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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,661
  • May 29, 2010 12:24am May 29, 2010 12:24am
heh. i think i have a trader-crush on someone.... NOT SAYING WHO!

this thread would also greatly benefit from being less enigmatic and obfuscated. i don't have troops in my account. i have money. and i'm exposing a certain amount of money with each trade. it may be a battle in my head, but the reality is it's money in money out.

it seems everything has a pseudo-name in this thread. it's one thing to give an analogy to further the understanding of a principle or concept... but taken too far and this might as well all be written in dutch. reality is clarity.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,662
  • May 29, 2010 12:25am May 29, 2010 12:25am
having said all that, i'm going to hybernate now to my cocoon.

hasta la vista baby

be good and be safe!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,663
  • May 29, 2010 1:23am May 29, 2010 1:23am
@nubcake

I think you should have more respect for someone who is trying to give knowledge. Maybe, we are all unicorns?

People follow lots of things blindly. Can anyone PROVE that any "God" exist?
No. but we follow anyway.

So,..what proof do you have that Fti. is not who he says he is? and why should we not follow blindly?

I learned some time ago, that you learn with your ears open and your mouth closed. Thats why I lurk and do not post often. Maybe you should do the same?

@ Fti

If you read this , I would give my left testicle to sit down and listen to what you had to say over a beer. The stories you could tell and the wisdom they contain would be awesome at the very least.
  • #15,664
  • May 29, 2010 3:18am May 29, 2010 3:18am
Quoting tubguy
@nubcake

I think you should have more respect for someone who is trying to give knowledge. Maybe, we are all unicorns?

People follow lots of things blindly. Can anyone PROVE that any "God" exist?
No. but we follow anyway.

So,..what proof do you have that Fti. is not who he says he is? and why should we not follow blindly?

I learned some time ago, that you learn with your ears open and your mouth closed. Thats why I lurk and do not post often. Maybe you should do the same?

@ Fti

If you read this , I would give my left testicle to sit down...
well done. you took the very least important part of my post and focused entirely on that. also, you completely missed the point of both the post and the part you focused on. hats off to you.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,665
  • May 29, 2010 3:47am May 29, 2010 3:47am
Yes I think this thread will definately be subject manager for some future doctorate in forum guru phenomena LOL. The original intent has become distorted - I certainly can't follow what people are talking about in the later stages, and haven't got any intention of wading through it all to understand the arcane terminology.

Clarity of expression is precious, and the enemy of those with confused or non-original thinking. Perhaps time to get back on focus of let the thing run its course. Great title though!
  • #15,666
  • May 29, 2010 4:13am May 29, 2010 4:13am
does anybody here still remember fti's 3 kingdoms, can someone please help me understand what does it represent to my trading advantage...

i only have a very limited understanding of this method (3 kingdoms), i couldn't find any explainations in the whole thread i tried my best to absorbed all info he's giving and i learned its co-relations during my trading experience, it was quite a while though.

another topic i want to know, which i believe fti did not share was when he mentioned during AOW sessions that next lesson will gonna be "blitzkrieg" or somethin? but i did my research and found materials about that topic and again tried my very best to relate it to the art of war and my current dancing skills... again i cannot be certain.

can anyone please explain or devulge the secrets of these mhyts.

i wanna learn...

fti urged all of us who wants to learn: keep on asking until we understand... but the problem i'm facing now is, without fti and the original (so i called them) are no longer here for people like me to address my questions.

help, anyone?
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,667
  • May 29, 2010 5:02am May 29, 2010 5:02am
Quoting dongsky
i only have a very limited understanding of this method (3 kingdoms), i couldn't find any explainations in the whole thread i tried my best to absorbed all info he's giving and i learned its co-relations during my trading experience, it was quite a while though.
i believe i saw somewhere in there that it was simply related to having on hand the 15min / 1hr / daily charts, or some other similar combination, and having their apparent trends visible in the event that you make a mess of the 1 / 5 min trades.

