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Lusan Journal II

  • #201
  • May 27, 2010 6:44am May 27, 2010 6:44am
Quoting trade price
here you go.i was talking about those levels yesterday.we did found some S/R on those levels.
lusan do you trade intraday or just the daily?
Because of time constrain
-and also current interest:
getting clarity on the dance bias-
I am focusing on the daily.
I believe that it is almost all the same.
-just waves within waves.

By the way, EU is seems to be entering into a congestions of
1.2150 to 1.2350 range.
Happy trading,
Luis
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #202
  • May 27, 2010 6:50am May 27, 2010 6:50am
Quoting luSan
Because of time constrain
-and also current interest:
getting clarity on the dance bias-
I am focusing on the daily.
I believe that it is almost all the same.
-just waves within waves.

By the way, EU is seems to be entering into a congestions of
1.2150 to 1.2350 range.
Happy trading,
Luis
i am after the intraday short for a while.
  • #203
  • Edited 6:51pm May 27, 2010 4:40pm | Edited 6:51pm
Memorial day.
What should I do after an
excellent trading week?
Rest rest rest.
No trading until Monday evening.
Where will PA be?
I do not know,
but I will keep my eyes open.


Edit: Even though I might want to go north,
this is a range...in an iliquidy market and facing a S/R...
I am not sure that TA makes any sense...so south or north?
It is just gambling!
Probably it is better to have some wine...
that is what I am going to do right now!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 26.jpg Size: 69 KB
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #204
  • May 28, 2010 10:18am May 28, 2010 10:18am
Quoting luSan
Memorial day.
What should I do after an
excellent trading week?
Rest rest rest.
No trading until Monday evening.
Where will PA be?
I do not know,
but I will keep my eyes open.


Edit: Even though I might want to go north,
this is a range...in an iliquidy market and facing a S/R...
I am not sure that TA makes any sense...so south or north?
It is just gambling!
Probably it is better to have some wine...
that is what I am going to do right now!
Hi LuSan,

What is that analysis tool that you are attaching pics from? Or is it your own?

Just curious.
  • #205
  • May 28, 2010 11:05am May 28, 2010 11:05am
Quoting piccolo
Hi LuSan,

What is that analysis tool that you are attaching pics from? Or is it your own?

Just curious.
No analysis tool
but my brain.
For the pict...I use the attached tool
I wrote some time ago...
I will PM you the password.
Regards,
Luis
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Getit_setup.zip   407 KB | 252 downloads
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #206
  • Edited 10:20am May 30, 2010 9:57am | Edited 10:20am
Sunday morning
after a downgrading of Spain.
Is this the beginning of the next
southern leg?
We also have NFE numbers this Friday.
So we will have a week full of uncertainty
and volatility.
All this is great for day trading
-which I am not doing.-
Skipping

Note: Normally I do the H4 in my head. I do not like candlesticks
in that time frame. Why? It does not feel right. TL, HH/LL and S/R feel better.
H4 is a very dynamic chart that changes very quickly !? For me, in daily trading is
equivalent to the 5M for intraday trading 15M.
You figure.

A further note: these charts are my assessment of the mood
Now in the market: its rhythm. No attempt to forecast
direction. A part of my private journal that I share here
with my friend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #207
  • Jun 1, 2010 4:45pm Jun 1, 2010 4:45pm
An interesting southern slope in H4.
Unemployment number are coming late this week
so
I will hold my horses until next Sunday evening
after tonight trading session.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #208
  • Jun 2, 2010 1:37am Jun 2, 2010 1:37am
glad to see you back on your journal...very nice job on the last few pages....keep it coming...
  • #209
  • Jun 2, 2010 6:21am Jun 2, 2010 6:21am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
glad to see you back on your journal...very nice job on the last few pages....keep it coming...
Thanks.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #210
  • Jun 2, 2010 4:42pm Jun 2, 2010 4:42pm
Good luck to those that can trade this market.
Probably great for day trading
I mean, trading M15-5M combo
and using M15 as a main trend
as well as being very nimble.
-Ah those first days of my trading
found in my first Journal. That the way
to trade this beast-
Now, for me?
Nope. Not trade until next Sunday evening.
This market seems -to my poor judgment -
to be lacking of a clear direction.
So
I will wait and see that it does.
I would hate missing a trading day: tomorrow,
but then we will have the unemployment
numbers and I do not trade so close
to that news.
Am I scared?
Nope.
I just know my limitations.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #211
  • Jun 2, 2010 9:59pm Jun 2, 2010 9:59pm
Tonight I realized that trading timing
should consider more than just price ....
I mean,
almost all bars have shadows,
which means that for a white bar
the high is higher than the close
and the low is lower than the open.
(the opposite for black bars).
So what?
Ah, but then
if a 1H bar has 4 M15, then
I could warrant that
there is a probability that
a bunch of white 1H bars
will have the first and the last M15 as black
and so for...
that is a timing concept worthy to explore....
specially if combined with the 4H that has likewise
4 x H1 bars....
this would some similar
to 'time within time'
which is
of course another
way of expression
'wheel within wheel'
but now using the concept of time.

