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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited Jan 9, 2006 12:07am Dec 31, 2005 1:05pm | Edited Jan 9, 2006 12:07am
  •  ElectricSavant
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
TradeVestor's.

PLEASE PRINT THIS OUT (CLICK THE #1 IN THE UPPER RIGHT CORNER OF THIS POST BEFORE PRINTING) AS IT WILL BE EASIER FOR YOU TO READ AND TAKE NOTES... IF YOU FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH IT, THEN TAPE IT ON YOUR WALL.

This is the simple system with just one pair, AUD/JPY because it pays the most interest. This system will not trade, but will carry and take advantage of IRA. No silly... not a retirement account...Interest Rate Arbitrage.

http://www.electricsavant.com/INTERESTCOW.xls






Open up your USD Mini account at FXCM and request their "interest free program". Open up a sub-account also. Use 50:1 leverage. This will be your SHORT AUD/JPY account.


When opening your USD FXCM Mini account, you can do it all online. Fax your your id's to their fax number and fill out "interest free" form attached below. NEVER FUND A BROKERAGE ACCOUNT UNTIL YOU GET A CONFIRMING EMAIL WITH INSTRUCTIONS AND WRITE YOUR ACCOUNT NUMBER OR THE WORD, "NEW" OR TEMPORY ACCOUNT# ON YOUR CHECK. Wait for your email from them, advising you that your account is open and ready for funding. After you get your email telling you to fund, call them and check verbally that your account is interest free and has been processed correctly. You can then use the online electronic check system to fund your account with.


then....


Open up a USD Account with Oanda. Open up a sub account also. No need to specify mini or lot...as Oanda only has one account with unit size trade increments. Use 50:1 Leverage (there is a tutorial in Cash & Carry EXOTIC on how to set leverage in Oanda, along with pictures). This will be your LONG AUD/JPY account.

When opening your USD Oanda account, you can do it all online. Fax your your id's to their fax number. Wait for your email from them, advising you that your account is open and ready for funding. NEVER FUND A BROKERAGE ACCOUNT UNTIL YOU GET A CONFIRMING EMAIL WITH INSTRUCTIONS AND WRITE YOUR ACCOUNT NUMBER ON YOUR CHECK. After you get your email telling you to fund, you will need to mail a check and wait. Do not use PayPal as they charge 3% in and 3% out. You must accept that if you fund with Paypal at Oanda. Oanda will only let you take it out to Paypal, this is a security protocoll that they will not make exceptions to. I have often wondered what would happen if you no longer had a PayPal account. If you use Wires your bank has fees for that. Also you must lay out the money immediatley and wait for the wire to be sent and received and processed. When you mail a check it will not be removed from your account until they cash it. You must live in the USA to fund with a personal check and I find it just as safe. Now getting money back, in large amounts it may be best to use a wire as you do not make interest while its in transit....do the math and pencil it out, then decide when it is prudent to use wires. TradeVestor's we are money flow experts Ok? We are detail oriented and observant.




Now. This is the system and what you do:

Go Short 1 Mini (10,000 UNITS) AUD/JPY for every 147 bucks you have on deposit, in FXCM at early AM (mst) hours. (Do this side of the hedge first, as this assures you of an accurate time lag for your fill confirmation as FXCM is not like Oanda and they can lag you in confirmations and play games that Oanda does not)

Then go Long in Oanda at the precise same time in AUD/JPY with 1 Mini (10,000 UNITS) for every 147 bucks you have on deposit.


You can bring up both platforms and park your trade ticket, so when your ready to go, it's just a "click" and a "click" and your "in"...DO NOT SPECULATE WITH YOUR HEDGE, JUST ENTER ASAP WITH BOTH TICKETS OK? FXCM FIRST, THEN OANDA...CLICK...CLICK...DO NOT EVEN LOOK AT THE PRICE....I REPEAT DO NOT EVEN LOOK AT THE PRICE.

