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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,641
  • May 28, 2010 2:33pm May 28, 2010 2:33pm
What I am saying is, if the money is so small that it doesn't hurt, it's as useless as demo. Ant's work, pain threshold...agreed
  • #15,642
  • Edited May 29, 2010 4:57am May 28, 2010 3:19pm | Edited May 29, 2010 4:57am
Quoting luSan
I do not say that.
I just warned you to be careful
with jumping to conclusions when
your inner devils have not been engaged.
Of course, anyone is free to test to their heart content.

-I tested trading during the news several times
and I got severely burned.
I tested trading against the impulse
and my behind got deeply kicked.
etc.
Sometimes pain is the best teacher.

Regarding the off topic...
nothing is off topic for me if it is about trading
even though I do not write much here anymore.

Happy trading, my friend,
Now
I am going back to my...
You have shared your trader journey here and in your journal and occasionally got whipped for it (always took it like a man and a gentleman though ), I have benefited from your openness in sharing your trials, tribulations and triumphs.

The conclusions I am jumping to is I cannot dance without actively engaging my spies and troops, whether I can dance successfully with them using real money is another story and I appreciate your warning coming from real experience.

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #15,643
  • May 28, 2010 3:41pm May 28, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
What I am saying is, if the money is so small that it doesn't hurt, it's as useless as demo. Ant's work, pain threshold...agreed
we are all in agreement
  • #15,644
  • May 28, 2010 3:48pm May 28, 2010 3:48pm
Quoting Baifu
we are all in agreement
Good
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #15,645
  • May 28, 2010 4:11pm May 28, 2010 4:11pm
Yes in agreement. Have a great weekend everybody.
  • #15,646
  • May 28, 2010 4:33pm May 28, 2010 4:33pm
each to themselves?
  • #15,647
  • May 28, 2010 4:48pm May 28, 2010 4:48pm
... nice and interesting article written by
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/...rket-79810.cfm
  • #15,648
  • May 28, 2010 5:09pm May 28, 2010 5:09pm
Quoting Gro
... nice and interesting article written by
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/...rket-79810.cfm
Maybe this?

http://vodpod.com/watch/2324248-meta...-star-of-david

or something inbetween?
  • #15,649
  • May 28, 2010 5:32pm May 28, 2010 5:32pm
Here is my weekend reading contribution. Sounds familiar for some reason. LOL

http://www.sfomag.com/ArticlePrint.aspx?ID=598

Some tidbits

"Why do most traders lose money even when they follow all the proper rules? – Because markets rarely offer a smooth trend. Instead, they usually thrust and retrace frequently, spooking traders out of what eventually turn out to be profitable positions. As a result, traders are beaten by maddening runs of constant stop outs. According to famous trading coach David Landry, a series of small stops often can add up to be bigger a loss than a large stop."

"And on the opposite side of most of retail transactions are professional traders known as dealers. One of the main reasons prices tend to back and fill in almost all financial instruments is because when customers are buying, dealers are selling and vice versa. Dealers make their profits from the small retraces in price by quickly unloading their newly acquired inventory. "

"Unlike regular retail traders, dealers usually follow two maxims: Always be fading, and never trust the first price. The fact that dealers usually are on the opposite side of price action really should come as no surprise when one realizes that 80 percent of the time markets are range-bound – and, therefore, retrace the original move. "

"Successful market makers have controlled the ego-based need to be absolutely correct. Because markets are constantly in motion, it is almost impossible to be exactly right on (in your entries).” Such a probative approach to the markets is at the heart of most successful professional trading. Dealers know full well that their first foray into the trade is often wrong. They rarely commit the full position amount on the first try."

"One of the key differences between professionals and amateurs is that professionals scale into trades while amateurs average down. This statement may seem like clever wordplay, but it’s not. Let’s assume that both the professional and the amateur decide to risk two percent of their capital account on a particular trade. The professional knows full well that he will not be able to hit the exact entry point on his first attempt. Therefore, he may allocate only 0.3% of his capital to the first entry, 0.6% on the second and 1.2% to the third – and stop himself out at -2.7% away from original entry price (-2% risk).

On the other hand, the amateur will plow in with a full two-percent position, and then when the trade goes against him, he may decide to “double down again” and then average in yet a third time. At this point, the amateur has committed six percent of his capital to the trade, and if the trade continues to move against him, he will throw in his towel with a massive -12% loss (sum of -6%,-4% and -2% losses). Five disasters like that and the amateur loses 60 percent of his account. In a zero-sum game, he has just moved much closer to zero."


