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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #226,301
  • May 26, 2010 2:11pm May 26, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting Geppy
agreed... should be funny when the DOW closes red
Im rooting for down as long as 131.50 is not gone. I still have my shorts from yesterday around this price lol
Dr. C
  • #226,302
  • May 26, 2010 2:12pm May 26, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting Geppy
In my opinion IFa hedge is used it should be used as an offensive tool rather than a defensive one....

Even If I'm not concerned, it's really useful post.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #226,303
  • May 26, 2010 2:12pm May 26, 2010 2:12pm
Is there a bear flag on H1 or I am seeing things..
  • #226,304
  • May 26, 2010 2:17pm May 26, 2010 2:17pm
Thank you very much indeed.

Quoting Geppy
They are generally highly correlated due to "risk aversion"... this used to be more true back in the day of juicy premiums as people would take long positions to earn the premium and if/when the DOW sold off hard you'd see large drops in many of the yen crosses as people liquidated their riskier trades....
Hello.
  • #226,305
  • May 26, 2010 2:19pm May 26, 2010 2:19pm
No problem, guys!

Quoting maximinus
Even If I'm not concerned, it's really useful post.
Quoting emene
Thank you very much indeed.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #226,306
  • May 26, 2010 2:24pm May 26, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting Geppy
They are generally highly correlated due to "risk aversion"... this used to be more true back in the day of juicy premiums as people would take long positions to earn the premium and if/when the DOW sold off hard you'd see large drops in many of the yen crosses as people liquidated their riskier trades.

The trades are riskier as more people pile in for the premium because the premium doesn't add up to a ton of cash but you're still exposed to large currency fluctuation risk.

So when we're sailing on calm waters the yen crosses tend to grind...
I agree with Geppy's explanation. But one needs to be careful because in some instances this correlation does not hold 100% - Look at yesterday's NY open - Dow dipped over 200 points, but GJ PA didn't fully reflect that. It didn't even re-test the lows from a couple of hours before the NY open. As much as it was frustrating for the traders expecting a sharp GJ drop, there are reasons for it...
  • #226,307
  • May 26, 2010 2:35pm May 26, 2010 2:35pm
Very very very (did I say very?) true that this correlation is not 100% of the time... there are time-spans where the DOW and yen crosses will "decouple". However, I would have to disagree with you that yesterday was one of those instances (also, it's usually for longer than just one day).

Yesterday G/J dropped throughout Asian and early London. When New York opened, it opened down a couple hundred points... however, the remainder of the day we spent taking those losses back and moving higher and we saw G/J go with it. My argument would be that the drop in the DOW was seen well before the open through the pre-market futures trading much lower and G/J priced this in. When we failed to move any lower than the opening gap down, so did G/J.

De-coupling does happen and it will be very apparent when it does (not to mention everyone in the board will be pointing it out).

Quoting FXjane
I agree with Geppy's explanation. But one needs to be careful because in some instances this correlation does not hold 100% - Look at yesterday's NY open - Dow dipped over 200 points, but GJ PA didn't fully reflect that. It didn't even re-test the lows from a couple of hours before the NY open. As much as it was frustrating for the traders expecting a sharp GJ drop, there are reasons for it...
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #226,308
  • May 26, 2010 2:35pm May 26, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting Geppy
In my opinion IFa hedge is used it should be used as an offensive tool rather than a defensive one. In other words... you should only hedge trades that are showing you a profit rather than ones showing you a loss.

Now this may....
Excellent reply, Geppy.

To me the poster looks like he panicked as the price went up on his short. He decided to hedge against the loss he was taken (Am I correct?). Hedges are usually done at a very similar price IMO. Hedges like the 120 pips apart are panic measures. Notice the long is 120 pips higher up then the short on a clear downtrend!

My way to hedge is to use a the trend to bias against price movement if you Have to hedge. For example if the price is at 130 and the trend is down place 1 lot as a short, then place 0.5 lot as a long. As the trend is down, the short is the least you need to worry about. On my FXCM account I can also place a SL on either.