If you get near a margin call on either of your platforms, then reset your hedge by exiting both sides. You will need to rebalance the money from one dealer/marketmaker to the other then you can re-enter at one mini per 147 bucks. You will realize compounding at this point as Oanda has fortified your balance along the way with that marvelous interest earned...yes it's daily and direct to your balance not a price quote at rollover. Sure you will realize the spread each time you reset and lose some time in waiting to receive your checks and make the corresponding deposit on the other side (online checks at FXCM, but Oanda mails them. Oanda charges 15 bucks if you get more than one check a month. larger traders can just use wires, when it becomes a breakeven issue in regards to the fee's)...but in a year you will be happy with your net yield....DO NOT BE AFRAID TO RESET TO REALIZE A BALANCE OF THE HEDGE AND THE BONUS OF COMPOUNDING YOUR EARNINGS FROM DAILY INTEREST INJECTIONS. (I will go over "how to think" in regards to doing a reset for the sole purpose of acceleration of compounded capital, and not out of necessity because you are near a margin call)

You can add money anytime to your "perfect" hedge as long as you "add to" on both sides, at the same time in equal amounts of minis. Try to enter in the early AM (mst) time and not on NFP or Greenspan day.

I suggest that you do not wait for a margin call to determine when you exit and reset, as you remove control from the "WHEN" and the "HOW MUCH" and at what "QUOTE" the computer gets you out at. Just exit when you get near and take a break, while waiting for the transfers Ok? TRADING IS NOT ABOUT HOW MUCH YOU TRADE, BUT HOW SMART YOU TRADE.






I have got the opening of FXCM and the funding in process and will be able to trade it LIVE WITH REAL MONEY, for all of you to see, in around two weeks, when my funding of $2,500.00 in each dealer/marketmakers account is complete.

Do you understand that you will make interest in Oanda at around 250% a year and not pay interest in FXCM because you have the "interest free" account and you will only pay a one-time fee of one buck per Mini with NO COST OF CARRY? (AT A SAVINGS OF 287% PER YEAR MINUS ONE BUCK PER MINI)

Private Forum members and TradeVestor's. I would like to thank you for subscribing. And now I will open this discussion thread up to your posts.

Questions and Comments....Speak up... that is why I am here and at at your ser vice....This is not a public forum...so show your colors and real honest concerns without worrying that the public will comment. This is about trading and YOU making money. Your independence in thought and your observation skills is on trial here....and I will try and help with what I know without Bullshit.

Michael B.

P.S. As you ask your questions I may alter them and edit them for presentation. They may not resemble your original layout, but I will answer your question (s). Just go along with this, you will see that the reasons that I need control is purely for presentation and to cut through what I perceive to be bad presentation. I do not think you are here just to have a Forex Factory #2. THIS IS NOT ENTERTAINMENT. THIS IS THE BUSINESS OF TRADING. YOU WILL NOTICE THAT I SPEAK MORE CLEARLY HERE COMPARED TO THE PUBLIC FORUMS, AS I DO NOT NEED TO GET YOUR ATTENTION OR SPUR YOUR CURIOSITY. I KNOW WHY YOU ARE HERE AND I KNOW YOU ARE SERIOUS, AS YOU HAVE PAID THE PRICE.

P.P.S. Everything is in "Plain Speak" here, so you advanced traders from Banks, HF's and the "institution", please dumb it down...
Attached File
File Type: zip Interest_Free_Commission_Acknowledgement-_11102005_fxcm.zip   29 KB | 1,466 downloads
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Jan 2, 2006 11:41pm Jan 2, 2006 11:41pm
  •  DaveW
  • | Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Member | 151 Posts
Dear Mike.

Congratulations on this step forward to your quest of finding the perfect trading method.

I was an engineer during my working life (am retired now but working hard at Forex) and 99% perfect was not good enough, people's lives depended on everything being 100%. I am seeking the same with Forex and your "Perfect Hedge seems to be as close to 100% as is possible.