What I mean, "
that maybe we need to use both
price and time
to improve our timing.

For example,
right now we are starting the first H1 of an H4 bar,
the previous bar was white
so we are in a northern direction.
and
right now 1H is black
which mean that 15M is black
so when 15M become white
we should enter north...
etc.

Something to reflect
and
examine further
Cheers
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #212
  • Jun 3, 2010 5:00am Jun 3, 2010 5:00am
Hi lusan,

this is a very informative thread and i will save this to my arsenal of ammo i am very much interested of your outlook and perspective of trading naked: the way you handle your attack. Your analysis is very good for the brain and informative.

one thing's for sure, i will keep on coming back here mate i love your work.

regards,
dongsky
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #213
  • Jun 3, 2010 5:11am Jun 3, 2010 5:11am
Quoting luSan
Tonight I realized that trading timing
should consider more than just price ....
I mean,
almost all bars have shadows,
which means that for a white bar
the high is higher than the close
and the low is lower than the open.
(the opposite for black bars).
So what?
Ah, but then
if a 1H bar has 4 M15, then
I could warrant that
there is a probability that
a bunch of white 1H bars
will have the first and the last M15 as black
and so for...
that is a timing concept worthy to explore....
specially if combined with the 4H that has likewise
4 x H1 bars....
this...

Hi LuSan,

sounds interesting for sure.

But keep in mind that all bars are only representations for one way the price has taken. Watching at them on different time frames will possibly misslead you. There is only PA in the charts. Different looking pattern/candles on different time frames are only an optical illusion.

Hmmh - seems my brain is still sleeping. We have an public holiday troday here in germany. Can not make my point clear. Will try it later again.

CU,
MaMood
  • #214
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:21am Jun 3, 2010 6:21am
Quoting MaMood
But keep in mind that all bars are only representations for one way the price has taken. Watching at them on different time frames will possibly misslead you. There is only PA in the charts. Different looking pattern/candles on different time frames are only an optical illusion.
Correct.
However I do not use candlestick
in the traditional way:
to forescast direction.

I use them as a measure of
PA momentum direction and strength.
In other words,
a black candle does not say that the
sellers are winning
but that PA has gone south for a while
and because of the Newton law
it might want to keep going south
so
if I choose to go north
I better have a very good reason
to go against PA.

How MTF misslead?
I do not agree with you here.
E/U has been falling for quite a few weeks.
that is clearly shown in the weekly.
To trade without awareness of that concept
is mistaken. In my opinion.
That information is a strong measure
of a the risk of the NOW trade.
I mean: because W1 is moving south
is a heck of lot safer to
go short than long on the E/U.
it does not mean not to go one way of the other.
Attempting extensive rescue campaign against the weekly
or against the Daily is a real killer.
So we better know about them.
Likewise if I were doing a normal dance using the M15 bias,
I better know that is 1D and 4H current trend.
why?
Because they are a relative measured of the length
of PA legs and would help to have a sense of risk.
In your case of trading M5-M1,
you might want to have some clarity
on 15M direction...but not candlestick there.
and that you do with your momentum tools.
It is all the same...
Etc.
I better stop.
I have to go to work.
Schuss.
Luis
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #215
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:30am Jun 3, 2010 6:30am
Quoting dongsky
Hi lusan,

this is a very informative thread and i will save this to my arsenal of ammo i am very much interested of your outlook and perspective of trading naked: the way you handle your attack. Your analysis is very good for the brain and informative.

