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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,461
  • May 19, 2010 2:55am May 19, 2010 2:55am
Quoting jest1081
Baifu,

if i may ask. are you trading on demo or with real money?
coz if you're trading on real money and could withstand such manouvres then, i have no comments it means you are as stable as a rock.

since you're dwelving in MM right now, i'll just share a thing or two in my very limited experience.

1. Trust me campaigns especially when extended, WILL wear you out.
Have you ever had to fight a battle for 3 days...non stop, just to get back to break even?
2. Equity when highly risked, WILL affect mental stability.
Well said ! I sometimes dun sleep for 03 days too!
  • #15,462
  • May 19, 2010 3:05am May 19, 2010 3:05am
Quoting jest1081
Baifu,

if i may ask. are you trading on demo or with real money?
coz if you're trading on real money and could withstand such manouvres then, i have no comments it means you are as stable as a rock.

since you're dwelving in MM right now, i'll just share a thing or two in my very limited experience.

1. Trust me campaigns especially when extended, WILL wear you out.
Have you ever had to fight a battle for 3 days...non stop, just to get back to break even?
2. Equity when highly risked, WILL affect mental stability.

You said...
I believe fti trades with very high frequency as well.

Let's see if SNB wants to release euro for a free fall today.
  • #15,463
  • May 19, 2010 4:48am May 19, 2010 4:48am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Hi guys,
As a recent new Kindle dx addict and more then 2 hours commute my reading has gone off the charts....wanted some quick input i am planning to read the following book..

Against the Gods


any idea where i can get this book.....dont say amazon

The Nature of risk


V

PS: anyone on skype????
send me your email add and i will send you a copy, cannot attach copy here it's quite big it's a very nice reading material
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,464
  • May 19, 2010 5:10am May 19, 2010 5:10am
Quoting jest1081
Baifu,

if i may ask. are you trading on demo or with real money?
coz if you're trading on real money and could withstand such manouvres then, i have no comments it means you are as stable as a rock.

since you're dwelving in MM right now, i'll just share a thing or two in my very limited experience.

1. Trust me campaigns especially when extended, WILL wear you out.
Have you ever had to fight a battle for 3 days...non stop, just to get back to break even?
2. Equity when highly risked, WILL affect mental stability.

You said you send out...
Jest,
All the charts and blotters I posted are in the same demo acct set up to test my position sizing strategies. All you and others said about the problems of doing this with real money is very valid, and I am taking them all into consideration. Thank you all.

Since I read Van Tharp in 2002 I have been fascinated by his sermon, “it’s all about position sizing”, but apart from stories ad nauseum of marble draws and snowballs he never told us how (I suspect he doesn’t know, but then I never pay for his expensive seminars, just read all his books). Only when I stumbled upon the TAF thread did I find someone (fti) who not only knows how but gives it away free (okay, he keeps certain things secret and he calls it skew).

From the start I have practised his method with high skew because 1,1,2 do not give much position sizing possibilities. The result has been astounding even discounting it is demo and the weak link of ME is absent. I do not know what to make of it, last week this method made 4623 pips, the week before 2175 pips. I never had a single losing session of in all 32 sessions (no trade March April because of impossible Oanda connection while in Hong Kong). There was one 3-day, one 2-day, and one overnight campaign.

This morning I turned down my skew level (capped at lvl 7, then lvl 5), sized for 700 troops, max gearing was 5 in short spurts, most of the time gearing was under 1. Squared at 10:40 CET after 3 h 20 min campaign, made 432 pips, 1.16% profit (€/pip ratio is lower because of low gearing), max DD 0.7%.

Hope no one thinks I am bragging - this is just demo performance, not the real deal - I just want to inspire more position sizing / skew discussions.


Rgs,
Baifu
p.s. will explain my MO, MM and spy thingy when there is more time
  • #15,465
  • May 19, 2010 6:14am May 19, 2010 6:14am
Quoting Baifu
Only when I stumbled upon the TAF thread did I find someone (fti) who not only knows how but gives it away free (okay, he keeps certain things secret and he calls it skew).[/font][/size]
No, he didn't keep secret. It's all in the thread. A few things such as long term sward , hedging, he didn't discuss further because it's beyond individual trader's capacity. For the skew--even himself change the skew sequence dynamically according to volatility and market conditions, it would be impossible for him to teach the skew on every market condition. The skew also depends on capital and personal risk preference-- everybody has to do his own math.
  • #15,466
  • May 19, 2010 7:28am May 19, 2010 7:28am
Quoting piccolo

Let's see if SNB wants to release euro for a free fall today.
I think your question was just answered

A lot of chatter about EU-wide short selling ban today...
Anyone looked at the Dow daily charts recently? Rings a bell?
Bounds are being broken and bounds are being rebuilt.
Interesting times...
  • #15,467
  • May 19, 2010 9:26am May 19, 2010 9:26am
Quoting piccolo
I believe fti trades with very high frequency as well.