My first question would be regarding the FXCM margin policy. Their site states that as soon as the Equity in the account falls below the margin requirement of 1% the trades will be closed. Therefore if you enter 1 mini with 50:1 the margin requirement would be $146 (2 x $73) and as you have only $147 equity for each mini entered the trade would be closed as soon as the trade goes 1 pip against you.

I may be mis-reading this but would be grateful if you could comment on the above. Oanda would not be a problem as they effectively allow you to go to 100:1 before the margin call.

Ani\other question, with your suggested allocation of 1 mini per every $147 in the account, how many pips against you can the price go before the margin call?

Once again, thanks for your hard work.

Regards

Dave Waddington

DaveW

PS. Is anyone here residing in the Tokyo, Japan area
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Edited at 12:22am Jan 3, 2006 12:14am | Edited at 12:22am
  •  ElectricSavant
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
DaveW

FXCM would be set at 200:1 even though we are using 50:1.

Lets watch and see the live trading to discover how many pips it will be...
I am not afraid of resets..

This is why you are here, let me spend the money and demonstrate ok?

I do not believe anyone until I count the PIPS myself...I have never had a margin call or pushed an account this far and I must admit I am new to FXCM.

I will not let the account reach a margin call as I would lose control of what price I would get.

Please excuse my serious tone...this is dead serious for me and I hope that this method works for you...If not I have others...You are here to make money...and I want to deliver. But it's you that does the trading and that pulls the trigger. Fair enough? I am here to demonstrate the HOW!

Michael B.
 
 
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Jan 4, 2006 12:35pm Jan 4, 2006 12:35pm
  •  DaveW
  • | Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Member | 151 Posts
Michael

I have been doing some basic calculations regarding your instructions in the first post of this thread.

Assuming you have $2,500 in your account and you open 17 minis (2,500/147). This would cost $1,258 (at 100:1 once you are in) leaving you a usable balance in your account of $1,242. each pip would be then worth $14.70 allowing you 85 pips against you before a margin call. The AUD/JPY moved 200 pips this week and today alone moved 120 pips. I therefore think that maybe only having a buffer of 85 pips is not sufficient. As a margin call would cost in the region of $235 ($14.70 x 16) you do not really want to have to deal with many of those as it will take you 2-3 weeks to recover from every one.

I may have the wrong end of the stick here and missed something so would appreciate it if you could clarify a little. I would like this to work as much as you do but I think we have to cover all the bases before we dive in headfirst. I am in the process of setting up my FXCM account so will be following you trading live as soon as we sort out the nitty gritty details.

Dave W
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Jan 5, 2006 10:24am Jan 5, 2006 10:24am
  •  ElectricSavant
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
DaveW,

I have been struggling with this. So let's start with a small amount in the beginning as we can always add more later. So instead of the suggested 50:1 max...lets cut it down to around 10:1 (4 minis). This will yield a nice 30% per year with less waste.

Michael B.


Quoting DaveW
Disliked
Michael

I have been doing some basic calculations regarding your instructions in the first post of this thread.

Assuming you have $2,500 in your account and you open 17 minis (2,500/147). This would cost $1,258 (at 100:1 once you are in) leaving you a usable balance in your account of $1,242. each pip would be then worth $14.70 allowing you 85 pips against you before a margin call. The AUD/JPY moved 200 pips this week and today alone moved 120 pips. I therefore think that maybe only having a buffer of 85 pips is not sufficient. As a margin call would cost in the region of $235 ($14.70 x 16) you do not really want to have to deal with many of those as it will take you 2-3 weeks to recover from every one.

I may have the wrong end of the stick here and missed something so would appreciate it if you could clarify a little. I would like this to work as much as you do but I think we have to cover all the bases before we dive in headfirst. I am in the process of setting up my FXCM account so will be following you trading live as soon as we sort out the nitty gritty details.

Dave W
Ignored
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Jan 6, 2006 11:33pm Jan 6, 2006 11:33pm
  •  DaveW
  • | Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Member | 151 Posts
Hi Michael

I remeber reading in the open forum that you were working on a spreadsheet for the Perfect Hedge. Did you already post and I missed it or is it still work in progress.