one thing's for sure, i will keep on coming back here mate i love your work.

regards,
dongsky
Thanks.
My attack protocole are shown in the first journal.
After extensive testing of the current strategy
I will introduce further the attack sequence
I wrote in that journal and other
concepts I discovered on this journey.
Right know I am just trying to solve a problem
that bothered for a long time:
'What is the bias, what is the trend, and how to
deploy the first scout."
So far the results are very encouraging:
4100 pips, 100 DD and only 2 losing campaigns
of 150 and 60 pips.
The first lost was because I forgot that
sl should never be place on a chart
and the second
yesterday when the trade took longer
than the allowed time length.
All these with a live account
and for a 2 month period.

Regards,

Luis
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #216
  • Jun 3, 2010 4:16pm Jun 3, 2010 4:16pm
Just go home after a long boring day.
I passed the day thinking about trading
while doing a very repetive physical task at work.
-mind and body disconnected!-

What I learned?
I decided not to expand and polish my current daily trading strategy.
It is already good enough,

so

(1) I will keep trading as I do for several more months
and then begin to increase my sizes until 4X the current size
-probably by early September.
I will keep its current safe and effective simplicity. There are still 2 open questions: (1) Given that I accept failure at the reversal points, how will it perform when a large reversal happens. (b) Confirm effectiveness during a daily ranging perios (such as the one we are right now.)

(2) Transfer the current strategy toward the weekly chart. Sadly I cannot move toward the faster time frames because I do not
have enough trading time/energy to do justice to my beloved M15. (Even though I thought about some very interesting concept today that I still plan to explore. If I change my mind, I will dance the early London session.)

(3) Investigate deeper the concept of time as its apply to trading.
Probably I need to read more carefully the 'wind in the tunnel' book. Maybe I do some statistically analysis on the subject, etc.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #217
  • Jun 3, 2010 4:41pm Jun 3, 2010 4:41pm
All is pointing south.
However because it is Friday
and
tomorrow is a big NFE and
Unemployment rate day,
I choose to stay out.
I will return to the fight on
Sunday evening.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30.jpg Size: 103 KB
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #218
  • Jun 4, 2010 7:35am Jun 4, 2010 7:35am
Quoting luSan
Thanks.
My attack protocole are shown in the first journal.
After extensive testing of the current strategy
I will introduce further the attack sequence
I wrote in that journal and other
concepts I discovered on this journey.
Right know I am just trying to solve a problem
that bothered for a long time:
'What is the bias, what is the trend, and how to
deploy the first scout."
So far the results are very encouraging:
4100 pips, 100 DD and only 2 losing campaigns
of 150 and 60 pips.
The first lost was because I forgot that
sl should never be place...
Hi Luis,

your result is very impressive, well done mate. as you know i'm always trading with 5 min and 1 hour and 15 minutes is my main reference for further directional bias when low volatiliy and momentum is slow. but i always trade with the trend by pulling out daily to get the feel of the bigger picture and start to work from there. if all time frame is all in unison, then that's no problem, just need to look for a better entry.

I am addicted to trading forex, honestly and considering my trading time, like yours is only limited. i am really trying to comprehend all your entries and analogy behind that move. i can see a lot of similarities with our trading ways, it's just our position sizing is different. i believe we have the same level of mindset when in our battlestation - always in berserk mode hahahaha just to make you laugh. always do or die mode when in battle but not desperate of course... me i always kill my scouts or soldiers when i realised am in the wrong bus, rather than painful rescues

i dance well in attack mode.

regards,
dong
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #219
  • Jun 6, 2010 9:18am Jun 6, 2010 9:18am
No brainer.
Sell the Euro.
Note that I replaced H4
because eventually I will return
to the dance floor after I finish
my higher time frame strategies.
In the floor H1-M15-M5 are
more useful.
Now I am trading W1 and D1 only.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #220
  • Jun 7, 2010 4:43pm Jun 7, 2010 4:43pm
So
am I going 1 level
or
2 levels down?
We will see.
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Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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