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Razors Journal - Basic trading with PA at S/R

  • #421
  • May 18, 2010 8:00pm May 18, 2010 8:00pm
Quoting Razor_trader
Just looking at the chart posted above there was also an IB that could have been traded later in the day or you could have taken the breakout and pullback of the range which would have worked out just as well and been good for 100+ pips.

Razor
Yep nice work Razor i missed my 4hIB on the gbp was asleep, also missed the u/j and g/j, but i still have a couple from earlier going on the e/u, a/u, e/j, u/ch, and u/cad, all free trades now, so far so good, been a nice start to the week.
  • #422
  • May 18, 2010 8:34pm May 18, 2010 8:34pm
Took off another portion of the trade at the 200 mark. Account is now a solid 24% up with BE locked in on the rest.
  • #423
  • May 20, 2010 9:25am May 20, 2010 9:25am
Ok short twice today. First was the Inside bar as posted on the DIBs thread. Second was after this nice reversal twin pin bar which had what I want. Strong move up, strong rejection and now strong momentum down. This will hopefully be the move that will break the lows.

Razor
Attached Image
  • #424
  • May 20, 2010 9:26am May 20, 2010 9:26am
I didnt even get to finish that post and we breached the low of the week.

Lets see what happens. DOW is tanking also

Razor
  • #425
  • May 20, 2010 10:02am May 20, 2010 10:02am
Market just doesnt know north from south at the moment. I am off to bed which is usually the best remedy.

Nite all

Razor
  • #426
  • May 22, 2010 11:31am May 22, 2010 11:31am
Hey Razor, just read your first post - I'm pretty much on the same road as you although a little way behind. I'm probably about where you were in August last year - suffering a string of losses after some wins and wondering what went wrong lol but sticking to the guns in the knowledge that consistency in taking entries will provide the goods eventually.

The purpose of my post is selfish - to give myself encouragement - and to understand how you've grown in the past year. And also perhaps to bring my targets and aspirations down.

Where do you feel you are on the road to success? and
What percentage of your trades do you close out for a win (however small)?


Cheers,

Matt
  • #427
  • May 22, 2010 8:55pm May 22, 2010 8:55pm
Quoting MattW

Where do you feel you are on the road to success? and
What percentage of your trades do you close out for a win (however small)?


Cheers,

Matt
Trading is meant to be selfish, at the end of the day you are banking on making money while someone else is loosing theirs but I bet you wouldnt loose any sleep over it even if it was your best mate against you.

My trading has improved on the basis that I am now more at peace with executing trades based on what I see. Last year I was confident, took some losses and moved on which added to affirming my understanding of all the testing I had done. At the moment it is difficult to tell the % of winners and loosers without going back through the account and seeing the numbers but I would place a bet that it is less than 50% which is the way it has always been. The other parts that have strengthened in the last year have been my mentality to account growth and on the same plane what it needed and my tolerance to letting trades run for bigger profits.

That is about the biggest I have changed but with every day and week that goes by I learn a bit more. There is in my knowledge no shortcuts. You will get there when you are ready and you will know it. I have enjoyed more paradigm shifts over the course of the last 2 years and have benefitted well from the time I have taken. I wish you all the best and feel free to add anything anytime you wish.

Take care

Razor
  • #428
  • May 22, 2010 9:05pm May 22, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting MattW

What percentage of your trades do you close out for a win (however small)?


Cheers,

Matt
I will make 1 change to what I wrote based on this question. I do close out winning trades quite a bit more often but only based on the premise that a BE trade is considered a winner so if that was the case including anything small then I would guess my win % would be much higher. However I dont count winning and loosing trades per se, that to me is concentrating on the wrong factors of trading successfully. At the end of the day I judge my success based on the growth of my account. If at the end of the year after 100's of trades my account grows by more than the rate I would get at my local bank then I deem it a success. At the moment I am up around 24% for the year which is fantastics however I know that there are swings and roundabouts in trading so I just do my best to ensure that my current balance grows, however slowly it may be.

