Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 777 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,521
  • May 23, 2010 8:39am May 23, 2010 8:39am
Quoting lilpip
Thanks for the reminder.
Like I said an apprentice with limited experience, sharing his viewpoint.
However, this is the level Im at and how interpet her movement through the week.
Im a work still in progress.

Again forgive me for the bastardization as I attempt to apply what Im learning.
Hi lilpip

"Line(price) is not a wall", only the probability.Therefore, we build a "tunnel in the air" at rescue and do the same in the attack.Research without prediction = good value.Each cycle has a smaller cycle and is part of a larger cycle.

Regards
  • #15,522
  • May 23, 2010 12:04pm May 23, 2010 12:04pm
Some people will find this article interesting.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cen...self-defeating
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #15,523
  • May 23, 2010 12:14pm May 23, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting Gro
Hi lilpip

"Line(price) is not a wall", only the probability.Therefore, we build a "tunnel in the air" at rescue and do the same in the attack.Research without prediction = good value.Each cycle has a smaller cycle and is part of a larger cycle.

Regards
I thought thats how I described it in prior post.
The daily cycle is part of the weekly cycle which is part of the monthly cycle.
Also going on the monthly is part of the quarterly and quarterly part of the yearly cycle.

Obviously I have a lot to learn but I was just sharing how I keep track of where we are in trends and adding my 2 cents to the spiral and cycle conversation (as limited it is), maybe someone else can share how they attempt to do so.
  • #15,524
  • May 23, 2010 12:24pm May 23, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting luSan
Some people will find this article interesting.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cen...self-defeating
Dollar sales against it's zero interest rate, were a primary driver for the DOW. As the Euro crashed, market participants cashed out those swaps seeking safety back in the greenback until the unforeseen future shows itself. This was not limited to just the Euro but mostly all pairs have seen risk aversion Dollar repatriation. Do you think they want to park it there?

Look around to see where the money flowed, obviously back into the dollar, but gold as well has been pushed to new highs, with other metals soaring as well.

New correlations are merging, look for them to understand your surroundings. For the moment you have two currencies at nada interest, one looks or needs to rise, put that in your 3k pipe and smoke it,

regards,
  • #15,525
  • May 23, 2010 12:29pm May 23, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting auxesis
Dollar sales against it's zero interest rate, were a primary driver for the DOW. As the Euro crashed, market participants cashed out those swaps seeking safety back in the greenback until the unforeseen future shows itself. This was not limited to just the Euro but mostly all pairs have seen risk aversion Dollar repatriation.

Look around to see where the money flowed, obviously back into the dollar, but gold as well has been pushed to new highs, with other metals soaring as well.

New correlations are merging, look for them to understand your...
Thanks for you comments.
I cashed out almost at the peak.
now just dollars and gold as hedge.
I feel that the market is at the brink.
oh well...I moved to the south...
now I just need to set up my garden
and execute my 2nd amendment rights!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #15,526
  • May 23, 2010 12:30pm May 23, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting lilpip
Thanks for the reminder.
Like I said an apprentice with limited experience, sharing his viewpoint.
However, this is the level Im at and how interpet her movement through the week.
Im a work still in progress.

Again forgive me for the bastardization as I attempt to apply what Im learning.
Don't feel too bad lilpip. I don't think its a coincidence that there has been so many variations on what has been taught.
  • #15,527
  • May 23, 2010 12:37pm May 23, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting Deusomega
Don't feel too bad lilpip. I don't think its a coincidence that there has been so many variations on what has been taught.
I dont.
Im at where Im at and moving ahead and one day I will be able to understand and apply things for what they are.
thanks
  • #15,528
  • Edited 3:28pm May 23, 2010 1:22pm | Edited 3:28pm
Some weekend news for Euro....



Spain Lender



V

PS: can anyone recomend good news service ....semd BOJ is talkign about yen intervention again....dont know how to get the news firsthand...MaMood what all news service u use...
  • #15,529
  • May 23, 2010 7:52pm May 23, 2010 7:52pm
A quick Euro trade for about 1%.