Dave W
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Edited at 12:56am Jan 7, 2006 12:46am | Edited at 12:56am
  •  ElectricSavant
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
Hello Dave W.

I will not live trade this until 01/17/06.

This is when my personal check for 2500 bucks will be released for trading at FXCM.

Oanda has the 2500 hundred and its ready to go there.

FXCM holds personal checks for 10 business days. I am not in any hurry and have not worked much on the spreadsheet. I will finish it before live trading as I/We need it.

The ideas that I have is to trade very light in the beginning and ramp up to realize a yield of 30% per year. This will trade at a lower exposure and hopefully get enough time to earn interest. Then there will be evaluations made when to reset and when not to.

I have struggled with this. The problem I am having is that traditionally the movement of price outpaces daily interest injections. My gawd, if I cannot make the "Perfect Hedge" work, then I should just give up trading! The downtime and fees the system experiences is what the spreadsheet should evaluate daily.

Ideally we should use Wires...If I am allowed to trade this, maybe someday the numbers will grow large enough to make wires cost effective.

Oanda is the bottleneck here. They charge 15 bucks for more than one withdrawal per month and do not have any online free ACH (online checks) system like FXCM has!

DaveW this really is more about transacting business than trading!


Michael B.
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Jan 7, 2006 10:57am Jan 7, 2006 10:57am
  •  cet
  • | Joined Jul 2005 | Status: Member | 18 Posts
Being incredibly new to trading, many of the things that are said matter of factly here make me scratch my head and wonder "How did they come up with that?"

Although I may not understand the executional how's, I am quite clear on the concept and offer a few thoughts from my naive perspective that, often in the past, have generate sheer brilliant revelations from trader's "in the know".

It's sort of like being dyslexic, and though I am not, my views may get you thinking in ways you may not have considered.

That said, here are my thoughts:

While AUD/JPY generates in excess of 250% per year, there are limiting factors to be considered.

First, the hedge ... 1/2 of the funds are needed to short the position in FXCM against Oanda's long.

Now, not to complicate things, but Oanda's max leverage is 50:1 and FXCM is 200:1. There is the possibility that less money may be required on the FXCM side to cover the hedge due to greater leverage, but the mathematicians will have to look at that. It may also complicate the issue in ways I have no knowledge of as well.

Further, and this is a part I don't understand, DaveW brought up the point of FXCM's 1% margin requirement. Not being a trader, I don't know where the numbers come from, but bottom line questions:

"Is there a difference on margin requirements between Oanda and FXCM?"

"Does it even matter if we intended to keep a minimum 'safety' margin on both accounts anway?"

Next, forgetting about the FXCM side and looking solely at the profit generating mechanism on the Oanda side, the next major question:

"How much of the money in the account can actually be in use at a time to remain 'safe' from a PREMATURE margin call (MC)?"

Michael mentions that a MC is not to be feared, and I understand why. Though my limited perspective tells me that we want to maximise interest earning time, as resets, whether MANUAL or due to MC, take time away from interest earning in order to shuffle funds around.

So, looking at the numbers, in a not so accurate, but general sense, we've got 250% / year on the amount of capital "in play". I'm not sure what numbers to use, but since Michael is working with $5K, I'll go with that.

First, we reduce potential working capital in 1/2 due to the hedge, so potential working capital that can earn interest out of $5K is $2,500 at Oanda.

Next, and this is the part that Michael is working on right now, how much of the $2,500 can be "in play" as working capital to earn interest?

Again, this is where the mathematicians can come in and say $X in play leaves $Y margin, which allows for Z pips. I still don't understand how to figure that, and I'd love for someone to tell me when they have time.

My newbie perspective is that we want to maximize $X while maintaing a safe Z to allow for the most interest earning time possible between resets.

Here is where I have to guess, so tell me if I'm right or wrong, but the $X in play will be earning approximate 20.83% / month (250% / 12).

