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Silent Service Method

  • #8,701
  • May 18, 2010 7:15pm May 18, 2010 7:15pm
EUR weak for sure clockwork. I made a entry on this based on my 4 hour time frame at 1.2314 shooting for 1.18 So many people were in doubt.
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  • #8,702
  • May 18, 2010 8:06pm May 18, 2010 8:06pm
Quoting clockwork71
Damn fine trading. This is great trading - no stress at all.
Yeah, except that it went another + 220 today!! ha!

At least I had a justified exit strategy. I have to remind myself that every trade will be different, I that I am never going to hit the top pip and bottom pip of a move.

A trade of + 146 is just fine. Especially since my other 3 trades are currently + 1180.

Now I just need to work out exit strategies. I am going to place a TP at 0.8800 for the AUDCAD.

I'm not sure how to treat the others. I think I will choose justifiable TP's at major SR.
  • #8,703
  • May 18, 2010 8:20pm May 18, 2010 8:20pm
I just wanted to throw this out there for people to consider.

I have done an enormous amount of research and testing on the use of moving averages as support and resistance. I believe they are used by most of the program traders because they are very easy to write into a automated trading program as opposed to the SR lines that we draw ourselves. (I am an IT and programmer by trade.) In fact I have written profitable strategies based on my EMA research. I was just never patient enough to use them.

This is a chart of the flag that Chris pointed out earlier.

The two moving averages on the chart are the 55 ema and the 21 ema. They are pertinent on every time frame. I believe that they are a type of self fulfilling prophecy, much like the 50% retracement because they are easy to program, and the 'Big Boys' use them.
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  • #8,704
  • May 18, 2010 8:28pm May 18, 2010 8:28pm
I think that ma's only work in a trending market. Any range market and your going to be hurting. My Moving averages on my charts are so I can see longer term trend in my 4 hour charts and kind of gauge the momentum. Its more of a brain pleaser for my head.
  • #8,705
  • May 18, 2010 8:48pm May 18, 2010 8:48pm
Naddix,

Unless I'm confused, when you put MA's on your chart, it calculates according to the timeframe you're viewing, so if you switch from the daily to the 4H, you get a completely different read. Right?
  • #8,706
  • May 18, 2010 9:00pm May 18, 2010 9:00pm
http://i45.tinypic.com/orqqf5.png

http://i46.tinypic.com/2dvim1f.png

My position size is this big....

http://i47.tinypic.com/rlvwub.jpg
  • #8,707
  • May 18, 2010 9:22pm May 18, 2010 9:22pm
Quoting Low
Naddix,

Unless I'm confused, when you put MA's on your chart, it calculates according to the timeframe you're viewing, so if you switch from the daily to the 4H, you get a completely different read. Right?

This is true. However, a lot of traders will do things like put a 60 and 120 EMA on a 4hr....(10 and 20 day) as an example. So all you need do is up the numbers......
  • #8,708
  • May 18, 2010 9:25pm May 18, 2010 9:25pm
Quoting jharvey407
I just wanted to throw this out there for people to consider.

I have done an enormous amount of research and testing on the use of moving averages as support and resistance. I believe they are used by most of the program traders because they are very easy to write into a automated trading program as opposed to the SR lines that we draw ourselves. (I am an IT and programmer by trade.) In fact I have written profitable strategies based on my EMA research. I was just never patient enough to use them.

This is a chart of the flag that Chris pointed...
I agree. I personally can't stand EMAs in and of themselves, but I know a lot of traders use the 200 day as an example. (stocks mainly) So yes - it is a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts. Just like the "50% fib level", which of course, isn't a Fibonacci number at all.
  • #8,709
  • May 18, 2010 9:27pm May 18, 2010 9:27pm
Quoting jharvey407
Yeah, except that it went another + 220 today!! ha!

At least I had a justified exit strategy. I have to remind myself that every trade will be different, I that I am never going to hit the top pip and bottom pip of a move.

A trade of + 146 is just fine. Especially since my other 3 trades are currently + 1180.

Now I just need to work out exit strategies. I am going to place a TP at 0.8800 for the AUDCAD.

I'm not sure how to treat the others. I think I will choose justifiable TP's at major SR.
True, but as a pointer:

If you got out of that trade.....like I did. (inverse.....EUR/USD) You can reenter later - I did based on a break of that daily pinbar. I am at b/e already only because when this things finally does bounce, it will bounce hard.

