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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,541
  • May 24, 2010 8:05am May 24, 2010 8:05am
Quoting Gro
Hi Zoran

So you do not looking for "secrets" and apply what FTI said me "Abraham not have to sacrifice his only son".

Regards

"I'm still praying that might not be more worship, than wisdom." :o)
... and is thus properly "I'm still praying that might not be more wisdom, than .worship"

Regards
  • #15,542
  • May 24, 2010 9:16am May 24, 2010 9:16am
Quoting Baifu

I read “it cannot be obtained inductively from experience, nor by any deductive calculation”
OK, sound like it's about knowing people in the right places.
  • #15,543
  • May 24, 2010 10:16am May 24, 2010 10:16am
Inserted Video
  • #15,544
  • May 24, 2010 10:44am May 24, 2010 10:44am
Quoting Zoran
OK, sound like it's about knowing people in the right places.
You got it, can't do business in China without guan xi 關系
  • #15,545
  • May 24, 2010 2:23pm May 24, 2010 2:23pm
Hi Friends,

not sure if the following is very helpful, but it is an observation I regularly make on my own thinking and on the discussions of this thread:

We tend dramatically to make things much more complex, than they are meant to be. More complex as finally needed.

The possible reason could be, that we are trying to interprete nearly every sentence/word/hint fti has given to us. But from my findings fti just tried to give us a very basic/fundamental lesson:

  1. Explore yourself and find yourself. Find an arrangement with your scorpions.
  2. Feel the market and dance it. Don't use your head too much. Try to get in sync with the market and act. Your brain is not your best friend, when trying to dance (also in real life ;-))
  3. Don't be predictive at any time.
    Be nimble and patient.
  4. Use wise and safe money management.
  5. Stay to the basics

Because we have all very different backgrounds, culture, experiences and leraning techniques, he used several different explanations, examples and pictures for allways the same message, just to adress our individual needs.
He came from different directions (Gann, Elliot, MA's) just to give us a chance to enter his bus, whereever we have been waiting, to finally join the journey.

But his message is just what I have mentioned in my bullet list above.

If you have found your way to "feel the market" it does not matter if you get in sync with your lady based on seeing spirals within spirals on your charts. If you have detected any kind of self-similarity or you use a M5 or M15 chart or a set of unbelievable 8 timeframes per pair.

It does not matter, if you are deploying your troops based on a simple fibonacci skew, or an exponential fibo skew or what ever. I guess he only meant, use a progression. In some situations you have to use a stronger progression, in others a softer one. And the simple fibonacci skewing is a good point for starting with.

Again: His message is just what I have mentioned in my bullet list above.

He repeated a hundred times "stay to the basics". That does not necessarily mean that there are much more complicated things to learn. From my point of view it does mean: Keep it just that simple and it will work for you. (well - I know that there is a lot of stuff we have not heared about, espicially when you have to manage your risks. Delta-Hedging belongs to that category. But that's Dealers knowledge ....)

Rereading the thread has once again brought the finding:

Stay to the basics - don't try to complicate anything.
It is just that simple: Feel the market and dance it.
If you do not feel the market - stay out and do more practice.

Sorry for my posting.
Do not want to affect/attack anyone or anything.

Well - of course I can be completely off,
but that is my understanding, my 0.02EUR.

CU,
MaMood

  • #15,546
  • May 24, 2010 3:05pm May 24, 2010 3:05pm
Thanks MaMood for your thoughts. I have been on the side lines for over a week now because I am not sure where all this conversationm about spirals was going (I tried to research it, but to no avail). Your comment about not complicating things is excellent. Good trading everyone -- and keep it simple.
  • #15,547
  • May 24, 2010 3:08pm May 24, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

not sure if the following is very helpful, but it is an observation I regularly make on my own thinking and on the discussions of this thread:

We tend dramatically to make things much more complex, than they are meant to be. More complex as finally needed.

The possible reason could be, that we are trying to interprete nearly every sentence/word/hint fti has given to us. But from my findings fti just tried to give us a very basic/fundamental lesson:[list][*]Explore yourself and find yourself. Find an arrangement with your scorpions.[*]Feel...
LOL why is it when every time someone comes in and try to say something good, always says it in an apologetic tone.

