Dan's Self-Honesty Journal

I'm first going to run-down my futures analysis, where I'm looking for PA this week.

Arrow UP = looking for bullish PA
Arrow DOWN = looking for bearish PA

natural gas: price is making it's first time back to 150 EMA, should price make it to this level, I will look for a rejection off the 150 and take it short.

silver: 50% retracement sits at 18.50. i will look for some good PA there on 4hr to catch it long.

gold: 50% retracements at 1217 first, then another 50% retracement at 1203. Looking for support PA in both those areas, should price reach them. If price just keeps going up over top of the old all time high, i will buy into that move. Gold is poised very well right now for a bull run in my honest opinion.

Corn: Looks like this upper consolidation box is ready to break into the lower one, we'll see.

Soybean: Looks like a trendline breakout. i won't be looking to sell the break until price his the blue box, which is placed below the other bar lows just to the left of current price. I may approach this one with two seperate trades, one to catch the initial break, the other to play the retracement.

Crude: crude is approaching the VBRN of 70.00. Should be an interesting watch. I don't know how I will play it until I can see some sort of PA, or a break, something like that. until then I'll just know it's an important level.

IF EUR/USD opens with a big gap down, i think it would be wise to look at where last week closed up (1.2360) for a place to short. I see this happen at times where immediatly after the gap closes, price will take off in the opposite direction. This would be with the trend too. have to wait and see.

hi dan,

i am following your journey very closely. i am seeing several pin bars today on daily. some of them have very poor RR, i am still looking to pick atleast 1 good setup with a decent RR (1:1)

I'm not even going to trade ONE of them...

I don't like the way they are heading straight into a bunch of problem areas, and very big round numbers.

If someone put a gun to my head and told me I had to take one, I would go with USDCAD, because the 150 EMA confluences with it nicely, and you won't be going counter-trend with USDCAD either.

but! with the way the markets are behaving right now, Europe troubles having a negative effect on all the markets, there will be a large flight back to the USD while people are bailing out of stocks.

Also, if the dow, s&p continue to dive this hard, the evacuation out of the commodity currencies will be fairly strong.

The way i see it, There is a lot more opportunity in gold right now than anything else. You don't need to trade a pin simply because it's there, My two futures trades that I took this week are both just slightly into profit, and I'm cool with that. I'm also hawking gold for a good long entry opportunity at the moment. These pins just aren't giving me that warm feeling inside

also, I'm short GBPUSD for 1% risk right now, and that trade is being a real son of a gun lol

EDIT: attached.... should explain it all...

here is my 2 demo futures trades (breakouts)

what is looking like on Soybeans is exactly what I expected. Price will come up to that trendline and hopefully reject, my initial break risk is 1%, I will add another 1% onto it if it does give me good PA there off that trendline as resistance. Stay tuned.

I think possibly gold has found it's support, we'll see!

demo

killed it manually at 1211.65.

no momentum, should have bought after it broke through the old support, which did in fact turn to resistance.

0.5% loss

......

I hate it when the market does that...
And I hate myself even more.

I hope you're better than me at managing this kind of misses

Got my stop to B/E.

This came within just a few pips of my S/L.... let's see if it gets to my target

Don't hate yourself, ultimately, depending on how the daily bar closes, I could still have a chance to get in!

There's always more opportunities, don't get beat up over some weak missed trade.

it's not everday you see the absolute most gorgeously flawless setups like this one:

crude, BEOB as a continuation pattern straddling 70.00. FTA: 67.23

edit: wrong contract, I'm updated now

there is so damn much opportunity scattered accross every damn thing you can possibly trade right now.... I'm in paralysis

NZDJPY, alpari feed, double bar high, not quite a lower close, if you wait for IBFX I don't doubt it will be a DBL bar high, lower close coming off the break+retracement of the 65.00 round number.

natural gas, first time back to 150 EMA, bearish pin printed (not the best condition bearish pin, but I'm taking it, all day, every day)

this is confluenced with the 4.60 PPZ which goes as far back as september 2006

another edit: actually as far back as august 2003 lmao

I'm going to pass on NZDJPY, and take EURJPY for 2% risk, that bar is really big, and I'm not afraid to pre-place my S/L where you see it here.

100 pips to B/E

T/P: 110.00

live account^^^


also I'm taking the Nat Gas pin too, it's 100% A+ with extra credit

and of course the gold pin, taking that.

trades I've been in this week are doing well. Looks like soybeans is closing in on it's profit target, also corn is going a bit slower, but the I4B that has formed is a good indication that it too, may hit it's target within the next few days.

GBPUSD trade is creeping up on it's target as well....


EDIT: forgot to set buffer on T/P for EJ, TP is actually 110.15 now