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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #226,281
  • May 26, 2010 11:25am May 26, 2010 11:25am
Quoting Beljevina
I use faststone capture, run it, use 2nd icon from the proggy toolbar to capture the highlighted window. Save the captured area as a png file for viewing clarity. And when creating a post, click 'attachments' use upload, and it will automatically appear.
Thanks!
  • #226,282
  • May 26, 2010 11:28am May 26, 2010 11:28am
Yen Rates
Rates 2150 GMT High Low 12/31

AUD/JPY Australian Dlr 74.66-69 74.55-58 +0.15 75.89 73.73 -10.71
GBP/JPY Sterling 129.80-87 129.87-97 -0.05 130.54 129.10 -13.73
CAD/JPY Canadian Dlr 84.49-56 84.430-30 +0.07 85.47 83.83 -4.57
NZD/JPY New Zealand Dlr 60.01-05 60.36-39 -0.58 61.08 59.77 -11.15


No clear direction yet. Still pulling 20 to 30 pips off the top.
  • #226,283
  • May 26, 2010 11:32am May 26, 2010 11:32am
Quoting fullhouse
here is the aud/jpy view ,,we spike above kkey ress to confirm a bulls signal ...still a bit undecided what they wanna do ..its a big fight going on,but im still stand on a bullsih scenario until proof otherwise...

so here is a pretty clear chart of aud/jpy ..

we form a double bottom on 4 hour with a H&S formation,,so if we would go down then 73.50/73 is my place to add onto longs... then that neckline and the TL is inline for an upside break,,so for the conservative traders ,a break and close above neckline and TL is the way to go ..aggresive...
I'd just like to note a discrepancy in your chart. The portion that you have mentioned as "bulls comfirm" is an upthrust through resistance and closed near it's open well off it's highs, which is a stop running move and a sign of weakness.
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #226,284
  • May 26, 2010 12:01pm May 26, 2010 12:01pm
We need an admin here to control the fire.
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #226,285
  • May 26, 2010 12:11pm May 26, 2010 12:11pm
london closed an hour ago (129.98). again, below last week close (130.03).
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #226,286
  • Edited 12:23pm May 26, 2010 12:19pm | Edited 12:23pm
I see 130.58 as a resistant bugger!

If not taken out, then ranging from @ 130.6 and 128.15. Or even lower lows...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: auslanco based - move sterling daily chart.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #226,287
  • May 26, 2010 12:19pm May 26, 2010 12:19pm
GREECE-PENSIONS/
ATHENS, May 26 (Reuters) - Greece is trying to renegotiate the terms of a drastic pension reform required under the terms of an economic rescue deal agreed this month with the EU and the IMF, senior government officials said.

In the first sign of glitches over the 3-year bailout plan, officials said they wanted the EU and IMF to agree full pensions should be payable after 37 years of contributions instead of 40, as set out in the deal, and allow the reform to be implemented later than foreseen......

http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/Gre...-26T165626Z-EU
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  • #226,288
  • May 26, 2010 12:30pm May 26, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting Geppy
GREECE-PENSIONS/
ATHENS, May 26 (Reuters) - Greece is trying to renegotiate the terms of a drastic pension reform required under the terms of an economic rescue deal agreed this month with the EU and the IMF, senior government officials said.

In the first sign of glitches over the 3-year bailout plan, officials said they wanted the EU and IMF to agree full pensions should be payable after 37 years of contributions instead of 40, as set out in the deal, and allow the reform to be implemented later than foreseen......

http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/Gre...-26T165626Z-EU...

Greece is going to default on loans...They will call it something else and it will be restructured but at least 50 cents on the euro will be defaulted.. I would give it 2 years for it to happen... I have friends who have businesses there in Athens. I had a business there, a local forex company that was bought buy a well known forex company so I know what I am talking about

One of my close family friends is an executive in one of the largest banks and this person has express potential problems in the banking system....

