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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #225,321
  • May 19, 2010 8:36am May 19, 2010 8:36am
i have one small short. i belive his analizes are accurate. at one stage i had an argument with him that price is hitting rock bottom and i was wrong. i have to admit that. he is rare kind of trader that he can see Pa movment that i could not
  • #225,322
  • May 19, 2010 8:38am May 19, 2010 8:38am
Stop right there! I am not giving advice, a recommendation or anything remotely similar. It's my view/analysis and that is all. Do not trade based on what I say. That is incredibly foolish and a fool and his money are soon parted.

Quoting $teve
If I shorted, it was my own analysis. Are you following his advice now and still shorting?
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #225,323
  • May 19, 2010 8:43am May 19, 2010 8:43am
Quoting Geppy
I trade with probabilities which doesn't include trading against a trend. Price "could do" just about anything I could imagine to type here in this forum... doesn't mean it will. So far there's no daily, weekly or monthly confirmation that would warrant a long bias. Why would I want to attempt to catch a falling knife? No sir, I'd rather hold my shorts and add to them as we drop. I'll only let go when price action tells me it's time.
This price action looks bullish to me. Maybe not to you but I see a lot of buyers. If you are a longterm trader and using massive stops then you don't have much to worry about because price could hit 134.60 and come back down to 129.70 again. I'm just telling what I see on short time frame that a move to 134.60 is possible. So obviously shorting in the 131's or 132's isn't a good idea.
  • #225,324
  • May 19, 2010 8:48am May 19, 2010 8:48am
Quoting $teve
This price action looks bullish to me. Maybe not to you but I see a lot of buyers. If you are a longterm trader and using massive stops then you don't have much to worry about because price could hit 134.60 and come back down to 129.70 again. I'm just telling what I see on short time frame that a move to 134.60 is possible. So obviously shorting in the 131's or 132's isn't a good idea.
Again, anything is "possible". And I'm curious... how do you "see a lot of buyers"? For every buyer there's a seller so I guess I see a lot of seller.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #225,325
  • May 19, 2010 8:49am May 19, 2010 8:49am
Quoting Geppy
Again, anything is "possible". And I'm curious... how do you "see a lot of buyers"? For every buyer there's a seller so I guess I see a lot of seller.
Time will tell, then we will see seller or buyer a lot? Btw , i'm seller
Today FOCM will going for a huge pips. Care
  • #225,326
  • May 19, 2010 8:52am May 19, 2010 8:52am
Quoting Geppy
I trade with probabilities
Everyone should read this. The outcome of ANY given trade (yes even yours) has an unknown outcome. Probabilities are increased when you have a solid trading method, or as stated you only trade with the trend. I see many people saying that this WILL happen, and this WILL happen. Unless you were the SNB this morning, you can't say that anything will happen with a 100% degree of certainty.
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
  • #225,327
  • May 19, 2010 8:54am May 19, 2010 8:54am
Quoting Geppy
Again, anything is "possible". And I'm curious... how do you "see a lot of buyers"? For every buyer there's a seller so I guess I see a lot of seller.
It has more to do with price hitting support at 129.70 first. Then candles closing with long body and small wicks. As I'm typing, 132.05 could be a good area to short. This is the 23.6 fib. I need to focus on watching the PA and less typing.
  • #225,328
  • May 19, 2010 9:00am May 19, 2010 9:00am
Sorry to keep quoting forexlive.com, but this is important.

http://www.forexlive.com/107639/all/just-checking

ECB and FED 'checking rates'

Often a pre-cursor to intervention.
  • #225,329
  • May 19, 2010 9:09am May 19, 2010 9:09am
Raza, I hope you got some of that. I was long 2 days ago and settled for 200pips leaving almost 500 on the table. Man ya gotta love squeezes.
Without a trade plan, say bye bye to your account & hello to frustration.
  • #225,330
  • May 19, 2010 9:18am May 19, 2010 9:18am
Quoting PipinStein
Raza, I hope you got some of that. I was long 2 days ago and settled for 200pips leaving almost 500 on the table. Man ya gotta love squeezes.
lol, look at E/N. Even bigger squeeze there.
  • #225,331
  • May 19, 2010 9:22am May 19, 2010 9:22am
Finally someone gets what I say!

P.S. Not bad PA here huh $teve?

