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VantagePoint discussion thread

  • #161
  • Jan 5, 2006 10:47pm Jan 5, 2006 10:47pm
[quote]
Quoting piotruslalka
It seems that you met Fiji's criteria for posting negative comments about VP!
Not in my mind but I'm leaving the post for now. To me it is mostly an elaborate rehash of his previous post and an attempt to divert people away from purchasing software that he has not been able to trade profitably. I already told him I'm not going to argue with him so I'll leave his post alone but only if it helps him to stop griping.

Having said that I'd recommend that traders reading this understand that if you want to get advice from someone who has not made a profit from VP that you'll probably not learn anything from them about how to profit from it.

Quote
If you wouldn't mind maybe mentioning your strategies or what you use to trade with less stress in the longer term. I like how that sounds. I read Bird Watching in Lion Country and I completely agree with the longer term psychology.
Go to the main public forum for that. This thread is for VP.

Quote
Maybe in this thread would be inappropriate, but I think it would be great to hear what you have to say. You mention that you use James16 charts is this all or is there anything else that you depend on.

Thank you all!
Bingo. This thread would be inappropriate.
  • #162
  • Jan 5, 2006 10:54pm Jan 5, 2006 10:54pm
[quote=bluemeasure]

Quote
Essentially, VP is not a trading system per se. You need to already have a solid trading system in place that you like and you're confident in and then use VP to boost your confidence in the signals your system generates. Also, in my view, one needs to be aware that with VP there is a bit of discretionary trading involved and this requires that you bring a certain amount of trading experience to the table. This is what leads me to say that while yes, you might be able extract some valuable information out of VP eventually, the amount of time and effort required is better spent elsewhere for the reasons cited - first and foremost ensuring you've got a solid trading system in place.
Keep in mind that this advice about how VP should be used is coming from someone who has not been able to make money from it.

FT
  • #163
  • Jan 6, 2006 2:56pm Jan 6, 2006 2:56pm
Quote
Posted by BB

1. I am in the process of looking at 9 other pairs, please bear with me, I am travelling right now, internet access is sporatic, I'll post as I can

2. Both high and low, see the above comment

3. 50 is very arbitrary at this point. If I monitor a trade, I can often get much more on some currency pairs. 50 is good for eur/usd, but I have gained as much as 200 on gbp/jpy. I think the ATR should be the basis for determining a realistic T/P and S/L amount. I'll have moer to say about this later.

And finally a comment on Moneytec..........very hostile environment there, I will NOT waste my time over there, there is WAY too much good stuff and GOOD people here at FF!!!!!! I personally would rather use my time and energy on positive things, like VP testing & trading and using the new PF.
Well said. It only makes sense to focus on what makes money. I like your idea of trading off both with entries with 25 or so stops and 50 pip targets. This will get a lot more trades but the 50 pip targets are within pretty easy reach of most of the bounces that you get off the highs and lows from VP. This system will trade a lot more often which increases transaction costs but the smaller targets should bring up the probability a good amount.

Good work. Let me know how it goes.

FT
  • #164
  • Jan 9, 2006 2:54pm Jan 9, 2006 2:54pm
Just thought I'd run a simple system by you all, and by simple I really do mean simple. Please pick it to pieces.

I don't spread bet like you sophisticated traders yet (to me, pips are things which fall out of oranges), but use UP/DOWN bets which pay out double if you win, lose all if you lose. There are many other types of trade but I'm keeping it simple so I thought I would just concentrate on intraday UP/DOWN.

Now, looking at the GBP pairs, it seems that most of the moves tend to occur between 6.30AM GMT and 4.30PM GMT. My hypothesis therefore is to download the data about 6AM (I'm using CSI UA on a trial at the moment), analyse with vantagepoint to cherry-pick the strongest trend (increasing magnitude of DIFFs, 5day MA, neural index), then enter the trade by 6.30AM, to close at 4.30PM (you have to say exactly when the trade will close from the start. Looking through some history it seems that quite often after 4.30 there is an intraday trend reversal. This allows me to keep my job without watching the screen all day.

I can also look at the predicted HI or LO for added support, but as noted here these can often be overshot.

Out of 6 trades placed so far in the last week, all but the GBP/USD one today have won. All the indicators seemed good for GBP/USD to rise today but on this occasion VP was wrong.

My primitive money-management skills will need bolstering if this is to stand any chance of succeeding.

Anyway, I would value any comments anyone may have. I'd be particularly interested if anyone has any advice on WHEN to place trades if you cannot do it in advance.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #165
  • Jan 9, 2006 5:07pm Jan 9, 2006 5:07pm
Quoting cgldsmth
Just thought I'd run a simple system by you all, and by simple I really do mean simple. Please pick it to pieces.