Let's see if SNB wants to release euro for a free fall today.
yes during attacks. rescue? havent seen one yet.
  • #15,468
  • May 19, 2010 9:28am May 19, 2010 9:28am
Baifu, you don't have to worry about extended battles and if your read of the market is correct. You looked like you replaced constant analysis with purely skew trading.
  • #15,469
  • May 19, 2010 11:00am May 19, 2010 11:00am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Baifu, you don't have to worry about extended battles and if your read of the market is correct. You looked like you replaced constant analysis with purely skew trading.
Mark,
I guess you might say that.

Whew what an afternoon, rolling square log uphill 84 pips (first entry 1.22179, last exit 1.23022, I was bear EUR) to eek out 0.15% profit, suffered several Swiss bank spikes. Skew was low, capped at lvl 5.

From the look of the charts smart I called it a day.

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #15,470
  • Edited 2:11pm May 19, 2010 1:46pm | Edited 2:11pm
One day silence, in respect for, Mr Goh KengSwee, Minister of Finance(retired) Singapore. RIP.

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Thank you to the Old Guards.
You made us proud.
Hormat !!

Inserted Video
  • #15,471
  • Edited 2:13pm May 19, 2010 1:51pm | Edited 2:13pm
Quoting fti
One day silence, in respect for, Mr Goh KengSwee, Minister of Finance(retired) Singapore.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mCrQkoPeiQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2O67SyJiyzY
My condolences.
Welcom back FTI.
  • #15,472
  • May 19, 2010 2:15pm May 19, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting fti
One day silence, in respect for, Mr Goh KengSwee, Minister of Finance(retired) Singapore. RIP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mCrQkoPeiQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2O67SyJiyzY

Thank you to the Old Guards.
You made us proud.
Hormat !!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WRoWPhLU2Q
SALUTE !
  • #15,473
  • May 19, 2010 2:42pm May 19, 2010 2:42pm
Hello friends
Fti, good to see you. I also enjoy to "salute"
  • #15,474
  • May 20, 2010 1:47am May 20, 2010 1:47am
Quoting fti
One day silence, in respect for, Mr Goh KengSwee, Minister of Finance(retired) Singapore. RIP.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mCrQkoPeiQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2O67SyJiyzY

Thank you to the Old Guards.
You made us proud.
Hormat !!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WRoWPhLU2Q
A most brilliant man. Dr Goh was.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #15,475
  • May 20, 2010 9:50am May 20, 2010 9:50am
Hi Friends!

Rough times these days.
But it offers you an excellent opportuniuty to study the emotions of the market participants.
I'm dancing USDJPY today. The run down from 9000 to 8900 with all it's ups and downs has shown reactions like fear and panic several times. Especially the speed/dynamic of the moves.

Wish you all the best!

CU,
MaMood
  • #15,476
  • May 20, 2010 9:58am May 20, 2010 9:58am
eyes are on e/u 2324-58 area looking for direction
  • #15,477
  • May 20, 2010 10:18am May 20, 2010 10:18am
Hi again!

For those, that are interested in ....

Today I traded mostly the emotions and panic attacks of the market participants.

Ok, I know that this is in some ways a little different to fti's teachings.
But it is an example for feeling the market and trading PA only.

CU,
MaMood
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Statement.pdf   18 KB | 508 downloads
  • #15,478
  • May 20, 2010 10:45am May 20, 2010 10:45am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again!

For those, that are interested in ....

Today I traded mostly the emotions and panic attacks of the market participants.

Ok, I know that this is in some ways a little different to fti's teachings.
But it is an example for feeling the market and trading PA only.

CU,
MaMood
  • #15,479
  • May 20, 2010 10:57am May 20, 2010 10:57am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again!

For those, that are interested in ....

Today I traded mostly the emotions and panic attacks of the market participants.

Ok, I know that this is in some ways a little different to fti's teachings.
But it is an example for feeling the market and trading PA only.

CU,
MaMood
Blitzkrieg!
  • #15,480
  • May 20, 2010 11:03am May 20, 2010 11:03am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again!

For those, that are interested in ....

Today I traded mostly the emotions and panic attacks of the market participants.

Ok, I know that this is in some ways a little different to fti's teachings.
But it is an example for feeling the market and trading PA only.

CU,
MaMood
WOW
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