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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #226,181
  • May 25, 2010 7:35pm May 25, 2010 7:35pm
Quoting Scrat
okay i guess.

normally, yes, new lows, but stay put. 130 is not cleared yet, and even if current bias is bearish it may change anytime. i think 131 is key to upside, and from what i see, i would think 130 will be tested again...
Scrat, On H4 we may see 50ema is yawping price. While 5EMA still below the price, Take care all short
  • #226,182
  • Edited 7:58pm May 25, 2010 7:41pm | Edited 7:58pm
Quoting fullhouse
yip ..target eventually 137.40 ..
short usd/cad aswell
I think I'm gonna put you on ignore for a few weeks, and see how that suits me. I guess the forum's quality will increase with you gone for a while.
I don't know what you're trying to accomplish, get the record number of postings in a record time?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #226,183
  • May 25, 2010 8:38pm May 25, 2010 8:38pm
Morning... Taking a look at the charts I can see several possibilities intraday but will know more on the London opening...

First scenario is that we continue to consolidate today between 128 and 132 with a bias to break 130.50 and retest 132 before closing NY session back down to 130.5 level...

Second scenario is to try to break the new LTL at around 128 and if unsuccessful bounce back to 129.50 level...

3rd scenario is to break either levels which would be surprising for today but you never know so plan accordingly...

I like to go with the first scenario and will play it once Frankfurt and then London come on line..... I am bias now to buy but like always I am looking for better R/R levels...

Now tomorrow for me is the day we should test either major trend lines... Tomorrow will be another day of 500+ pips activity for the day where most of it usually occurs in the NY session.... Now if we look at prior PA on Feb. 4th we had a similar setup where cable was bias for the day and dropped 500+ pips... and another 100 on Friday so if this would occur tomorrow where we had a strong bias reaction then for the G/Y I would expect us by Friday to hit the magnet 125 level that traders are fascinated with...

On the other hand if the bias is bullish then I would expect to see 135 to be touched by Friday....One other piece of info, VIX is heading back down and has close below 35. The last several days the close has been a lower low so even though it is not yet a long trend at least fear is starting to recede and with COT levels so oversold or overbought to the extremes we can have a strong retracement on cable and euro crosses...
Traderdesk -
  • #226,184
  • May 25, 2010 8:38pm May 25, 2010 8:38pm
here's the thing: medium term, we are indeed at a critical area. weekly vwap is here in this area, 131 would mean a higher high on daily chart, price action on daily suggests strong support here. no doubt about the importance of the area.

BUT...!!! you must be aware that price can go either way. i said it before - the trend is intact until proven otherwise. for me, this otherwise is 131. no 50 ma on h4, no 5 ma on daily, no x ma on yearly. PRICE ACTION is king. and until i see a break of 131, my bias is bearish. as simple as that.

Quoting special0nefx
Scrat, On H4 we may see 50ema is yawping price. While 5EMA still below the price, Take care all short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g-j_weekly-vwap.gif Size: 16 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #226,185
  • May 25, 2010 8:58pm May 25, 2010 8:58pm
Quoting Scrat
here's the thing: medium term, we are indeed at a critical area. weekly vwap is here in this area, 131 would mean a higher high on daily chart, price action on daily suggests strong support here. no doubt about the importance of the area.

BUT...!!! you must be aware that price can go either way. i said it before - the trend is intact until proven otherwise. for me, this otherwise is 131. no 50 ma on h4, no 5 ma on daily, no x ma on yearly. PRICE ACTION is king. and until i see a break of 131, my bias is bearish. as simple as that.
Can you attach the Vwap indi?
  • #226,186
  • May 25, 2010 9:07pm May 25, 2010 9:07pm
First post, so be gentle.

I have spent many months researching recurring patterns in forex prices -- with much skepticism. However, there are many successful pattern-traders, so I have not been able to disregard the merits completely.

Overall, I have chosen to model patterns from a self-similarity approach.
(As a start, point your browser to here).

After programming and debugging, I have some results I would like to share (and document for myself for the record).

Without going into too much detail (since this might all turn out to be rubbish) I predict GBPJPY to fall beginning London session and continue falling through the next 24 hours --- that is, not begin the uptrend until NY Thursday.

I'm not looking to get into a heated debate with anyone, so if I have offended, please ignore this post.

The next few hours will give an indication of the validity of this method (in my current implementation).

Cheers
  • #226,187
  • May 25, 2010 9:15pm May 25, 2010 9:15pm
Quoting special0nefx
Can you attach the Vwap indi?
Hiya Scrat,

Don't you need a charting service to provide you that info (chaching monthly)?

BTW, this is VWAP (volume weighted average price) your talking about, right?

Making sure we're on the same page...
  • #226,188
  • May 25, 2010 9:37pm May 25, 2010 9:37pm
Quoting USTrader
Hiya Scrat,

Don't you need a charting service to provide you that info (chaching monthly)?

BTW, this is VWAP (volume weighted average price) your talking about, right?

Making sure we're on the same page...
Enjoy 1st before resume of PA
Inserted Video
  • #226,189
  • May 25, 2010 10:35pm May 25, 2010 10:35pm
Quoting eco prof
First post, so be gentle.

I have spent many months researching recurring patterns in forex prices -- with much skepticism. However, there are many successful pattern-traders, so I have not been able to disregard the merits completely.

Overall, I have chosen to model patterns from a self-similarity approach.
(As a start, point your browser to here).