2nd leg snookered me, shouldn't have, set a hard stop which was hit when leaving the screen for a few minutes, then mistimed and pulled 2nd wave attack after bad entry, failed to reenter on the break, no focus, should have been a nice profit.

fwiw
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100523eur.JPG Size: 160 KB
  • #15,530
  • Edited 3:03am May 24, 2010 2:50am | Edited 3:03am
Quoting Gro
Hi FTI

I found this Gann site:

http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/gann.html

Please can you assess the value of information this site?

Regards

PS "As Abraham knew his son"?
Gro, most of what I read is based on rigidity. When I read the following, at the beginning:

"Never trade in the direction of the trend on its third day."

I realised it was just the normal spin about Gann's work and not very valuable. It's the red herring.
  • #15,531
  • May 24, 2010 3:29am May 24, 2010 3:29am
Quoting Deusomega
Don't feel too bad lilpip. I don't think its a coincidence that there has been so many variations on what has been taught.
I think we are witnessing Sun Tze in action here. The first time the concubine armies erred Sun Tze said may be the instructions wasn’t clear and explained again, when they erred a second time, beheading!

Earlier in the thread when someone erred fti would go over the basics. Now that he has done that several times and said all has been given in the first 200 pages of the thread, if we err we will be ignored or beheaded

But never orphaned I hope

Rgs
Baifu
  • #15,532
  • May 24, 2010 3:33am May 24, 2010 3:33am
Quoting Zoran
Gro, most of what I read is based on rigidity. When I read the following, at the beginning:

"Never trade in the direction of the trend on its third day."

I realised it was just the normal spin about Gann's work and not very valuable. It's the red herring.
AOW Chapter 13:

“4. Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge.

5. Now this foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits; ……… “

Gann is spirits

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #15,533
  • May 24, 2010 4:01am May 24, 2010 4:01am
Quoting Zoran
Gro, most of what I read is based on rigidity. When I read the following, at the beginning:

"Never trade in the direction of the trend on its third day."

I realised it was just the normal spin about Gann's work and not very valuable. It's the red herring.
Hi Zoran

Gann showed excellent performance.FTI wrote There are many mutations (like here in the thread ).
"Never trade in the direction of the trend on its third day." E/$ he was two days rally up (except Sunday)?
I would be happy if he FTI was willing to explain "square of nine".FTI called this picture "best".It's what interests me.

But of course technique used by the FTI is beyond prediction - "the tunnel of the air"

PS Gann traded at an average 16 trade a day.How many hours left, when deducted sleep?

Regards
  • #15,534
  • May 24, 2010 5:49am May 24, 2010 5:49am
Demo mode:

Morning campaign – 506 pips, 1.1% profit

High pip low € due to downsized troop size: 1 troop = 4% equity, or equity*50 leverage = 1250 troops.

This conservative MM is good for defence (gunpowder to skew to stay close to market) but underperforms when I have wind at my back because I have not learnt attack – cannot tell breakout momentum from duck sweep thrusts in the short charts and spiral out aggressively.

Rgs
Bafu
  • #15,535
  • May 24, 2010 5:51am May 24, 2010 5:51am
Gro, Gann never really revealed his methods so all of these Gann Studies you read about are people attempting to figure it out. Since most try to use it in a predictive manner (such as the sqaure of 9), it goes beyond the teachings of this thread and steers towards the fallacy.

The few posts fti referenced regarding Gann demonstrated that he traded in the now and not predictively. He was nimble as his trades were relatively short but with a high success rate. Also, regarding the law of vibration, which in its basic form is the feel for the market.

Again, fti has reiterated - stick to the basics and work from there. Many in this thread are constantly introducing old habits that are not part of the teachings here - however it is difficult at times due to lack of guidance.

Since fti recently referred to the bible regarding trees that bear good fruit, I'd like to extend on that with something I read not too long ago (in the bible also). I believe it came from matthew:13 and Mark:4 (someone who knows may want to confirm).