I don't spread bet like you sophisticated traders yet (to me, pips are things which fall out of oranges), but use UP/DOWN bets which pay out double if you win, lose all if you lose. There are many other types of trade but I'm keeping it simple so I thought I would just concentrate on intraday UP/DOWN.

Now, looking at the GBP pairs, it seems that most of the moves tend to occur between 6.30AM GMT and 4.30PM GMT. My hypothesis therefore is to download the data about 6AM (I'm using CSI UA on a trial at the moment), analyse with vantagepoint to cherry-pick the strongest trend (increasing magnitude of DIFFs, 5day MA, neural index), then enter the trade by 6.30AM, to close at 4.30PM (you have to say exactly when the trade will close from the start. Looking through some history it seems that quite often after 4.30 there is an intraday trend reversal. This allows me to keep my job without watching the screen all day.

I can also look at the predicted HI or LO for added support, but as noted here these can often be overshot.

Out of 6 trades placed so far in the last week, all but the GBP/USD one today have won. All the indicators seemed good for GBP/USD to rise today but on this occasion VP was wrong.

My primitive money-management skills will need bolstering if this is to stand any chance of succeeding.

Anyway, I would value any comments anyone may have. I'd be particularly interested if anyone has any advice on WHEN to place trades if you cannot do it in advance.
Just a few questions:

1. Are you using a timed entry but random concerning price? In other words what is your entry signal?

2. It appears your exits are either time or stop loss triggered? 4:30 PM?

3. Money mgt can be determined better when you know the size of stops, winning/losing ratio. Initially I'd recommend risking 1 percent or less on a per trade basis using %r.

4. How do you determine your stops?

5. How do you set a target twice the size of your stops if you are using a time based exit? In other words do you have a way to define stops and set targets other than a timed entry and exit?

FT
  • #166
  • Jan 9, 2006 8:56pm Jan 9, 2006 8:56pm
Genesis have a guy called Brian Talbot give a Free Webinar about once a week on how he uses VantagePoint. I found it quite interesting.

Click on the "Training" Button on the top right of their homepage and search that page for "VantagePoint". (I'm not supposed to give out links as a newbie..... am I)

One simple suggestion...... If you open up a document program like Word, before hand, then by pressing the "Print Screen" key on your keyboard when you see Brian show something you want to look at later, then go over to Word and paste it in.

Dean.
perception is reality
  • #167
  • Jan 10, 2006 12:24am Jan 10, 2006 12:24am
I will definitely check it out! Good to see what he has to say.
I think I can I think I can I think I can...
  • #168
  • Jan 12, 2006 12:46pm Jan 12, 2006 12:46pm
well, the last couple of days, the majority of VPs predictions have been wrong. Comments anyone?
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #169
  • Jan 12, 2006 2:04pm Jan 12, 2006 2:04pm
Quoting cgldsmth
well, the last couple of days, the majority of VPs predictions have been wrong. Comments anyone?
That will continue to be true as long as the software continues to be available. In fact that is true with pretty much any trading system. VantagePoint is a suite of neural indicators that you must design a system with in order to profit. The idea of designing a profitable system is to find patterns where the system is right enough times to give you an edge. For example VP is right only a couple times per week on average in it's daily range predictions. You must find ways to filter out trades that are likely to be wrong and you must find a way to get out more quickly when the trades are wrong. You must also find a way to leave the trade to hit targets that are larger than your losses when the predicitons are right. Since you have no way of knowing when it will be right or wrong your system must take that into account as well. If you read through the whole Fijireports section here (along with a look at the sample system) you'll find that much of how to go about creating a VP based system is here.

I was tempted to give a sarcastic answer but I'll reserve judgement and just believe that your question was an honest one and that you are looking for an intelligent answer. I hope the above comments make sense to you. Did you purchase VantagePoint?

FT
  • #170
  • Jan 12, 2006 3:26pm Jan 12, 2006 3:26pm
Quoting deanz
Genesis have a guy called Brian Talbot give a Free Webinar about once a week on how he uses VantagePoint. I found it quite interesting.

Click on the "Training" Button on the top right of their homepage and search that page for "VantagePoint". (I'm not supposed to give out links as a newbie..... am I)

One simple suggestion...... If you open up a document program like Word, before hand, then by pressing the "Print Screen" key on your keyboard when you see Brian show something you want to look at later, then go over to Word and paste it in.

Dean.
Couldn't find anything on VantagePoint, Deanz. Can you be more specific?

Thanks.