i mentioned quite recently that i thought perhaps all the 'spiral within spiral' questions people posed were possibly this, but was quickly informed that it was not and it was to do with money management instead... i did then stumble across later that it was simply having higher tf charts handy
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,668
  • May 29, 2010 5:24am May 29, 2010 5:24am
Quoting nubcake
heh....
Nub,

The thread was intended to teach both physical trading skills as well as the needed mental mindset to succeed over the long term in this business. Both are compared to as staging a war, as referenced in the book "Art of War" (Sūn Zǐ Bīng Fǎ).

I can tell someone that to trade mentally you need to be strong of mind and mentally resolute and determined, but it doesn't convey the same emotional understanding of the writers intentions compared to the visual presented in the material, if one would actually watch and read it. It was given in this context so a student could understand the authors intent.

Understanding the author's roots (Asian mixed with Martial Arts) will help in translating the material, as it is given in the terminology and language familiar with the Teacher.

A superficial reading of the thread will gain the individual very little in value, but with most things in life, tis not easy and you get out what you put in.
fwiw,
  • #15,669
  • May 29, 2010 5:35am May 29, 2010 5:35am
Quoting dongsky
does anybody here still remember fti's 3 kingdoms, can someone please help me understand what does it represent to my trading advantage...
Dong,

Fti, in the thread trades the Dollar.

The Dollar is broken down in it's relationships to the 3k's = Euro, Cable and Yen.

How these four interplay gives clues. When a dollar positional move is on it should be seen across the 3k's in tandem, when it's not yells something is wrong. Obviously the interplay will have strengths and weaknesses amongst the pairs, that can be used to your advantage.

Watch the charts simultaneously, it will become apparent after a while.

regards,
  • #15,670
  • May 29, 2010 5:40am May 29, 2010 5:40am


  • #15,671
  • May 29, 2010 5:42am May 29, 2010 5:42am
Quoting auxesis
Dong,

Fti, in the thread trades the Dollar.

The Dollar is broken down in it's relationships to the 3k's = Euro, Cable and Yen.

How these four interplay gives clues. When a dollar positional move is on it should be seen across the 3k's in tandem, when it's not yells something is wrong. Obviously the interplay will have strengths and weaknesses amongst the pairs, that can be used to your advantage.

Watch the charts simultaneously, it will become apparent after a while.

regards,

Hi Auxesis,

thanks for a very clear explaination of 3 kingdoms. a quick question, so what's the close relation of these 3 kingdom... when fti once mentioned that 1 kingdom is not alligned with the rest of the kingdom - so my question is, what does this implicates? what is the norm, i mean the normal behaviour of this kingdoms? and what do we need to expect if one or all the kingdoms not behaving as their normal?

sorry if i'm not so clear... but i tried my best

dongsky
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,672
  • May 29, 2010 5:46am May 29, 2010 5:46am
Quoting auxesis
Dong,

Fti, in the thread trades the Dollar.

The Dollar is broken down in it's relationships to the 3k's = Euro, Cable and Yen.

How these four interplay gives clues. When a dollar positional move is on it should be seen across the 3k's in tandem, when it's not yells something is wrong. Obviously the interplay will have strengths and weaknesses amongst the pairs, that can be used to your advantage.

Watch the charts simultaneously, it will become apparent after a while.

regards,
Hi Aux,

most of the time, EU, GU & UJ are very much alike. isn't it be EU & GU be similar and UJ must the other way? this i don't understand too?

dongsky
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,673
  • May 29, 2010 6:08am May 29, 2010 6:08am
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi Baifu,

I have to crawl before I can walk, and walk before I can run
Until I have learnt to put the pieces together there is no hurry to rush into battle.

I agree with you, my last piece come closer and I'll trade micro in the next 2 months(keep on saying that but this time is real). Rite now is training time - I'll be ready and much more confidence when I can manage to put all the pieces together. Then I'll fix real soul problem later in micro lot later.

