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future t3ma

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 5, 2010 11:14am Mar 5, 2010 11:14am
Hi at everyone,

i'm studying a way to predict the future value of the t3 moving avarage...

i will only able to predict only 1 step forward with a precision of 99.9%...

what can i do if will do that??
  • #2
  • Mar 5, 2010 11:25am Mar 5, 2010 11:25am
Let me be the first to congratulate you on being able to see the future.

Do you mind explaining how you propose to carry out this supernatural act ?
  • #3
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:11pm Mar 5, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting FX Compass
Let me be the first to congratulate you on being able to see the future.

Do you mind explaining how you propose to carry out this supernatural act ?
that isn't a joke i'll able to predict only one step forward..with a high precision degree... but i can understand what i can do with this prediction...
  • #4
  • Mar 5, 2010 12:27pm Mar 5, 2010 12:27pm
I'm not joking.

For those that don't know this is what the T3 moving average is :

The T3 Moving Average was described by Tim Tillson in the January, 1998 issue of 'Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities' article "Smoothing Techniques for More Accurate Signals". The T3 is a significant improvement over traditional moving averages; it's smoother with much less lag. However, it can "overshoot" price as it attempts to re-align itself with current market prices.

Now I ask you again, how do you predict its future movements ?
  • #5
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:06pm Mar 5, 2010 1:06pm
Quoting FX Compass
I'm not joking.

For those that don't know this is what the T3 moving average is :

The T3 Moving Average was described by Tim Tillson in the January, 1998 issue of 'Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities' article "Smoothing Techniques for More Accurate Signals". The T3 is a significant improvement over traditional moving averages; it's smoother with much less lag. However, it can "overshoot" price as it attempts to re-align itself with current market prices.

Now I ask you again, how do you predict its future movements ?
i'll use a statistical and probability study that can gives me that result....on the paper by now but i'll traslate all into mq4 code....

now i tell you how i can use this prediction??
  • #6
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:08pm Mar 5, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting andrea182
...........................
.......... but i can understand what i can do with this prediction...
Make Money? 1 step X 1 step u predict all the movement, if I understand well....


Lubo.
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #7
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:22pm Mar 5, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting LuboLabo
Make Money? 1 step X 1 step u predict all the movement, if I understand well....


Lubo.
for example at the moment the t3 ma into eurusd is at 1.3857 into 1hr chart and i'll be able to say that in the next hour this moving average grows up at 1.3888( it's an example i haven't done any prevision at the moment)...

but sometimes if you see when the t3 ma goes up the price goes down....

so i tell you how can i use this prediction for helps me to buy or to sell??
  • #8
  • Mar 5, 2010 1:28pm Mar 5, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting andrea182
for example at the moment the t3 ma into eurusd is at 1.3857 into 1hr chart and i'll be able to say that in the next hour this moving average grows up at 1.3888( it's an example i haven't done any prevision at the moment)...

but sometimes if you see when the t3 ma goes up the price goes down....

so i tell you how can i use this prediction for helps me to buy or to sell??
Yuo have to try to understand the price movement in relation with T3 movement, this is what I can suggest as I don't know how u do this prediction...

Lubo.
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #9
  • Mar 5, 2010 2:00pm Mar 5, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting LuboLabo
Yuo have to try to understand the price movement in relation with T3 movement
Lubo.
it's the only thing i've into my head to use this prediction
  • #10
  • Mar 5, 2010 2:08pm Mar 5, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting andrea182
it's the only thing i've into my head to use this prediction
Could u or/and would u share how u predict the step? Maybe together we can make somthing usefull.

Thanks.

Lubo.
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #11
  • Mar 5, 2010 7:08pm Mar 5, 2010 7:08pm
Quoting LuboLabo
Could u or/and would u share how u predict the step? Maybe together we can make somthing usefull.

Thanks.