MaMood, I don't think you are off by any measure. What you have seen in the recent development in this thread is the other extreme of what you see in a typical systems thread.

The problem (for most) really lies in feeling the market, so difficult to define isn't it ? Feel what ? And being human, emotions doesn't help either. On what basis should the thinking process be ? Surely it cannot be about skews and how you will rescue every badly timed entry ? I agree that with practice, one can master the trade, however, it can only be possible if we are practicing the right stuff.

I do not want to repeat some stuff that's been said here, also for the fear of appearing like an idiot on a public forum. How about pondering on these points ? Let's think about the thread starter (fti). What he used to do, what was the function of his job ? Why he says what he says ? Are you sure he won't try to "smoke" you ? (don't take the last question in a negative way)

MaMood I look forward to your perspective about spirals. And I wonder how is Zoran getting on with his quest for the "holy spiral grail".

regards
  • #15,548
  • May 24, 2010 3:20pm May 24, 2010 3:20pm
Ah, finally.
  • #15,549
  • May 24, 2010 4:41pm May 24, 2010 4:41pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah

MaMood I look forward to your perspective about spirals. And I wonder how is Zoran getting on with his quest for the "holy spiral grail".

regards
Hi Mark

I have gone as far as I want regarding spiral within spiral - and I have my understanding but I can't be sure it's correct. Without feedback there is no point continuing as I don't have the luxury of time. At the moment I am reading the bible so I'll have to delay re-reading this thread and Tunnel Thru the air. That's why I wanted a discussion here so we can cover more ground as a group than individually.

When it comes to the basics of this thread, I believe I have a good understanding. The whole discussion about spiral within spiral was prompted by fti and his comment about our lack of discussion regarding it - to reread the Tunnel book and discover the "Gann secret". All I can say is, during that time I noticed trend reversal signs - DOW, AUD and others. I suspect there is a way to "hedge" on these longer term trend reversals to assist with capital on the daily short sword battles. Essentially, we are managing two spirals, so spiral within spiral. That is my basic undertanding although I'm not sure whether I'm correct or not but I'll leave it there unless I get more clues. I did something similar over a year ago but I didn't consider it a "hedge" - it was just trading on different timeframes (although at that time I was buying into the lows and made calculations where I couldn't be taken out and became stronger if it went against me). I considered it an AOW strategy.
  • #15,550
  • May 24, 2010 5:41pm May 24, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

not sure if the following is very helpful, but it is an observation I regularly make on my own thinking and on the discussions of this thread:

We tend dramatically to make things much more complex, than they are meant to be. More complex as finally needed.

The possible reason could be, that we are trying to interprete nearly every sentence/word/hint fti has given to us. But from my findings fti just tried to give us a very basic/fundamental lesson:[list][*]Explore yourself and find yourself. Find an arrangement with your scorpions.[*]Feel...
Hi MaMood

... "simple and strong"

PS All of you are tracking cycles here in the thread?
  • #15,551
  • May 24, 2010 7:08pm May 24, 2010 7:08pm
OK, let's do some trading. Been trading the E/$ south for ever now, but we may be running out of gas until it can get through the conjested area it is entering now (maybe from 2350 to 2300?). There may be some good range trading opportunities. Hope you are all trading well and getting your share of this excellent market.
  • #15,552
  • May 24, 2010 7:44pm May 24, 2010 7:44pm
Tunnel in the air?

Inserted Video


Rgs,

Textor
  • #15,553
  • May 25, 2010 1:11am May 25, 2010 1:11am
Quoting textor
Tunnel in the air?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S25tlrvqP_8&feature=fvw

Rgs,

Textor
overtone singing (aliquot sound - sample)
http://www.alikvotnispektrum.cz/
  • #15,554
  • May 25, 2010 2:51am May 25, 2010 2:51am
Hi and good morning Friends!

No electricity in my region at the moment.
Running on batteries for 20 minutes now.
Hope they bring it uop again before my UPS is running out of energy too.

Wish you a successful trading day!

CU.
MaMood
  • #15,555
  • May 25, 2010 2:52am May 25, 2010 2:52am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Friends,

not sure if the following is very helpful, but it is an observation I regularly make on my own thinking and on the discussions of this thread:

We tend dramatically to make things much more complex, than they are meant to be. More complex as finally needed.


