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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,361
  • May 18, 2010 4:15am May 18, 2010 4:15am
i put another long at 1.0301, and will open another long at 1.01xx. hopefully this moment is coming soon.
  • #3,362
  • May 18, 2010 4:30am May 18, 2010 4:30am
Quoting Duce
? Long Loonie means short eagle...not beaver.

I know loonie = $ / cad & beaver = Cad / yen . but what do u mean of

eagle !?

  • #3,363
  • May 18, 2010 2:18pm May 18, 2010 2:18pm
Quoting Cotton-I-Jo
I know loonie = $ / cad & beaver = Cad / yen . but what do u mean of

eagle !?

Canadian animal symbols are the beaver, the polar bear and the loonie.

US animal symbol is the eagle.

Mexico is the house fly.

Greece is the sheep.

Italy is the jack-ass.

Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,364
  • May 18, 2010 5:04pm May 18, 2010 5:04pm
USD index has breached the 86.00 level, which is now support. The weekly charts are very similar to the 2009. Both in price action and directionality.

How far to go. Next train station is 88.50 then to 90 on the Index which should bring the Euro down to below 1.20 level. For all goods and purposes 1.20 just seems to be a matter of time. The 90 level is significant in that it is the 38.2% retrace of the big USD bear move starting back in 2002 which went for six years ending in summer of 2008

Got a sell on the Aud/Usd on a break of the 55 EMA on weeklies. Markets still seem to be focused on inflation even though the breaking Euro remains deflationary for USD. Pyschology will change quickly if equities keep tanking. That implies a decent move on the short commodity theme.

Have a really powerful move in that if it continues could make fortunes.
  • #3,365
  • May 18, 2010 7:19pm May 18, 2010 7:19pm
Quoting Duce
Canadian animal symbols are the beaver, the polar bear and the loonie.

US animal symbol is the eagle.

Mexico is the house fly.

Greece is the sheep.

Italy is the jack-ass.

DUCE: I doff my toque to you ,eh!

Kudoes & green pips to ya!
  • #3,366
  • May 18, 2010 9:33pm May 18, 2010 9:33pm
TP at 1.0403 with 100 pips profit. i will seek for a chance to put another long position if this pair goes down again.
  • #3,367
  • May 18, 2010 10:12pm May 18, 2010 10:12pm
i see a very strong resistance at 1.0420 let see if todays trend will break this resistance.
  • #3,368
  • May 19, 2010 10:09am May 19, 2010 10:09am
The market appears to be moving on rumors of C.B intervention to support the Euro. Just yesterday high ranking European officials ( think it was Stark) said they were not concerned with currency levels. Take it all with a grain of salt. Just shows how confused policy makers are.

The market can simply say, do what you want with your money, but I am out of here to European officials.

Any move to strengthen EURO against USD has resulted in a selloff in commodity currencies.
Balancing Euro shorts with commodity shorts will remove portfolio volatility. (equities were weak overnight trade) Market tends to balance out imbalances via hedgers.
Hedgers are a specialized group who make their living picking up all the pennies everyone else throws around.
  • #3,369
  • Edited 4:07pm May 19, 2010 3:56pm | Edited 4:07pm
Watch the long USD positions tonite. There is a concerted effort to knock the USD lower on the USD Index. It has been going on all day. Some kind of high frequency sell program to run the stops.

Probably have exceeded some soverign bands of movement established for itself. They seem to equate a weak dollar with stock market rallies.

Do not be naive and think the markets are all above board. There is a lot of dirty plays that go on all the time.
  • #3,370
  • May 19, 2010 8:12pm May 19, 2010 8:12pm
Still long. I scalped three nice trades today while driving from meeting to meeting. My other longs are all green and open. I have 1.07 in my sights. Not sure when or if it will get there, but I have it charted. Over 1.0489 again would be great. 1.0411 is my key support level. I have big SLs but the USDX tells me I should be okay....for now.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,371
  • May 19, 2010 8:34pm May 19, 2010 8:34pm
FOTO: thanks for the news, I was wondering what the HecK happened ( especially, your Aud & comm$ info yesterday).

Then, I glanced @ E/CH for today's PA!!!!!! SNB was my initial reaction....but couldn't be (or could it?).

I'm gonna be flat until the weekend & attempt to see if any chart patterns
show some high probability trades next week. Might just snipe @ E/CH as it drifts down for a few pips.

These measures suggest to me, a great fear underlying the present actions, & in my oft ill-informed opinion will ultimately fail.

