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  • #1,901
  • May 26, 2010 8:07am May 26, 2010 8:07am
Quoting lovejoy80
AJ not looking good...grrr volatility seems to lead to more false breakouts...might have to go back to taking the conservative breakout approach i.e. breakout and then enter on the pullabck to prove that it is a not a false breakout.

.
Definitely waiting for the PB WAS the best choice. S..t !!!
  • #1,902
  • May 26, 2010 8:08am May 26, 2010 8:08am
Quoting ogeid
But don t you still have a portion of the previous long ?

I made exactly the same mistake (I know it does not help ) but as we can not foresee where the market is going, a small BE + is to me better than a 100 pips loss IMO
No, you can see from the picture. Closed both and opened a new one.

Got a combined 2% on those both and risking 1% now, but I was aiming for the stars on my first trade and got cold feet.

And as a little bit off-topic on this oil trade, look what I did when this whole down move started on oil. Played the mini-pin at 86 with a long term goal, but, again, chickened out at a minor H4 pullback at 84.50. Talk about 1500p lost opportunity. And that was on live too. None the less, I got 4% on it, but as I said, was aiming for a longer term move, like now. And did the same mistake. Something I need to correct.
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  • #1,903
  • May 26, 2010 8:16am May 26, 2010 8:16am
That was odd all of a sudden AUD went very weak against the other majors...bit odd behavior...it essentially tanked in strength from being the strongest to the weakest in minutes.

gone long Oil...lets see if the area marked can hold as support.
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  • #1,904
  • May 26, 2010 8:17am May 26, 2010 8:17am
Quoting neutro
No, you can see from the picture. Closed both and opened a new one.

Got a combined 2% on those both and risking 1% now, but I was aiming for the stars on my first trade and got cold feet.

And as a little bit off-topic on this oil trade, look what I did when this whole down move started on oil. Played the mini-pin at 86 with a long term goal, but, again, chickened out at a minor H4 pullback at 84.50. Talk about 1500p lost opportunity. And that was on live too. None the less, I got 4% on it, but as I said, was aiming for a longer term move,...
Yes, but the 86 pin (great entry BTW) after 4 down daily bars, had a 300 pips retrace. Don t you think, you would have taken profit before that ?

Anyway lets be positive, if this one works and we are not chickening it out (I like that) than we have another 1000 pips opp.

Best of pips
  • #1,905
  • May 26, 2010 8:23am May 26, 2010 8:23am
I still favour an breakout on AJ looking at the 1HR bars. Didnt want to take those 1HR pin bars on AU and AJ as there is just too much trouble and choppyness below.
  • #1,906
  • May 26, 2010 8:24am May 26, 2010 8:24am
Quoting lovejoy80
That was odd all of a sudden AUD went very weak against the other majors...bit odd behavior...it essentially tanked in strength from being the strongest to the weakest in minutes.

gone long Oil...lets see if the area marked can hold as support.
Euro still the weakest, even worse that 1 hr ago. AUD lost something. CAD the strongest
  • #1,907
  • May 26, 2010 8:27am May 26, 2010 8:27am
Quoting ogeid
Yes, but the 86 pin (great entry BTW) after 4 down daily bars, had a 300 pips retrace. Don t you think, you would have taken profit before that ?

Anyway lets be positive, if this one works and we are not chickening it out (I like that) than we have another 1000 pips opp.

Best of pips
Well, I'm not saying I would have went for 1500, but was just looking at the opportunity. It takes a lot of experience and vision to go beyond the last bar on the right.

Now I'd settle for moving stop to BE and 300 to 400p for starters.

My vision tells me 75ish is a good place to exit. (I'm skipping 72.5)
  • #1,908
  • May 26, 2010 8:28am May 26, 2010 8:28am
Quoting lovejoy80
I still favour an breakout on AJ looking at the 1HR bars. Didnt want to take those 1HR pin bars on AU and AJ as there is just too much trouble and choppyness below.
Ok, maybe not...lol. Still wouldnt trade those 1HR pins...multiple trouble areas to get through and YM at 1HR support.
  • #1,909
  • May 26, 2010 8:31am May 26, 2010 8:31am
LJ,

did you take the earlier long on AJ on just a break of ppz on the 4hr or did you spot some PA there?

Quoting lovejoy80
Ok, maybe not...lol. Still wouldnt trade those 1HR pins...multiple trouble areas to get through and YM at 1HR support.
  • #1,910
  • May 26, 2010 8:33am May 26, 2010 8:33am
Quoting neutro
Well, I'm not saying I would have went for 1500, but was just looking at the opportunity. It takes a lot of experience and vision to go beyond the last bar on the right.

Now I'd settle for moving stop to BE and 300 to 400p for starters.

My vision tells me 75ish is a good place to exit. (I'm skipping 72.5)
-1% is fine by me. Need to analyze this bucket-full-of-mistakes.
  • #1,911
  • May 26, 2010 8:37am May 26, 2010 8:37am
Quoting neutro
Well, I'm not saying I would have went for 1500, but was just looking at the opportunity. It takes a lot of experience and vision to go beyond the last bar on the right.

