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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #225,621
  • May 20, 2010 10:07am May 20, 2010 10:07am
Quoting Beljevina
UJ is 30 pips (89) from that Thursday selloff low, and looks like it's being bought, but greater buying in previous sessions provided very temporary relief. Can't say there's signs of other yen cross buying, so, expecting more down, and selling the rallies off a M1. GL to all.
Definite buyers have shown up on the yen crosses. H4 (NY close) has 2hrs to go and we've got a bouncy pin bar; if you go by London H4, the bar is built, and they're packing it in in the next half hour. VIX is at a super high 43 level, and S&P has broken the 200 day MA. Still holding on to some 134 shorts. For buying, tough call, unless you're a careful scalper. Weird thing is, gold is down too. Testing 129 resistance right now. Really depends on how London will handle the close but if they pack it in around here, NY might stabilize, for the day & chances are GY's low might be in. But nothing more than a guess.
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  • #225,622
  • May 20, 2010 10:14am May 20, 2010 10:14am
Quoting Geppy
Thanks for the tip... even with my age I've been in this "game" longer than you and quite healthy.



and it was a great 20min!
Mate.. honest.. my last post here to YOU...

=====FIRST technicals======

I dont know for how long you are trading GBPJPY.. but go back on daily, and Tell me how many days.. Geepy moves more then 350p..?? just go, have a look,

and THINK..
Your call was a Gambling one.. I hope you'll have more Luck with your style..

==== SECOND: respect other traders.. ===========
few days with Queece, with me, with UKtrader.. and bunch of others.

Hay.. mate.. you are not Alone on this Planet !! (think)

==== THIRD: Your CALLS=======

im not going to go after your calls.. but MATE, you should consider some rest of the trading: As I remember your last 4 calls were catastrophic:

1. Remember your fight with Queece, - when we were selling, you were LONG..
2. When we bottomed, you start selling..
3. yesterday when we toped , you were calling 134..
ect..ect..

finaly, it is your call, your account.. Stay here, play Hedge Fund wannabie... But please

HAVE a RESPECT for OTHERS>..

===============================
P.S.. sorry for my spellings. and typos.. (that's my BEst "Oxford English" Level)

Cheers...

P
  • #225,623
  • May 20, 2010 10:17am May 20, 2010 10:17am
Quoting Geppy
Thanks for the tip... You're welcome. even with my age I've been in this "game" longer than you and quite healthy.
Erm, how would you know?
I was referring to your immaturity, not your trading years.


and it was a great 20min!
G/L
  • #225,624
  • May 20, 2010 10:29am May 20, 2010 10:29am
Incredible yen strength out there ... by default, and for a limited time IMHO, only because the (west) trading world knows or cares to know, so little about Japan. Hardly a flight to safety, but it is what it is.
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  • #225,625
  • May 20, 2010 10:33am May 20, 2010 10:33am
Quoting USD-Bear
Well 3B of call options in thin air, GU at a quadripple bottom on H1, lets see, I'm in.....
+100 pips SL 1.4250 and trailing now.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #225,626
  • May 20, 2010 10:45am May 20, 2010 10:45am
What a bunch of crap... All this does is keep market makers from showing what the intend to do upon the open. As soon as the market opens it will be clear as day and then you have a bunch of reactions. How meaningless is that?!

In pre-market hours, futures on U.S. stock indices showed high volatility, prompting New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) officials to invoke Rule 48 for the opening of the stock market.

Rule 48, intended to smooth the opening, suspends the requirement for designated market makers to show pre-opening indications. This rarely invoked rule may be enacted in the event of “extremely high market volatility,” according to the NYSE.

This marks the second instance this month that NYSE officials felt the need to change normal market mechanics in response to extreme market conditions.
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  • #225,627
  • May 20, 2010 10:49am May 20, 2010 10:49am
Does anyone have idea with this sharp retracement?
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #225,628
  • May 20, 2010 10:57am May 20, 2010 10:57am
Quoting USD-Bear
ukdaytrader,

how long to go before expiry?
Well I guess its over and out now, so lets visit 1.45 please.......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #225,629
  • May 20, 2010 11:05am May 20, 2010 11:05am
Quoting Kofmaster
Does anyone have idea with this sharp retracement?
It's the GY norm since that Thursday drop. Everything is exaggerated. If the down move was overshot by 150 pips, a 250 pip retrace is standard issue, and we'll revisit 100 pips lower from there. What used to be a 100 pip SL in GY/GU, should be over 200 pip, but if you're wrong, you're screwed, unless you've cut your lot size to half of what you usually did. I might get bashed, but, the manipulation is rife.
  • #225,630
  • May 20, 2010 11:14am May 20, 2010 11:14am
Quoting Beljevina
It's the GY norm since that Thursday drop. Everything is exaggerated. If the down move was overshot by 150 pips, a 250 pip retrace is standard issue, and we'll revisit 100 pips lower from there. What used to be a 100 pip SL in GY/GU, should be over 200 pip, but if you're wrong, you're screwed, unless you've cut your lot size to half of what you usually did. I might get bashed, but, the manipulation is rife.
The down move is accompanied by strong volume broke the support 129.68. There is nothing wrong with it and i expect more down move after this since the retracement(I hope is) is coming with declining volume on 15mins. The retracement back to 129.68 hit resistance and 15 mins I saw doji. May I know ur opinion?

