USDCAD trend reversal?

finally i open a long at 1.0685. hopefully its not to late. target is 10.820

hahaha!!! Nice! I like it! Nice bullish reversal on monthly if anyone is looking (i'm sure you are). Close next week above 1.0574 or so keeps it intact. Although, to be honest, I don't put huge stock in candlestick formations.

Have fun y'all!

hmmm this pair is going down for now. hopefully this pair still going north. still my long is still open.

Have been working on getting a vision of the future.

Reread a book "The Way Of The Hunter Warrior" author Julian Synder

Came across this quote from p.118 where the author in turn quotes George Finlay, History of Greece, 1851

" In reviewing the causes which contributed to the decline of the wealth and diminution of the population of the Roman Empire it is necessary to take into account the depreciation of the coinage which frequently robbed large classes of the industrious citizens of a great part of their wealth, reduced the value of property, produced confusion in legal contracts, and anarchy in prices in public markets. The evils which must have resulted from the enormous depreciation of the Roman coinage at several periods can only be understood by a chronological record of the principle changes, and by remembering that each issue of a depreciated coinage was an act of bankruptcy on the part of the reigning emperor."

Sound familiar?
Question :Will Germany pay for everybody else?
Will the American taxpayer keep their head stuck in the sand come November?
Can China avoid hyperinflation with the tremendous expansion in money supply, created by its government?
Are the Grasshoppers more important then the ants?

Inflation lags about two years behind money expansion.
I still am leaning towards debt default as the most likely driver of financial markets going forward. The only choice is which way via debt repudiation (deflationary bankruptcy 1930's style) or some incipient inflationary/recession (1970's style).

The course the US Government will continue to choose will be the one most clandestine. This postulates a return to the 1970's which produced no growth and higher price levels.

The long term cycles appear to favor deflation as the business outlook, so will continue to trade for a stronger USD and a bear cycle in equities.
Jay Norris's post yesterday about bear market rules being different would imply we are in the markdown phase of equities. ( One of his best posts of the year) Most of the big boys sell into the rallies leaving the public the bagholder in a declining market.

My charts keep indicating that the buying of the USD is occurring on the retraces and not the breakouts. That would support the diagnosis.

Yeh the view is a reflection on general conditions. But technicals without knowing east from west or north from south are bunk.

If one happens to be keeping track of other commodity currencies the AUD/USD today rejected rather harshly the 84.00 level. If one also happens to be looking at the weekly/3 yr chart there is a 38.2% retrace of the last major move at the 81.00 level that has been tested twice.
This level if it fails will lead to significant downside potential.

If the deflation conjecture proves out then a breach of the 81.00 support warrants continued holding and even adding to position shorts.

I do not believe the Euro will hold together if the ECB abandons all restraint and lowers interest rates or engages in quantitative easing. Germany will not stand for it. If the ECB does act in that manner then shorting commodity currencies is wrong and long commodity currencies would be correct. So far this scenario is pure conjecture.

Another thing to be aware of is that as the Euro continues to fall it is inflationary for the Euro zone so the ECB is quite limited in what it can act upon.

Yo Venge: nice to read you again! Thanks for the input, I be longing the Loonie for awhile, but recent talk of pressure for Carney to raise % makes me "keep my stick on the ice".

Still think that I can resurrect the "Parity or Poutine" wager!

Don't be a stranger.

My friend: thank you again for your valuable insights!

Re: AUD/US 8176 is 50 ema on M chart. Ties with your W fib. Good point to mark on your fx calendar!

The comm$ vs Y on D chart are in a rt angle triangle in a downtrend - a continuation pattern.

FOTO: beauty info, as always ( I hope viewers take the time to decipher the info).

I am a US$ bull as mentioned in several posts. This is my long-term bias & I scalp against this view quite frequently ( & quite profitably).

RE: Grasshoppers/ Ants story; you may wish to consider the "Emporer's New Clothes" analogy to trading events.

As you stated: " Caveat Emptor" watch the BIG BOYS!

it Touch 1.0530, ha3 is it still a good price to take long? or bearish trend happen? for me definitly still a bullish trend, how about you guys?

next lines from my follower. should be ready for reversal also imo. good job.

Loonie Loonie You always hard to get but
If you test my patience i will not lose it ,If you try to change my view I will stuck to my system If you try to shake my confidence I'm Not that one
Let's see what will happen from here 1.05

The weekly candle doesn't look good for longs. We need to close tomorrow above 1.0611...unlikely ??

i was adding my long at 1.0530. hopefully it's back to 1.08xx

Hey
what's up guys ? Why it's hush hush!
I'm still on my trade till hit SL or TP

so, what position does your trade take the position? long or short? and at what price is your TP? please share with me..... i hope you position is also long like me, so i'm not alone here.

I'm Long with some positions from 1.04 , 1.05 , 1.06
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3399

then same with me mate. to bad i'm still not open any long at 1.04xx since i have a rule to take another transaction with minimum 100 pips distant from my last transaction.i will heavily long this pair at 1.02xx if this pair goes there(even if only a small chance)...

This pair seems to have gone about as high as it is going to go at this point in time, I think.

Looking at stochastics, my 4H is saying short and my daily has just turned to short, so I think I will interpret the 4H as a somewhat skewed head and shoulders and aim for 1.03 at a TP. With oil starting to come up this may just help the turn around.

Moonchild: thoughtful analysis! I like this feedback in order to review my decisions & see if I missed anything or if my tekcrap was all screwed up.

W chart has 50 down ( might still see the P word) 1.07ish good Resistance since Feb & this past week. Last week's candle was a hammer.

D has 50 up but STO & MacD histo are down

4H tf: 1.0450/40 was prev support May 19

then throw in possible H&S ( possible NL retest @ 1.0605?) STO appears O/S .

then throw in 1.0300 was prev supp 18 May

I am not able to stay in front of the computer screen all day, so I would watch prev Support levels. (note what occurred Wed & Thurs!).

May the pip gods shower you.

CFTC data show net USD speculative longs at new record high of 180,000 contracts in week to May 25, easily surpassing previous record high of 165,000 set in November 2005; as comes with lowest level of AUD longs in more than one year, data suggest "scope for further AUD/USD downside is diminishing," as investors are likely finishing expanding USD bets, trimming AUD longs, says Gareth Berry, strategist at UBS. Data also show cuts to bets on commodity currencies, suggesting these units may be set for rebound after recent slump, as investors wind down sell-offs. Indeed, USD/CAD has fallen from its multi-month high marked on May 25 at 1.0850 to last 1.0509 !~!~!!~!