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  • #1,981
  • May 27, 2010 9:33am May 27, 2010 9:33am
Break or retrace...I hope a break to help my AJ and UJ trades.
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  • #1,982
  • May 27, 2010 9:45am May 27, 2010 9:45am
lj, when you take the ppz break trades, you pull the trigger when? by how many pips do you like to see the break? and do you trade these breaks on 5-15m time frames and therefore wait for candle close above the breaks before taking a trade?
  • #1,983
  • May 27, 2010 9:47am May 27, 2010 9:47am
Quoting coolshades
lj, when you take the ppz break trades, you pull the trigger when? by how many pips do you like to see the break? and do you trade these breaks on 5-15m time frames and therefore wait for candle close above the breaks before taking a trade?
Depends on the pair..I look for the lowest wick (if taking a short) then add 5-10 pips to it.

I dont normally go down to the 5min just take it on 1HR or 4HR and place trade 5-10 pips below the lowest wick low within the PPZ
  • #1,984
  • May 27, 2010 9:52am May 27, 2010 9:52am
lj,

h4 on NU attached. i presume 6820 shd be a ppz on your charts too. so you would be looking for a break of the current candle (which is the highest candle) by 5-10 pips to go long right?

and your sls are based on?

Quoting lovejoy80
Depends on the pair..I look for the lowest wick (if taking a short) then add 5-10 pips to it.

I dont normally go down to the 5min just take it on 1HR or 4HR and place trade 5-10 pips below the lowest wick low within the PPZ
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  • #1,985
  • May 27, 2010 9:52am May 27, 2010 9:52am
Right...with Dow at resistance and retraces occuring on my EC,GA and EA trades its a good time to end for the day and week.

Closed all trades and put them in my spreadsheet, stats for the week:

49 trades
63% win rate
Account growth +15.26%

Getting back to double digit weekly growth and all whilst risking less than normal and being more picky. I am to continue with my current style of trading but will start risking more per trade like I did before (2-3%) rather than the current average of 1%.

Good trading to all...I'll be in and out tomorrow so will take a glance at some charts and post anything I like on here but wont be taking any trades myself.
  • #1,986
  • May 27, 2010 9:57am May 27, 2010 9:57am
Quoting coolshades
lj,

h4 on NU attached. i presume 6820 shd be a ppz on your charts too. so you would be looking for a break of the current candle (which is the highest candle) by 5-10 pips to go long right?

and your sls are based on?
Yeah that area is a daily PPZ.

I wouldnt say I would be overly keen on taking a long above there though as its not a well defined range like AU, AJ and GU were for example, plus there is some immediate trouble ahead. But if I were then year probably 5pips + spread above that bar. With regards SL, its discretionary for me when trading a breakout...I ask myself how far would it have to go for me to consider that the breakout was a false breakout.

When playing breakouts aggresively like this I'm looking for price to run on and not look back...I'm looking for buyers to come in and take it up fast...thus if it retraced below I'd be quick to cut.

But personally I wouldnt take that as there were much clearer breakout setups on other xxx/usd pairs.
  • #1,987
  • May 27, 2010 9:58am May 27, 2010 9:58am
Quoting lovejoy80

Good trading to all...I'll be in and out tomorrow so will take a glance at some charts and post anything I like on here but wont be taking any trades myself.
If we do not hear from you tomorrow than I wish you a nice vacation, you deserve it. Thanks for your work with thsi Journal and your help.

P:S are we allowed to use your pages during your absence ?
  • #1,988
  • May 27, 2010 10:01am May 27, 2010 10:01am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yeah that area is a daily PPZ.

I wouldnt say I would be overly keen on taking a long above there though as its not a well defined range like AU, AJ and GU were for example, plus there is some immediate trouble ahead. But if I were then year probably 5pips + spread above that bar. With regards SL, its discretionary for me when trading a breakout...I ask myself how far would it have to go for me to consider that the breakout was a false breakout.

When playing breakouts aggresively like this I'm looking for price to run on and not look back...I'm...
Another thing I sometimes do like I did on AJ is to put a small test postion out...thus thought it would break thus risked 0.5% as a test position and then can look to add if indeed it does continue up with the high momentum i'm looking for.

