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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #361
  • Edited 6:18pm May 25, 2010 6:06pm | Edited 6:18pm
Quoting GoldenGold
Hi Amyc,
Your journal has been a great learning source for me. Thanks a lot for sharing your views.

I'm not familiar with bar charts, can you tell me when you say green highs, did you mean 8464? or 85+?
8464 as a first target, but that number is not fixed in stone until gmt midnight, I can repost the chart then if you are interested.
  • #362
  • May 25, 2010 6:11pm May 25, 2010 6:11pm
EU, I am still waiting for EU to move up further before I short it, I want it to at least touch the blue midpoints, this week or next week. Next week is June and a scenario that plays out often is that late in the month price will try to move back towards the next months pp and then fall in the first week of the month. This is currently sitting at 1.2612 (yellow line) which also matches with next weeks weekly highs (pink).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 25 KB
  • #363
  • May 25, 2010 6:16pm May 25, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting amyc
What do you mean to determine the probability? To determine the targets I use the calculations I have shown last week. To determine the probability each setup has of playing out I have worked that out myself by going through each setup on the charts under different market conditions for that last few years.
Thanks, amyc. I mean, when you say that there is a 90% chance that AU will hit .8019 this week, how do you get the figure?...

Thanks again!
  • #364
  • May 25, 2010 6:49pm May 25, 2010 6:49pm
Quoting epeks
Thanks, amyc. I mean, when you say that there is a 90% chance that AU will hit .8019 this week, how do you get the figure?...

Thanks again!
I get that figure from going back through the chart over the past few years and working out how often the pattern completes successfully.
  • #365
  • May 25, 2010 7:49pm May 25, 2010 7:49pm
Quoting amyc
AU reversed off 8070, that is not suprising since it was a 80 pip low and 140 pip low both with supports, this usually pushes the market back up 140 pips, but in this case it is doing 2 140 pip bars up. Around 8330 will start to provide shorting opportunities again, keep in mind that there is a 90% chance price will see 8019 before the week closes.
Great stuff Amy!
  • #366
  • May 25, 2010 8:27pm May 25, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting Saxon
Great stuff Amy!
Thanks Saxon, same to you.
  • #367
  • Edited 1:10am May 26, 2010 12:52am | Edited 1:10am
Au, 4hr close under the midpoint, I have taken a short off 8248 with a stop above the current high.
Couldn't post the chart earlier as my price feed went down for the last hour.

Edit, this is a lower probability trade than I normally take and will probably get stopped out but the risk reward is there so I took it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 9 KB
  • #368
  • May 26, 2010 3:34am May 26, 2010 3:34am
stopped for -20 pips.
  • #369
  • Edited 6:45pm May 26, 2010 6:17pm | Edited 6:45pm
AU, this pair provided an ideal short off 8386 but i wasn't around to take it. Price should continue down into at least 8162 on Thursday due to the open under the daily pp. I will be looking at shorts off the 8275 area. Still targeting 8019 before the end of the week.

I grabbed some shorts off the dp but have orders for more if it moves back up into 8275, stops for all at 8285.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #370
  • May 26, 2010 6:49pm May 26, 2010 6:49pm
EU should continue lower on Thursday to at least 1.2133, but I am going to see if it moves back towards the daily pivot point first.
Attached Image
  • #371
  • May 26, 2010 8:25pm May 26, 2010 8:25pm
Shorts added to au at 8275, I'm hoping that was the top of the retrace. Price now needs a 4hr close below 8239 to confirm that. Stops above the current highs. TP open for now.
  • #372
  • Edited 10:32pm May 26, 2010 10:16pm | Edited 10:32pm
Closed aud shorts at be, looks to be going higher for now. I'm not sure if I will trade again this week, I think markets are going to continue consolidating until the start of June, once June starts then there are new targets and usually a strong trend to either the monthly highs or lows in the first week. Currently the euro is pointing to 1.19 in June and au 79, but both pairs will probably break these levels and continue lower into July due to Q2 breakouts.
  • #373
  • May 26, 2010 11:48pm May 26, 2010 11:48pm
EU has crossed back over the midpoints at 1.2259 on the chart I posted earlier, this is looking like it has potential to be the start of a move back into the blue midpoints and monthly pp (yellow) to align with the start of June. As long as it is under the monthly pp on 1 June this will provide an ideal swing high. fingers crossed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 21 KB
  • #374
  • May 27, 2010 12:18am May 27, 2010 12:18am
ES, still waiting for a move back to the midpoints on ES as shown in LH chart. That can be either this week at 1117 or next week at 1109. Thursday looks like it has potential for a move up towards the green highs at 1091, RH chart. This is the same setup as the euro.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es.GIF Size: 20 KB
  • #375
  • May 27, 2010 12:38am May 27, 2010 12:38am
I have decided to close out all my aud shorts at 8300 +660 pips.

I wanted to hold these but if I think that the indicies are going up and I think that the euro is going up then based on the position of the euraud which now looks bearish again it makes no sense to hold them as the aud should go up further than the euro on any up move.

I have now surpassed my profit goal I set at the beginning of the year.
  • #376
  • May 27, 2010 12:47am May 27, 2010 12:47am
Quoting amyc
I have decided to close out all my aud shorts at 8300 +660 pips.

I wanted to hold these but if I think that the indicies are going up and I think that the euro is going up then based on the position of the euraud which now looks bearish again it makes no sense to hold them as the aud should go up further than the euro on any up move.

I have now surpassed my profit goal I set at the beginning of the year.
congratulations amyc, i presume that's a huge milestone for you
  • #377
  • May 27, 2010 12:53am May 27, 2010 12:53am
Quoting OvT
congratulations amyc, i presume that's a huge milestone for you
Thanks OVT, i'm pretty happy right now, hopefully i don't wake up tomorrow to see everything went down.
  • #378
  • May 27, 2010 4:34am May 27, 2010 4:34am
Great going, still continue to be most impressed. From my calcs it seems that traditional R1 and S1 pivot supports are very close to the 50% fib extension and R2 and S2 pivots are close to the 61.8% fib extensions. Does this seem about right to you, and if so why your pref for fib extensions, I presume it fits your trading and testing. Also, really dumb question but what is ES ?

Also how do you calculate the next pp yet as don't have the close for this month yet?

Congrats again, and like you I agree should be going up for a bit, but I'm not a counter trend trader so time to add to EURAUD and sit on my hands.
  • #379
  • May 27, 2010 5:46pm May 27, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting drandycollings
Great going, still continue to be most impressed. From my calcs it seems that traditional R1 and S1 pivot supports are very close to the 50% fib extension and R2 and S2 pivots are close to the 61.8% fib extensions. Does this seem about right to you, and if so why your pref for fib extensions, I presume it fits your trading and testing. Also, really dumb question but what is ES ?

Also how do you calculate the next pp yet as don't have the close for this month yet?

Congrats again, and like you I agree should be going up for a bit, but I'm not...
The S1 and R1 calcs do tend to be close to my calcs at times but I use the fibs bc I found them to have higher probability as a support resistance.
ES is the S&P500 futures, ES is its code I just call it that so people don't confuse it with the cash market, it's not a dumb question I bet others didn't know what I was on about either.

Next months pp calculation I have is using the current price as the close, so it moves around with the price movements until the close of the month. I find it very useful to have in advance as you have a fairly good idea of whether price will be moving up or down in the next month.
  • #380
  • May 27, 2010 5:56pm May 27, 2010 5:56pm
No trades for me today as everything should move up further on Friday and probably close the week on its highs.
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