Any mathematicians able to help out here? Stats have never been my finest point so...

Probability of a losing streak is, in Excel speak:

=(1+(n-s)*p)*(POWER(l,s))

where n=number of trades, s=number of losing streaks, p=probability of winning, l=probability of losing.

Ok, so say I have a strat 23% successful over 220 trades, I get figures like this (written number of losses followed by probability)

10 361.21%

15 95.49%

20 25.23%

25 6.66%

30 1.76%

... something is amiss - 361%?? Any ideas?

Probability of a losing streak is, in Excel speak:

=(1+(n-s)*p)*(POWER(l,s))

where n=number of trades, s=number of losing streaks, p=probability of winning, l=probability of losing.

Ok, so say I have a strat 23% successful over 220 trades, I get figures like this (written number of losses followed by probability)

10 361.21%

15 95.49%

20 25.23%

25 6.66%

30 1.76%

... something is amiss - 361%?? Any ideas?