The US$ is beginning its bullish phase ( & I shall take that to the bank)!
The Euro is on "life support". The politicos,the CBs & the Huge Players are just buying time.

Your AUD/US W chart still looks as if further downside movement probable ( but "keep yer stick on the ice").
  • #3,372
  • May 19, 2010 9:14pm May 19, 2010 9:14pm
Just finished reading lastest blog from someone who I gleam information from. I consider his thoughts in the same manner as I consider the wisdom imparted by FOTO.

This latest post was:" You can run for awhile with an artificial currency system & enrich entrenched interests,but sooner or later the market will come back to bite you ; if there is no solid ground to form a common currency in the first place. The game isn't over yet, but the fat lady is warming up her voice." babypips.com go to blogs go to currency currents.
  • #3,373
  • May 19, 2010 9:35pm May 19, 2010 9:35pm
Hey DUCE: for short tf stuff, I am like you- long. I await a D close > 1.0500 to add to longs.

You be trading great so I thinks I shall call you "PipMaster".

Watch E/Ch for retrace.
  • #3,374
  • May 19, 2010 10:13pm May 19, 2010 10:13pm
i'm still waiting fot this pair back to 1.03xx 1.04xx i think is not a good level to put a long transaction, i know there is a chance this pair will goes to 1.07xx without pulling back to 1.03xx but hopefully this pair canback to 1.03xx so i can open my long.
  • #3,375
  • May 19, 2010 10:39pm May 19, 2010 10:39pm
Quoting Scarecru
Hey DUCE: for short tf stuff, I am like you- long. I await a D close > 1.0500 to add to longs.

Watch E/Ch for retrace.
At a D close above 1.05 I'll be moving up my (mental) SLs. I just hope we get over that again. Under 1.0397 I see 1.0322.

I'm watching other pairs right now. Hopefully we will bounce at 1.1483 UChf. If not, and we go decisively through 1.145x, then I'll may decide to close some UC trades.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,376
  • May 19, 2010 10:41pm May 19, 2010 10:41pm
Quoting yeri
i'm still waiting fot this pair back to 1.03xx 1.04xx i think is not a good level to put a long transaction, i know there is a chance this pair will goes to 1.07xx without pulling back to 1.03xx but hopefully this pair canback to 1.03xx so i can open my long.
I sure hope we don't see 1.03xx.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,377
  • May 20, 2010 3:19am May 20, 2010 3:19am
that is because you allready open a lot of transaction . anyway nice trading everyone, i think this can make us rich at this moment.
  • #3,378
  • May 20, 2010 7:29am May 20, 2010 7:29am
Hey Scarecru,
EURO/USD didn't resume its downtrend overnite and the 4 hr chart appears to be making some kind of flattening if a bit early to say a turn up.

Do not really have a handle on what the market is reflecting at this time.

With Friday almost here the floor traders will be closing out the week soon so am inclined to think the market will be flat thru tommorow.

Commodity weakness continued but USD/CAD is reaching what should be a resistance area. The AUD did well to the downside.

Seems as if the USD index selling backed off with the 5 pm close. Then this morning China decided to open their mouth again and warn the US gov't about fiscal discipline.

Something may be brewing. Keep on your toes.
  • #3,379
  • Edited 9:29pm May 20, 2010 7:02pm | Edited 9:29pm
Quoting Duce
May 19 (22 hrs ago) Still long. I scalped three nice trades today while driving from meeting to meeting. My other longs are all green and open. I have 1.07 in my sights. Not sure when or if it will get there, but I have it charted. Over 1.0489 again would be great. 1.0411 is my key support level. I have big SLs but the USDX tells me I should be okay....for now.
1.0744 is a fibo line....HIT. Took a small short (+25 now). May or may not hold it longer.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,380
  • May 20, 2010 7:24pm May 20, 2010 7:24pm
Thought that I was flat loonie but last minute check last night suggested buy.

The W OZ chart you posted was just too powerful not to sell. Have 2 TPPs 1st: 7984 2nd 7089 (remember these are Wly tfs).

My beaver short hit 1st TPP @ 83.70. Next that I am watching is 80.25.

Got a sell bias (just looking for possible entry) on NZ/Y TPP 54.13

loonie H tf looks like -ve STO div so may just snipe tonight.

The mega action today netted 600+ pips (bless you pip gods)

FOTO: Your Grasshopper/ant scenario those many months ago appears to be more & more prophetic. I am paying more attention to the M charts onthe various pairs & they suggest further Loooooonnnnng term downside.
eg: note us/cad M chart Oct/'07 or G/Y in same parameters.
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