Now I'd settle for moving stop to BE and 300 to 400p for starters.

My vision tells me 75ish is a good place to exit. (I'm skipping 72.5)
First we need to have a bloody breakout and this thingy is not reaaly collaborating.

Pring book page 39 figure 4-5 and 4-6 are the potential scenarios. In case of 4-6 you are right 75 is the target. But.. what do I know
  • #1,912
  • May 26, 2010 8:44am May 26, 2010 8:44am
Quoting coolshades
LJ,

did you take the earlier long on AJ on just a break of ppz on the 4hr or did you spot some PA there?
Just the break...no PA. It's an aggresive way of playing breakouts, works best when trend trading rather than breakouts. Normally I'll risk 1% on a pure breakout and then add more if it continues at breaks of further resistance levels or add more if it comes back and tests former resistance as support.

If it proves to be a false breakout then I'll cut quickly i.e. will hardly ever suffer the 1% loss as on a breakout I am looking for a quick high momemtum initial move up.
  • #1,913
  • May 26, 2010 8:51am May 26, 2010 8:51am
Notice how when equity markets are rising EUR is lagging behind but when they are falling EUR being nears its recent lows holds up as one of the strongest. 'People' dont want the EUR to fall any further lower do they...

Glad I took full profit on EC and EA now...EA in particular has retraced hard.
  • #1,914
  • May 26, 2010 10:07am May 26, 2010 10:07am
Closed my oil long from earlier (-1.21%)...a bit impatient but got in long again just now @ 71.31.

It's tough as the min lot size means I'm risking 2.5-3% per trade on average on oil so I become impatient and cut it quickly if goes against me...wont be long (hopefully) before this wont be a problem.

I've started to re-read my journal from the start to see how my trading has changed. I'm only on page 16 so far but can see that I was far more aggresive back then, but the market IMO was much easier to trade with lots of P&V style trading making up the majority of my gains. I seemed to pull the trigger much easier than I do now too...I suppose its working out when to be cautious and when to be more aggresive. I want to start being a bit more aggresive again and start making some big gains hence why re-reading my journal to see what i'm doing differently and to asses whether the market conditions are ripe for trading like I was doing at the start of this journal.
  • #1,915
  • May 26, 2010 10:11am May 26, 2010 10:11am
Why I favour upside breakouts...

(plus equity markets on the rise, gold and oil rising...all a sign that risk appetite is increasing)
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  • #1,916
  • May 26, 2010 10:31am May 26, 2010 10:31am
shish, posting & trading isnt the best for me
was about to post eaud 4hr trade i hesitated taking yday night/today & how i planned to take it when audcad 1hr came up...almost missed my entry lol
something on the 4hr also is to my liking, will watch to see how it plays out atleast till be
will watch this & cut it if price doesnt behave accordingly
cheers

i see u r long again on oil....u should wait for 7118 to be cleared, atleast a 4hr close above it or something
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Simplicity is the key to success
  • #1,917
  • May 26, 2010 11:12pm May 26, 2010 11:12pm
Markets still choppy. Equity markets up in EU session yesterday, down in Us session and up in Asia!

I'm in a UJ short but gonna cut it soon. Should have been far more patient with my Oil longs.

YM closed below 10000 for the first time in the current down move but was again quickly rejected in asia and is back above 10000 again. I wish it would stick to one direction lol!
  • #1,918
  • May 26, 2010 11:18pm May 26, 2010 11:18pm
EU made a double bottom with divergence, I'm currently long.

EG broke the giant wedge and retested, so I'm short.

And I hate myself for the oil trade. That's all.

Are you still long?
  • #1,919
  • May 26, 2010 11:43pm May 26, 2010 11:43pm
Quoting neutro
EU made a double bottom with divergence, I'm currently long.

EG broke the giant wedge and retested, so I'm short.

And I hate myself for the oil trade. That's all.

Are you still long?
No i took a loss and a BE on oil last night...played it badly, no patience.

Went short E/AUD ...we've got LH and LL on 4HR and it's retraced near the TL again. With equities rising AUD and CAd are normally much stronger than EUR etc too

Trade 1: Short EUR/AUD @ 1.4737 SL @1.4835 - 1%

(gonna start detailing my trades like this counting the daily trade number...as found it really hard to follow my trades at times when reading back my journal...will also make sure I post pics all the time even if a while after the event).

Seems the best method at the moment is to buy dips below 10000 on YM and xxx/usd etc.
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  • #1,920
  • May 26, 2010 11:45pm May 26, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting neutro
EU made a double bottom with divergence, I'm currently long.

EG broke the giant wedge and retested, so I'm short.

And I hate myself for the oil trade. That's all.

Are you still long?
Very well spotted on EU. Does your chart on EG look like mine?
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