Silent Service Method | Page 437 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Silent room 2 replies

Silent Success of Patience 10 replies

My silent journal 4 replies

bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies

Seeing Through the Silent Crash 4 replies

Attachments: Silent Service Method
Exit Attachments

Silent Service Method

  • #8,721
  • May 19, 2010 8:58am May 19, 2010 8:58am
Quoting clockwork71
Question of the day:

Is the AUD the new EUR? Australia has the misfortune of exporting raw materials to a world that simply can't get things going. take a look at this chart:
I think to some extent -yes. But I also think they will not see serious trouble until China pops. JMHO and I am often wrong. lol
  • #8,722
  • May 19, 2010 9:07am May 19, 2010 9:07am
Chris,

NZD short is finally starting to show signs of life (or is it signs of death...). Have you moved your stops to B/E yet? -200+pips in one day is a pretty decent move. I haven't been a long-suffering kiwi shorter like the rest of you, but the move did catch my attention and I do have a small short that was initiated a few days ago. Would love to hear your thoughts.

Cheers,
InfinitySL
  • #8,723
  • May 19, 2010 9:33am May 19, 2010 9:33am
Quoting InfinitySL
Chris,

NZD short is finally starting to show signs of life (or is it signs of death...). Have you moved your stops to B/E yet? -200+pips in one day is a pretty decent move. I haven't been a long-suffering kiwi shorter like the rest of you, but the move did catch my attention and I do have a small short that was initiated a few days ago. Would love to hear your thoughts.

Cheers,
InfinitySL
I'm being stubborn until I see .60!
  • #8,724
  • May 19, 2010 9:34am May 19, 2010 9:34am
Looks like the Swiss may have got involved.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.png Size: 32 KB
  • #8,725
  • May 19, 2010 9:46am May 19, 2010 9:46am
Quoting clockwork71
Looks like the Swiss may have got involved.

I got a healthy chunk of that last intervention. Excuse me while I vomit.
  • #8,726
  • May 19, 2010 10:07am May 19, 2010 10:07am
Quoting clockwork71
I'm being stubborn until I see .60!
You're a good man -- I (sadly) don't have that much patience. When I saw the gift horse, I did not look it in the mouth... I took my 240pips and banked them -- Sold at 0.6935 and bought back at 0.6691. Best of luck, certainly looks like there's alot of this short XXX/USD trade to go around out there...
  • #8,727
  • May 19, 2010 11:04am May 19, 2010 11:04am
I was just looking at my charts and noticed that the EURO is right at it's all-time high/low 50% retracement level.

I am not saying I am going long on this, but just an observation. The bulls will for sure put up a fight. But is it a losing fight?

Cheers, Kulu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro-Monthly.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro-weekly.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro-daily.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #8,728
  • May 19, 2010 12:12pm May 19, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting kulu
I was just looking at my charts and noticed that the EURO is right at it's all-time high/low 50% retracement level.


Cheers, Kulu
A very interesting observation, and a reminder to look at the BIG PICTURE.

Today has seen a strong bounce off of 1.2200.
  • #8,729
  • May 19, 2010 12:39pm May 19, 2010 12:39pm
My AUDCAD hit it's TP at 0.8800 and closed for +354. Although each trade will be different, and I am going to try to let winners run, I think this TP was justified.

Take a look at the attached chart and notice how significant the 0.8800 level is. By looking at the reactions in the blue ovals, I believe that if the price does break below 0.8800 that we will get a retrace and test that will allow me to reenter short. So on this trade I don't think I am risking missing out on too many pips even if the price breaks the support.

We'll see what happens.

Any comments?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad w.png Size: 62 KB
  • #8,730
  • May 19, 2010 12:39pm May 19, 2010 12:39pm
Quoting kulu
I was just looking at my charts and noticed that the EURO is right at it's all-time high/low 50% retracement level.

I am not saying I am going long on this, but just an observation. The bulls will for sure put up a fight. But is it a losing fight?

Cheers, Kulu

Kulu,

You need to add to the shorts, help us bust through.
  • #8,731
  • May 19, 2010 4:47pm May 19, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting clockwork71
Kulu,

You need to add to the shorts, help us bust through.
Will do

Kulu
  • #8,732
  • May 19, 2010 5:32pm May 19, 2010 5:32pm
Quoting jharvey407
My AUDCAD hit it's TP at 0.8800 and closed for +354. Although each trade will be different, and I am going to try to let winners run, I think this TP was justified.

Take a look at the attached chart and notice how significant the 0.8800 level is. By looking at the reactions in the blue ovals, I believe that if the price does break below 0.8800 that we will get a retrace and test that will allow me to reenter short. So on this trade I don't think I am risking missing out on too many pips even if the price breaks the support.