Now if Greece leaves the EMU then the euro I believe would actually strengthen and this would allow Greece to bring back the Drachma and have it at a devalue rate allowing them to become much more competitive in the global market... I love this country and the islands but the way the economy works it will never be competitive...
Traderdesk -
  • #226,289
  • May 26, 2010 12:35pm May 26, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting Traderdesk
Greece is going to default on loans...They will call it something else and it will be restructured but at least 50 cents on the euro will be defaulted..
Now if Greece leaves the EMU then the euro I believe would actually strengthen and this would allow Greece to bring back the Drachma and have it at a devalue rate allowing them to become much more competitive in the global market... I love this country and the islands but the way the economy works it will never be competitive...
Thats pretty radical as no country has left (kick out of the Eurozone). But, that's what it may take to stop Greece from pulling the rest of the continent down!
  • #226,290
  • May 26, 2010 12:36pm May 26, 2010 12:36pm
Within the next two hours we should hit 131 if the bull channel holds that we have on the 15 minute chart.... My one concern is we are consolidating until we work out small overbought bias from yesterday price action....
Traderdesk -
  • #226,291
  • May 26, 2010 12:43pm May 26, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting USTrader
Thats pretty radical as no country has left (kick out of the Eurozone). But, that's what it may take to stop Greece from pulling the rest of the continent down!
Yes I know but Greece has NO money to pay back once the loans that they been provided is used... Greece is just not bringing in enough money to even pay the interest on the loans so they may cut the budget to a point but it will only slow down the economy and the people will not stand for it... Corruption is rampant and taxes will never be collect efficiently until the whole tax system is overhauled... I hear of stories all the time where a tax collector comes in and says your company owes "as an example" 1 million euros but if you give 50,000 in a envelope I will say you owe only 50,000.. This is know as the 1-1 rule... If Greece would just collect the proper taxes it would probably have an additional 60 billion euros per year.... Think of it...

I love Greece but they do not belong in the EMU, in the EU yes but not the EMU...
Traderdesk -
  • #226,292
  • May 26, 2010 12:46pm May 26, 2010 12:46pm
Good afternoon all, need a word of advise here.. made a big mistake and hedged a long position because I didn't want to take the loss (Iknow, I know stupid decision and more stupid opened it without setting a convenient stop loss - noob errors!). Long @ 130.86 hedged @ 129.60

So, 120 pips difference... question I have, for the more experienced: If I close my long position with profit should I close immediately my short or there is possibility we can still dive to 128's?

Thanks for your help... I will never hedge again... lesson learned...
  • #226,293
  • May 26, 2010 1:03pm May 26, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting Leeson
Good afternoon all, need a word of advise here.. made a big mistake and hedged a long position because I didn't want to take the loss (Iknow, I know stupid decision and more stupid opened it without setting a convenient stop loss - noob errors!). Long @ 130.86 hedged @ 129.60

So, 120 pips difference... question I have, for the more experienced: If I close my long position with profit should I close immediately my short or there is possibility we can still dive to 128's?

Thanks for your help... I will never hedge again... lesson...
Depends on how much your usable margin is. I can see both prices being reached within the next 24 hours for a break even. Where else it goes is anyone's guess at the moment.
  • #226,294
  • May 26, 2010 1:24pm May 26, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting Leeson
Good afternoon all, need a word of advise here.. made a big mistake and hedged a long position because I didn't want to take the loss (Iknow, I know stupid decision and more stupid opened it without setting a convenient stop loss - noob errors!). Long @ 130.86 hedged @ 129.60

So, 120 pips difference... question I have, for the more experienced: If I close my long position with profit should I close immediately my short or there is possibility we can still dive to 128's?