Now is saving saving &...
Hi Pete,

Thank you for your kind words and well wishes. Mamood's performance is truly formidable

As for me I just want a method based on common sense and reason, confidence for me comes from understanding why something works. fti's teaching is like godsend, it is nothing but reason and common sense, and gems hidden in metaphors and ancient tales.

Rgs
Baifu
  • #15,674
  • May 29, 2010 6:11am May 29, 2010 6:11am
Quoting auxesis
Nub,

The thread was intended to teach both physical trading skills as well as the needed mental mindset to succeed over the long term in this business. Both are compared to as staging a war, as referenced in the book "Art of War" (Sūn Zǐ Bīng Fǎ).

I can tell someone that to trade mentally you need to be strong of mind and mentally resolute and determined, but it doesn't convey the same emotional understanding of the writers intentions compared to the visual presented in the material, if one would actually watch...
yes, i understand everything you have said. i already knew all of this... and if you think i haven't spent considerable time reading through here, and many other places then you are gravely mistaken. have you heard of a thing called information overload? ever heard of how fighter pilots sometimes don't even realize that a critical warning alarm is blaring in their ears simply due to all the other things they already have to pay attention to? this is what reading about trading is like a lot of the time. there are just not enough hours in the day to cover all bases.

why do you think it takes people so long to become profitable? do you suspect it might be because everyone begins with the handicap of knowing nothing exponentially made worse by the mountains of information / misinformation to sift through while having no 'reality anchor' to start with? i certainly do. what does any of this have to do with anything? well, like i have said taking analogies and pseudo-names too far is just furthering the problems of trying to learn anything knew. the tone of this thread is that of being helpful, yet it is so cryptic... which is typical and to be expected i guess.

quite frankly i have read a lot of what fti has said, as well as a lot of other people and so on... but in terms of this thread don't think i have skimmed it at all because i have spent time here like other places, but if a person such as myself who is not stupid and who has spent time reading this specific thread can flick to a recent or random page of this thread and read absolute gibberish that makes no sense to not only myself but a lot of people then does this indicate a problem with us or with the gibberish? sometimes i might read something cryptic here and when it clicks what is being said i shake my head and wonder why it couldn't have just been said straight because if my interpretation is actually correct then what was said was so... so nothing :S

and then you hear about posters speaking such complete nonsense and talking the talk being of grand wisdom and so on and playing by everyone's expectations and rules here... but are not even doing anything with real money and are playing games on demo with massive play-accounts. e-gurus lol. just like the armchair experts who know exactly what the pro-athlete should have done in this or that situation... hah, yeah right-on.

i think it's too late and it's all too far embedded within y'all to change now anyway. it's very clear the group here are satisfied with their situation, so that's fine then. so be it.

enough from me. enjoy.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,675
  • May 29, 2010 6:13am May 29, 2010 6:13am
Quoting dongsky
Hi Aux,

most of the time, EU, GU & UJ are very much alike. isn't it be EU & GU be similar and UJ must the other way? this i don't understand too?

dongsky
Dongsky,

I can't over emphasize the fact to "trade your chart". That being said, don't let the the 3k's become some type of crystal ball as sometimes pairs will lead each other.

Knowing what "wind of finance" is blowing on any given day, helps in their understand, as the markets are becoming intertwined. Hedge funds sell Dollars and Yen, using interest spreads to hedge and pay in other markets, example. A run on the Dow can cause both $ and Y to climb as trades and their hedges are taken off.

3k's in general.........

The inner relartionship of the pairs tells you who's weak and who's strong, and which way and who to play.

Main trades are will be against the Euro and Pound depending on their respected relationship. If I want to sell Dollars, would I want to sell them to the stronger or weaker of the pair, Euro/Pound?????

regards,
  • #15,676
  • May 29, 2010 6:23am May 29, 2010 6:23am
Quoting auxesis
Dongsky,

I can't over emphasize the fact to "trade your chart". That being said, don't let the the 3k's become some type of crystal ball as sometimes pairs will lead each other.

