TAF Based Trade Discussions

Fana,

Everyone of those corrections, started with the formation of a base. A low being put in and then retested and held. Until that happens you do not know the low is in, regardless if it falls on a fib extension or not. It would make sense that something would happen here, but this is a level to take profits, not necessarily start a trade, unless PA shows it, it hasn't yet....... you're trying to catch the falling knife.

When the market is scared there's no safe levels.

You are projecting your views and wants, instead of letting the chart speak.

Auxesis. Yes, i have to stop predicting markets... Thank you.

just looking over the thread.
I agree as I look at the yearly time frame which is the primary trend.

e/u yearly
6083
4230
2377

In my head today was the thought that we would continue this weeks southern trip and finish off a long weekly red candle. Sitting on my hands waiting for some sign of selling opportunity, after CPI #'s were released, the Euro shot up and then completely retraced forming a small descending wedge, I felt it starting to break south so I entered my scout with a +2 second level.

Took one of the adds off quickly as it penetrated the prior low, ( looking back maybe the poke wasn't strong enough to count as confirmation, more or a spring bar).

As price started to pull back I dumped the other add at BE and watched as price pulled back to a higher frame trend line that had given several reversals prior. When price gave a good candle signal, I hit hard with a +3 2nd wave looking to add a 3rd wave on what I though was going to be a run for the daily lows as my average flirted the positive, a few minutes later price blew back out the top as I killed both the adds and the scout.

In retrospect a leveraged flip was possible, but I didn't feel good about going north today, although the PA ( with the exception of that poke low that formed ( a wash and rinse for bulls and trap for bears) was all north.

fwiw, a small sour note to end the week.

...Still short setup, but... Bernanke...

Fana,

Don't put on a bias just because Bernanke is speaking, price has been in a break and run mode, with a little longer runs on the bear side. Scale down the size, if your caught against the next unknown move it might sweep you away.

Yes, thank you, i go short with scout...1,3548.

Be prepared to flip or rescue if it starts going north

Yes... I am carefull, now i observe that gu is going down, but eur holds...

now I wonder if everybody has moved on to another journal, hehe.

auxesis, you are the man! always a pleasure to read.

regards,

Today i am in profit, but close trades too early.....

Work on the timing, but profit is profit. It's hard when you start to learn to ride, the market is great at playing with your emotions if you let it. It will squeeze your entries, specially if your late... as it will back up for more participants, but it will make you feel like you just missed the start and need to jump on board or you will miss it (break out traders are prone to this).

Enter too early and your waiting for it to turn and you will feel like your gambling and prone to abandon early with little profit.

Always the battle of cutting profits too quick, fear of loss.

So work on taking some profit to cover, (think AOW and foraging for supplies) once you have some profit to cover the remainder against the back side of your trade work on staying with the remaining position until it breaks new ground. (don't let the remaining position go negative more than the profits earned) General rule of thumb the impulse pushes will be similar in length. Timing the pushes can help if one is faster or slower, spikes normally exhaustion, flat moves lose steam over time, if you can spot a channel, most of the move will be done in a few bars of the overall swing.

Just keep working at it Fana, it will get easier.

regards

Today also some work... In profit 2%+ again, but problem with timing...

My first scout and L1 i took profit, so i felt comfortable following trades...

Just beware the last few days of July, first few days of August..... Big Planetary Cardinal Cross, markets run amok.

See how that fits into everyone's game plan.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/23...an-sky-watcher

Auxesis,

it alwasy good to read your comments...


V

PS: thanks for the vouch

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...h-holiday.html US

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...h-cooling.html China

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...t-concern.html Asian Stocks & Spain

auxesis,
do u continue to trade (what i call) 'esoteric' stuff along with fti's teachings?

Thanks!

Yes. But instead of outlining a trade with R:R, stops, targets and rolling the dice..... I'll trade PA with that bias as long as it cooperates. Most of what I did before I stumbled across the TAF thread I still do but I have just augmented my MM. Scaling into a trade is old hat, scaling into an attack was something missing from my toolbox. Im much less concerned with exact entries nowadays, as long as I have the direction correct.

regards,

5th dimension,




One less bell to answer

IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America,
When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
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He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
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He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
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For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
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For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
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He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
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He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
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