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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #224,861
  • May 17, 2010 2:10pm May 17, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting quecee5
We have tested the weekly lower range so it's only fitting to go and test the top of the range before we head lower. . .

I would be looking at the weekly chart and put a gann 10 and 5 sma on it and look for price to target 135.88 with a spike push to 136.30/60 area before more bears unload. . .

I'm long of the 131.90 area and above 134.30 close will target 1.618 abc correction of this last move down to 136.30/60 area. . .

Just what I see - I'll post a chart in a sec to show what I'm seeing. . .
Well, at the risk of looking foolish yet again I'll go on record and say we are capped below 135.00 Honestly, I have a hard time seeing us above the lower/mid 134s and would rather favor a double top here slightly above 134 on the 15 and 30 min timeframes and trickle lower.

Again, I can't always explain my odd feelings, but something doesn't feel right here. Once I get home and get a better look at the charts I may begin shorting more.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #224,862
  • May 17, 2010 2:16pm May 17, 2010 2:16pm
have you gone long now?

Quoting Scrat
and up we go...
  • #224,863
  • May 17, 2010 2:18pm May 17, 2010 2:18pm
Anything can happen?
Anything can happen?
Anything can happen?

this is forex you lets just keep watching.

Quoting Geppy
Something doesn't seem quite right about this end of day rally. Could be overall positive for bears as I'd see some weak shorts getting rattled and bailing out. Lacking a NY close above 134.00 would seem like a red flag to me also.

I haven't been able to do any charting today, but I guess all I'm saying is that the push down to 132 seemed pretty strong while this move back up has been a grind.
  • #224,864
  • May 17, 2010 2:19pm May 17, 2010 2:19pm
Now if you look at the entire wave structre from the move lower from 140.60 we seem to be in a correction up to test the top of the broken rang at 135.88 with a push up to 136.30/60 tops. . .

Also fit right in line with ABC on my chart and weekly 5 sma is right at 136.60 area as well. . .

Notice on my chart how the pull back stopped at the 23.6% area I've been talking about which is 78.6% retrace. . . Typically when you see this the upmove is forthcoming and wave C should be somewaht impulsive which typically thrws everyone off when they see this. . .

Most will be thinkn reversal and other will be looking to short in the middle of the range of 134.30 - 136.30 or 100% - 1.618 rand and get killed trying to do so. . .

The safe trade is to wait for a close above the 100% area and wait for a test there then one could long for a nice scalp from 134.30 - 136.30 for 200 pips nicely. . .

Other than that we will range here until we break 134.30 with a close above - I'll use this same chart to demostrate the trade as it develops. . .
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  • #224,865
  • May 17, 2010 2:19pm May 17, 2010 2:19pm
and the third opinion - if we see above 135.56, then it's going to take a little bit longer for a new low.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #224,866
  • May 17, 2010 2:21pm May 17, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting Geppy
Well, at the risk of looking foolish yet again I'll go on record and say we are capped below 135.00 Honestly, I have a hard time seeing us above the lower/mid 134s and would rather favor a double top here slightly above 134 on the 15 and 30 min timeframes and trickle lower.

Again, I can't always explain my odd feelings, but something doesn't feel right here. Once I get home and get a better look at the charts I may begin shorting more.
Just posted a chart and will use this same chart to demostrate the trade as it develops. . . The weekly 5 sma will be touched before we activate the weekly bearshness. . .

I'm looking for a close above 134.30 in Asia to trigger further longs. . .
  • #224,867
  • May 17, 2010 2:24pm May 17, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting quecee5
Just posted a chart and will use this same chart to demostrate the trade as it develops. . . The weekly 5 sma will be touched before we activate the weekly bearshness. . .

I'm looking for a close above 134.30 in Asia to trigger further longs. . .
I'll stay tuned
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #224,868
  • May 17, 2010 2:24pm May 17, 2010 2:24pm
I'll tell you what. . . anyone shorting here will get a big surpirese in Asia you can believe that. . .

This is a classic set-up IMO!

If we get a daily close here further upside will be triggered. . . might see a dip below to 133.05 but we are headed up further and 134.30 will be broken. . .

Food for thought. . .
  • #224,869
  • May 17, 2010 2:25pm May 17, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting Geppy
I'll stay tuned
Yup lets see how we close on a daily that will give further clues. . .
  • #224,870
  • May 17, 2010 2:30pm May 17, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting quecee5
Yup lets see how we close on a daily that will give further clues. . .
At this point would it really change your trade bias right now? We either close between 133 and 134 or above 134... I don't see either of those scenarios changing your mind.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #224,871
  • May 17, 2010 2:32pm May 17, 2010 2:32pm
Keep thi in your "hip-pocket". . . Price will swing on a daily. . . We have touched daily S2 with a dip below to take SL's. Daily S2 is 131.68 where we bounced 200 pips up. . . Daily S1 is 133.04 which we currently trade above now. . . a close above daily S1 will target DPP @ 134.54. . .

