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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #225,041
  • May 18, 2010 11:34am May 18, 2010 11:34am
DDP is strong but not unbreakable. I think price might pull back to make another lower high at about 134.20. Then consolidate inside the wedge in Asia. Attempt to break lower again in London. I've seen this type of price action before.
  • #225,042
  • May 18, 2010 11:34am May 18, 2010 11:34am


Quoting Geppy
Pretty much exactly how I'm seeing it. Right now I'm favoring some upside and as you said a break of mid-term channel is too far for me to think about right now too, but I understand it as a possibility... just not going to stick my neck out on thinking it will materialize (not yet anyhow).
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #225,043
  • May 18, 2010 11:35am May 18, 2010 11:35am
Quoting Scrat
no bulls. just taking some profits for now. bulls would have pushed this up very quickly.
After lunch we should see some movement. . . They typically inch it it up slowly into the close. . .
  • #225,044
  • May 18, 2010 11:38am May 18, 2010 11:38am
4h chart tells me if we manage to get below 133.10 and close there, we may see a fast downward move.
  • #225,045
  • May 18, 2010 11:42am May 18, 2010 11:42am
not sure
Attached Image
  • #225,046
  • May 18, 2010 11:48am May 18, 2010 11:48am
Quoting glopfel
4h chart tells me if we manage to get below 133.10 and close there, we may see a fast downward move.
looking at the glass half empty - I share your view as it seems 1hr and 4hr are calling for a pressured move lower. . . Only lower TF's like 15min and 30 min looks to be calling for this slight move higher. . .

the top of the triangle created is at 134/134.30 - watching to see what happens if/when we get there - a rejection there would validate your theory that a downside move would be forthcoming before we see higher price if at all.

Need a 15 min close above 134 and a break-out of that triangle at 134.30 to confirm further up from a LTF standpoint. . .

Watching PA from that standpoint as well. . .
  • #225,047
  • May 18, 2010 11:59am May 18, 2010 11:59am
Quoting quecee5
Here is an observation one must consider IMO. . .

Looking at the swing hi/lo from the last wave 140.55 - 131.07 if yu plot a 200 SMA on the chart price has not traded above it on the 1hr chart since May 5th 2010 and has respected it every since. . .

If you look at where the 200 SMA is calling for price on avg and on this retracement (if we don't crash thru 133 with a close below dpp) one can see clearly that 136.50 - 136.95 on a spike could be max retrace up and would line up with the 4th wave up completion for preparing for a 5th wave...

yip i do see that clearly... but technical if we conslidate in a daily triangle,,it go most of the times to the 78.6 or what you have the 23.4 .. and we can easily spike through your weekly moving avergae and close again below it on weekly chart.... im myself dont think ill wait for 138.50,but i do have that in mind and will most probably short round about 136 level ..but stop above 138.50..and if we decide to spike it up,,nothing wrong to add on it ...

ps.. there is no confirmation so far that its even in a triangle ,,you might be right,,we have only so far 2 lower lows at 78.6 ,,so far its only speculation/imagination ,and one of the scenario's ..

and if i look at the daily candles, i do see MAX 137.40 ,i cant see 138.50,but 78.6 is on that level ..

we might not even see 136 by all ,,but its good to have the views on all scenario's
  • #225,048
  • May 18, 2010 12:01pm May 18, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting quecee5
Here is an observation one must consider IMO. . .

Looking at the swing hi/lo from the last wave 140.55 - 131.07 if yu plot a 200 SMA on the chart price has not traded above it on the 1hr chart since May 5th 2010 and has respected it every since. . .

If you look at where the 200 SMA is calling for price on avg and on this retracement (if we don't crash thru 133 with a close below dpp) one can see clearly that 136.50 - 136.95 on a spike could be max retrace up and would line up with the 4th wave up completion for preparing for a 5th wave...

Well said.... I could not agree anymore...
Traderdesk -
  • #225,049
  • May 18, 2010 12:06pm May 18, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting fullhouse
yip i do see that clearly... but technical if we conslidate in a daily triangle,,it go most of the times to the 78.6 or what you have the 23.4 .. and we can easily spike through your weekly moving avergae and close again below it on weekly chart.... im myself dont think ill wait for 138.50,but i do have that in mind and will most probably short round about 136 level ..but stop above 138.50..and if we decide to spike it up,,nothing wrong to add on it ...

ps.. there is no confirmation so far that its even in a triangle ,,you might be right,,we...
Okay I see that. . . The only thing that concerns me about you 138.50 level is the weekly bearishness that has already been activated. Now I can see a ABC correction happening with 50%/62% retrace from the swing hi/lo based on the wave structure being 1,2,3, 4 in the making with a retrace and 5 being the down move to 127/125. . .