Now I need to ask, what is profitable and SAFE for the Oanda side of the equation? Would the $X working capital be 1/4, 1/3, 1/2 or more of the $2,500?

DaveW mentioned a single day swing of 120 pips, and while I don't quite understand where the $14.70 / pip comes from, that's a move of $1764 (120 pips x $14.70) against, which means that in order to survive such a move you would have had to have less than $736 as your $X working captial which is just under 30% of the $2500.

I don't know how common 100+ pip moves against are, but a thought comes to mind, hearkening back to Michael's Balanced Cash & Carry that employs additional currency pair(s) anti-correlated in movement to the "KEY" currency pair (AUD/JPY) to offset a large pip swing against the KEY position.

I've looked at Michael's CASHCOW spreadsheet, and while I'm not sure which pairs generally move together, and which are most often anti-correlated, the thought crosses my mind that experienced traders may be able to pick one or more Interest Producing currency pairs that contribute positively to the CARRY (granted not as much as AUD/JPY) and have enough impact on the movement against the KEY currency pair to ensure there are no 100+ pip LOSS days.

In essence, we would sacrifice a small amount of the interest by breaking the $X working capital into $X(a) [funds dedicated to AUD/JPY @ 250% / year] and $X(b...?) [funds dedicated to currency pair(s) ANTICORRELATED to AUD/JPY earning less interest but providing more interest-earning-time by reducing pip swings].

Now I've no idea if this throws a monkey wrench into the entire plan or not, however, if we can have more than 30% of the funds in Oanda earning interest SAFELY, so much the better.

Please think on this a bit and let me know if I'm just complicating things or if there is some hint of wisdom in my thoughts.

Having a single currency pair sounds like the easiest method, and the last thing I want to do is complicate matters, however, looking at DaveW's post, I can't help but think that there must be a way to reduce a wild pip-swing to maximise interest earning time and be able to utilize more than 30% of the funds in the Oanda account as $X working capital.

I sincerely look forward to your response, and I'll bet Michael will probably come up with something that just blows us all away!

Thanks for listening ...

Yours,

Cet.
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Edited at 1:38pm Jan 7, 2006 12:15pm | Edited at 1:38pm
  •  ElectricSavant
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
I understand all of you are here to make money.

I am very conservative and will start slow. It's more important for the thought processes to take place step-by-step, live..

My thought processes may be of a more conservative flavor and many of you can handle the NOW earlier.

I simply am waiting for funding and will trade this live with a four mini's to get started and start understanding PiP movements. Interest rates, Margins and actual price are dynamically changing PiP by PiP. The only responsible thing to do here is to deal with the NOW, when I get funded and illustrate the struggles.

I have other systems to present, and truthfully, I did not expect FXCM to allow this....this long. But we will continue....and stay tuned for more of the "Perfect Hedge"....

Let's continue the discussion as I already have a few ideas....But lets illustrate this slow and be slow to change, as this Perfect Hedge is far too good to be true to make dramatic changes in it...The challenge becomes in the How and When to transfer money rather than trading.

Michael B.

It's been brought to my attention that when funding with FXCM by credit card, you will recieve withdrawals on your Credit Card with a 25 buck fee from FXCM.
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Edited Jan 8, 2006 6:35pm Jan 7, 2006 4:20pm | Edited Jan 8, 2006 6:35pm
  •  johngas
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 8 Posts
Hello everyone !


I did place money into both fxcm, and oanda, and started hedging thursday audjpy. accidently forgot to set margin on oanda - so got immediate margin call !! anyway fixed that problem and renentered. Using only 1mini to start on both sides. interest = about $1 per day per mini. will ramp up slowly making sure no probs with spread between both platforms. since thursday fxcm audjpy short = + $38 , oanda audjpy long = - $56. will ramp up to full lot if everything looks good in a few days.
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Edited Jun 27, 2011 6:04pm Jan 8, 2006 5:39pm | Edited Jun 27, 2011 6:04pm
  •  ElectricSavant
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
Hello Chris,

I just learned of this Interest Free Program shortly before the opening of the PF. I scrambled quickly and started the account opening process at FXCM (I am an Oanda client). I thought, "what a wonderful program to present here to paying subscribers". It will pay for your membership here in the PF, while you have access to the other contributers here. You are in this to make money right! Well... Let's do it!