"This example serves to illustrate one of the greatest pieces of trading advice ever given. When asked by Jack Schwager what is the one act most traders must do to become successful, Bruce Kovner – perhaps the greatest hedge fund manager ever and a man who has beaten the markets for more than 30 years and to whom other hedge fund managers entrust their savings – simply said,” Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade.” Prodded further by Schwager, he explained, “Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half. My experience with novice traders is that they trade three to five times too big. They are taking five- to ten-percent risks on a trade when they should be risking one- to two-percent.”"
  • #15,650
  • May 28, 2010 6:49pm May 28, 2010 6:49pm
hi all,

i am new and so excited to find this thread. i hope i can find assistance i just opened a live account after i had a successful 3months demo account and now i believe i'm ready to do it live. I like your concept here that TA is a fallacy... but how can i tell the thrend or where it's going without my indicators, as what most of you suggesting here.

can anybody help?
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  • #15,651
  • Edited 10:43pm May 28, 2010 7:19pm | Edited 10:43pm
Hi Baifu,

I have to crawl before I can walk, and walk before I can run
Until I have learnt to put the pieces together there is no hurry to rush into battle.

I agree with you, my last piece come closer and I'll trade micro in the next 2 months(keep on saying that but this time is real). Rite now is training time - I'll be ready and much more confidence when I can manage to put all the pieces together. Then I'll fix real soul problem later in micro lot later.

Now is saving saving & saving for the real & big battle "saving while learning". Thanks for Lusan comment I know you meant good but we are not ready yet.

I want to be as close as Mamood standard but I know not in the near future(Nov or Dec last year Mamood made more than 300% in a month and recently he made 120% within a day only 8hrs battle what a great trader Mamood is) and I do not expect to be at Fti's level yet that's going a long long road journey.

ppls always have a big dreams.

Baifu - As I read your many comments(specially Fti's comments) - I've learnt a lot from you too.

And for sure you are going to be a great trader one day and soon.

Rgds,
  • #15,652
  • May 28, 2010 11:34pm May 28, 2010 11:34pm
Quoting luSan
My friend, I have been watching your demo's.
And I am puzzled.
I know that you are aware that real learning
starts when money is on the table.
Until then,
Forex is just a computer game.
Real trading starts when the trader soul
is engaged in the fight
and
this only happens when
there is money on the table.
If so...start very small
because the inner devils will get activated
and you will not be able to deploy the full army
as you did in many of your tests.
-Which a terrible idea!-

Fear and terror on a 5 % DD.
Fear and terror when...
Hi Lusan,

you are correct! if may i add,

to each is own, but i believe (based in my trading experience) even if you have x millions capital it's not doable to trade the way Baifu's experimental trades... just way too much for a normal trader to handle.

my opinion (if ask ) instead of honing your skills and getting ready for the real battle, dissaster is imminent. i know not until one's reached the bridge, they cannot decide wether to cross it or not - not until you're INTO IT then you will learn valuable things like what fti's keep reminding all of us here. I for one, learned the right way from a very stressfull, hard and costly way.

well, my apologies but i'm just a newbie.

i wish old times comes back to life where most of TFA followers (here) will come back to their senses and start to put this thread into its shape where everybody must discuss fti's teachings... attacks, rescues, monk, scorpions, egor, MO, MM, AOW... dancing, long legged ladies, heavy tops, Mtop, W bottom...

instead of proving to oneself that they got the real meaning when fti mention "spiral withinspiral", "as above so below"... geez but it's all off thetopics my friend. at least let's show fti some respect and gratitude. all i can see in this thread now a lately is but egor, and it persistenly prevails.

SCORPION your king!!!!

again if i offended somebody, million apologies to you my friend.

i don't know for some here but i am very grateful for fti for he had given me a treasure money cannot buy... thanks fti and as my appresiation, i will practice everyday till i retire.

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,653
  • May 28, 2010 11:55pm May 28, 2010 11:55pm
Hi guys,

i know after my last post here, there will be a lot of disgruntled people will storm me with insults and egocentric replies but oh well, i'm used to be in the dark and the worst situation one could ever possibly think - give me your best shot hahahaha.

fti once said, "if you want to get your discipline right, damage is part of the battle, recovery is essential, victory is the objective. for every trade. win enough small battles and tweak your mindset then go win the war "

he also said that the problem with many traders is that most of them were successful in some form of their career or business before embarking in trading for a living. This success tends to have seeded the EGO problem, while the development of confidence maybe completed on personality profile, over confidence maybe a side-effect of that training.

sorry guys, i'm just reflecting here

if you're the person who post on this thread just for the sake of posting (absurd topic ) why not open your own thread. talking a lot doesn't prove one's intellect. wisdom comes from within, knowledge can be learned we need to be humble and respect others... at least.

is it about time to put this thread back to right course, for the sake of newbies like me who wants to learn.
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,654
  • May 29, 2010 12:02am May 29, 2010 12:02am
Quoting Baifu
Agreed when real money is on the table it is another ball game, but one step at a time - even fti started with demo when he switched to retail

Rgs
Baifu

Edit: Agreed demo account does not count (definitely not in manhood test ) but can be valuable as learning and testing tool.
Am I to deduce nobody else explores skew, demo or real money? Or is this off topic?
1. Let's assume FTI is who FTI is believed to be. Seriously, for all I know you could all be unicorns posting on this forum from a different universe... so let's just take things at face value and move on to...

2. FTI at a bank and their trading terminals and available funding /= FTI at home trading on MT4 or whatever chosen poison.

3. It only makes sense that he would demo trade to become used to the new trading terminal and especially the changed available funding. It'd be like going from driving a tank in a field to driving a moped in a foreign country... takes some getting used to, no?