Knowing what "wind of finance" is blowing on any given day, helps in their understand, as the markets are becoming intertwined. Hedge funds sell Dollars and Yen, using interest spreads to hedge and pay in other markets, example. A run on the Dow can cause both $ and Y to climb as trades and their hedges are taken off.

3k's in general.........

The inner...
noted, thanks a lot
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,677
  • May 29, 2010 6:25am May 29, 2010 6:25am
Happy weekend to everyone! Hope you all had a good trading week. Looks like the news from Europe is still trending down, and the big news in the US is the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. From a trader's perspective, the question is how will these stories impact future growth around the world. Maybe we will get more information next week.

A holiday weekend in the US with Memorial Day on Monday. Hope you all have a great weekend, and good trading next week.
  • #15,678
  • May 29, 2010 6:27am May 29, 2010 6:27am
Quoting GEfx
Happy weekend to everyone! Hope you all had a good trading week. Looks like the news from Europe is still trending down, and the big news in the US is the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. From a trader's perspective, the question is how will these stories impact future growth around the world. Maybe we will get more information next week.

A holiday weekend in the US with Memorial Day on Monday. Hope you all have a great weekend, and good trading next week.
a good weekend to you too and your family GEFx.
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,679
  • May 29, 2010 6:32am May 29, 2010 6:32am
Quoting nubcake
1. Let's assume FTI is who FTI is believed to be. Seriously, for all I know you could all be unicorns posting on this forum from a different universe... so let's just take things at face value and move on to...
...........
5. Consider your own personal opportunities and stop being so locked-in to copying someone else. Lessons can be learned in different ways. Possibly better ways. You wouldn't learn english and maths the same way people did decades ago.

6. Demo trading with funds you don't have, and may never have, is folly. Not sure if you are...
Nubcake,
You know not what talk about.

Post #951 fti:
To improve skills, cut trading position to 20 units of position.
Choose a trend attempt, then trade the 20 positions one at a time. Dance with the flow.You will discover how, all I have shown you in AOW will assist in your ability to dance.

The objective, try to be profitable in all the 20 positions.

Then analyse your trading, figure how you may have improved by imposing skew. Do it again for a few times, change the skew. there are many lessons to learn , and the market will teach you. Best done in demo until you are good dancer.
…………….
Before you snowball, get your dance right, first.Learn to dance.
Do the exercise I asked Northpro to do.
You will find that you can dance better with the snowballing, then try to formulate a strategy that fits YOU. Don't carbon copy me. Be better than me.
But learn from experience that the market teaches you.
And keep learning what she teaches, the day you stop learning, is the day, she'll teach you painful lessons.”

I am not a good dancer – coming from mechanical methods I have problem getting the feel of dancing naked, but I followed part 2 “analyse your trading” religiously. From the start I replayed EVERY campaign in slow motion by entering every trade in Excel (hundreds of entries) and studied them next to charts (every day print outs of M1 in 3 hour periods 7:00-10:00, 10-13, 13-16, 16-19, M5, M15, higher TF when relevant). I relived high DD periods to see how and why I err in over exposure, where I should have fled when outnumbered, etc. I varied position sizing (ps) for the trades without changing other parameter and studied how returns / DD differ and was DUMBFOUNDED from start how ps change dramatically the quality of trades. Quality is not just raw return but return relative to DD, exposure etc.
AOW III ATTACK BY STRATAGEM
2. Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.”
I read this to mean use “weak point” and “strong point” to get $$$ without engaging in protracted battles using excessive exposures and suffering high DD.