EDIT: Just my humble and noob analysis on volume
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #225,631
  • May 20, 2010 11:16am May 20, 2010 11:16am
New range of consolidation: 126.72 to 129.30. 129.30 could be the new top. I think once consolidation completes, price will just keep on heading down towards 118 and lower. I will never think of long again. No long. No retracement. Follow the friendly trend. Any long should be just for quick scalps.
  • #225,632
  • May 20, 2010 11:23am May 20, 2010 11:23am
Quoting Kofmaster
The down move is accompanied by strong volume broke the support 129.68. There is nothing wrong with it and i expect more down move after this since the retracement(I hope is) is coming with declining volume on 15mins. The retracement back to 129.68 hit resistance and 15 mins I saw doji. May I know ur opinion?

EDIT: Just my humble and noob analysis on volume
Sorry I think I misread your original question ... though you were asking why the big retrace. I agree with your S/R numbers and we're on the same page; although we touched 126.75, 125.x still looms, only question is whether we get there today or do we revisit 130.3/131. Personally, I think we're going to retrace higher, and save more down moves for tomorrow. Fundamentally, once the UK gov't starts coming out with their sound bites & analysis, along with the fear factor of today's markets, I'd expect sub-120.
  • #225,633
  • May 20, 2010 11:24am May 20, 2010 11:24am
Check out my new sig.
  • #225,634
  • May 20, 2010 11:32am May 20, 2010 11:32am
Quoting Beljevina
Sorry I think I misread your original question ... though you were asking why the big retrace. I agree with your S/R numbers and we're on the same page; although we touched 126.75, 125.x still looms, only question is whether we get there today or do we revisit 130.3/131. Personally, I think we're going to retrace higher, and save more down moves for tomorrow. Fundamentally, once the UK gov't starts coming out with their sound bites & analysis, along with the fear factor of today's markets, I'd expect sub-120.
Good I love your target Lets see how this play out.
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #225,635
  • May 20, 2010 11:33am May 20, 2010 11:33am
Quoting Beljevina
Sorry I think I misread your original question ... though you were asking why the big retrace. I agree with your S/R numbers and we're on the same page; although we touched 126.75, 125.x still looms, only question is whether we get there today or do we revisit 130.3/131. Personally, I think we're going to retrace higher, and save more down moves for tomorrow. Fundamentally, once the UK gov't starts coming out with their sound bites & analysis, along with the fear factor of today's markets, I'd expect sub-120.
I posted a chart a few days ago with a fib extension with the 100% extension resting at about 126.25. I'm flat now, but would watch for one more push to that area. I'd consider taking small longs there for a retracement toward the upper part of that channel I had in the chart (sorry don't have access to it to post right now). She's still looking weak here and one more spike below our most recent low wouldn't be surprising to shake out some weak shorts before a healthy retrace begins.
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  • #225,636
  • May 20, 2010 11:33am May 20, 2010 11:33am
ny opened @ 129.74, london closed @ 129.17.

as long as ny session is active, opening level will act as resistance. don't expect a retrace unless 129.74 is broken, or after ny closes - 129.17 is cleared.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #225,637
  • May 20, 2010 11:39am May 20, 2010 11:39am
Quoting Scrat
ny opened @ 129.74, london closed @ 129.17.

as long as ny session is active, opening level will act as resistance. don't expect a retrace unless 129.74 is broken, or after ny closes - 129.17 is cleared.
Scrat, do you have an indicator that can plot these each day or do you note them by hand?
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  • #225,638
  • May 20, 2010 11:52am May 20, 2010 11:52am
i do, will post it here when i come back - couple of hours...

Quoting Geppy
Scrat, do you have an indicator that can plot these each day or do you note them by hand?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #225,639
  • May 20, 2010 11:56am May 20, 2010 11:56am
Quoting Scrat
i do, will post it here when i come back - couple of hours...
Thanks man, appreciate it!


On another note, this sure is reminiscent of 2008-2009 when just about everything was crashing. Gold, oil, equities, you name it.
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  • #225,640
  • May 20, 2010 12:16pm May 20, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting Geppy
Thanks man, appreciate it!


On another note, this sure is reminiscent of 2008-2009 when just about everything was crashing. Gold, oil, equities, you name it.
... but hopefully this is of informational/benefit to some, am not just looking to regurgitate info. The status of US equity markets is quite attrocious. Certainly not unexpected IMHO, and I think we're only getting going. 2008 was fear of what was going to happen, but now, we've come full circle, & are realizing what can happen, so the bottom's not yet in sight. In broken record mode, today's job data was not good, and, the last NFP (and previous) are cooked, with major portions of it estimated, thus made up. I posted yesterday 1 in 7 mortgages being in default territory in the USA - if that isn't a statement of how the average Joe is doing, I don't know what is; the average US family is $700,000 in (total) debt - enjoy this linky: http://www.usdebtclock.org/ This is not going to end well. I just don't get why gold, paladium, & silver are down - I guess people just don't want to own anything with any risk - have to read up on that.
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