Another point on SL....if there is an obious collection of bar lows within the 'range' then I'd also put it below there..as per chart below this is where I put my SL on AJ.
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  • #1,989
  • May 27, 2010 10:18am May 27, 2010 10:18am
got out of echf short with -0.5% loss, noticed the consolidation....seemed like demand taking over & decided to move sl above bar break.....good decision on my part
only trade today= - 0.5%
Simplicity is the key to success
  • #1,990
  • May 27, 2010 10:52am May 27, 2010 10:52am
Great week LJ, enjoy your vacation.
  • #1,991
  • May 28, 2010 1:30am May 28, 2010 1:30am
Morning Folks,

Just took a glancing look at my charts....YM is at an interesting place 10250 PPZ. 50 fib and falling TL...

Oil has the same confluence too @ 75 area.

I'd keep buying Gold or keep hold of gold until 1226 area or a break of the rising 4HR TL

UJ also has another confluenced setup for a short and EU is closng on the falling TL / channel for a short opportunity too.
  • #1,992
  • May 28, 2010 1:32am May 28, 2010 1:32am
Morning

TP on oil (75.0) got triggered last night. Very pleased with it, 380 pips. It gives a bit of buffer for further mistakes. LOL
  • #1,993
  • May 28, 2010 1:36am May 28, 2010 1:36am
BTW 75 was the target because it is a point of a possible reversal. There is already a DBHLC on H4
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  • #1,994
  • May 28, 2010 1:59am May 28, 2010 1:59am
Quoting ogeid
Morning

TP on oil (75.0) got triggered last night. Very pleased with it, 380 pips. It gives a bit of buffer for further mistakes. LOL
Good job. I'm still busting my balls for that... And I'm going to bust them again for the EU trade I closed.

Need to stick to the rules.
  • #1,995
  • May 28, 2010 2:05am May 28, 2010 2:05am
Ok, here it is. I'm not a doomsday witch hunter, but my last S&P long term analysis was something like this, but in the mean time there was a quick retrace above 1150 that didn't hold.

Next, I guess we'll go for something like this. Keep in mind that markets fall harder than they rise, so the right shoulder will be more violent than the left one.

Of course, if 1150 doesn't present us with hard cold facts (like obvious resistance, hard rejection of price etc.) than this falls. But there are a lot of signs pointing us that it won't be the case.
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  • #1,996
  • May 28, 2010 2:07am May 28, 2010 2:07am
One thing I did was to reduce my position sizing. This allows me to use larger SL and manage them without being scared and risking to chicken out potential runners.

I just feel more comfortable because my $ risk is within a sustainable psyco level. Will see a long I am going to stick to it LOL.

Euro seems the strongest currency this morning.
  • #1,997
  • May 28, 2010 2:09am May 28, 2010 2:09am
Quoting ogeid
BTW 75 was the target because it is a point of a possible reversal. There is already a DBHLC on H4
And 2 fibs and 365. A looot of confluence.
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  • #1,998
  • May 28, 2010 2:11am May 28, 2010 2:11am
Quoting ogeid
One thing I did was to reduce my position sizing. This allows me to use larger SL and manage them without being scared and risking to chicken out potential runners.

I just feel more comfortable because my $ risk is within a sustainable psyco level. Will see a long I am going to stick to it LOL.

Euro seems the strongest currency this morning.
I'm on demo, so 'money' at risk shouldn't matter, because I have no attachment to it. It's more like the fear of being wrong that makes me make mistakes... And that's something hard to work on, but needs to be done.
  • #1,999
  • May 28, 2010 2:14am May 28, 2010 2:14am
Quoting ogeid
BTW 75 was the target because it is a point of a possible reversal. There is already a DBHLC on H4
Add some fibs and a TL on H4...scroll down to 1H and note the divergence...pull the trigger
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  • #2,000
  • May 28, 2010 2:16am May 28, 2010 2:16am
Quoting neutro
Ok, here it is. I'm not a doomsday witch hunter, but my last S&P long term analysis was something like this, but in the mean time there was a quick retrace above 1150 that didn't hold.

Next, I guess we'll go for something like this. Keep in mind that markets fall harder than they rise, so the right shoulder will be more violent than the left one.

Of course, if 1150 doesn't present us with hard cold facts (like obvious resistance, hard rejection of price etc.) than this falls. But there are a lot of signs pointing us that it won't be the case.
Dont follow S&P...but this looks like a great setup...will add it to my watchlist now.
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