The possible reason could be, that we are trying to interprete nearly every sentence/word/hint fti has given to us. But from my findings fti just tried to give us a very basic/fundamental lesson:[list][*]Explore yourself and find yourself. Find an arrangement with your scorpions.[*]Feel...
well said my friend... people just cannot control ego sometimes
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,556
  • May 25, 2010 4:35am May 25, 2010 4:35am
Quoting fti
sama sama adik.

remember, stay true to basics.
Don't be like the rest.
Be like the best.
You do not owe anyone anything.
So you do not need discuss what you had learned.
Much discussion will derail you.
You keep to basics and develop as you progress from your understanding. Reread often.
Always protecting book.
rule 1 preservation of capital
rule 2 preservation of capital
rule 3 do not forget rule No 1.
Let the intelligent people , learn the hard way.

You are right in your observations.
It was so when good dealers were trained. They take the...
Hi fti,

i will humbly do what you've said sir.

godspeed!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,557
  • May 25, 2010 5:38am May 25, 2010 5:38am
Demo mode:

Morning campaign squared, short E/U, 1260 troops, with wind from start, highest skew level 11 (89 troops)
76 pip drop from first entry to last exit, campaign harvested 761 pips and 2.7% to book. More aggressive in attack therefore slightly better €/pip ratio than yesterday.

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #15,558
  • Edited 10:37pm May 25, 2010 9:32pm | Edited 10:37pm
Quoting Zoran
Hi Mark

I have gone as far as I want regarding spiral within spiral - and I have my understanding but I can't be sure it's correct. Without feedback there is no point continuing as I don't have the luxury of time.
I have to agree, In my first attempt to discuss spirals and cycles I tried to give a visual by applying it to what I think Im seeing and the boss tells me Im not only confusing myself but others.
I thought I was getting the idea of but the cabash was put on that .

To tell ya the truth I dont know what to think except to try to clear my head of what I think Im seeing, ( like for example here we are back at 2178 isnt that a spiral ? ) and reread the first 200 or so pages.
  • #15,559
  • May 25, 2010 10:08pm May 25, 2010 10:08pm
Quoting lilpip
I have to agree, In my first attempt to discuss spirals and cycles I tried to give a visual by applying it to what I think Im seeing and the boss tells me Im not only confusing myself but others.
I thought I was getting the idea of but the cabash was put on that .

To tell ya the truth I dont know what to think except to try to clear my head of what I think Im seeing, ( like for example here we are back at 2178 isnt that a spiral ? ) and reread the first 200 or so pages.


note taken 2178 area.
consider me a complete newbie to this thread because quite frankly i'm not going to read through all 2billion pages of it. the 'confusion' that y'all have after all these pages is testament to the information given is unlikely to make me wet my pants. saying that, i have kept a half-interested / half-saddened eye on the thread over time.

spiral within spiral. *blah blah to english transation*.... fractals. not some picture on a chart where you draw ovals and then another oval further out that conveniently touches the tops of a few candlesticks. would spirals within spirals not simply be what anyone else would call 'fractals'. have i missed that part of the discussion?

if you play a resistance on a small fractal and lose, then step out to a larger fractal around it and have another shot. One would expect that at some point a resistance that will hold will eventually go for a run, and to then try to ride that fractal as much of it's distance will generate pips in the pocket. it slows the game down which may be a good thing for some.

then again, ignore me because i'm a taf beginner like i said, so if this has been covered somewhere in the previous labyrinth of posts then sorry.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,560
  • May 25, 2010 10:43pm May 25, 2010 10:43pm
Quoting nubcake
consider me a complete newbie to this thread because quite frankly i'm not going to read through all 2billion pages of it. the 'confusion' that y'all have after all these pages is testament to the information given is unlikely to make me wet my pants. saying that, i have kept a half-interested / half-saddened eye on the thread over time.

spiral within spiral. *blah blah to english transation*.... fractals. not some picture on a chart where you draw ovals and then another oval further out that conveniently touches the tops of a few candlesticks....
Im pretty simple and Im probably not understanding you but that doesnt sound right.
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