After months of analysis and field practice I have the beginning formulation of MO and MM which is by no means a copy of fti or anyone else. (hm … can’t say because no one is discussing their MO and MM) I am still in grade school and cannot “skip to the left, skip to the right, reverse fib, break the phi skew with pi skew by factoring in range, volatility, speed etc. “ instead I have stuck fairly faithfully to the phi skew just to get used to the numbers, also because it suits my MO of keeping my troops close to market (current price) and not use zoom out geometric skew rescue (time constraint problem). As a side benefit I find integrating ps into my dance has helped me feel the pulse and get into the flow, I am still a poor dancer but am much better than when I started.

Quote: “5. ……..stop being so locked-in to copying someone else….. You wouldn't learn english and maths the same way people did decades ago”

Are you referring to the loop discussion on Tunnel Through the Air and Gann? I am not guilty there as I have no use for Gann’s astrology and geometry except I would like to point out different ppl travel different paths to learn, may be some tolerance is missing here?

Quote: “6. Demo trading with funds you don't have, and may never have, is folly. Not sure if you are doing this or not, but I get that feeling when you talk about how many troops you have in this epic battle waging in fantasy-land. What's the point in trying to learn how to trade to make profit with funds you don't have available and won't have available until you first starting making profit or win a lottery? You can't take a step forward until you figure-out first how to move your feet from their current position.”

You assume it is a fantasy million $$$ account because I use many troops, the first demo account started at €10,000 to match the initial real money assigned for this method (good idea borrowed from Auxesis), when the demo grew to over €29,000 after 34 campaigns I reset to €5000, halved because I decide to keep some reserve regiments, taking inspiration from

“Lesson 2 The Battlefield Components” posted by fti
“The equivalent to an army corps, according to Ssu-ma Fa,
consisted nominally of 12500 men;
according to Ts’ao Kung,
the equivalent of a regiment contained 500 men,
the equivalent to a detachment consists from any number between 100 and 500, and the equivalent of a company contains from 5 to 100 men.
For the last two, however, Chang Yu gives the exact figures of 100 and 5 respectively”

I know AOW is mindset and dance and not for taking literally, but these allocations sound reasonable as MM planning.

BTW €10,000 is school fee for practical training, what I eventually intend to use will depend on later developments, and if you have read the thread you would realize troop size is not important (apart from the pain thresholds of 100 lots or 0.1 lot) and should be optimized according to your capitalization, experience, expected reward and risk appetite. If I am not mistaken fti also used demo initially to strategize and optimize MM parameters.

Let me copy you by making some assumptions, such as the assumption you have not studied AOW

V. ENERGY

1. Sun Tzu said: The control of a large force
is the same principle as the control of a few men:
it is merely a question of dividing up their numbers.

2. Fighting with a large army under your command
is nowise different from fighting with a small one:
it is merely a question of instituting signs and signals.

3. To ensure that your whole host may withstand
the brunt of the enemy's attack and remain unshaken--
this is effected by maneuvers direct and indirect.

Furthermore since you are from down under may I assume you and your down under friend are seeing from down under 坐井觀天 Forgive me, I am copying fti again , let me withdraw this assumption at least. I apologize for my long post and uneven fonts, let’s just agree to disagree and focus instead on the paths our different perspectives lead us.

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #15,680
  • May 29, 2010 7:41am May 29, 2010 7:41am
Hi Baifu,

cut your bull... you talk big while you're not actually doing a live trade yet you must be kidding me...

i lost some, and win some but the most important thing is i'm still here and learning, i know one day i will shape up and be good in this business. this might be my 2 or 3rd post but hey, i've been reading this thread since early 2009 and have been trading LIVE since 2008 and struggling with this method

i can't wait to follow you on your live trading... would you be posting here your live trade, won't ya?

i think i can do the same what you're doing, copy paste from the thread from oh so long ago and put some of my thoughts about it and whoala! i make people believe i'm a trader and have the so called "edge" hahaha don't make me laugh my boy you're a fake! gotta go, i wanna see what's your comment bout this
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