We'll see what happens....
I agree with your thoughts actually. I know that someone in the group got in on this trade too.....NoBrakes maybe? I missed it, but certainly think it is a good chart, and I like the TP here. This pair gets a bit messy at times too......so why not?

Chris
  • #8,733
  • May 19, 2010 6:51pm May 19, 2010 6:51pm
Ok KULU -

Short 1 Billion please? lol

EUR USD 4 hour
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro4hour.png Size: 35 KB
  • #8,734
  • May 19, 2010 7:16pm May 19, 2010 7:16pm
Quoting clockwork71
Ok KULU -

Short 1 Billion please? lol

EUR USD 4 hour
I just added to my short .00000000001 billion.
  • #8,735
  • May 19, 2010 8:17pm May 19, 2010 8:17pm
Quoting clockwork71
Ok KULU -

Short 1 Billion please? lol

EUR USD 4 hour
Ok, Chris, done. I will add some more during the london open and push it down. Is that enough for now? It's not a big move, but at least it's something.

Will do this again at 3 AM EST.

Kulu
  • #8,736
  • May 19, 2010 8:18pm May 19, 2010 8:18pm
I'll play Devils advocate on the Euro -- Sorry, just love being a rabble rouser (and looking foolish when this thing gets to parity with the USD...)

Here are a few charts. First off the Weekly where I've added the 50% Fibo (of the entire Euro History...)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-05-19_EUR_Weekly.png Size: 65 KB


Now, a close up on the daily (using FxPro's feed):

Attached Image


So those are the technical reasons I'm not as bearish on the Euro... Now here's a stab at the fundamentals...

I'm not saying it's a screaming long, but consider this....

 

  1. The Euro has now lost almost over 18% of it's value versus the dollar (from its level in Dec 2009)
  2. $1 USD used to cost 66-euro cents... now it costs 80cents -- It's a ton more expensive to travel to the US if you're European, meanwhile European goods, services, assets, and everything else looks a lot cheaper to the outside world. If you're China and looking to diversify your reserves, why not buy European land, goods, etc now that your currency buys so much more? If you're going on vacation why go the US, why not head to France, Spain, or Greece? (well, you may not want to deal with the riots in Greece, but you get my point...)
  3. The world has a vested interest in seeing the EU succeed and it will continue to get support.
  4. Everyone (and their brother & mother-in-law) is short the Euro. Anyone who got on this train early is sitting on massive paper-profits. When everyone is already in a trade, there aren't as many marginal people to push the trade in one direction.


So I'm not long...yet, but I can see the day coming when I'll go long, with a pretty good risk reward if we break north on that 2-day pinbar which we obviously haven't yet.

So anyway, there it is -- I know I'm in the minority on this one, but that's the other side of the argument...

Oh and since I'm not in the trade, I'll root for you guys to make money

  • #8,737
  • May 19, 2010 8:54pm May 19, 2010 8:54pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I'll play Devils advocate on the Euro -- Sorry, just love being a rabble rouser (and looking foolish when this thing gets to parity with the USD...)

Here are a few charts....
Good points. But I am short on this pair for ages. In fact, if we get a bounce....and we are due....I am looking for shorts at 1.25 and several other levels.

Chris
  • #8,738
  • May 19, 2010 8:56pm May 19, 2010 8:56pm
Quoting kulu
Ok, Chris, done. I will add some more during the london open and push it down. Is that enough for now? It's not a big move, but at least it's something.

Will do this again at 3 AM EST.

Kulu

Cool. I know how hard it is to do billions at a time, gotta "phase in". ;-)
  • #8,739
  • May 19, 2010 10:36pm May 19, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting clockwork71
I agree with your thoughts actually. I know that someone in the group got in on this trade too.....NoBrakes maybe? I missed it, but certainly think it is a good chart, and I like the TP here. This pair gets a bit messy at times too......so why not?

Chris
Just starting to read through this thread, very interesting stuff but the pages are adding up very quickly which in itself is a good sign. Anyway would you recommend taking 2/3 of the profit at the level JH407 did and move SL on the other 1/3 just above his last Support turn Resistance ?
  • #8,740
  • May 19, 2010 11:12pm May 19, 2010 11:12pm
Quoting jacanpipster
Just starting to read through this thread, very interesting stuff but the pages are adding up very quickly which in itself is a good sign. Anyway would you recommend taking 2/3 of the profit at the level JH407 did and move SL on the other 1/3 just above his last Support turn Resistance ?
To be honest, I normally don't split up trades like that......I normally am either all in or all out. (unless I have a core position on)

I do see how that idea would be helpful though.....

But for me, I never take partial losses, so I don't take partial victories either.
10 traders viewing now