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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,601
  • May 27, 2010 3:42am May 27, 2010 3:42am
Gann makes me a genius.
Understand Gann easy ... and it will be strong.

PS I give nothing to the thread.It's all here in the thread ... and youself.
  • #15,602
  • May 27, 2010 3:51am May 27, 2010 3:51am
Quoting lilpip
been walking up with her but my eyes are open 2240 area.


Cant ignore this.

http://americanbadass607.wordpress.c...y-as-of-52610/
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/23/business/23labor.html
Most interesting bits of info, thanks lil
Cooked up unemployment info + "bail them all out" policy. I guess politicians really have short memory or/and history intolerance.


@Piccolo - that's a really great compilation! May I know where did you collect it from? Or is it something you put together yourself?
  • #15,603
  • May 27, 2010 3:51am May 27, 2010 3:51am
Quoting esuffw
Hi all

I am going through a very bad rescue this week. I guess my profitable trades during the last three weeks have grow me into a self destructive trader.

I entered my rescue lots way too quickly in low skews. The DD was big. It was a painful experience but then it acts as a great reminder of staying true to the basics. I was playing around with different things. e.g. Hedge which got me comfortable...

I hope more newbies like myself wouldn't have to go through the same pain. Reading the above post just makes me feel even more stupid about...
fti quote, not sure of post #, but in answer to post #1500 on Feb 15 2008 (the red highlight is mine):

About "you mention not to allow a rescue to snowball given the tight range"
The discouragement is not because of the tight range, rather that given the grounds whereby the congestion is occurring, abnormalities are expected in the battlefield. If we were to implement the normal dance. Chances is that we will be snowballing in a tight range, akin to large bet positions ahead of a trend run. If correct the windfall profit would be great , but generally the risk would be great as well. So large exposures now may not be prudent of traders in overexposure and becomes difficult to manage ,when in the wrong direction.


From experience, chances will be swift two way action, and the survivors have to be very swift and decisive. Unintiated traders will stand better to resources conservativeness, which will be necessary for a protracted engagements, when the inevitable happens. The charts are presenting trapping signal both ways and the intermarket relationships are tearing, pointing to a realignment of changing ground , probably on a major scale.Be prepared about the time scale that this will be occuring , probably in tandem with the occurance on the USA developments.


We are entering exceptional times, and exceptional and conservative strategies should stand well.
However for nimble dancers , this provides great opportunities to scalp the congestion. Just be mindful of the major trend and the levels of rescues not be too aggressive.
End ft quote

In my high skew experiments I have learnt the risk of skewing during congestion (on the wrong side of next volatility - congestion and volatility follow each other in cycles) must be factored in.

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #15,604
  • May 27, 2010 3:52am May 27, 2010 3:52am
Guys,

know your risk and just trade. buy, sell, whatever.

regards.
  • #15,605
  • May 27, 2010 3:57am May 27, 2010 3:57am
Quoting Zoran
That's what I mean by over the top. The language seems rather strong and an insult but based on the conversation in this thread, I cannot understand why.

Since it was written in Chinese and the video being Chinese, I can only assume it was directed at a Chinese person. Not you but someone else. However, stealing? I know fti made such accusations in the past but again, I haven't seen any evidence in the thread.

I do have my suspicions though and I understand how vBulletin works. It's not the first time I've had such suspicions.
I also thought the language was strong, that's why I did not want to translate it the first time, then after chewing it over dinner I decided it was not directed at any of us in particular, rather at some lurking villains past and present.
  • #15,606
  • May 27, 2010 4:04am May 27, 2010 4:04am
Quoting jest1081
Guys,

know your risk and just trade. buy, sell, whatever.

regards.
Also simple and strong!
Agree - that's all you have to care about ;-)
  • #15,607
  • May 27, 2010 4:04am May 27, 2010 4:04am
Quoting Baifu
fti quote, not sure of post #, but in answer to post #1500 on Feb 15 2008 (the red highlight is mine):

About "you mention not to allow a rescue to snowball given the tight range"
[color=#c00000][font=Verdana]The discouragement is not because of the tight range, rather that given the grounds whereby the congestion is occurring, abnormalities are expected in the battlefield. If we were to implement the normal dance. Chances is that we will be snowballing in a tight range, akin to large bet positions ahead...
Many thanks for the reminder Baifu

When I got stuck in the rescue, I actually scalped the volatility using a hedge. That hedge got me comfortable about the rescue mission. I overstayed and when I had one chance to leave at BE, my greed showed up and say cut it when in profit. The BE point was the tip of the reverse.

"akin to large bet positions ahead of a trend run" this explains my situation very well.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #15,608
  • May 27, 2010 4:40am May 27, 2010 4:40am
Quoting Baifu
I also thought the language was strong, that's why I did not want to translate it the first time, then after chewing it over dinner I decided it was not directed at any of us in particular, rather at some lurking villains past and present.
Yes, that's what I think except I wouldn't say "villians" but "disgruntled" person(s). What concerns me though is my suspicion in the way information was obtained.
  • #15,609
  • May 27, 2010 4:52am May 27, 2010 4:52am
Quoting esuffw
Many thanks for the reminder Baifu

When I got stuck in the rescue, I actually scalped the volatility using a hedge. That hedge got me comfortable about the rescue mission. I overstayed and when I had one chance to leave at BE, my greed showed up and say cut it when in profit. The BE point was the tip of the reverse.