4. Also, FTI may not be aware of anything in the realm of vhands and other such backtesting EA's. Just because he spends 1 day, 2 days, 3 years, whatever, demo'ing doesn't mean you can't do it a different way.

5. Consider your own personal opportunities and stop being so locked-in to copying someone else. Lessons can be learned in different ways. Possibly better ways. You wouldn't learn english and maths the same way people did decades ago.

6. Demo trading with funds you don't have, and may never have, is folly. Not sure if you are doing this or not, but I get that feeling when you talk about how many troops you have in this epic battle waging in fantasy-land. What's the point in trying to learn how to trade to make profit with funds you don't have available and won't have available until you first starting making profit or win a lottery? You can't take a step forward until you figure-out first how to move your feet from their current position.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,655
  • May 29, 2010 12:06am May 29, 2010 12:06am
Quoting edison0120
hi all,

i am new and so excited to find this thread. i hope i can find assistance i just opened a live account after i had a successful 3months demo account and now i believe i'm ready to do it live. I like your concept here that TA is a fallacy... but how can i tell the thrend or where it's going without my indicators, as what most of you suggesting here.

can anybody help?

is this a JOKE??? at least read first few pages of this thread before posting your thoughts...
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,656
  • May 29, 2010 12:09am May 29, 2010 12:09am
Quoting nubcake
1. Let's assume FTI is who FTI is believed to be. Seriously, for all I know you could all be unicorns posting on this forum from a different universe... so let's just take things at face value and move on to...

2. FTI at a bank and their trading terminals and available funding /= FTI at home trading on MT4 or whatever chosen poison.

3. It only makes sense that he would demo trade to become used to the new trading terminal and especially the changed available funding. It'd be like going from driving a tank in a field to driving a moped in a foreign...
Very well said my friend way to go!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,657
  • Edited 12:15am May 29, 2010 12:10am | Edited 12:15am
Quoting dongsky
Hi guys,

i know after my last post here, there will be a lot of disgruntled people will storm me with insults and egocentric replies but oh well, i'm used to be in the dark and the worst situation one could ever possibly think - give me your best shot hahahaha.

fti once said, "if you want to get your discipline right, damage is part of the battle, recovery is essential, victory is the objective. for every trade. win enough small battles and tweak your mindset then go win the war "

he also said that the problem with many traders is that...
dongsky you provide a perfect example of something that bothers me greatly. everyone is too damn scared! if you have something to say then say it. so many posts ooze the fact that the poster is trying to say something but is expending a lot of effort tip-toeing around so as not to get cast from the inner-circle and forever be an outcast looking-in with envy. paralyzed with fear that they will rock the boat and create a ripple.

:/

edit : "you" refers to "everyone in general". not "YOU DONGSKY YOU WEAK WEAK PERSON I HATE YOU I HATE YOU FOR BEING WEAK". felt i needed to clarify that now that i read it back, and now i also feel i'm doing the opposite of what i just said above... or not... i said what i wanted to say, but needed to unfocus what seemed to be directly at one person and was merely observation of the general trend of the herd. fin.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,658
  • May 29, 2010 12:19am May 29, 2010 12:19am
Quoting nubcake
dongsky you provide a perfect example of something that bothers me greatly. everyone is too damn scared! if you have something to say then say it. so many posts ooze the fact that the poster is trying to say something but is expending a lot of effort tip-toeing around so as not to get cast from the inner-circle and forever be an outcast looking-in with envy. paralyzed with fear that they will rock the boat and create a ripple.

:/
nubcake my friend,

one should say enough is enough, i for one benefited from this thread and i cannot take anymore bull... or any other peoples crap being posted here mate. why should people need to be scared to say what they feel honestly?

i don't care what might other people here thinks of me, for i am now a confident trader - fti way.

i just don't like the way this thread is heading... why not those few clowns open their own thread and share their own crap amongst themselves.

let's respect all the new traders (learners too) at least by not "mis-leading" this thread, they will be pointed to the right direction.

can we please be modest enough and at least respect this thread; let's rock the boat and feel the ripples can we discuss MO, MM and dancing again... probably rescue sequence ???
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,659
  • May 29, 2010 12:19am May 29, 2010 12:19am
Quoting nubcake
dongsky you provide a perfect example of something that bothers me greatly. everyone is too damn scared! if you have something to say then say it. so many posts ooze the fact that the poster is trying to say something but is expending a lot of effort tip-toeing around so as not to get cast from the inner-circle and forever be an outcast looking-in with envy. paralyzed with fear that they will rock the boat and create a ripple.

:/

edit : "you" refers to "everyone in general". not "YOU DONGSKY YOU WEAK WEAK PERSON I HATE YOU I HATE YOU FOR...
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,660
  • May 29, 2010 12:22am May 29, 2010 12:22am
i'm not sure of others here, but one thing's for sure, most of those learned and original members/ posters here already shoo away from this thread and hybernate because they're too prudent to tell people that this thread is going way beyond its original course - fti's teaching.
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
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