Trinity
  • #171
  • Jan 12, 2006 5:45pm Jan 12, 2006 5:45pm
I never expected to be giving free advertising for Genesis after the time I had with them but your you Trinity I'll make an exception. Actually their webinars are not bad.

Name: Intermarket Analysis
by: Brian Talbot
Date/Time: 1/12/2006 6:30:00 PM (EST)<o></o>

NOTE: All times are shown in http://www.genesisftcom/Training/USTimes.asp Mountain Time (MT).<o></o>

SYSTEM CHECK
Please perform a system check prior to attending the event. This will verify that your computer is capable of hearing and seeing the presentation. Click on the link below and then click 'Start' to perform a system check.
http://class.genesisft.com/main/Syst...temCheck.jhtml<o></o>

ATTEND EVENT
To attend the training event please click on the link below 10 min prior to the starting of the event and enter your first name, last name and email address then click 'Attend'.
http://class.genesisft.com/main/User...082de10a1681dc<o></o>

UPCOMING EVENTS
Please visit the link below for upcoming events.
http://www.genesisft.com/Training/alaron.asp<o></o>

Note: If for any reason you cannot attend this event please click the link below to un-register for the event.
http://www.genesisft.com/Training/Re...9436&Event=710


FT
<o></o>
  • #172
  • Jan 12, 2006 5:49pm Jan 12, 2006 5:49pm
Thanks, FT.
  • #173
  • Jan 12, 2006 11:34pm Jan 12, 2006 11:34pm
Quoting cgldsmth
well, the last couple of days, the majority of VPs predictions have been wrong. Comments anyone?
At this hour (12:30 EST) Vantage point predicted high for the following pairs ... all 4 pairs is within a few pips ... Vantage point has called these right to the quick ... now its up to the market to decide .... It doesnt get any better than this ..

EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY
USD/JPY
  • #174
  • Jan 13, 2006 12:21am Jan 13, 2006 12:21am
thanks for the replies. VP was "wrong" yesterady with respect to trend. I placed 5 intraday bull/bear bets based on short-term trend and diff indicators, and 4 went the wrong way. The USD/CHF recouped my losses though.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #175
  • Jan 13, 2006 12:44am Jan 13, 2006 12:44am
Quoting cgldsmth
thanks for the replies. VP was "wrong" yesterady with respect to trend. I placed 5 intraday bull/bear bets based on short-term trend and diff indicators, and 4 went the wrong way. The USD/CHF recouped my losses though.
Well it still looks good .. all 4 pairs ran through the pred high about 10 pips and have now settled back for a run south ... I hope ....


VP is pretty good with range trading and trending .. but who can react to news that fast ...

If the JPY pairs get kicked down .. what will it be nasty oil futures or the Iran scare ..

Leave the Israelies to drop a few 100 smart bombs and that will fix it .. xcept for the nast oil futures and the mil or so suicide bombers .....

to much news ...
  • #176
  • Jan 13, 2006 1:00am Jan 13, 2006 1:00am
Quoting cgldsmth
thanks for the replies. VP was "wrong" yesterady with respect to trend. I placed 5 intraday bull/bear bets based on short-term trend and diff indicators, and 4 went the wrong way. The USD/CHF recouped my losses though.
That is what makes this a great tool. One or two trades can get you a long ways out of your losses and back into profit. This makes for pretty small drawdowns because VP tends to get it right consistently enough that if your system allows you to take some larger profits you are back in the black pretty quickly. Way to go cgldsmth!

One thing traders may want to consider when tempted to say the software is wrong about trend:

With five indicators all giving you information and the market also telling you about itself -- when I see someone say VP was wrong about trend I think to myself "are you sure that VP was wrong? Not because I want to defend VP but because I'm hoping to get people to think about who is really wrong about trend. Is it the software or is it your interpretation of it's output?

If the PTS is up and the PTM are up does that mean the trend is long? Not necessarily. The PTS is predicting two days in the future and the PTM is predicting four days in the future. The index indicator is measuring the predicted differential between two moving averages. These predictions apply to different time frames. It can take a lot of study to come up with a really great trend definition. However who is coming up with the trend definition? You. The software does not define the trend. It feeds you data based on objective numbers. It is up to you to subjectively interpret the data when you are creating your system. If your interpretation of VP's signals produces a wrong conclusion then let the responsibilty for that conclusion go where it belongs.

Also don't think your trend definition has to be right every time either. Just make sure you know where the wrong conclusion came from so you can fix whatever needs fixing, if anything. Bottom line if you come out with profit then the rest of your system makes up for the fact that you'll be wrong about trend sometimes.

Another important clue here is that if you have a good trend definition using VP that is right enough of the time to keep you doing well in the markets and you notice that the market direction was opposite your trend bias you may want to be looking at what the market is telling you when that happens.

