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Retail Positioning - The Ultimate Contrarian Indicator

  • #81
  • May 20, 2010 8:10pm May 20, 2010 8:10pm
Anyone that's afraid of inflation needs to goto taco bell... $2 meals now! taco chips and a drink... seriously that w/ subway's 5$ subs, and there is no way we are out of a recession.

the other part that others dont think about is to have inflation you have spend! money... if you horde it there can not be inflation
  • #82
  • May 20, 2010 9:18pm May 20, 2010 9:18pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyXC4kyY-s0
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #83
  • May 20, 2010 11:40pm May 20, 2010 11:40pm
ahhh, that's classic!!!!

I wonder who made that, it's great!

-

usdcad update... I definitely got what I deserved on that one.
one of my trading rules is never make a trade the first 15 min I sit in front of comp... this afternoon I got back in from a mtn bike ride, and did the dirty - I figured - basically made up a temporary rule for myself - that because I was placing a stop order 'it was different' shame shame shame...

It was also a sloppy entry as I did not pay attention to RPM value, only it's perceived 'jump' which was really only due to my lack of not following rule 1

I placed 3 exits 10 pips apart below the low, because I really have no idea what it's going to do.
  • #84
  • May 21, 2010 6:09am May 21, 2010 6:09am
usdcad update out 3/4 for 12 pip loss
  • #85
  • Edited 9:00am May 21, 2010 7:17am | Edited 9:00am
Quoting qtmspin
Live charting - hey guys, let me know if something is not working on the website... or if you would like a feature... you never know what you will get unless you ask for it
Very good work!
I'm wondering if rpm weights price levels or calculates only the net long/short ratio. (I know there's more in it). If you look at this open positions book (you know the source) i'd be inclined to favor a contrarian long. At the time RPM was 0.36.

Keep up
Andrea
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  • #86
  • May 21, 2010 12:46pm May 21, 2010 12:46pm
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  • #87
  • May 21, 2010 1:24pm May 21, 2010 1:24pm
I heard today that Goldman Sachs made money every day of the 1st quarter.

I also heard that if you were to have followed their investment advice, you would have consistently lost money.

So logically that means they were on the other side of most of the recommendations that they made.
  • #88
  • May 21, 2010 1:39pm May 21, 2010 1:39pm
Quoting andrebalza
Very good work!
I'm wondering if rpm weights price levels or calculates only the net long/short ratio. (I know there's more in it). If you look at this open positions book (you know the source) i'd be inclined to favor a contrarian long. At the time RPM was 0.36.

Keep up
Andrea
Hey Andrea,

RPM does not weigh price levels as whats important is easier to see w/ the eye then figure mathematically.

I'd like to hear more about your strategy, Im always interested in other ways of looking at, measuring, and trading sentiment data. Can you post some pics w/ RPM and Oandas info your looking at w/ some explanation.

If you would like the indicator w/ hist data send me an email. rpmfxtrader at gmail

It's not live data yet, still working on a client.

good stuff
  • #89
  • May 21, 2010 1:49pm May 21, 2010 1:49pm
So far so clean on the UJ trade, I like the way it broke through that level...

Now I just have to watch to make sure that RPM doesn't shift suddenly. Ill look to add to the position if RPM stays high and price breaks second level

One of 2 things can happen here...
1. Retail got stopped out and banks/brokers took their winnings and exited (RPM goes down & price reverses)
2. Retail added to position and banks/brokers will continue moving price lower (RPM stays steady or rises & price continues lower)
  • #90
  • May 21, 2010 2:08pm May 21, 2010 2:08pm
Well, darn, RPM down...

Retail got stopped out, so price may reverse from here...

staggering stops above 90.18
  • #91
  • May 21, 2010 4:48pm May 21, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting qtmspin

If we can significantly decrease the % of retail fx traders that fail we will be hurting scam brokers, crooked banks, and funds at the same time.
Sweeeet!!!!!!!!!11
  • #92
  • May 21, 2010 5:09pm May 21, 2010 5:09pm
Is there also a way to have some jist of total volume similar to number of contracts? Just because I assume we are dealing with total buyers/sellers etc so it may be feasible to have another indicator window, with an oscillator of total volume? I believe this could be handy too... just to see what's going on, what pair to focus on more, when stop hunts are really on the cards because there's tons of money to be had?

I did read the thread and read something about volume, so sorry if I'm repeating myself like a donkey
  • #93
  • Edited May 22, 2010 8:24am May 21, 2010 7:47pm | Edited May 22, 2010 8:24am
Quoting qtmspin
Hey Andrea,

I'd like to hear more about your strategy, Im always interested in other ways of looking at, measuring, and trading sentiment data. Can you post some pics w/ RPM and Oandas info your looking at w/ some explanation.
I look at RPM to get the (contrarian) market sentiment for long term trend.
During these days in eurusd sentiment change I noticed some discrepancies that I think you can adjust in m30 timeframe. For now it's just a guess even if this friday "range" could already be a confirmation.

Have a look at the Oanda's open positions chart. There's a much bigger number of traders "losing short" (left down quadrant): I suppose that big money doesn't want to make them frofit (a loss for them), so that's their reason not to move market under 1.25 today.

Well the point is, if RPM would be assigning more importance to levels around the current price that would be more precise, at least for short timeframes around m30, maybe m15 too. A lot of open interest in "losing short (right up quadrant) but spreaded along a very wide range.