That is what I believe needs to be the focus. High win rates account for little without knowing the mechanism behind it. Traders could have very poor risk reward situations where drawdown is huge but -ve balance is not yet realised (floating losses). On the score board they may have a high win rate however the losses, which are usually large, overtake the profits.

I guess the figure below would help illustrate.

Win % 90
Loss % 10

Win = 25 pips
Loss = 500 pips

So over the course of 100 trades the trader expects 10 SL's to be hit which account for 5000 pips total while the winner takes home 2250 pips with the profits. Most follow the method because the win % is so high ignoring the losses as an irrelevant factor. That is why I care little for win/loss %'s

Razor
  • #429
  • May 22, 2010 9:26pm May 22, 2010 9:26pm
Quote
..If at the end of the year after 100's of trades my account grows by more than the rate I would get at my local bank then I deem it a success..
Hello Razor,
minor question:
what rate does your local bank give u?
Good posts. Thanks for sharing.

Quoting Razor_trader
...have an account with GFT as they have the best charting package I know of....
aside from what u've mentioned in this post, are there any other reasons why u think GFT has the best charting package?
Thanks

Quoting Razor_trader
I must say going to sleep with an active trade can be the best thing to avoid emotions. While I was quite certain that the BEOB that I traded yesterday...
Quoting Razor_trader
..Second was after this nice reversal twin pin bar which had what I want...
i've looked at the two charts..
Do u still remember how near the stops were from the highs?
BEOB stop was near/right at the high, while pin's stop was below the high.
interesting, non-conventional approach.
  • #430
  • May 23, 2010 7:23am May 23, 2010 7:23am
Quoting supremeChaos
Hello Razor,
minor question:
what rate does your local bank give u?
Good posts. Thanks for sharing.


aside from what u've mentioned in this post, are there any other reasons why u think GFT has the best charting package?
Thanks



i've looked at the two charts..
Do u still remember how near the stops were from the highs?
BEOB stop was near/right at the high, while pin's stop was below the high.
interesting, non-conventional approach.
Hi Supreme,

I will answer you as best I can

1) Bank interest for me varies from around 4% to 8%. I have an account that attracts about 4% standard and then pays an extra 3% provided I make regular deposits. A fixed term deposit account will attract almost 8% with interest payments made or rolled over annually, this is based on 36 months minimum.

2) I have used Oanda, GFT, MT4 and ACM platforms in the past but I love GFT for there simplicity to set up workstations that can have pretty much whatever I need. There tools for charting are abundant, there indicator packages (for those who use them) are sufficient, they offer mobile platforms for Blackberry phones that have charting facilities and order executions and because I have used it for 5 years it is quite difficult for me to move away. I tried MT4 which was also quite good but just not my cup of tea. I guess it is just a matter of knowing where everything is and being able to do what I need with ease.

The trades that were successful missed the SL's by something like 7-10 pips. The trades were based on PA bars and in the end they worked out really well. The last trade which was like a switch back pin didnt play out well in the end. I was looking for a pullback but I liked the initial feel of that pin movement. Subsequently we broke through the low albeit slightly before a 3 pin showed strong rejection. I was around at the time however that is how it goes. Typically as a rule of thumb a 4th attempt usually breaks through and to minimise my emotional exposure I decided to leave it be. I had a great week in the end, it would have been nice to see it break through, retest the S turned R and get more action short but thats how things go.