"A farmer went out to sow his seed. 4As he was scattering the seed, some fell along the path, and the birds came and ate it up. 5Some fell on rocky places, where it did not have much soil. It sprang up quickly, because the soil was shallow. 6But when the sun came up, the plants were scorched, and they withered because they had no root. 7Other seed fell among thorns, which grew up and choked the plants. 8Still other seed fell on good soil, where it produced a crop—a hundred, sixty or thirty times what was sown. 9He who has ears, let him hear."

As explained:

Those on the rock are the ones who receive the Word with joy when they hear it, but they have no root. They believe for a while, but in the time of testing they fall away.

The seed that fell among thorns stands for those who hear, but as they go on their way they are choked by life's worries, riches and pleasures, and they do not mature.

But the seed on good soil stands for those with a noble and good heart, who hear the Word, retain it, and by persevering produce a crop. Luke 8:11-15

--

The seeds are in this thread so all I can suggest is to plant them in furtile soil. Give it time to grow and become stronger.
  • #15,536
  • Edited 6:34am May 24, 2010 6:17am | Edited 6:34am
Quoting Zoran
Gro, Gann never really revealed his methods so all of these Gann Studies you read about are people attempting to figure it out....
Hi Zoran

So you do not looking for "secrets" and apply what FTI said me "Abraham not have to sacrifice his only son".

Regards

"I'm still praying that might not be more worship, than wisdom." :o)
  • #15,537
  • May 24, 2010 6:52am May 24, 2010 6:52am
Quoting Gro
Hi Zoran

So you do not looking for "secrets" and apply what FTI said me "Abraham not have to sacrifice his only son".

Regards

"I'm still praying that might not be more worship, than wisdom." :o)
What secrets? Ganns? From my understanding, fti's method is not too dissimilar to Gann's method.

I'm not looking for any secrets as such but I try to keep an open mind - to explore at a deeper level. I have my understanding and some of it may not be correct but it should all develop with perseverance.

Is Abraham's test one of loyalty?
  • #15,538
  • May 24, 2010 7:00am May 24, 2010 7:00am
Quoting Zoran
Is Abraham's test one of loyalty?
Don't forget Isaac, by the time of Abraham's testing Isaac was a young man. He allowed himself to be bound by Abraham and submitted to his fathers wishes.

regards,
  • #15,539
  • May 24, 2010 7:04am May 24, 2010 7:04am
Quoting Baifu
AOW Chapter 13:

“4. Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge.

5. Now this foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits; ……… “

Gann is spirits

Rgs,
Baifu
Baifu, how do we gain foreknowledge of the market? Do we use a scout to get a feel for it? Is it our experience? Our use of spirals to protect us and help us manouver? Having sufficient capitalisation? This is all foreknowledge isn't it? Knowing the market can throw anything at us and being prepared for it.
  • #15,540
  • May 24, 2010 8:02am May 24, 2010 8:02am
Quoting Zoran
Baifu, how do we gain foreknowledge of the market? Do we use a scout to get a feel for it? Is it our experience? Our use of spirals to protect us and help us manouver? Having sufficient capitalisation? This is all foreknowledge isn't it? Knowing the market can throw anything at us and being prepared for it.
5. Now this foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits; it cannot be obtained inductively from experience, nor by any deductive calculation.

6. Knowledge of the enemy's dispositions can only be obtained from other men.

7. Hence the use of spies, of whom there are five classes: (1) Local spies; (2) inward spies; (3) converted spies;(4) doomed spies; (5) surviving spies.

Zoran,

I think in this context foreknowledge means the NOW knowledge of the battlefield. The following paragraph equates it with knowing the enemy’s dispositions and can only be obtained from other men - FTI’s scout and dance.

I read “it cannot be obtained inductively from experience, nor by any deductive calculation” as meaning analysis (TA, chart reading, MM, ……), though part of “calculations in the temple”, do not assure knowledge of THIS BATTLE (TA fallacy – no predictiveness, VARIANCE). Not denying that temple work is essential and has to be internalized so we master the art of extemporaneous response and make no mistake. Sorry if it all sounds garbled, busy minding my spy in the bull camp and testing “doomed spy”.

Just my understanding at the moment, open to correction and other interpretations.

Rgs,
Baifu
27 traders viewing now