Anyway, what's going to happen to EU on monday? I guess a gap up on opening to clear some of short stops, or a down move around 1.252 to clear long stops without making profits for the big open interest of shorts below and then up again, or just plain up move with short squeeze if manages some way to go near the top of Tokyo range( which didn't succeed today). All of these, in any case not going too much under 1.244.
Except for big money "jolly card", keep the price waiting in range for a LOT of hours faking an uptrend to make longs OI bigger than the short amount down there.
Just my two cents don't trade upon these assumptions.

Keep up!

Andrea
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  • #94
  • May 21, 2010 8:03pm May 21, 2010 8:03pm
Yes Sim,

You are very right... I think that real volume would be a very important aspect for day trading retail positioning.

My first priority is getting the RPM indicator out to you guys so that you can use it on your charts.

Real volume on MT is quickly becoming a top priority in my book. Ill keep you posted in this thread...
  • #95
  • Edited 8:20pm May 21, 2010 8:10pm | Edited 8:20pm
I posted this thread originally in the interactive trading area, as I really don't want it to be a trading journal.

My goal is to introduce the RPM, and educate others on it's usage. I would really like to see how others are trading with it, using their own ideas and trading methods. It would be very rewarding for me to see others profiting from it and protecting themselves with it.

I'm only guessing that it hasn't caught on because the charts are online and not in the platform. So that is my main goal right now, it getting the RPM out so that you can use it on your charts and we can get a real thread going that has very little to do w/ my trading and a WHOLE lot to do w/ retailers kicking banks & brokers asses by attacking them w/ their own trading strategy.

btw Alot of algo traders on the CME and CBOT simply hunt out other traders strategies and using it against them... surprised? I just love the idea of profiting on banks/brokers that are profiting now from retail losses.
  • #96
  • May 22, 2010 11:26am May 22, 2010 11:26am
Quoting qtmspin
btw Alot of algo traders on the CME and CBOT simply hunt out other traders strategies and using it against them... surprised? I just love the idea of profiting on banks/brokers that are profiting now from retail losses.
^Dang that sucks!! Not surprised that all this dirrrteee manipulation goes on tho, sucks ass

With total volume, will we see only retail volume? Can there be ways of seeing total total volume and retail volume? I.e. a crude filter for smart and weak money?
  • #97
  • May 23, 2010 11:43pm May 23, 2010 11:43pm
I'm stopped out on all positions on UJ, got stopped out on opening gap.

--

andrebalza -

Good stuff. I've seen Oanda open positions info before, but I never took the time to understand it. I like how you coresponded it to the chart, good analysis. I especially like how you showed the open orders ratios at each level on the EU. Definatetly something to watch.

I find it interesting that it shows the ratio of buyers and sellers from different price levels, which will change as they are stopped out or take profits.

I'm amazed that there has not been a solid retail positioning thread before this one. I think it's very important info. I look forward to your next analysis.
  • #98
  • Edited 12:47am May 24, 2010 12:33am | Edited 12:47am
Quoting qtmspin
Yes Sim,

You are very right... I think that real volume would be a very important aspect for day trading retail positioning.

My first priority is getting the RPM indicator out to you guys so that you can use it on your charts.

Real volume on MT is quickly becoming a top priority in my book. Ill keep you posted in this thread...
Thankyou for your hard work, cant wait to get your rpm indicator on my charts. It is very generous of you to offer it.
Quoting andrebalza
I look at RPM to get the (contrarian) market sentiment for long term trend.
During these days in eurusd sentiment change I noticed some discrepancies that I think you can adjust in m30 timeframe. For now it's just a guess even if this friday "range" could already be a confirmation.

Have a look at the Oanda's open positions chart. There's a much bigger number of traders "losing short" (left down quadrant): I suppose that big money doesn't want to make them frofit (a loss for them), so that's their reason not to move market under 1.25 today....
Nice work lining up the Oanda positioning with a price chart. One thing I have noticed with Oanda is that sometimes the sentiment differs from fxcm ssi and that in those instances the Oanda traders have been correct making the ssi indicator more reliable for contrarian trading than Oanda's positioning.
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #99
  • May 24, 2010 3:53am May 24, 2010 3:53am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
One thing I have noticed with Oanda is that sometimes the sentiment differs from fxcm ssi and that in those instances the Oanda traders have been correct making the ssi indicator more reliable for contrarian trading than Oanda's positioning.
Qtmspin and M.A.C.Doug thank you for your appreciation.
I also have a look at SSI, and i think it would be more useful if updated more frequently (now it's daily if you're their client) .

I also think that in this phase of 'shifting sentiment' the short term moves can be more exactly estimated by looking at the short term positioning, a thing that oandas' chart allow to estimate more exactly than SSI.

If you look at the oanda chart the big part of losing long positions are so splattered along that a long at 1.37 (but even at 1.27) is totally worthless to determine a short term direction for the big boys.

Anyway eurusd is now @ 1.2434 and I'm patiently waiting for the short squeeze

All the best guys for your trading. Let's kick banks ass
  • #100
  • May 24, 2010 11:57am May 24, 2010 11:57am
Not sure whats going on here, but make sure you are a member at the rpmfx blog and well find a new home if we've outstayed our welcome at FF for some still unknown reason...
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