Here is my GY trade fib... i scaled around but my is how i Manage my trades I generally fib from a h1. There was some 4h is this but this should do the trick.
The biggest issue i ever had with fibs was fear of fauliure... but after that it was potential drawdown ie not knowing when to enter/ exit the fib. How often have you seen your fib profits... go to zero or worse neg since you are just aiming for target? Dont get tied into waiting it out to the bloody end. Worst case you get out early and miss some pips... best case you save yourself from DD bank some pips and are on your merry way to re enter again.
I picked this fib up after that first big spike.. now that price action in collusion with the fact we had just had a nice fast run down had me hunting for a larger tp and lookijng to go long when the majority of the market was looking for more immediate collapse. The black fib i found showed a to the tick or close enough for me... so i was looking long...
The spike cleared the immediate resistancethe blue fibs 100 is anchored to now... that fib had me LOOKING long no trading long i saw nothing i liked about it other then general structure.
That liltte price formation though in conjustion with the to the tick as i measured said we are long look for a reason. When price failed off of that bottom area again i got in on the up break of that candle and used a mental stop area of that first red line. price went on to confirm that fib by hopping off of the 61.8 so now... I had a definate trading target. It also set my entry point up as a base for a 61.8 if I chose to take my profits early.
Price moved on and formed a nice steep tl which i bought in again my order was cushioned from profits off of the first entry and i would have been thiking to get out of that on on the break down of that entry candle..
Moving on. We were heading into EU GBP news and the beginning of a new session... on a larger fib ( for me) so i was wary.. so it pierced the tl to rocket up and fail off of near term resistance... I closed all pos at the retry and fail fencers foil candles down break. I did NOT go short, but you could have. Side note just taking the 61.8 tgt would have led you to be out earlier less thinking. NOT about pips.. about winning.
PIck the market up after a nap.. and lo and behold.. she smiled.. i had another chance to get in...doesnt always happen. price was bouncing around my 61.8 and i knew my target was 131 or more so just LONG. Saw a trip bottom set up and a nice kiss off of the 61.8 and got right back in again after the candle up break.. Friday trading.. tl broke closed book at break of tl. The red area was a mental stop. I will be looking for longs again next week.
TK
EDIT: if you had waited and watched all week.. this would have been the only fib you needed perhaps for months. RR for me is tricky because when i see things I know, I am not going to fail. To idiot proof my own fibbing i do use mental look out areas, but this was cut and dry.
Bloody hell... doing weekend wrap just found this bad lad. Could have had a cleaner trade exit.
TK
Ignored
Thom, that is exactly what I have on my chart at the moment. Look at the daily. I'm starting to wonder if we would be better off to draw these fibs on the 4hr, daily, weekly first and then trade them from the 1hr.
EDIT: When I say "trade them from the 1hr", I mean either finding a smaller fib for entry or trading the break of a respecting candle.
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Joined Mar 2009
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Status: trader of the lost ark
|792 Posts
I think one of the problems I've had is that I tend to fib too many candles. Which is fine as long as you can see the respect from higher timeframes.
I think the higher the timeframe you can see the S/R from, the stronger that S/R is. So in theory your fib should be stronger if it's getting respect on higher timeframes.
I think one of the problems I've had is that I tend to fib too many candles. Which is fine as long as you can see the respect from higher timeframes.
I think the higher the timeframe you can see the S/R from, the stronger that S/R is. So in theory your fib should be stronger if it's getting respect on higher timeframes.
Ignored
Skunny Said... weekly is the best... and he had rules for 15 min. He said he trade 1 hr from 15m at the time and looked to see the daily direction.
I am somewhat biased as i have been trading for quite some time... so sometime.. i see things i know generally do whatever so i will put my fibs on therein conjunction where i might be able to find something going against my instinct.
But the key for me is knowing the direction and a target.. right now everyting fib despite all reason(broken markets fire and brimstone etc..) is showing me short dollar. So my trade plan for next week is potentially scalp gy eu short but look for a good reason to get reallllllly long off of a fib hit or a strong sr area.
My suggestion for you... find a daily candle fib and take a smaller 1 hr fib inside those bounds and in that direction. Test it first... but 10 -30 pips on say eu if you can risk nothing... well that is the whole world.
Try this. Set your charts up before monday morning. Then was the mkt opens if you have say a triggered daily. or a trigered anything.. wait until a swing or two forms and act accordingly. I see an early sell off next week followed by a rally but i have to trade price as it comes.
The concept of stronger is valid but not valid.. but it is.. it is hard to explain..it is a rabbit hole that leads to having 45 fibs on your chart. fib daily and trade hourly accordingly.
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Joined Mar 2009
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Status: trader of the lost ark
|792 Posts
Here is a good example of what I'm talking about. I would prefer fib 2 over fib 1 when looking at the daily chart.
Fib 1 only has 1 inner respecting candle.
Fib 2 has 2 inner respecting candles.
But, when you look at a weekly chart. Fib 1 is clearly the correct fib. Fib 2 has no respect on the weekly chart so I believe it is invalid. (Keep in mind we would be drawing these fibs before the cycle completes)
This is why I think drawing our longer range fibs on as high of a time frame as possible is critical to getting the cycle correct.
Bartstop
EDIT: I posted this before I saw Thom's response posted above.
