DislikedSo far I have not been able to get Z's EA to work on FXSol UK. Is there any modification that needs to be done. It is not drawing the lines there for it is not trading.Ignored
- #3,562
- Edited 2:57pm May 12, 2010 2:21pm | Edited 2:57pm
I have been busy for the last week or so investigating ways to make the EA and this system more fool proof and profitable. I like the idea of entering counter to the trend, however finding when there actually is a trend reversal coming is quite diffictult. I starting looking into creating an amalgam of the information in the Craig Harris thread and what Nanningbob is doing here.
First using fractals to determine when to start entering. In other words: IF (Price) is above Line (A or B) AND a Down Fractal Appears = Sell ; reverse for buy. I am...
To me, you never lose in the market, you are just temporarily giving up some gains or some money to someone else to hold for the time being. There will be payback and with interest.
I also believe that we don't scratch the surface on the IQ level of what is needed to build a 'perfect' system that doesn't loose or losses so little that everyone would be stupid not to do it. I also do not believe in mechanical systems that will trade people to riches.
I believe you have to learn to trade the best mechanical systems with discretion and I believe that besides this EA going crazy w/ entries upon big trends, then I believe it is pretty damn good.
Please keep us posted for your results, but I believe this already very profitable system will always keep you in the green/black if you choose to trade it well.I did look at the other system and it does seem good, but a different system in a way.
---EDIT, Going live this week $300.00 on 4H manual system (since drawdowns are so small) and $3,000.00 w/ EA system since drawdowns are larger, but I will keep a tighter leash on the number of entries. EA account won't be setup till probably Sunday.
We are our own best indicator.
- #3,572
- May 13, 2010 2:56pm May 13, 2010 2:56pm
Hi there Bluemele
For the recovery EA try post 2393 23rd Aug2009
I like Bob's specific method in the manual a little better than this one, but it is interesting. I wonder if putting Bob's specific technique from the latest would be worth a shot for manual traders that want to sleep while the market is raging.
We are our own best indicator.
- #3,574
- May 13, 2010 7:50pm May 13, 2010 7:50pm
Hi All,
Please disregard some of my results (below) thus far as I have been lazy and didn't update my pip distance and got caught in a downward spiral w/ too many entries on just a few currencies for such a small account, plus when I set up the demo, I accidentally only put 10K when it was supposed to be 50K which was the typical start for my other broker on demo's.. (I wanted to stick w/ sizes as that is what I would be trading etc..)
On the Manual system, I accidentally left my demo amounts (.07) instead of the cash amount (.01) on EURUSD and it nearly sank the account overnight! oops! I guess that is why you demo and go live with such small amounts first!
I am now running the STOP GAP 4HR & 1HR system, along w/ the semi-automatic traditional EA and the 4HR manual system.
I do believe this is a great strategy if anyone has the patience to stick with it and not get distracted by 2,000 other systems on FF!
Please disregard some of my results (below) thus far as I have been lazy and didn't update my pip distance and got caught in a downward spiral w/ too many entries on just a few currencies for such a small account, plus when I set up the demo, I accidentally only put 10K when it was supposed to be 50K which was the typical start for my other broker on demo's.. (I wanted to stick w/ sizes as that is what I would be trading etc..)
On the Manual system, I accidentally left my demo amounts (.07) instead of the cash amount (.01) on EURUSD and it nearly sank the account overnight!
oops! I guess that is why you demo and go live with such small amounts first! I am now running the STOP GAP 4HR & 1HR system, along w/ the semi-automatic traditional EA and the 4HR manual system.
I do believe this is a great strategy if anyone has the patience to stick with it and not get distracted by 2,000 other systems on FF!
We are our own best indicator.
- #3,578
- Edited 1:32pm May 14, 2010 1:09pm | Edited 1:32pm
Hey Jay I downloaded the stops EA from this post and ran back testing on a couple of pairs using ratio 0.4 The results were average at best. Is there a reason for that? There seemed to be lots of similar size wins to losses on the graph. I'm a bit confused by that. Is the back test doing something that wouldn't happen in real life.
If you want a set-and-forget type of situation, there's really no point in using the Stop EA. It will most likely just eat into your profits because it will miss several profitable trades in order to incorporate a safety mechanism you aren't using. Instead, just set the StopGapRatio to 0 (essentially disabling the feature) and check out Zura's posts going back several weeks because I think that's more or less his goal.
It's far from me to judge anyone's trading style out there, but I think everyone who likes this system needs to take a serious look at what their goals are. In spite of all of the refinements, this is still a martingale (double down) style system. It's my belief that anyone who plans to "set and forget" this EA in any version with any settings on any time frame will eventually lose all of their money. Even if you figure out settings that are conservative enough not to blow your account, you will be far less profitable than someone who examines every trade, constantly tweaks their strategy, customizes their settings for currency pairs, and actively manages their margin.
Somewhere I saw a backtest on this thread in which, running 24/7 for a year, the EA made 50% return on the account. That's a ridiculously good return really by any measure. But not nearly as good as I plan to do once the dust settles in this market. And, eventually it will blow up.
I'm going to bear my soul here. I've been trading nbob systems LIVE for 2.5 months now--the only system i've ever traded live. My return? 0%. Yes, I've merely broken even. But that doesn't give you a true picture of how things have gone. If I could have eliminated my rookie mistakes and taken control of things at times instead of trusting the computer, I estimate that my account would have grown 40% during that time.
To give one particularly excruciating example, I once fell asleep with my computer on my lap running my 5M system. I woke up to a nightmare--a horrible trade gone out to where the first recovery level would have been (that's 4 levels) drawing down my account nearly 15%. I was able to trade my way to "only" a 10% loss, but could you imagine how that felt to lose that amount on one trade over one night?
