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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #224,621
  • May 14, 2010 1:17pm May 14, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting 5ysfx
05/07 daily low support
gu double bottom support
uj weekly ema50 support

In last gj analysis i wrote after 137 give away we will stop at 133

I do not expect we gonna cut it like a butter, at least not now unless terror come in again...

Daytrading is very risky for me these days.

BTW fiber bounced off at 2008 low... at least for now

nope..we will spike down to as low as 132.14 ,,then next week a full bullish week to as high as 138.80,,but after all ,after consilidation we will see 125 and lower..

my view change a bit after we struggle to go lower,and that mean we still ranging and will see 138 next week..

btw im long from 132.14 upto 138 ,,then i start short for swing trade
  • #224,622
  • May 14, 2010 1:28pm May 14, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting fullhouse
nope..we will spike down to as low as 132.14 ,,then next week a full bullish week to as high as 138.80,,but after all ,after consilidation we will see 125 and lower..

my view change a bit after we struggle to go lower,and that mean we still ranging and will see 138 next week..

btw im long from 132.14 upto 138 ,,then i start short for swing trade
There is no volume, and the price is holding around 133.90~134.50. Is hard to see it going down with this volume. Maybe range till next week.
  • #224,623
  • May 14, 2010 1:36pm May 14, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting fullhouse
nope..we will spike down to as low as 132.14 ,,then next week a full bullish week to as high as 138.80,,but after all ,after consilidation we will see 125 and lower..

my view change a bit after we struggle to go lower,and that mean we still ranging and will see 138 next week..

btw im long from 132.14 upto 138 ,,then i start short for swing trade
U meant u will take long when we see 132.14
daily low is 133.21 so far...
  • #224,624
  • May 14, 2010 1:45pm May 14, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting special0nefx
There is no volume, and the price is holding around 133.90~134.50. Is hard to see it going down with this volume. Maybe range till next week.
yip,,,def not 2day,, its dead quiet..monday/thuesday a spike to 132.14..then up all week..

we will past 130 level to 123.80 later,,but for the whole month we will consilidate in a triangle... REMEMBER TO SELL ALL 78.6

this gonna be a sick trade coming days. i will say it again a mother of all trades ,,from 138 and keep adding shorts on all rallies and keep it till 123.80 ..i know its a huge trade,that start to develop ,,its obv and clear infront of us ,
we are in a triangle so we can buy at 132 to 138 ,,its 600 pips,,but then im done buying and add on every rally at 78.6 until the breakout..

we will go beyound 128 and 125 ,,,123.80 will stopped it ,and thats my low...

thats all what i have to say... follow it or ignor it ..

its only my view !
  • #224,625
  • May 14, 2010 2:19pm May 14, 2010 2:19pm
Quoting special0nefx
Maybe, but my chart told me 133 reach 1st. Is a freaky friday dude...also expect range on next week.
The new range is 135.88 - 129.22 stay tuned. . . breaking and cosing below 135.88 will be significant!
  • #224,626
  • May 14, 2010 2:19pm May 14, 2010 2:19pm
If we go to 138 before next Wednesday, we could go a lot higher.
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  • #224,627
  • May 14, 2010 2:21pm May 14, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting fullhouse
yip,,,def not 2day,, its dead quiet..monday/thuesday a spike to 132.14..then up all week..

we will past 130 level to 123.80 later,,but for the whole month we will consilidate in a triangle... REMEMBER TO SELL ALL 78.6

this gonna be a sick trade coming days. i will say it again a mother of all trades ,,from 138 and keep adding shorts on all rallies and keep it till 123.80 ..i know its a huge trade,that start to develop ,,its obv and clear infront of us ,
we are in a triangle so we can buy at 132 to 138 ,,its 600 pips,,but...
With today [email protected], Retracement to [email protected] is a possible. If there this is today low
  • #224,628
  • May 14, 2010 2:24pm May 14, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting quecee5
The new range is 135.88 - 129.22 stay tuned. . . breaking and cosing below 135.88 will be significant!
I draw out, on H1 [email protected] at 137.11, highest retrace. If this is today's low
  • #224,629
  • May 14, 2010 2:44pm May 14, 2010 2:44pm
If Sun/Mon Daily closes higher, we would have a Double Bottom. I am not too sure of the significance of this ... anyone?
  • #224,630
  • May 14, 2010 3:00pm May 14, 2010 3:00pm
Quoting special0nefx
I draw out, on H1 [email protected] at 137.11, highest retrace. If this is today's low
K stay tuned. . . Only I think it gets there is thru UJ because sterling is week and could see 1.43/1.41 soon taking GJ with it!
  • #224,631
  • May 14, 2010 3:05pm May 14, 2010 3:05pm
Quoting quecee5
K stay tuned. . . Only I think it gets there is thru UJ because sterling is week and could see 1.43/1.41 soon taking GJ with it!
Market is closing in 1 hours , i'm not sure about it. But i can stay tuned, since tomorrow is weekend.
  • #224,632
  • May 14, 2010 3:32pm May 14, 2010 3:32pm
You think it's a good idea to take short position before the weekend for potential gap down ? (that's if we do not break 135.8 in next half an hour ) Or better wait ?
  • #224,633
  • May 14, 2010 3:36pm May 14, 2010 3:36pm
Quecee ,,how positive are you that we sont see above 135.70 again ??