Thanks for your help... I will never hedge again... lesson learned......
I can offer my humble opinion (I am not an expert, so take it as such). Hedges are more difficult to deal with than regular trades. You basically have two options, as I see it, when you hedge to lock the losses:

1) Dealing with the hedge to reduce or recover the loss you locked - You should look for a set-up that will give you a high probability that when you drop one leg of the hedge, that PA would move in the direction to reduce the loss. Whether you make or lose money on that leg is not as important as the fact if PA is moving in direction to reduce your losses. If you have more than one lot in the hedged leg, I don’t recommend dropping all the lots at the same time.
2) Put the hedge aside – If the sound rules of money management allow you, put the hedge aside and trade until you make up for the hedged losses. Then you can just simply close the hedge.
- Or combination of 1 & 2, if you feel like that. Good Luck!

Actually, I would welcome the input from the expert traders here on this subject. Can you please let us know your opinions?
  • #226,295
  • May 26, 2010 1:35pm May 26, 2010 1:35pm
ok, we should go down from now on.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #226,296
  • May 26, 2010 1:36pm May 26, 2010 1:36pm
Cool.
Quoting Scrat
ok, we should go down from now on.
  • #226,297
  • May 26, 2010 1:45pm May 26, 2010 1:45pm
In my opinion IFa hedge is used it should be used as an offensive tool rather than a defensive one. In other words... you should only hedge trades that are showing you a profit rather than ones showing you a loss.

Now this may seem backasswards to you, but let me explain. As the ol' mantra goes, "cut your losers and let your winners run"... a slogan most all swing traders live by. However, for some and especially newer traders, it becomes difficult to sit through retracements and watch paper profits dwindle. This causes people to attempt to pick these retracements, close their positions and even ride the opposite direction. This can be quite profitable for a very experienced trader but foolishly dangerous for all others.

My suggestion as far as a hedge as a tool would be to use it to hedge part or all of your winning position when you feel the need to close out on a potential retracement.

Two things will happen:

1. You're correct and your ride the retracement up with your hedge earning you the money your original position would be giving back and then you take off the hedge when the retracement completes and are left with your original winning position.

2. The retracement never comes and you take your hedge off as your original position surpasses new highs or lows (whichever it is) and you lose a small amount on your hedged trade (the cost of piece of mind if you will).

In my opinion, people utilize hedging when they are in trouble and their position is showing a loss. This is the opposite of cutting losers and letting winners run. You're protecting your losing trade and that's just foolish.

But alas, I understand that you have "learned your lesson" and need to maneuver out of your hedge. My advice is to do exactly what FXjane stated.... wait for a high probability trade (as you always should) and when you'd normally enter for that trade... take off the opposite hedge you have on. Eat the loss and let the other position start earning you a profit. It should be easy to take it for a few hundred pips and more than make up for your loss on the hedged portion. That's really all you can do now without becoming emotional and therefore more destructive. If you try to pick tops and bottoms with your hedge it could lead to disaster.


Quoting FXjane
Actually, I would welcome the input from the expert traders here on this subject. Can you please let us know your opinions?
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  • #226,298
  • May 26, 2010 1:46pm May 26, 2010 1:46pm
agreed... should be funny when the DOW closes red

Quoting Scrat
ok, we should go down from now on.
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  • #226,299
  • May 26, 2010 1:57pm May 26, 2010 1:57pm
What is the correlation between the DOW and GJ if I may ask Geppy ?

Quoting Geppy
agreed... should be funny when the DOW closes red
Hello.
  • #226,300
  • May 26, 2010 2:02pm May 26, 2010 2:02pm
They are generally highly correlated due to "risk aversion"... this used to be more true back in the day of juicy premiums as people would take long positions to earn the premium and if/when the DOW sold off hard you'd see large drops in many of the yen crosses as people liquidated their riskier trades.

The trades are riskier as more people pile in for the premium because the premium doesn't add up to a ton of cash but you're still exposed to large currency fluctuation risk.

So when we're sailing on calm waters the yen crosses tend to grind higher but when things get crazy they'll become quite volatile and generally drop hard when they do drop.

Hope that helps... I know it's not a great explanation.

Quoting emene
What is the correlation between the DOW and GJ if I may ask Geppy ?
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