Quoting profxtrader
Everyone should read this. The outcome of ANY given trade (yes even yours) has an unknown outcome. Probabilities are increased when you have a solid trading method, or as stated you only trade with the trend. I see many people saying that this WILL happen, and this WILL happen. Unless you were the SNB this morning, you can't say that anything will happen with a 100% degree of certainty.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #225,332
  • May 19, 2010 9:23am May 19, 2010 9:23am
Thank you Geepy great call
  • #225,333
  • May 19, 2010 9:23am May 19, 2010 9:23am
When push comes to shove, you just know that this will be one of the next "europe" scenarios. Especially if you believe in the demise of the greenback, this is only a matter of time until activated, probably sooner rather than later.

IMF urges Japan to begin reducing debt next yearTOKYO : Wednesday, 19 May 2010 18:02

TOKYO -The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday urged Japan to begin efforts to reduce its public debt from April 2011, amid growing scrutiny over the country's fiscal picture.

"The need for early and credible fiscal adjustment has become critical in Japan," IMF senior adviser James Gordon said, adding that any measures should involve a gradual increase in consumption tax.

"We think fiscal adjustment should start in fiscal year 2011," Gordon said.

He made the remarks after an IMF team, including first deputy Managing-Director John Lipsky, held talks with senior officials from Japan's government, the Bank of Japan and private sector representatives in Tokyo.

After decades of heavy stimulus spending and declining tax revenues, Japan has a public debt mountain bigger than any other industrialised nation, expected to hit 200 percent of gross domestic product in the next year.

Japan's huge public debt is a legacy of massive stimulus spending during the economic "lost decade" of the 1990s, as well as a series of pump-priming packages to tackle a recession that began in 2008.

  • #225,334
  • May 19, 2010 9:27am May 19, 2010 9:27am
Quoting Piters
LOL.. when Elephants playing in BOND Garden..

better to sit back and watch...

many UK Bond players are pissed...

and Pray Merkel to leave EUR to float.. She may take the Chinese recipe and link EUR to USD on 1:1.2

And then, we definitely start trading PORK BELLY FUTURES

http://www.infinitytrading.com/pork_...s_options.html
lol.. Elephants moving the market like YO-YO... 100-200p ..

sweet
  • #225,335
  • May 19, 2010 9:28am May 19, 2010 9:28am
Meh... I'm just a crazy, no-nothing n00b

Quoting bonus76
Thank you Geepy great call
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #225,336
  • May 19, 2010 9:29am May 19, 2010 9:29am
ok who farted?
  • #225,337
  • May 19, 2010 9:31am May 19, 2010 9:31am
I know this is EU news but think of the implications on other currencies. Mmm...this may be serious or hot air.


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Federal Reserve Wednesday declined to comment on speculation that the European Central Bank and other major central banks are preparing to intervene in the foreign-exchange markets to prop up the flagging euro.

The ECB also declined to comment earlier Wednesday. The market speculation comes as traders are circulating a report from a U.S. think tank that is said to note that the Group of Seven leading industrial nations are concerned about the speed of the euro's decline against the U.S. dollar.

The report is also said to note that major central banks may be preparing a verbal intervention to support the currency "if the rout continues."

The euro rebounded from four-year lows against the dollar Wednesday on the market speculation. At 10:15 a.m. EDT, it was trading at $1.2320 compared with $1.2144 earlier Wednesday.


-By Luca Di Leo, Dow Jones Newswires; 202 862 6682; [email protected]
  • #225,338
  • May 19, 2010 9:43am May 19, 2010 9:43am
Quoting Piters
lol.. Elephants moving the market like YO-YO... 100-200p ..

sweet
very sweet...

major down trend with bull div on 240 and 60.

:nerd:
  • #225,339
  • May 19, 2010 9:52am May 19, 2010 9:52am
Just checked my charts and there's a (downtrend) regular divergence on the H1 chart. I should have spotted that a few hours ago!

Drat!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY 19 April 2010 H1.jpg Size: 112 KB
  • #225,340
  • May 19, 2010 9:58am May 19, 2010 9:58am
Quoting Jake Snake
Just checked my charts and there's a (downtrend) regular divergence on the H1 chart. I should have spotted that a few hours ago!

Drat!
Bullish divergence? I've never heard of a downtrend regular divergence. At any rate, it may play out for a few pips, but ultimately it's a risky proposition because the trend is down overall.
Every time you use 'hopium' in a post, God kills a kitten.
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