Also the directon the market heads in a single day does not necessarily have anything to do with the trend signals being wrong. VP's trend indicators are EOD signals but they are NOT daily market direction signals. They are trend signals that look ahead up to four days. Therefore what the market does today as a result of last nights EOD data is strictly a directional bias which may be counter trend and not a violation of trend at all.

If you think that this is putting too fine of a point on the pencil and that it is anal to split hairs over minutiae like this I'd agree in many cases. However in trading it is often how you think about some of the smallest details that determines your effectivness. How you communicate reveals how you think. If you get your thinking straight your trading will follow.

Hope this is useful.

FT
  • #177
  • Jan 13, 2006 1:04am Jan 13, 2006 1:04am
Quoting Rocket
At this hour (12:30 EST) Vantage point predicted high for the following pairs ... all 4 pairs is within a few pips ... Vantage point has called these right to the quick ... now its up to the market to decide .... It doesnt get any better than this ..

EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY
USD/JPY
I love it when that happens and I'm in those trades. Big account growth on those days when several are pumping at once. Bye bye losses.

Let us know how your exit strategy fared on those trades.

FT
  • #178
  • Edited 8:20am Jan 13, 2006 8:10am | Edited 8:20am
thanks again for the replies. I'm still very much testing out the VP signals and of course you are right it is how I interprate the figures that matters. Lets see what happens with todays chosen pairs:

current time 1410GMT...

1. CABLE: VP has a downward crossover on the PMA5, with reversal of the PTS, diffs, and strength. Neural index still 0 though. I therefore placed an intraday down bet at 6AM GMT to expire at 2000GMT. At the moment it is moving the wrong way.

2. USD/CHF: PMA5 crossed up yesterday, neural index turned to 1. PTS more positive and PTM less negative. I have placed a bull bet to expire in 5 days time that the pair will trade above 1.8 for a 50% gain. So far today it is down, just.

3. AUD/USD: a bit more speculative, but the neural index has turned to 0, and the PTS/M are much less positive, with the diffs now negative. I placed a small intraday down bet at 6.10GMT to expire at 2000. At the moment it is UP.

Hopefully the VP predicted trends will improve later today during the US session.

Hope I'm not boring you all with my novice fixed-odds trades!

cgldsmth
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #179
  • Jan 13, 2006 8:34am Jan 13, 2006 8:34am
Quoting cgldsmth
thanks again for the replies. I'm still very much testing out the VP signals and of course you are right it is how I interprate the figures that matters. Lets see what happens with todays chosen pairs:

current time 1410GMT...

1. CABLE: VP has a downward crossover on the PMA5, with reversal of the PTS, diffs, and strength. Neural index still 0 though. I therefore placed an intraday down bet at 6AM GMT to expire at 2000GMT. At the moment it is moving the wrong way.

2. USD/CHF: PMA5 crossed up yesterday, neural index turned to 1. PTS more positive and PTM less negative. I have placed a bull bet to expire in 5 days time that the pair will trade above 1.8 for a 50% gain. So far today it is down, just.

3. AUD/USD: a bit more speculative, but the neural index has turned to 0, and the PTS/M are much less positive, with the diffs now negative. I placed a small intraday down bet at 6.10GMT to expire at 2000. At the moment it is UP.

Hopefully the VP predicted trends will improve later today during the US session.

Hope I'm not boring you all with my novice fixed-odds trades!

cgldsmth
cgld,

Not boring here, please continue your work. I am working on a position trading system currently and trying to filter out the negatives, or at least reduce them to the point that a profitable system can be played out over and over...Continue your work, when a trade doesn't work find out why it didn't, when it does, look for why it did...if it becomes a consistent pattern for 2-3 months, you may have a winner.

Good luck, stay positive, and keep working hard.

drjoe
  • #180
  • Jan 13, 2006 10:11am Jan 13, 2006 10:11am
Quoting Rocket
At this hour (12:30 EST) Vantage point predicted high for the following pairs ... all 4 pairs is within a few pips ... Vantage point has called these right to the quick ... now its up to the market to decide .... It doesnt get any better than this ..

EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY
USD/JPY

I pulled my stop in closer after the GBP/JPY pair moved higher and overall negative JPY sentiment from SAXO .. sentiment that reversed overnight (night here) .. so I was stopped out of AUD/JPY .. now re-entered .. EUR/JPY which showed hardly any volatility last night .. and also has a nice weekly/daily chart for shorting.

Also looking at a few other pairs like EUR/US and EUR/GBP ... VP's predicted range was bang on as well .. exceptions where CHF/USD and GBP/USD
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