I wanted to present material to KEEP subscribers here month after month. I will have more material to present in the future, not only on The "Perfect" Hedge and Cash & Carry (Exotic) but I have other material that I will release slowly. Plan on a diversified portfolio in Forex. There are still a few traders in Cash & Carry (Standard) but they know how to trade it without me....There is a success story of one fellow in Canada who is also a subscriber here, who was introduced to Hedging with Cash & Carry (Standard) and is Hedging with it to this day!. He wants other systems and baskets and I am thrilled!

I know of a firm in Switzerland named Marketiva, but if you live in the USA they are not available to you. I also got a private email from one of the folks at their company frowning on this sort of activity that I am about to trade. Marketiva would be ideal for this strategy because they too have "one unit incremental trade tickets", like Oanda. The USA thing and the interest Arbitrage objections that they have has closed that door to me. I honestly do not know how they would know what you are doing if you did not tell them. HeHe...Your account would show one entry of a short AUD/JPY and no trading....every once in a while you would get flat and re-enter, which would give them some spread! but they claim to lose a lot of money on this deal, the way I want to trade it. It just goes to show you that you must keep your retail Spot Forex dealer/marketmaker happy or he will not do business with you. These guys are in business to make money off the sweat of traders backs! Play the game Chris....we will make this work. I am sure there are other dealers/marketmakers out there with this program. I just got to find them and perhaps some subscribers here will contribute.

I hope this helps Chris. I will be trading this live in two weeks, with real dollars for you to follow along, meanwhile I am fielding questions.

Michael Bolduc
{Personal Info Removed}

P.S. By the way the title, "Interest Cow" pertains to the spreadsheet ranks over at Oanda, that I keep updated for hundreds of traders that view my Website periodically. www.ElectricSavant.com
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Edited Jan 9, 2006 12:02am Jan 8, 2006 5:40pm | Edited Jan 9, 2006 12:02am
  •  ElectricSavant
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
Leave some money on the table for the rest of us JG...

Hello everyone !


I did place money into both fxcm, and oanda, and started hedging thursday audjpy. accidently forgot to set margin on oanda - so got immediate margin call !! anyway fixed that problem and renentered. Using only 1mini to start on both sides. interest = about $1 per day per mini. will ramp up slowly making sure no probs with spread between both platforms. since thursday fxcm audjpy short = + $38 , oanda audjpy long = - $56. will ramp up to full lot if everything looks good in a few days.
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Edited Jan 9, 2006 12:09am Jan 8, 2006 6:13pm | Edited Jan 9, 2006 12:09am
  •  ElectricSavant
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
I have been receiving some phone calls from excited TradeVestor's claiming that this is it! This is the Hold Grail....lol

"Holy Grail of a Technicality" HGOAT

This reminds me when I used to take advantage of float within overdraft lines of credit 25 years ago, before the banks figured out how to charge interest from the first day in between billing cycles. Once upon a time they treated cash advances like credit card purchases with the grace period.

Anyways...in the traditional Cash & Carry Systems DrawDown is the enemy. In this particular Cash & Carry system, this is not the case, but rather Directional Volatility is the enemy in Cash & Carry (The "Perfect" Hedge).

So how do we tame directional volatility... becomes the question, right? We need to slow down the movement of UPL to not trigger a reset. A reset should be triggered by us voluntarily to realize compounding, we should never be forced to reset because we are near a margin call right? Compounding can be a good thing when we have gone a long time collecting interest. The reset should realize the profit on one side for distrbution to the other side when it will increase the rate of interest to exceed the cost of the reset, right?