My point in sharing this is that I believe the experience of forward testing this EA will make you realize that the robot is something to be USED but not TRUSTED with your money. He's cold, narrow-minded, and dumb. A blunt instrument.
As usual, though, I qualify everything I've just said with the fact that I am still very much a forex/trading newbie. Perhaps with enough modifications we can build the automated "holy grail" nanningbob system--if such a thing is even desirable. But for as much as this thread has benefited my trading intellect, I'd be remiss not to share my experiences for your digestion.
El Salon, I'm sorry I used your question to go off on a rant. And Bob, i'm sorry to have hijacked your threads with my long-winded posts.
-Jay
Update: Stop EA went out to two levels pending on USD/CHF. At 1 PM on a friday? No thanks. I deleted the stops and I'm shut down on all pairs until sunday.
- #3,579
- May 14, 2010 4:42pm May 14, 2010 4:42pm
- Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Teach men to fish | 7,384 Posts
I present to you. the Donchian Channel! Why does this matter to you or anyone else reading this thread? Because it works on the exact same principles as the Sixth Screen Indicator. Allow me to explain.
The Sixth Screen Indicator:
Finds the Highest High over a set of bars
Finds the Lowest Low over a set of bars
Determines the "Range" between the Highest High and Lowest Low and divides it into 6 equal segments.
Your goal with the Sixth Screen Indicator is to then find where the price crosses those lines and expect a retrace down to a previous line.
Donchian Channel:
Finds the Highest High over a set of bars
Finds the Lowest Low over a set of bars
Draws a line at those Highs and Lows
Your goal with the Donchian Channel is to see when the Price CLOSES touching or outside either the upper or lower line, this signals price will continue in that general direction.
Now why is this important and how does it effect the Nanningbob Strategy.
A) It gives you a visual reference for the range that the Sixth Screen Indicator is currently working with, and what it WAS working with.
B) It gives you a valuable tool to help prevent continueing to tier into a bad or loosing trade, letting you know its a good time to cut your losses. This, is the PRIMARY reason I am recommending adding this indicator to this system.
C) It allows you to combine a trend following system with the Nanningbob counter trend system in one easy to understand indicator.
By watching where the price is in relation to the Donchian Channel, you can decide if its a good idea to stay in a trade longer, add an additional tier, or get out before your losses get worse. Take a look at this screenshot of the GBPUSD H4 so you can see how it relates.
Taking a look at that screenshot you can see how at the point I have indicated that the Sixth Screen Indicator would have been suggesting you continue to enter Buy's and wait on the retrace; however by using the Donchian Channel to see a new downtrend is starting, you would have closed your Buys and Entered Sells waiting until the trend started to retrace. This would have not only prevented continued or greater losses, but would also allowed you to profit on the trend.
I have included here the Donchian Channel indicator, however I am not happy with this one and will probably edit it some in the near future to allow it to "Shift" so its easier to see the signal. A lot of people who use it as a trend signal tend to forget your supposed to compare the previous close to the the line before it, so they think it "never gives a valid signal", adding a shift would eliminate that.
Just in case I didn't explain it well enough, for more details on the Donchian Channel, its creator and proper use check out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donchian_channel
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...dsChannels.asp
EDIT: Make sure you set the Donchian Period to the same period your using for the Sixth Screen indicator/EA. IE, if your using 120 Bars, then set Donchian to be 120 as well. Otherwise it will not make any sense.
The Sixth Screen Indicator:
Finds the Highest High over a set of bars
Finds the Lowest Low over a set of bars
Determines the "Range" between the Highest High and Lowest Low and divides it into 6 equal segments.
Your goal with the Sixth Screen Indicator is to then find where the price crosses those lines and expect a retrace down to a previous line.
Donchian Channel:
Finds the Highest High over a set of bars
Finds the Lowest Low over a set of bars
Draws a line at those Highs and Lows
Your goal with the Donchian Channel is to see when the Price CLOSES touching or outside either the upper or lower line, this signals price will continue in that general direction.
Now why is this important and how does it effect the Nanningbob Strategy.
A) It gives you a visual reference for the range that the Sixth Screen Indicator is currently working with, and what it WAS working with.
B) It gives you a valuable tool to help prevent continueing to tier into a bad or loosing trade, letting you know its a good time to cut your losses. This, is the PRIMARY reason I am recommending adding this indicator to this system.
C) It allows you to combine a trend following system with the Nanningbob counter trend system in one easy to understand indicator.
By watching where the price is in relation to the Donchian Channel, you can decide if its a good idea to stay in a trade longer, add an additional tier, or get out before your losses get worse. Take a look at this screenshot of the GBPUSD H4 so you can see how it relates.
Taking a look at that screenshot you can see how at the point I have indicated that the Sixth Screen Indicator would have been suggesting you continue to enter Buy's and wait on the retrace; however by using the Donchian Channel to see a new downtrend is starting, you would have closed your Buys and Entered Sells waiting until the trend started to retrace. This would have not only prevented continued or greater losses, but would also allowed you to profit on the trend.
I have included here the Donchian Channel indicator, however I am not happy with this one and will probably edit it some in the near future to allow it to "Shift" so its easier to see the signal. A lot of people who use it as a trend signal tend to forget your supposed to compare the previous close to the the line before it, so they think it "never gives a valid signal", adding a shift would eliminate that.
Just in case I didn't explain it well enough, for more details on the Donchian Channel, its creator and proper use check out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donchian_channel
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...dsChannels.asp
EDIT: Make sure you set the Donchian Period to the same period your using for the Sixth Screen indicator/EA. IE, if your using 120 Bars, then set Donchian to be 120 as well. Otherwise it will not make any sense.