Typically you will see a move to 78,6 on in wave 2 after the initial drop to create eithe wave 1 or wave A but haven't really seen a full retace from the swing hi/lo after we have made 3 clear wave lower - typically when that happend we see a reversal with the hi from the swin taken out. . .

just my thoughts. . .
  • #225,050
  • Edited 12:36pm May 18, 2010 12:07pm | Edited 12:36pm
Quoting Scrat
and even more below... true, but not in the very near future. it is currently correcting so we'll have to wait.
Bro, Germany To BAN Short Selling At Midnight..

on Stocks and Bonds..


BERLIN, May 18 (Reuters) - Germany plans to ban naked short-selling on stocks and euro government bonds, German all-news network N-TV reported on Tuesday.
German coalition sources told Reuters earlier that Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble plans to ban short-selling from midnight.
Economy Minister Rainer Bruederele told Reuters that it was possible the short-selling ban would be quickly enacted.
No other details were immediately available.


watch EURO below or around 1.2


  • #225,051
  • May 18, 2010 12:10pm May 18, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting Piters
Bro, Germany To BAN Short Selling At Midnight..

on Stocks and Bonds..

watch EURO below or around 1.2


What the hell? Ban short selling?
How can they do that?
  • #225,052
  • May 18, 2010 12:11pm May 18, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting quecee5
What the hell? Ban short selling?
How can they do that?
That's HUGE bro.. expect some Elephants on the market..
  • #225,053
  • May 18, 2010 12:13pm May 18, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting Piters
Bro, Germany To BAN Short Selling At Midnight..

on Stocks and Bonds..

watch EURO below or around 1.2


and at 1.2140 it would be half way between the weakest point (0.8228 ockt 2000 and its highest (1.6040 july 2008)

therefore talk of crisis and death are premature
  • #225,054
  • May 18, 2010 12:13pm May 18, 2010 12:13pm
Short-sale bans on shares have been used as temporary measures in the wake of the Lehman collapse but this is the first ban on the sale of government bonds. It is a big negative from a macro perspective for reserve managers who want big, deep, free capital markets in the markets in which they invest. IF this is more than a temporary measure, if could be a major euro negative.
  • #225,055
  • May 18, 2010 12:18pm May 18, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting quecee5
What the hell? Ban short selling?
How can they do that?
OMG triangle break. Not sure 133 can hold or not now. zzz
  • #225,056
  • May 18, 2010 12:18pm May 18, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting quecee5
It's the standard fib retracement. . . You can go in a put in the ext. but it's contained in this template so should be good to go. . .
Thank you Q.
  • #225,057
  • May 18, 2010 12:19pm May 18, 2010 12:19pm
right. right...

Quoting Piters
That's HUGE bro.. expect some Elephants on the market..
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #225,058
  • May 18, 2010 12:20pm May 18, 2010 12:20pm
133.10 barrier is about to fall, way too much volatility here, a deep war going on between bears and bulls right now.
  • #225,059
  • May 18, 2010 12:21pm May 18, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting Piters
Short-sale bans on shares have been used as temporary measures in the wake of the Lehman collapse but this is the first ban on the sale of government bonds. It is a big negative from a macro perspective for reserve managers who want big, deep, free capital markets in the markets in which they invest. IF this is more than a temporary measure, if could be a major euro negative.
Euro is gunna get caned to kingdon come if this happens.
  • #225,060
  • May 18, 2010 12:22pm May 18, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting Piters
Short-sale bans on shares have been used as temporary measures in the wake of the Lehman collapse but this is the first ban on the sale of government bonds. It is a big negative from a macro perspective for reserve managers who want big, deep, free capital markets in the markets in which they invest. IF this is more than a temporary measure, if could be a major euro negative.

Well this news is going to roll the markets... Why now??? What are the benefits? Is there news coming out on Thursday that will cause massive short selling? Honestly I don't care as I love volatility but I am sooo curious... p.....

Also VIX is heading back up
Traderdesk -
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