Lubo.
Sorry but i can't share at all my works because it isn't only mine...

i only tell you that i can predict the next value of the t3 ma with 10 periods but i cannot understand how that can be profitable...

maybe at the end of my works i'll share with all...i don't know...
  • #12
  • Mar 5, 2010 8:53pm Mar 5, 2010 8:53pm
Quoting andrea182
Sorry but i can't share at all my works because it isn't only mine...

i only tell you that i can predict the next value of the t3 ma with 10 periods but i cannot understand how that can be profitable...

maybe at the end of my works i'll share with all...i don't know...
Well, it's really very simple. If you can predict the next step with 99.99% accuracy, you can predict the second step with 99.99% * 99.99% = 99.98% accuracy. After ten iterations you still have 99.0004% accuracy, after 60 iterations 99.42% accuracy.

I would pull up a one-minute chart and predict 60 iterations (= one hour) into the future. Do a Martingale approach: if you lose (very unlikely) double up with your next bet.

You should be able to own the world and become a James-Bond movie villain in less than a week.
  • #13
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:11am Mar 6, 2010 5:11am
Quoting jesperweber
Well, it's really very simple. If you can predict the next step with 99.99% accuracy, you can predict the second step with 99.99% * 99.99% = 99.98% accuracy. After ten iterations you still have 99.0004% accuracy, after 60 iterations 99.42% accuracy.

I would pull up a one-minute chart and predict 60 iterations (= one hour) into the future. Do a Martingale approach: if you lose (very unlikely) double up with your next bet.

You should be able to own the world and become a James-Bond movie villain in less than a week.
tonight i've done a lot of mathematics test and i've this result:

t3ma prediction with 12 periods --->99.23% of right value
t3ma prediction with 10 periods --->98.36% of right value


if i try to prediction 60 candle it goes down to less then 60% in the first case and worse in the second case...

so i can't use this idea...
  • #14
  • Mar 6, 2010 5:30am Mar 6, 2010 5:30am
Quoting andrea182
tonight i've done a lot of mathematics test and i've this result:

t3ma prediction with 12 periods --->99.23% of right value
t3ma prediction with 10 periods --->98.36% of right value


if i try to prediction 60 candle it goes down to less then 60% in the first case and worse in the second case...

so i can't use this idea...
I think u have to predict step by step so the accuracy remains 99...., and using swing point, example 1h chart T3 turn from low to high and u predict every step up movie so the price go up since T3 turn again lower value and so on.....

Lubo.

example:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: t3 swing.gif Size: 26 KB
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #15
  • Mar 6, 2010 6:27am Mar 6, 2010 6:27am
how is the setting of you t3ma??

i've 99% of accuracy with 12 periods with 0.7 of volume factor..and it isn't so fast to turn up and down...

and when there is ranging market..??
  • #16
  • Mar 6, 2010 7:07am Mar 6, 2010 7:07am
Quoting andrea182
how is the setting of you t3ma??

i've 99% of accuracy with 12 periods with 0.7 of volume factor..and it isn't so fast to turn up and down...

and when there is ranging market..??
I have a T3 modified indicator, don't remember where i find it.

When there's a ranging .... uhmmm dunno , u can't win always or u can find a filter to skip as possible the choppy market.

Lubo.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 T3_clean.mq4   6 KB | 795 downloads
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #17
  • Mar 6, 2010 7:25am Mar 6, 2010 7:25am
Quoting LuboLabo
I have a T3 modified indicator, don't remember where i find it.

When there's a ranging .... uhmmm dunno , u can't win always or u can find a filter to skip as possible the choppy market.

Lubo.
Thank you for sharing... this afternoon i'll test your indicator and tell you the result...

maybe works well...
  • #18
  • Mar 6, 2010 8:23am Mar 6, 2010 8:23am
i've done some test and it should have even better result than my t3ma indicator...thanks...

if someone can traslate matlab code into dll contact me...
  • #19
  • May 27, 2010 4:31pm May 27, 2010 4:31pm
you should start by sharing, really sharing......even to thickos, newbies or anyone even outside the 'circle' of pro--gram--ing...you never know..
  • #20
  • Last Post: May 27, 2010 5:15pm May 27, 2010 5:15pm
Hello andrea182,

I'm a C++/MQ4 Coder, so actually I should be able to build your DLL.
I do not have a exact understanding of Matlab, as I did not use it yet, however I think we can work things out together if you are interested.

Greetings,
DPGC
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