It may seem confusing considering most of my time here was devoted to Inside Bars which I still do play, however I take the trades from other PA when they look like they have a good chance of working out. Pin Bars and Outside bars can be stronger indications IMO of reversals especially when they are out there. I make an effort to take my Breakeven measures when possible and will have alarms set in the event that I am not around but sometimes you cant do anything about it. That would naturally change in the future as I take trading in a more income related role, at the moment it is a project that I take on when I have some time to myself. It works out quite well for me because London and New York sessions are late afternoon through the evening for me so I am able to work for myself through-out the day and then come home and trade if time permits. That is the main reason why I dont trade full time, it is really not needed. I am in the stages of progression and capital building. I made some good money from selling off a portion of my business some months back. If I ever get to the 100k stage which would naturally take some years then I would be happy to work part time and trade part time with the outlook to make money working to cover expense so that I can still build on the capital but as they say 'If it aint broke dont fix it' which for me at the moment there is complete harmony in what I do.

Take care

Razor
  • #431
  • May 23, 2010 10:23am May 23, 2010 10:23am
Quoting Razor_trader
...At the moment it is difficult to tell the % of winners and loosers without going back through the account and seeing the numbers but I would place a bet that it is less than 50% which is the way it has always been. ...
Thanks for the quality reply. It's the above quote that I needed to hear and is the bit that's been holding me back I think.

I've heard so many times that we should find a method/system/magic bean that provides 60% winners and a minimum 2:1 return. Bullshit. I long since stopped system hopping and moved onto PA but for nigh on a year I've been testing, playing with ideas, looking for a 'better' edge etc. all in vain to achieve that hazy goal and I cant help feeling it's a myth.

What I should instead do is accept that price is unpredictable at best, and downright random at worst and therefore it's a given that you'll have more losers than winners despite having the 'best' entry trigger in the world and that instead one should focus on managing the trades you do get in to for the most you can get out of it.
  • #432
  • May 23, 2010 4:05pm May 23, 2010 4:05pm
Quoting supremeChaos

aside from what u've mentioned in this post, are there any other reasons why u think GFT has the best charting package?
Thanks

I heard a little whisper that GFT will be offerig MT very soon
  • #433
  • May 23, 2010 7:00pm May 23, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting MattW
Thanks for the quality reply. It's the above quote that I needed to hear and is the bit that's been holding me back I think.

I've heard so many times that we should find a method/system/magic bean that provides 60% winners and a minimum 2:1 return. Bullshit. I long since stopped system hopping and moved onto PA but for nigh on a year I've been testing, playing with ideas, looking for a 'better' edge etc. all in vain to achieve that hazy goal and I cant help feeling it's a myth.

What I should instead do is accept that price is unpredictable at...
Everyone needs to make there own mind up about what is valid in trading and what isn't. For me a shift came after months of testing and reading that there is no need for the numbers expressed other than your account. If over years of testing with which ever methodology you want you cannot get positive growth out of the numbers then it is hopeless regardless of whether it is a 60% winner with 1:2 R/R. Those last numbers dont help you sleep at night trust me. If you have a system that you have either gained or made but not backtested until you are comfortable with the growth numbers then it makes no difference if it is a 90% winner with 1:1 or a 40% winning with 1:3 during drawdowns. You emotional parameters will almost always get the better of you and you will either scrap it and move on or be naive and continue.

Backtesting something is imperative for understanding its mechanics and provided the test period is long enough, it will also give you feedback as to how it has handled periods of long trends, large corrections etc. PA bars are capable provided you have an awareness of what is happening in the current market which is one of the more difficult aspects of backtesting. By this I mean it is hard to remember what the market was 15 years ago, so during testing you just have to set some extra rules to help clarify which I will not go into more detail about just know that I used higher TFs in my testing for some bias and I still use that today.

SO be clear, % and all the other "hard numbered mathmatical" aspects dont mean as much to me as the actual growth. The only solice that give me is that I know from past testing there will be lean times, just as I know there will be opportunities for extreme growth and I will tell you why I find the long tail aspect of trading interesting and exciting in this current market.

You can always look back on history and see where the market has come from. You can quite safely assume that markets tend to reach highs and surpass them later in time. Retracements (large like we are seeing now) offer you the opportunities when the current market is right to be on board some really good winners long and as the current market is you can do so on the short side. That is the challenge that I find to be truly exciting.