So again, we need to tame directional volatility. Less exposure is one way....Now there is another suggestion that we can examine, but it may not be the best way...let me explain:

Lets say we want to put on a two pair hedge to slow movement....but do we really slow the movement? Lets examine this and compare it to just holding the AUD/JPY:

OANDA
AUD/JPY LONG
CHF/JPY SHORT(interest negative at the rate of 44.49%/year)

FXCM
AUD/JPY SHORT
CHF/JPY LONG (interest pos, but no cigar at FXCM with our int-free account)

So doesn't this leave us with AUD/CHF as the one pair instead of AUD/JPY?

So now the question becomes which one is less volatile? Lets look here:

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

You will discover a 283 PIP advantage, for a cost of 44.49% loss of interest per year.

1000 day range
AUD/JPY = 91.35-72.46=18.18
AUD/CHF 0.9945-0.83840=0.1605

So now the decision....if this 44.49% dilution of interest makes up for the "1000 day, 283 pip volatility improvement", then it would be easy? On the surface of this, I say no, because we can achieve this through less exposure of the AUD/JPY...what say you?

Michael B.
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Jan 9, 2006 12:45am Jan 9, 2006 12:45am
  •  DaveW
  • | Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Member | 151 Posts
Michael.

At first glance I would say that attempting to counteract the volatility problem by using the CHF/JPY would be counterproductive. As you said the same could be accomplished by less exposure.

My solution would be as follows. Assuming that you allow a max possible movement of 250 pips before being obliged to reset/suffer margin call, I have been considering the advantage of splitting your trades into 3 separate blocks. Initially place one block on at the prevailing Market price. Once the market has moved either way, say, 100 pips enter with the second block and when the market moves another 100 pips in the same direction ( or retraces 200 pips) enter with the third block. This would require a little patience to accomplish, but after all this is a long term plan. It would mean that you would have a 700 pip range and when one of the three block is reset you would only suffer a third of the spread costs. On the face of it it seems feasible so what are your thoughts.

An elementary question regarding the difference between the Oanda and FXCM platforms. How do you ensure that you have the same exposure in both accounts. FXCM is not a problem as you enter either Mini/Full lots. How do you manage the entry with Oanda as they use units. I assume that you have to use the required # of units so that 1 pip equals the prevailing price of the AUD/JPY or do I have this wrong?

I have found another couple of brokers that offer zero-interest options. The first is FXTrader.net (no-one seems to like the fact that they have a mailing address in Switzerland and that is the only contact), the other being CMBForex who seem to be an IB for Refco(considering the problems Refco have had it might not be the best idea, however, having said that, Refco are still offering their FX services).

Anyway, would appreciate your thoughts regarding any solution to the Volatility problem, as well as anyone else who is reading this thread.

Dave W
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Edited at 12:57am Jan 9, 2006 12:48am | Edited at 12:57am
  •  ElectricSavant
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
DaveW


Brilliant!

1 mini=10,000 units...1 lot = 100,000 units


4 mini's four stages...How bout' the one year range broken up into four equal parts? if you want to add money to this savings account...then save up increments of one mini for each side....294 bucks for each injection...park the money in the subaccount for introduction to the phase in...

All good things can come to those that can wait...
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Edited at 1:07am Jan 9, 2006 1:00am | Edited at 1:07am
  •  keris2112
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 13 Posts
Keris,

I replied...but your name is up there....the PF screws up quoting...


FXCM allows subaccounts in the same name and it can take up to 24 hrs to complete the transfers as long as they are both interest free ...at Oanda subaccount transfer are as fast as two clicks...as far as relatives transferring amongst themselves that is not allowed as its considered a third party deposit going in...

Michael B.






Quoting ElectricSavant
Disliked
Oanda is the bottleneck here. They charge 15 bucks for more than one withdrawal per month and do not have any online free ACH (online checks) system like FXCM has!

