29, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
It's funny when you read back through some of the trading books you read in the past with the benefit of what you know now. It makes you seriously wonder if any of the people who wrote these books have ever traded at all. I suppose there's the possibility that just because their whacko systems don't work for me the fault is on my part and that a competent trader could actually make money trading using their advice but I'm not sure I actually believe that.
I have several books that would fall into that category as well. When I look back at them, it is funny actually.

The main reason I call how I trade a "method" and not a system, is that a system implies you have some magical combo of indicators and moving averages, for instance. When I decided to become profitable, (that's right I said decided.) I wanted it to be simple. There is nothing new that I do, with maybe the exception of the whole "Take setups two time frames higher than you follow...." But I digress.

I started this thread because trading really isn't difficult. (I don't care what people say.) It is us that makes it difficult. It's just a tool to get to where you want to go, it's not life.

I truly believe that all you need is a good technical analysis book, and some help from decent people that have been trading a little longer than you is all.....the rest is just noise.

Chris
  • #8,895
  • May 29, 2010 12:59pm May 29, 2010 12:59pm
It's only Saturday, and Dubai's making headlines. Asking for a 3 month extension on it's debt.

Just a heads up.
  • #8,896
  • May 29, 2010 1:14pm May 29, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting Low
It's only Saturday, and Dubai's making headlines. Asking for a 3 month extension on it's debt.

Just a heads up.
What is funny is that even though we all expected it - it will somehow be treated as news.
  • #8,897
  • May 29, 2010 1:15pm May 29, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting clockwork71
What is funny is that even though we all expected it - it will somehow be treated as news.

What are you trying to say Chris?

That we can't just all borrow our way out of debt?
  • #8,898
  • May 29, 2010 2:12pm May 29, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting clockwork71
I have several books that would fall into that category as well. When I look back at them, it is funny actually.

The main reason I call how I trade a "method" and not a system, is that a system implies you have some magical combo of indicators and moving averages, for instance. When I decided to become profitable, (that's right I said decided.) I wanted it to be simple. There is nothing new that I do, with maybe the exception of the whole "Take setups two time frames higher than you follow...." But I digress.

I started this...
I'm seriously liking the idea of just trading bounces from strong weekly trendlines on a 4 hour chart and adding on like I have done with eurnzd.

It seems to me that your magic system of... er, price action at significant support and resistance... ok, method, is the most logical way to go.

Whenever a strong trendline and a strong s/r level meet is a place to watch for a reversal and if it's in the direction of a trend then to me it's an A+ setup.

After that it's just a case of being very careful with your add ons and you're laughing all the way.

Actually I know what you mean, I think, about deciding to be profitable. The day I stopped adding to losers and started adding to winners is the day I broke through.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,899
  • Edited 6:37pm May 29, 2010 6:15pm | Edited 6:37pm
hi afer
this is a one of the ways i trade for more than 2 years now , i use a daily chart and draw a trendline( having some history not a trend line old just a few months ) and wait for the price to hit the trend line , the next candle i wait to see an engulfing bar or if i had a pin on the trend line i wait for the price to break it , and enter .like this u are trading with the trend after a pull back and u are entering after having a candle confirmation that the price has resumed it is original trend and we are not having a breakout .
the logic behind is sound , and same as a bounce on an horizontal line with a candle confirmation .
this way of trading has a very high success rate .
regards
samer



Quoting Arfer Daily
I'm seriously liking the idea of just trading bounces from strong weekly trendlines on a 4 hour chart and adding on like I have done with eurnzd.

It seems to me that your magic system of... er, price action at significant support and resistance... ok, method, is the most logical way to go.

Whenever a strong trendline and a strong s/r level meet is a place to watch for a reversal and if it's in the direction of a trend then to me it's an A+ setup.

After that it's just a case of being very careful with your add ons and you're laughing all...
  • #8,900
  • May 29, 2010 7:19pm May 29, 2010 7:19pm
Quoting Low
What are you trying to say Chris?

That we can't just all borrow our way out of debt?
Well if Samer decides to take some of his profits and loan it to his neighbors, there won't be a Dubai World crisis!

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