USDCAD trend reversal?

That's funny.

I've been saying this for months...our real numbers have been hidden for too long.

Are you calling me fat? I try and I try, but everything I eat goes straight to my pips.

Morning all,

Overnight Sarkozy rumor is really something. Explains a lot about Merkel caving in with at the time, a pending election. Also demonstrates the deep tensions in Europe as the rumor apparently started with Spain.

About trading methods, getting used to imperfect entry timing is one of the things needed to get used to. The only perfect entry is one that gets the trader aligned with the general market money flow.

Hitting the bulls eye every time is impossible. Probably more a result of sheer luck as anything else. When time passes after entry sometimes it will go for you and sometimes it will go against. It is a result of volatility and not of being right or wrong about the trade.

It is drawdown. Nothing more or less. It is the price paid for uncertainty. The money is not gone if the trade is good, since the market will bring price back to profit.

Only after whatever time frame is being traded off has sufficently passed, can an evaluation of what the trade is doing be made. Pyschologicaly is where the pressure comes from. Watch but let the fish run. Give the trade a chance to prove or to disprove the choice made.

fat with pips that was good right. geess i was tempted to take a long position. is this will continue to 1.07xx? i really want to take long for this pair. what do you think guys?

Gone Short @ 331 !

i've kept my longs open, and short scalping the UCHF. One cancels the other, but my UC targets are longer than my UCHF scalping targets.

The weekly turns bullish if we close above 1.0334, with 1.0333 being a very stiff support which got converted to very strong resistance we could very well have a 1000 pip rally from our entries.

Love +ve

Side note: Take a look at EJ short if it closes below 114 on the 4H, 7 mins to go.

May be time to get futuristic. The question that is being posed to markets is, Is bigger necessarily better?
When something as large as the Euro experiment was initiated the available technologies did not allow for easy convertability of localized currencies. The move was to create a unifying monetary unit to allow for inter nation trade to be accomodated. Thus interborder trade was facilitated and the concept of Globalization as the inevitable course of world trade was implemented.
Commoditized industrial output would flow from nations with cheap labor.
The formerly industrialized Nations could move into the post industrial age and manage the accumulated wealth of generations.

Central banks would accomodate growth with easy money and everyone would prosper. Utopia was at hand in the new age.

This has not worked as someone actualy footing the bill was not a consideration in the intellectual mainstream.

So here we are contemplating a return to individual Nations being put in the position of dealing with global trade imbalances and the transfers of wealth that has entailed. Reality as it always does has interceeded into the fantasy world of the Utopians.

With the electronics available now, the need for centralized Bureaucracies determining the course of events has ended.

The World may well be entering a decentralized organizational structure. This being facilitated by readily available technologies.

Of what difference to Athens does it make if Berlin goes its' own way.
If the Drachma comes back along with the Deutsche Mark, French Franc, Lira. Does the world really change?

I think the answer is no. Electronic floating exchange rates makes a return to National identities very easily accomplished. Only the bond market delineated by the Euro has a big problem.

Will ponder on this a bit more over the weekend, as the next trade lies in the future and not in the past. If it leads somewhere will make another post on the topic.

If anyone else has some thoughts, please to contribute. Sometimes it can be helpful to trade to let some creative juice flow.

Have a great weekend.

Great Post.

I have a feeling this was as you put it an "experiment". Too costly today.
It needed another 4-5 years to work out all the kinks and could have been successful, might still work out(although I cant see how).

The problem is too many politicians and bureaucrats at the helm, no voice of the people, diverse lifestyle and outlook of people. Sure it works in parts of the world, but only when there is one central political power chosen by the people.

not for the patient, duce

Yo DUCE: know you been talking true; cuz yur in the biz. However, I would like you to speak LOUDER as I am "fx challenged".

Do not be perturbed; I could never call you fat (the calories that you expend carrying your $$$$ to the bank would make an Olympic powerlifter's workout seem like a yoga session). Your wallet probably weighs > 3lbs.

In fact, in my mind's eye, you are the "High Priest of Pipping".

Stay green, my friend & SCREAM your mkt takes to me.

SCARE

i take long now and allready 70 pips profit. so what will happen on monday? will this pair go straight to 10.4xx?
hopefully yes....


@Duce : do you still hold your long over the week end?

Perambulating the US/CAD:

COT: the comms are decreasing their shorts (buying). This is for my future reference for trend reversal.

On D TF: 5-25 Feb down TL was broken ( $ closed >). MacD is > H2O & signal. STO (as per DUCE's parameters) shows higher lows.
My bias this week is long. 1.06ish the 50 ema on the W chart.

But the M chart says that $ could visit PARITY afore the " feces hits the rotating blades".

Anyone doubting the above? I shall entertain your feedback should you CREDITABLY explain why the SMURFS from Montreal are playing the FLIERS (the latter are unable to spell correctly-how the heck did they screw the Bruins?).

I have 2 longs open and one short I took at 1.0371, which is where it hit a downward trendline on my 1H charts. I should have closed it at 1.0322, but was in and out of the office on Friday and missed the optimal level. I will leave my long term long open as it is doing just fine. But I'm trying to figure out whether to close my short-term long or short. Both barely green. And for those of you who are calling me dumb for taking a UC short, when I could have just as easily closed my UC long, I took the short 'cause I was day trading and was not able to get out of the trade on time. That's all.

FOTO: my take re: your global macro outlook has been for positive US$.
Also, I surmise that you have been somewhat bearish this currency.

Cloud, on another thread posted: " buy US & Y".


My M "E/US" showed 1.2376 the Oct/08 low. $ closed < 200 ema & MacD < H2O & signal.

Next low1.2033 (Apr 2006).

My bias: long Loonie & short Beaver.

? Long Loonie means short eagle...not beaver.

@duce: is there any fundamental reason why the CAD was so reactive to Oil Price?
i allready close my long at 1.0405, I dont know if this market still goes up or not. but i would definitly take another long if this pair back to 1.02xx level again.

DUCE: only trade fx; therefore "loonie" in Scarespeak is US/CAD whilst Beaver is CAD/Y.

You already making enuff pips ( stop pickin' on us little dudes)

it can be a nice area 4 loading LONG !