"akin to large bet positions ahead of a trend run" this explains my situation very well.
"I had one chance to leave at BE, my greed showed up and say cut it when in profit."

ah, the old man on the roof story, you are not alone
  • #15,610
  • May 27, 2010 7:12am May 27, 2010 7:12am
Happy trading day to everyone. Traded the GBP/$ up early today, and took profits on two trades. Been watching the pair square part of the London move up and am now waiting for FA in US in 20 mins. Time for some fresh coffee and then focus.
  • #15,611
  • May 27, 2010 7:21am May 27, 2010 7:21am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

alongside with Baifu's valuable citations it sounds like a triviality, but I want to bring a simple rule of the basic market mechanics to your attention again. The following posting describes it very well:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=919

CU,
MaMood
Long ago I read this:

“Hence the excruciating paradox of financial markets, that sentiment is most bullish at the peaks when prices have only one way to go which is down; and most bearish at troughs vice versa: at the top there’s no one left to buy, and at the bottom on one left to sell. This paradox is absolutely central to the working of all financial markets and we need all the help we can get to understand it so thoroughly that it becomes part of our nature. The more bullish things are, the more bearish they are”

Rgs,

Textor
  • #15,612
  • May 27, 2010 8:22am May 27, 2010 8:22am
Demo mode:
Squared short E/U morning campaign (almost 7 hours) before US figs. Held raiders longer to lessen % cost of spread and slippage. Peaceful campaign although there were 2 countertrend E/U bull phases that lasted as long as the bear phases, max DD 2.1%

1375 troops, highest skew level 12 (144 troops) deployed once versus yesterday’s 36 times(!), highest gearing 13 (yesterday 29), first entry to last exit down 18 pips, captured 243 pips with 2.2% to book.

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #15,613
  • May 27, 2010 9:17am May 27, 2010 9:17am
Hello people

I've been away from the thread for a while due to the discussion of Gann's mystic spirals. I must say I am glad it's over and we can go to the basics.

I think what Baifu is doing with quoting fti's post(just directing to page or post number is better, IMHO) is the right way to go for the sake of discussions here. It's better this way than to ask fti to repeat the same things but with different words untill he get's fed up with it.

When rereading the thread I came across a nice discussion about spirals on page 115. And YES, spirals refer to MM or exposure only, it's that simple.

@lilpip
Thanks for the articles, it's good info. Since they mention manufacturing field of economy of a country, ponder this, there is a trend in the engineering sphere towards full automation of manufacturing processes all over the world. Labour is flowing out of manufacturing field to the services field (administration is services, right?) just like capital flows from one market to another. Can you imagine what will happen if manufacturing and agriculture get fully automated in the industrialized countries?

@piccolo
Thanks for the compilation Really nice.


"With the passing of the financial reform bill, along side of the Healthcare law. The Federal Government will control over half of the US economy, 60%."

Guys sum this statement from the article and the stuff in the following documentary films: "FEMA" ; "Don't tread on me"

Regards, MyTbo
  • #15,614
  • May 27, 2010 11:50am May 27, 2010 11:50am
How i observe, people like Gann, Fti, Buffet.... have something in common. It is, that they are all wise. They have some connection to knowledge from the Bible and others consider them to be... wise...
They dont scream, they are not selfish. They are worth to be taken as an example.
Reading Gann, i just consider myself, how far from this i am... But also see in practise, how it works and that our wishes are achievable. They were not "the lucky". Life is not gambling. They worked hard and in the right way... And they developed their ears to hear..
  • #15,615
  • May 27, 2010 2:10pm May 27, 2010 2:10pm
looks like just CBs in the markets now...
  • #15,616
  • May 27, 2010 2:41pm May 27, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting M-H Trader
looks like just CBs in the markets now...

Hi,

why do you think so?
Asking, because it's still a secrete to me .....
  • #15,617
  • Edited 2:53pm May 27, 2010 2:48pm | Edited 2:53pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi,

why do you think so?
Asking, because it's still a secrete to me .....
200 pips of controlled movement up on a NY afternoon where there's usually low liquidity and only floppy moves...
Especially looking at it on a M15 it just screams "CB intervention".
  • #15,618
  • May 27, 2010 2:58pm May 27, 2010 2:58pm
The question that disturbs me is that, I profited from the move, but I don't know it's CB intervention. Does it matter that I know if CB is involved ? Will knowing CB interventions or lack of knowledge affect my future performance ?
  • #15,619
  • May 27, 2010 2:59pm May 27, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting Setebos
200 pips of controlled movement up on a NY afternoon where there's usually low liquidity and only floppy moves...
Especially looking at it on a M15 it just screams "CB intervention".

Ah ok - I see.
Thx for the explanation.
  • #15,620
  • May 27, 2010 3:02pm May 27, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
The question that disturbs me is that, I profited from the move, but I don't know it's CB intervention. Does it matter that I know if CB is involved ? Will knowing CB interventions or lack of knowledge affect my future performance ?
From my point of view it is just nice to know, but does/should not effect your trading and decision making. You have always listen to the music and dance it.
If it is going against the prevailing trend respectively your bias, you know your options like flipping or bite the bullet ....
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