After programming and debugging, I have some results I would like to share (and document for myself for...
Hi and welcome!

I looked over the PDF on Matching of quasi-periodic time series patterns by exchange of block-sorting signatures (mouthful!!!).
It indicates (2) primary steps for the SEA: Establishing a signature with a time series of magnitude with portions sampled during a fixed time. It would seem these would be our TF in our forex pairs.
Then there is the shape exchange and comparison between, I would assume, different TF's quantified.
Then, by using the SEA algo, you are 'forecasting' where the forex pair should go.

Interested on how you would apply to FX pair the following statement:
Quote from PDF:
"Another interesting aspect of the proposed method is that
no parameters are required to match (compare) two time
series using SEA."

Very intriguing!!!
  • #226,190
  • May 25, 2010 10:53pm May 25, 2010 10:53pm
Quoting eco prof
First post, so be gentle.

After programming and debugging, I have some results I would like to share (and document for myself for the record).

Without going into too much detail (since this might all turn out to be rubbish) I predict GBPJPY to fall beginning London session and continue falling through the next 24 hours --- that is, not begin the uptrend until NY Thursday.

The next few hours will give an indication of the validity of this method (in my current implementation).

Cheers
Could you clarify a range of time (0900-1200 GMT) to have a specific target (for GBP/JPY - @ 125)?

That would be sweet with an index of the strength of that time/target.
  • #226,191
  • May 25, 2010 10:58pm May 25, 2010 10:58pm
no, and yes.

Quoting USTrader
Hiya Scrat,

Don't you need a charting service to provide you that info (chaching monthly)?

BTW, this is VWAP (volume weighted average price) your talking about, right?

Making sure we're on the same page...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #226,192
  • May 25, 2010 11:09pm May 25, 2010 11:09pm
Yes,

That is what I am looking forward to being able to do.

In the meantime, I am just trying to get a handle on the robustness of the algorithm.

As an example, I am using TF60 as the query time series for GBPJPY. Since my first post, I have updated the the forecast.

The newer forecast still has GBPJPY dropping throughout London (although not as much), but now has large INCREASE through the following 24 hours.

Quite a big difference, I know.

As I get better forecasts (and am confident I won't waffle so much), I will also report expected timings of trend changes.

The corresponding price targets are a little more difficult to tease out since I am using normalized series (but I recognize the importance of price targets for trading, so I will work for a good approximation.)
  • #226,193
  • May 25, 2010 11:45pm May 25, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting eco prof
Yes,

That is what I am looking forward to being able to do.

In the meantime, I am just trying to get a handle on the robustness of the algorithm.

As an example, I am using TF60 as the query time series for GBPJPY. Since my first post, I have updated the the forecast.

The newer forecast still has GBPJPY dropping throughout London (although not as much), but now has large INCREASE through the following 24 hours.

Quite a big difference, I know.

As I get better forecasts (and am confident I won't waffle so much), I will also report expected timings...
Got it! Hopefully, this could augment the different trading strategies all of us use. I'll keep an eye on ya!

W.I.P.
  • #226,194
  • May 25, 2010 11:52pm May 25, 2010 11:52pm
Quoting Kofmaster
I will watch closely on this daily close. If it close above these 2 levels. 129.89 & 130.32 I will change sentiments to bullish. Vice versa.
Price still close below these 2 levels. Price is still below H4 Gann. I wouldn't ask myself why not short. I will ask myself why long??
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #226,195
  • May 25, 2010 11:57pm May 25, 2010 11:57pm
Quoting Kofmaster
Price still close below these 2 levels. Price is still below H4 Gann. I wouldn't ask myself why not short. I will ask myself why long??
I have been looking at the Daily Gann of 132.8 and my Daily R2 of 132.36 for a break of those levels before looking at Longer term long positions.
  • #226,196
  • May 26, 2010 12:00am May 26, 2010 12:00am
For now, scalping from 130 to 129.5.

Happy with these pips!
  • #226,197
  • Edited 12:10am May 26, 2010 12:07am | Edited 12:10am
Testing the DP 129.4 again and I'm locking in profits and letting the rest ride!

Gnight all! I'll be back after some shut eye!

  • #226,198
  • May 26, 2010 12:19am May 26, 2010 12:19am
from 1 hour TF to month the gann hi lo has crossed up and below the price in all these time frames the 50 EMA is above the prices. the bears are in control. We must see new low today has God has told me and also my chat.
Quoting Scrat
the trend must be assumed intact until proven otherwise. in my view, 131 is the last resistance, so until this one is taken i will short all rallies...
since i had a confirmation for short, and r/r was soooooo good...

I

TOOK

THE

SHORT

.
  • #226,199
  • May 26, 2010 12:26am May 26, 2010 12:26am
Am I the only one to see a triangle formed on H1 ?
Hello.
  • #226,200
  • May 26, 2010 12:35am May 26, 2010 12:35am
I could see that london closed at 129.02 that is the candle before the one you said. We are in daylight saving now. don't forget

Quoting Scrat
first *support* is london close from yesterday - 128.99/69. if we go below, then 127.95/63; and if we go below that, hello new low !

btw, yesterday (tuesday), all three major sessions closed BELOW last weekly close (130.03):
- tokyo - 127.94
- london - 128.99
- ny - 129.98... even with that bullsh*t rally, still couldn't close above 130.03.

if we are to go up, i need to see a more convincing price action. but until then, i am shorting all rallies.
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