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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #225,801
  • May 21, 2010 12:57pm May 21, 2010 12:57pm
...if I look at my chart on Daily, I see that we are at the bottom of a channel and might well go up for a while...and given, that the yen is not all that up because of fundamentals or else, it might well be that the downside is limited - at least for now...

Happy weekend..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: geppy.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #225,802
  • May 21, 2010 1:01pm May 21, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting shanem
Hi Guys,

New to fx can u tell me which strategy do u use to trade fx.

appreciate the help

here ... if you study this,,then you are way ahead of most traders on this threat .... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=206723

it works,,its easy,,its the most powerfull tool. in this game... dont use ind..dont use TL ..cuck it away and study SUPP and ress levels,,its all what you need,,nothing more,nothing less ... PA and supp & ress levels...

ind. is bunch of crap .. you will slowly wipe your acc with indicators
  • #225,803
  • May 21, 2010 1:10pm May 21, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting 4rexLady_de
...if I look at my chart on Daily, I see that we are at the bottom of a channel and might well go up for a while...and given, that the yen is not all that up because of fundamentals or else, it might well be that the downside is limited - at least for now...

Happy weekend..
by your daily channel geppy could go up to 137 but in that case the weekly view shall be broken to upside which is highly unlikely
  • #225,804
  • May 21, 2010 1:15pm May 21, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting fullhouse
who see the confluence are for short ???

its at 131. XX ?? who can say the last 2 digits ? .. i forgoit about that one ..lol i dont think we willl see 133... the bear flag is here and cant get ignor ..
yip,...Daily may close as a Doji...to FU** With our minds...131 is where the Trap is....for sure...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #225,805
  • May 21, 2010 1:16pm May 21, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting shanem
Hi Guys, New to fx can u tell me which strategy do u use to trade fx. appreciate the help
I commend you on having posted that you lost $50K and are down to $2K, but you really shouldn't have let it come to that. I too have lost lots of money, but man was it a lesson like no other. You seem to be still fairly novice at it. In terms of a strategy, there are tons that can work, but the holy grail question is which one will work at any given time in the market. I'd urge you to spend inordinate amounts of time studying the basics, reading FF, and demo trading a $5K or $10K account or whatever amount you plan to eventually trade as opposed to the unrealistic $1M/$100K demo accounts one can setup. If I were to provide a starting link, I have high regard for this one: http://www.informedtrades.com/f302/

I will also mention that the market has changed tremendously since Thursday May 6. IMHO it is a terrible time for beginners to launch with real money because the moves over these weeks are drastically different to what's been the norm for the year before.
  • #225,806
  • May 21, 2010 1:27pm May 21, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting Raza
yip,...Daily may close as a Doji...to FU** With our minds...131 is where the Trap is....for sure...
raza you here ??
  • #225,807
  • May 21, 2010 1:31pm May 21, 2010 1:31pm
hi everyone
i'm in a short trade with a bit of a drawdown currently, enough that i would consider leaving part of it open over the weekend if there were a good chance of seeing a drop on sunday.

ah... on second thought i do realize how this is gambling. taking the loss is probably my only recourse. do any of the more experienced traders here ever leave positions open over the wkend ? (perhaps positions at BE or better, but these can still get stopped out, right...)

cheers all
good weekend

oops - pair is G/J
  • #225,808
  • May 21, 2010 1:37pm May 21, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting metlife777
by your daily channel geppy could go up to 137 but in that case the weekly view shall be broken to upside which is highly unlikely
Well, we all know how easy it is for this pair to move even 1000 Pips in an eyeblink..ok, thatīs mostly just some panic reactions.
Normal movements are around 400 to 600 per day...and given the rate it went down, it could as well go up the same way.
And before it also didnīt care much about weekly, etc.....so it might as well easily brake further down...who knows.

I am well aware of the surrounding situation and I am not saying that the upside move is going to happen... I am just looking at the possibilities.

Happy weekend
  • #225,809
  • May 21, 2010 1:37pm May 21, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting Geppy
I took a long at 127.80 and targeting 130.70 with consideration to get short around between there and 131.00

geppy draw pls your fibs from 2 highs ... both use the same low ..at 126.74
ok..

1..use high at 139.82 and mark your 382..
2 use high at 134.29 area and mark your 618..

do you see THAT confluence area ..

right at 131.70 ...and look closely it was prev supp and all over huge supp/ress level..
  • #225,810
  • May 21, 2010 1:48pm May 21, 2010 1:48pm
but look at that confluence are of gbp/usd,,where we are heading ... look that closely for shorts ...

use high at 1.5523 with recent low
and mark you 382

use high at 1.5057 and mark you 618

look at that confl area 1.4722/1.4739 ..prev supp area ..

I LOVE THIS ONE !!!!

250 pips awy from that level and gbp/jpy roughly 200 pips away from that level..so hopefully both will there at the same time
  • #225,811
  • May 21, 2010 2:32pm May 21, 2010 2:32pm
BBBBBBBEEEEEEEEAAAAAAARRR FLAAAAGGGGGGG!!! gap on opening lets take it!!

http://i291.photobucket.com/albums/l...m_classic1.jpg

HAPPY WEEKEND EVERYBODY!
  • #225,812
  • May 21, 2010 2:48pm May 21, 2010 2:48pm
GJ, GU,others up 40+ pips in the last 15 min before NY 4pm close: they're trying to get S&P above 1090 to avoid a bearish flag close on the week. (currently @ 1080) - monitor it here)
  • #225,813
  • May 21, 2010 2:55pm May 21, 2010 2:55pm
Quoting 4rexLady_de
Well, we all know how easy it is for this pair to move even 1000 Pips in an eyeblink..ok, thatīs mostly just some panic reactions.
Normal movements are around 400 to 600 per day...and given the rate it went down, it could as well go up the same way.
And before it also didnīt care much about weekly, etc.....so it might as well easily brake further down...who knows.