The daily swing Daily R1 IS @ 135.9 and weekly R1 is 136.91 and weekly 5 sma is 136.60 area. . . so we could spike up but as long as we don't get a daily close above 135.88 we will swing lower back down in 5 waves to 125 based on weekly chart. . .

But let see how it plays out. . .

Giving away my "Voo Doo" majic. . . or crystal ball as some call it. . .
  • #224,872
  • Edited 2:50pm May 17, 2010 2:35pm | Edited 2:50pm
Quoting Geppy
At this point would it really change your trade bias right now? We either close between 133 and 134 or above 134... I don't see either of those scenarios changing your mind.
Daily close would change my mind if we sunk and closed below 131.68 that would put us in a new range lower to 130 - 128.17 area with dip below to 125 with a bounce. . .

But a close above 134.30 would be really good because it would give cluse where Asia will take price. . . and it would be up. . .

Lets see what happens and like I said will use that same chart to demostrate the trade as it develops. . .

Geppy if we get above 134.30 I want you to watch if we get a close above that how the candle stands right on top of that support and more than likely will not drop or get a close below it. . . just a bit of observation you'll notice. . . It will point right at the target which is 1.618. . . Call it the reckon ball because many will try like hell to short inbetween this range and get trampled over until we reach this target. . .
  • #224,873
  • May 17, 2010 2:37pm May 17, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting Scrat
if we go above 135.56 by next tokyo close, this means a bottom is in place and we should expect a significant consolidation/corrective rally.
if not, well, we continue lower.
agreed with Scrat because if this is a bull...look old and tired to me or needs more hay to keep going....i think is showing a very slow pace so in my O...we will see consolidation for the next few hours and direction on europe opening and i actually think will be downtrend one more time
  • #224,874
  • May 17, 2010 2:42pm May 17, 2010 2:42pm
for a better view of the lower timeframes, i am posting a chart showing closing levels for tokyo and london.

price went above both, so atm there is only ny horsing around with it. but as soon as a close is in place for american session, and price goes above ny close then all will come in place and corrective rally should continue.

a test of 132.85 (tokyo close today) or maybe even 132.50 (london close today) might be possible as support is almost always tested before a rally. i plan to go long with stops below 131.90... and then lock profits on the way up. i don't have a target yet, but i will reconsider @ 135.

Quoting quecee5
I'll tell you what. . . anyone shorting here will get a big surpirese in Asia you can believe that. . .

This is a classic set-up IMO!

If we get a daily close here further upside will be triggered. . . might see a dip below to 133.05 but we are headed up further and 134.30 will be broken. . .

Food for thought. . .
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #224,875
  • May 17, 2010 2:43pm May 17, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting Scrat
for a better view of the lower timeframes, i am posting a chart showing closing levels for tokyo and london.

price went above both, so atm there is only ny horsing around with it. but as soon as a close is in place for american session, and price goes above ny close then all will come in place and corrective rally should continue.

a test of 132.85 (tokyo close today) or maybe even 132.50 (london close today) might be possible as support is almost always tested before a rally. i plan to go long with stops below 131.90... and then lock profits...
Nice analysis. . . 135.53 pit stop on the way to the spike is a reaonable target. . .
  • #224,876
  • May 17, 2010 2:47pm May 17, 2010 2:47pm
Quoting Scrat
for a better view of the lower timeframes, i am posting a chart showing closing levels for tokyo and london.

price went above both, so atm there is only ny horsing around with it. but as soon as a close is in place for american session, and price goes above ny close then all will come in place and corrective rally should continue.

a test of 132.85 (tokyo close today) or maybe even 132.50 (london close today) might be possible as support is almost always tested before a rally. i plan to go long with stops below 131.90... and then lock profits...
Scrat are you looking to flip and short there? If so what's your SL target?
  • #224,877
  • May 17, 2010 2:48pm May 17, 2010 2:48pm
Q in da house
  • #224,878
  • May 17, 2010 2:49pm May 17, 2010 2:49pm
Quoting vinesh2
Q in da house
Zup V?
  • #224,879
  • May 17, 2010 2:52pm May 17, 2010 2:52pm
Yo yo. not much bro slipin and slidin grillin and chillin
  • #224,880
  • May 17, 2010 2:53pm May 17, 2010 2:53pm
yes. i placed shorts @ 135.10 (that's 100 FE) with stops above 135.56... planning to lock profits as we go down. no target for downside yet.

if my stops are triggered, most probably i will step aside as i believe there will be a complicated correction before another move to the downside.

Quoting quecee5
Scrat are you looking to flip and short there? If so what's your SL target?
Nihil Sine Deo.
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