Choosing justifiable TP based on S/R is a damn fine idea.

Damn good trading. 1180 pips! Damn fine.
  • #8,710
  • May 18, 2010 9:28pm May 18, 2010 9:28pm
Quoting naddix
I think that ma's only work in a trending market.
I am going to elaborate on this statement a bit and use this as an opportunity to explain what I was really trying to say.

Ma's don't 'work'. They are an indicator, they only 'indicate'.

The full expression of your statement would be, "I think that strategies based on MA's only work in a trending market."

I make this point simply because I was not trying to put forward a trading strategy based on MA's, but simply pointing out that certain MA's actually provide a very clear indication of support and resistance. Based on my research the 21 EMA and the 55 EMA provide a level of SR that is as equally reliable as any SR level, be it a straight horizontal SR line or a trend line.

I also agree with you that they provide a very good indication of momentum and trend.

The MACD is based on moving averages. It seems to be one of the most used tools in trading. The Chaos Trading system taught by Bill Williams is based on moving averages and it has many successful followers.

The MA is simply another tool that the trader can add to his well picked arsenal of TA tools.
  • #8,711
  • May 18, 2010 9:28pm May 18, 2010 9:28pm
Quoting naddix
EUR weak for sure clockwork. I made a entry on this based on my 4 hour time frame at 1.2314 shooting for 1.18 So many people were in doubt.
I really do think we will see 1.18 sooner or later. After that - it gets really interesting......
  • #8,712
  • May 18, 2010 9:31pm May 18, 2010 9:31pm
Quoting samer960
agreed !
well said Chris
see u at 1.18 that might not be long from now !
At this rate - it might be tomorrow morning.

Did you buy your first Bentley yet?

I am attaching a picture of Samer's new car below:
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  • #8,713
  • May 18, 2010 10:50pm May 18, 2010 10:50pm
LOL , chris this one , u know the matriculation number 115 worth at least 3 to 4 million USD , its more expensive than the car itself by far !!!!!


Quoting clockwork71
At this rate - it might be tomorrow morning.

Did you buy your first Bentley yet?

I am attaching a picture of Samer's new car below:
  • #8,714
  • May 18, 2010 11:48pm May 18, 2010 11:48pm
ouch.
  • #8,715
  • May 19, 2010 1:17am May 19, 2010 1:17am
There's a bloke called Hector on youtube who uses a 30, 50 and 100 sma to find nice steady trends and trades into those. I've not bought his course but know someone who did and they say it's really good but you can't beat the old silent service method for me and I'm making money in spades so if it's not broke...
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,716
  • May 19, 2010 1:36am May 19, 2010 1:36am
Quoting Low
Naddix,

Unless I'm confused, when you put MA's on your chart, it calculates according to the timeframe you're viewing, so if you switch from the daily to the 4H, you get a completely different read. Right?

Well, it’s a calculation of the closed price. The higher the number the more time is used showing a bigger picture. At least this is how I use it.


Thanks clockwork for explaining the ma's, I had to run to work.

jharvey407, Very well put. I agree very much on the 50 and 200 as they are used all over. Just another tool in the box.

I don't use any indicators as a predictor, just a little tool to help explain the past. So when you see ma’s on my charts they are only for telling me where price came from and how hard it was moving. Same for a macd, I use my S/R lines to tell me when I should be focusing on a pair, and my price action to enter trades!
  • #8,717
  • May 19, 2010 4:05am May 19, 2010 4:05am
what are you guys thinking about eur/aud?
perfect sell forming there.
  • #8,718
  • May 19, 2010 6:36am May 19, 2010 6:36am
Quoting tobias24
what are you guys thinking about eur/aud?
perfect sell forming there.
I looked at it.....there's a huge bullish bar there now - wouldn't touch it myself.
  • #8,719
  • May 19, 2010 8:19am May 19, 2010 8:19am
yea i am waiting till it forms a high und turns round.
  • #8,720
  • May 19, 2010 8:56am May 19, 2010 8:56am
Question of the day:

Is the AUD the new EUR? Australia has the misfortune of exporting raw materials to a world that simply can't get things going. take a look at this chart:
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