the move 2day was a slow process and does not look close to a breakout or a contIniueATION -action .. are we still in a consilidation mode ? of 140&130 ??

what i see is a triangle(possibiltiy) on daily ,and if you loook at gbp/usd that the setup is a similiar one ?

how strong is 135.70.. i dont know? but i do see 138 ..

i might be wrong, but 2day move was not my liking ..

if gbp/usd break the low,then YES i will back your view and we wont see above 135.again..

here is the 2 charts.of usd/gbp and gbp/jpy

( gbp/jpy is not near a confirmation of a triangle ) ITS ONLY SPECULATION OF THE THE 2 PAIRS
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  • #224,634
  • May 14, 2010 3:42pm May 14, 2010 3:42pm
EUR shorts hit another record on IMM
Written by Jamie Coleman - May 14, 2010 at 19:49 GMT

No real surprise given we’ve fallen like a rock since Monday morning but net EUR shorts rose to a record 113.9K contracts on the IMM as of the close of business on Tuesday. The market is probably even shorter now.
GBP is also at a record short position of 72.2K.
Fading the market based on the this Commitments of Traders data has been a losing effort of late, but the data is instructive. Once the turn comes in the market, the rebound will be swift. If short, keep stops in place or use some profits to buy out-of the-money calls to protect your winnings.

I'd not seen any references to GBP short counts over the last many weeks - I recall EURUSD being 88K or so contracts when it was 1.28 - and look where that got us to!
  • #224,635
  • May 14, 2010 3:50pm May 14, 2010 3:50pm
Left 10mins. Day close below 135 looks promising. But 133...common waiting you now
Well I'm off now, see you all next week. Enjoy and have nice weekend...rest well all.
Have a nice day too, Q...All the best.
  • #224,636
  • May 14, 2010 9:36pm May 14, 2010 9:36pm
Probably big move next week
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  • #224,637
  • May 15, 2010 1:48am May 15, 2010 1:48am
Quoting Mr.Sabah
Probably big move next week
well, i was hope spike the low till 132.xx at least of this weekend gap. Then i be really happy with my count
  • #224,638
  • May 15, 2010 11:02am May 15, 2010 11:02am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6136
Cable:
Longs were scaled in at 14695 and 14670, currently -140, targets 148, 150, 152 and above. Will be moved to BE at 148.
Everyone is short, so it would be rude of me not to take the opposite side, particularly when everyone is still selling at the bottom of a 500 pip move with no retracement. Does it have to retrace? No, but put it this way, I wouldn’t sell down here particularly going into the weekend. Didn’t see any profit taking going into NY close, so Shorts are determined to hold through a possible spike through their stops Sunday PM Asia. Time will tell.
Charts Analysis:
Monthly; Ascending Triangle. We have not completed the month and I believe this down move below the TL is a bear trap to be followed by a rise back inside the ascending triangle.
1st Daily: Descending wedge, a break above descending TL at 15000(ish) area would provide tremendous momentum and accelerate to 155 and above.
2nd Daily: (chart from 48 hours ago) price held at bottom TL, could see rise to Descending UTL if 148 and 150 breaks.
4hrs: Possible double bottom scenario.

So, in brief:
Possible double bottom.
Price held at bottom of Daily descending wedge.
Price held at Lower Daily descending TL.
Price broken through Monthly ascending TL but not yet completed, possible bear trap.
Inside bar on Weekly (chart not shown), break of inside bar to upside during following week could provide beginning of new uptrend.
I will hold 14695 and 14670 Longs, at 148 will move to BE and target 150, 152 but will assess enroute. Ultimate target 155, seems unlikely given the current news, but the charts are the charts...and we know the news follows the charts.
Talking of news....seems we have discovered yet another “bloody hell, how much??!!” oil field off the Falkland Islands again this week. I mentioned this a few weeks ago, Oil will be the UK’s saviour, AKA North Sea Oil 1970’s.

Enjoy the weekend! (Unlike me slogging over the charts lol)

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  • #224,639
  • May 15, 2010 12:21pm May 15, 2010 12:21pm
long term chart is not bullish and i don't know why people are even considering going long. there are a bunch of resistance levels on the way up, and we are far down... even from the first one.

IF WE ARE TO GO UP, first we must stop going down, and then confirm a bottom is in place (+ other signs...). what, do you think you'd miss the train and it would go straight to 200.xx in 2 days???

?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #224,640
  • May 15, 2010 12:25pm May 15, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting Scrat
long term chart is not bullish and i don't know why people are even considering going long. there are a bunch of resistance levels on the way up, and we are far down... even from the first one.

IF WE ARE TO GO UP, first we must stop going down, and then confirm a bottom is in place (+ other signs...). what, do you think you'd miss the train and it would go straight to 200.xx in 2 days???

?
...129.60 my target n open gap up tomorrow where good to add more...weekly chanelling
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