Michael B.
Ignored
If we could swind money back and forth between accounts within hours, we'd never have to worry about MCs. Since we can't, the biggest problem (even bigger than the volitilty issue) is the amount of time it takes to move money between accounts. Here are 2 suggestions to help reduce those problems:

  1. Split you money into 3 positions: Account 1, Account 2, Cash. Place 1/3 (This may need to be increased or decreased once we see the system in action) in each. When one account is moving in the direction of an MC, it's quicker to get Cash into the account than to request money from one account, wait for it, and then deposit into the other account.
  2. Since Oanda is the "slow poke" here, open 2 accounts at FXCM. Put one account in your name and one in your spouse's/parent's/sibling's/whoever's name. This way, no matter which account is going negative, you can get your cash out of one account and into the other account quicker. I'm not saying you can transfer between the accounts. I just mean that since FXCM offers things like online checks and maybe other quick methods that Oanda doesn't offer, it would be quicker going from 2 FXCM accounts than between FXCM and Oanda.

 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Jan 9, 2006 1:17am Jan 9, 2006 1:17am
  •  keris2112
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 13 Posts
Quoting DaveW
Disliked
My solution would be as follows. Assuming that you allow a max possible movement of 250 pips before being obliged to reset/suffer margin call, I have been considering the advantage of splitting your trades into 3 separate blocks. Initially place one block on at the prevailing Market price. Once the market has moved either way, say, 100 pips enter with the second block and when the market moves another 100 pips in the same direction ( or retraces 200 pips) enter with the third block. This would require a little patience to accomplish, but after all this is a long term plan. It would mean that you would have a 700 pip range and when one of the three block is reset you would only suffer a third of the spread costs. On the face of it it seems feasible so what are your thoughts.
Ignored
Quoting ElectricSavant
Disliked
4 mini's four stages...How bout' the one year range broken up into four equal parts? if you want to add money to this savings account...then save up increments of one mini for each side....294 bucks for each injection...park the money in the subaccount for introduction to the phase in...
Ignored
Dave,
That's a really amazing idea.

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that the larger the block size, the higher the margin level we'd be able to use once we were fully in. So, if you choose a block size of 200, or as ES said, splitting the one year range, it may take 6 months to be fully into the market, but at that point, even at 50:1 it would probably be pretty difficult to get an MC. We sacrifice some shortterm gains for the ability to run this highly leveraged in the longterm.
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Jan 9, 2006 1:19am Jan 9, 2006 1:19am
  •  ElectricSavant
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
We could measure the distance to margin call too....instead of 1Y range...getting a reset however would be a real bummer, as we would need to start over.

Michael B.
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Jan 9, 2006 1:25am Jan 9, 2006 1:25am
  •  keris2112
  • | Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Member | 13 Posts
Quoting keris2112
Disliked
FXCM allows subaccounts in the same name and it can take up to 24 hrs to complete the transfers as long as they are both interest free ...at Oanda subaccount transfer are as fast as two clicks...as far as relatives transferring amongst themselves that is not allowed as its considered a third party deposit going in...

Michael B.
Ignored
Micheal,
I'm not thinking of subaccounts as those would both have to be interest-free or interest paying. I'm talking about having 2 totally separate accounts. As far as FXCM is concerned, they are from 2 people in different parts of the world (even if they are related to us).

So, yes, it would be a third party transfer. Request money from one account, wait for it, deposit it into the other account. The difference is that it's quicker to withdraw money from FXCM due to online checks and quicker to deposit money with them due to "I don't remember but I thought you said something about them was quicker". Maybe it was 'cuz you can use a credit card. These are just things I've inferred from your postings, so maybe they're not correct. If they are correct, then anything that shortens the transfer time between 2 accounts is a good thing.

Keris
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Jan 9, 2006 1:32am Jan 9, 2006 1:32am
  •  ElectricSavant
  • Joined Apr 2005 | Status: Member | 578 Posts
keris,


I get your idea...the trouble is we can't earn interest at FXCM...it must be arbed between the pos and the neg...neg must be the interest free position...

short AUD/JPY at Oanda cost 287.37% per year..

Long at FXCM give us nothing, but at Oanda we get 251.88% per year.

www.electricSavant.com/INTERESTCOW.xls
 
 
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