Take care

Razor
  • #434
  • Jun 22, 2010 5:18am Jun 22, 2010 5:18am
caught a nice move south on Eur/Usd. big beob on daily and got in with a small pullback to Fridays low. SL above the high of Friday
  • #435
  • Jun 29, 2010 7:29am Jun 29, 2010 7:29am
Quoting Razor_trader
caught a nice move south on Eur/Usd. big beob on daily and got in with a small pullback to Fridays low. SL above the high of Friday
Still short having weather a small pullback and now up around 150 pips. 1/2 taken just now so lets see if this thing will continue its trek downwards

Razor
  • #436
  • Aug 5, 2010 2:30am Aug 5, 2010 2:30am
After many problems with a laptop that was used around the same time as the first space shuttle launch I decided to 'invest' in a new computer that should hopefully run without crashing and provide enough power to run basic software.

Positions are all new

GBP/JPY Short - 137.04 SL is at BE - Looks exhausted and we are in a bullish channel on the weekly. We are just about to the top but previously weekly candles was exhausted and this weeks travel up some but looks to be heading down

EUR/USD Short -1.3180 - Pin on the 4 hourly that I missed but entered on a clean break below 1.3200 which I got- SL will be moved to BE once I head out this afternoon as protection. Weekly has been bullish since sub 1.2000 however there is good downside and upside potential, I just see the downside being a little more profitable and whether we see some moves back to sub 1.3000 we will have to wait and see

USD/JPY Long - 86.34 - Took long off the break of yesterdays close/todays open after a small move down the bar. In loss at the moment with SL set for 30 pips.

RT
  • #437
  • Aug 5, 2010 5:00am Aug 5, 2010 5:00am
Quoting Razor_trader
After many problems with a laptop that was used around the same time as the first space shuttle launch I decided to 'invest' in a new computer that should hopefully run without crashing and provide enough power to run basic software.

Positions are all new

GBP/JPY Short - 137.04 SL is at BE - Looks exhausted and we are in a bullish channel on the weekly. We are just about to the top but previously weekly candles was exhausted and this weeks travel up some but looks to be heading down

EUR/USD Short -1.3180 - Pin on the 4 hourly that I missed...
EUR/USD stopped out at BE, held at the bullish trendline and looks to be heading northward. Will now re-evaluate this pair to see what it looks to be doing

Closed the USD/JPY for a small 20 pip loss. It hasnt been profitable and I just dont want to hold it

GBP/JPY is at BE and still in play, we will see what happens with this.

Looking forward to tomorrow NFP YAYAYYAYAYAYAY, might get some volitile action.

RT
  • #438
  • Aug 5, 2010 6:42am Aug 5, 2010 6:42am
Taking a second bite at the cherry. Held up by upside conjestion and strong bullish candle followed by weaker bearish. I have taken the break of the lows with a SL of around 25 pips. There is more than 25 pips to the trendline and will be looking to see if we break below and stay below for some downside rallying. Tomorrow is NFP so I am not getting too far ahead of myself as we all know the whipsaw effect plus there is more than likely limiting volume at the moment with most sidelined until after the results.

If I get a chance to trade NFP tomoz I may but chances are ill be playing golf with a beer in my hand, thats what I call a handicap.

RT
  • #439
  • Aug 5, 2010 9:02am Aug 5, 2010 9:02am
EUR trade failed again and took another small loss. Added another short to the GBP/JPY off hourly inside bar. Also there was a confirming 4 hourly IB that also broke. Price is now resting on the trendline and both positions are cover with SL at BE. Alarms set and time for bed.

RT
  • #440
  • Aug 5, 2010 6:33pm Aug 5, 2010 6:33pm
GBP/JPY has so far broken the trendline support and closed below it so it will be interesting to see how it goes today.

Stops are all at BE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY Short trendline break.jpg Size: 69 KB
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