I am long and i have a target. So I will drop down in h1 and look for longs.
On my h1 the blue box is where i would like to take my long from it. It could gap into target or just go straight to target but we are long so my job is track short and go long... OR factor in enough draw down and just go blindly long OR re wait until market open and find another long fib and just take that. Does that make dollars and cents? If I traded the cable that would be my trade plan.
I am long and i have a target. So I will drop down in h1 and look for longs.
On my h1 the blue box is where i would like to take my long from it. It could gap into target or just go straight to target but we are long so my job is track short and go long... OR factor in enough draw down and just go blindly long OR re wait until market open and find another long fib and just take that. Does that make dollars and cents? If I traded the cable that would be my trade plan.
TK
Ignored
Thom, I believe we are on the same page. Your first chart highlights what i've been missing.
When I start making real money at this, I'm going to come buy you a beer. Or whatever your choice of drink may be.
Here is a good example of what I'm talking about. I would prefer fib 2 over fib 1 when looking at the daily chart.
Fib 1 only has 1 inner respecting candle.
Fib 2 has 2 inner respecting candles.
But, when you look at a weekly chart. Fib 1 is clearly the correct fib. Fib 2 has no respect on the weekly chart so I believe it is invalid. (Keep in mind we would be drawing these fibs before the cycle completes)
This is why I think drawing our longer range fibs on as high of a time frame as possible is critical to getting the cycle correct.
Bartstop...
Ignored
there is no reason for either fib 2... fib one hit to the tick and never breached... why would they be there? if you were on your ps and q's and pulled this back and down.. you would have been short on a smaller time frame from the rejection of the 61.8 after the pierce. ...seeing things such as this it still amazes me people think Skunny fibs are hocus pocus.
this is the first position 61.8 and also a last position pull back swing fib... you would be tracking/trading pricing long from this hit UNTIL the low was broken or price started leading you short. OR go nuts and map a much larger fib that a fib level long coincides with this and go massively long if it exists.
this was the only fib I had... if the low breaches i will move and go shorter. On smaller time frames you may find a reversal that leads us into shorter ranges so dont worry if we get to a point where price is signalling below this established boundary.
remember this is all about this chart.fibs overlay eachother infinite times from 1 second to a 1.56754hour chart to 4.35 year chart. most important thing for us traders... when we see something like this... ourlives are fantastically easy... no owrry about this or that just drop down and look long and slay the beast.
Thom, I believe we are on the same page. Your first chart highlights what i've been missing.
When I start making real money at this, I'm going to come buy you a beer. Or whatever your choice of drink may be.
Bartstop
Ignored
No worries Mate! I will take a pint of bitter anyday. Just give back that is all you should do. Once you can trade where the market is free money by and large give back to those who are less fortunate. Teach other chaps to trade donate some lucre to charity etc.
A big part is when you see something as bang on as that GU... just only trade those. Trades abound. Skunny once said 400% per month is reasonable and it is, but 30% per week is fine too. when you see these sets you are ahead of 99% of the other traders because you KNOW where price is going not educated guessing. That being said.. be prudent.
there is no reason for either fib 2... fib one hit to the tick and never breached... why would they be there? if you were on your ps and q's and pulled this back and down.. you would have been short on a smaller time frame from the rejection of the 61.8 after the pierce. ...seeing things such as this it still amazes me people think Skunny fibs are hocus pocus.
this is the first position 61.8 and also a last position pull back swing fib... you would be tracking/trading pricing long from this hit UNTIL the low was broken or price started leading...
Ignored
That's another thing I'm guilty of. I've only been pulling up/down. I need to be pulling back as well.
That's another thing I'm guilty of. I've only been pulling up/down. I need to be pulling back as well.
Bartstop
Ignored
I use those when i do for tracking the 61.8 for me is the magic property so I would have pulled to the 61.8 then i always shift click and tug back.. in this instance... set up your 61.8 would have illuminated a triggered trade and you would have had to wait for the breach if you did not want. set a very tight stop on a smaller time frame and go sailing. Or set a mkt order at the 0 since second breaches generally shoot to tgt and do the same.
Just give back that is all you should do. Once you can trade where the market is free money by and large give back to those who are less fortunate. Teach other chaps to trade donate some lucre to charity etc.
TK
Ignored
That's part of the reason I post so many charts. I know there are several silent followers of this thread and I try to make it obvious what we are doing and why we are doing it.
It's tuff learning anything in a discussion forum. I try to make it a little easier on the newbies.
That's part of the reason I post so many charts. I know there are several silent followers of this thread and I try to make it obvious what we are doing and why we are doing it.
It's tuff learning anything in a discussion forum. I try to make it a little easier on the newbies.
Bartstop
Ignored
I have always found... all the university in the bloody world doesnt meet muster to a day on the job.
I use those when i do for tracking the 61.8 for me is the magic property so I would have pulled to the 61.8 then i always shift click and tug back.. in this instance... set up your 61.8 would have illuminated a triggered trade and you would have had to wait for the breach if you did not want. set a very tight stop on a smaller time frame and go sailing. Or set a mkt order at the 0 since second breaches generally shoot to tgt and do the same.
TK
Ignored
So let me get this straight. With your 100 anchored at the high and your 0 anchored at the low of the previous swing. As soon as you saw the 61.8 hit, that fib was as good as a fib that has already pierced the 0?