I've still to learn a lot about hedging but I use the trend as a friend. In the posters hedge, he did the opposite. I hope he gets out of it and learns his lesson without loss.
  • #226,309
  • May 26, 2010 2:36pm May 26, 2010 2:36pm
Almost there

Quoting Scrat

i would like to see this below 129.30 before securing my short positions @ b/e, that's the place where we're out of the woods and continuing down...
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #226,310
  • May 26, 2010 2:40pm May 26, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting Geppy
No problem, guys!

Thanks a LOT everyone for your insights!!!
  • #226,311
  • May 26, 2010 2:40pm May 26, 2010 2:40pm
almost... i'm all eyes and pockets.

Quoting Geppy
Almost there
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #226,312
  • May 26, 2010 2:50pm May 26, 2010 2:50pm
The way it's acting here at 129.50 I'll be surprised if 129 offers any support once 129.30 breaks.

Quoting Scrat
almost... i'm all eyes and pockets.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #226,313
  • May 26, 2010 2:53pm May 26, 2010 2:53pm
Quoting Geppy
The way it's acting here at 129.50 I'll be surprised if 129 offers any support once 129.30 breaks.

Oh I hope so. I like listening to your guys posts, you and Scrat. Helps a lot of us figure where we are at with our trading. Thanks.
There is no greater gift than to be a friend.
  • #226,314
  • May 26, 2010 2:54pm May 26, 2010 2:54pm
Quoting Scrat
ok, we should go down from now on.
Geppy & Scrat, Nice reading of Chart PA -thx. I did short more up @ 130.4, but obviously not enough. I did post possible bullishness earlier, but I don't mind it not occurring. I'd much rather make money than have right forecasts.

Hopefully the S&P, Down end up significantly down ... that'd mean the rally failed, and we should see more selloffs.
  • #226,315
  • May 26, 2010 2:54pm May 26, 2010 2:54pm
You should probably just listen to Scrat... I'm just a wannabe kid who dreams of money (or something along those lines) lol

Quoting AussieAl
Oh I hope so. I like listening to your guys posts, you and Scrat. Helps a lot of us figure where we are at with our trading. Thanks.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #226,316
  • May 26, 2010 2:56pm May 26, 2010 2:56pm
Hay, did I see Karmo in here a little ago? If you see him, tell him I need some more of his patience pills.
There is no greater gift than to be a friend.
  • #226,317
  • May 26, 2010 2:58pm May 26, 2010 2:58pm
Quoting Geppy
You should probably just listen to Scrat... I'm just a wannabe kid who dreams of money (or something along those lines) lol

Yes I did hear that. But sometimes you are right. That makes us more want to work things out for ourselves, and then turn out to be good traders.
There is no greater gift than to be a friend.
  • #226,318
  • May 26, 2010 3:01pm May 26, 2010 3:01pm
Quoting Geppy
You should probably just listen to Scrat... I'm just a wannabe kid who dreams of money (or something along those lines) lol

spot on
  • #226,319
  • May 26, 2010 3:03pm May 26, 2010 3:03pm
Can someone answer me this question??? When you have on your chart, 15 min, 1 hr, ect, all the SMA's in one position, like it sort-of is right now, with the 21, 50, 100 and 200 all above the PA, is that a good indication that there is not a lot of resistance for the imediate TF? I have seen this and try and follow it, and it seems to me that when that occures, there is a nice move?

*** okay, I missed the 200 in the 15 min. But it has passed that now...
There is no greater gift than to be a friend.
  • #226,320
  • May 26, 2010 3:04pm May 26, 2010 3:04pm
Quoting fullhouse
spot on
You too guys are sooo funny. nice banter... unless you are both serious. My guess.... you have some sot of friendship happening, be it freaky or not. hahaha
There is no greater gift than to be a friend.
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