I am well aware of the surrounding situation and I am not saying that the upside move is going to happen... I am just looking at the possibilities.

Happy weekend
the panic is fundamentally grounded because both currencies (EUR and GBP) are pretty close to be damaged pretty much (the situation is more serious than it was in 2008)
  • #225,814
  • May 21, 2010 3:06pm May 21, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting metlife777
the panic is fundamentally grounded because both currencies (EUR and GBP) are pretty close to be damaged pretty much (the situation is more serious than it was in 2008)
the financial crisis is not just eur and gbp...its worldwide ..it will be more a mess for me than one str8 trend..US not that good in shape either..hey but im a nooob in that kind of stuff..ill stick with technical..

anyway a close above 130.50 would be good,,,then on sunday a retrace back to 130.50 ,would be ok for long,for a few pips..
  • #225,815
  • May 21, 2010 3:21pm May 21, 2010 3:21pm
Good weekend to all. Any close below 130.70 suggests continued downside movement. Continued lower highs throughout the afternoon.
  • #225,816
  • May 21, 2010 3:21pm May 21, 2010 3:21pm
g-u already broke above the descending channel. here is the chart.

also, when looking at weekly, we can see the highest volume bar EVER. and the candle that is about to close in 40 minutes doesn't look bearish at all - what i'm trying to say is that this configuration on huge volume doesn't really say hello bears.

we might have a bottom in place. if it's a trend reversal, or just a retracement, time will tell. let's see if it can reach 1.5250 first and then we'll take it from there.

Quoting Beljevina
GJ, GU,others up 40+ pips in the last 15 min before NY 4pm close: they're trying to get S&P above 1090 to avoid a bearish flag close on the week. (currently @ 1080) - monitor it here)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g-u-d.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: g-u-wk.gif Size: 19 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #225,817
  • May 21, 2010 3:27pm May 21, 2010 3:27pm
correct. g-j is not a buy, at least not now. will be IF it goes above 131.60 after today's close, but until then better sell into all rallies.

now, if 131.60 is broken, then we should see a retracement to the upper limit of monthly descending channel - but not higher than 143.20 area...

Quoting Beljevina
I don't think we're into any buying territory. Althought the VIX has shown some rebounding, bearishness and anxiety is still extremely high. We've seen a classic rejection off 130.8; I would have expected another retry up to at least 130.2/3, but it looks like real weakness is keeping it from that. The DPP is around 129.45, and if we drop below it, I don't think we're getting back up today.

Eventual upside rebounds are limited to the halfway downchannel point around 132, and if broken, upside is a fib retrace at 134.5 and a maximum overshoot of...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #225,818
  • May 21, 2010 3:49pm May 21, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting 4rexLady_de
...if I look at my chart on Daily, I see that we are at the bottom of a channel and might well go up for a while...and given, that the yen is not all that up because of fundamentals or else, it might well be that the downside is limited - at least for now...

Happy weekend..
The opposite side of the coin, though IS true. The GBP IS down due to fundamentals. I'm just saying...
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #225,819
  • May 21, 2010 4:13pm May 21, 2010 4:13pm
Quoting Scrat
correct. g-j is not a buy, at least not now. will be IF it goes above 131.60 after today's close, but until then better sell into all rallies.

now, if 131.60 is broken, then we should see a retracement to the upper limit of monthly descending channel - but not higher than 143.20 area...

scrat i agree with that analysis,,but we move too slowly upwards ,and more in a bear flag,,,

say if this was the bottom ,then it would move more rapidly to 132.60 ,and then we form a reversal formation...

but i do agree we are close to the bottom... we will one more test of the low,if its not a double bottom,then it would be a spike below yesterday's low...

i cant see with this sideways upwards move,,that this is the bottom... and daily candles clearly show also ,thats no reversal daily candle.

i bargain on a double bottom,if not, a spike


but look a tthe gbp/usd... i think thats the bottom right there..with a masive H&S is forming .neckline at 1.5 and left shoulder at 1.45.. but another quick test of the lows and thats about it...the same with gbp/jpy ... we can be at the lookout for double bottoms next week..

enjoy the week..im off
  • #225,820
  • May 21, 2010 4:21pm May 21, 2010 4:21pm
makes sense, thanks and enjoy the weekend.

Quoting fullhouse
scrat i agree with that analysis,,but we move too slowly upwards ,and more in a bear flag,,,

say if this was the bottom ,then it would move more rapidly to 132.60 ,and then we form a reversal formation...

but i do agree we are close to the bottom... we will one more test of the low,if its not a double bottom,then it would be a spike below yesterday's low...

i cant see with this sideways upwards move,,that this is the bottom... and daily candles clearly show also ,thats no reversal daily candle.

i bargain on a double bottom,if not, a spike...
Nihil Sine Deo.
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