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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,321
  • May 14, 2010 3:50am May 14, 2010 3:50am
Quoting Cyrus
Hey Gro, was looking for a post and came across this... very interesting...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15034

How do you do this? Gann? Fib ratios? Does it allow future boxes?

... secuences, ratio trend + thickening
  • #15,322
  • May 14, 2010 4:02am May 14, 2010 4:02am
Quoting auxesis
This is one of my favorite posts in the thread, much to digest.............. is the time window from earlier posts related to this range window discussed here as a starting point or base to calculate from?

Hi Auxesis,
Me too, I am still frying my brain over this phi and pi and range window thingy. I have my ears tuned to our learned students comments.

My own use of the Principle of Vibration is -
Price vibrates
It vibrates between support and resistance.
S & R can be fixed or dynamic, fixed such as peaks and valleys to the left of the chart, dynamic such as hitting extremes of oscillators and make a regression to mean.
We can be fanciful like Gann and invent names for vibrations, if we call them cycles, you can never know which cycle is "it", as price bounces from fixed or dynamic S&R you still have to follow PA to see if the bounce will take, or fail and continues to a larger cycle.

Regards,
Baifu

Edit:
Suppose we have identified a trend on a larger time frame, say the Daily.
The further we zoom in from the daily the more the principle of vibration trumps the daily trend.
For example the 15 minute will vibrate from S&R printing counter trends throughout the day.
However so long as the trend remains intact the rubber band snap back will be in the direction of trend (fti explained this, and the Law of Motion) that's why we should trade in the direction of the larger trend.
However the 1 minute rubber band snap backs are seen in either direction, not because As Above So Below is invalid, but because there are so amny trends and countertrends between the Daily and 1 minute.
  • #15,323
  • May 14, 2010 4:06am May 14, 2010 4:06am
Someone has information about Germany?The net is terrible "conspiratorial game" e.g. Merkel expression at 19.00 today etc.
  • #15,324
  • May 14, 2010 4:15am May 14, 2010 4:15am
Quoting Gro
Someone has information about Germany?The net is terrible "conspiratorial game" e.g. Merkel expression at 19.00 today etc.
The place is full of rumors and markets are covered with blood today.

Here's a quote I particularly like:

In some ways it’s a battle of the politicians against the markets. That’s how I do see it. But I’m determined to win this battle.
- Angela Merkel
  • #15,325
  • Edited 4:42am May 14, 2010 4:18am | Edited 4:42am
Quoting Baifu
Hi Jest,
Point taken. Thanks.
I don't think we necessarily disagree about the use of Elliot wave or true range, it's just the difficulty of getting across what we mean in a forum. And my haphazard looking entries in my experiment has not shown the fact (more hard work needed!) I have tried very hard to apply all I have learned about TA and Elliot Wave - impulsive, reactive, extension in impulse, combination in reactive, alterncation, truncation, mono- and polywave, zigzag, flats and triangles, beginning and ending diagonals, runaway wave 4 and wave...
i think youre missing my point again. there is no projection but of course theres always expectancy, just trade the waves when they happen and adjust your skews accordingly, i dont know anything else abt the rest of the things you're saying, definitely you have more grounding with regards to it than me. cheers

so what happens if the expectation do not occur, in programming we would call it using if and else function. so if this does not happen do this else do this, plan for both ways even during an attack or defense sequence, it has to be on the fly, during a campaign certain thing may not go in accordance to intial plans thus your need to retract and restratagise.

study back the chart you posted.
can you see the impulse? thats where you get to start feeling the moves in waves. rest is like you said your sizing
  • #15,326
  • May 14, 2010 4:21am May 14, 2010 4:21am
Quoting Setebos
The place is full of rumors and markets are covered with blood today.

Here's a quote I particularly like:

In some ways it’s a battle of the politicians against the markets. That’s how I do see it. But I’m determined to win this battle.
- Angela Merkel

So the current market situation pushes Merkel into a corner?!?
  • #15,327
  • May 14, 2010 4:29am May 14, 2010 4:29am
Quoting Gro
So the current market situation pushes Merkel into a corner?!?
It is my personal opinion, so don't read too much into it, but Germany has played its cards and is well hedged in the situation created - they gave loans at higher interest so when this crisis is over (one way or another) they will basically own southern Europe. In the interim their exports are flowering thanks to the cheaper and cheaper EUR, and on top of that gold is being piled up in Germany in amounts not seen since World War 2 (I just can't ignore the irony, hah )

Germans are gonna be OK. What's going to happen in the market, however is another story. I think we are near an extreme. Look at what's happening to Dow. Remember the 3 basic rules of the Dow theory?
  • #15,328
  • May 14, 2010 4:30am May 14, 2010 4:30am
Quoting auxesis
Textor,

Yes, I can see where Fti, is noting the base price structure as possible support, and I can see where he has referenced the distance of the original move and is using it as a measure to project extension, my question is concerning the "time measurement. Is it an actual calculation or just an approximate box placed at the desired support level, and if that why label it as a time window?

As I went through the thread, I have formed what I thought was the correct view, but would like to hear what others think, or if these questions were...
Great post, as usual

rgs,
baifu
  • #15,329
  • May 14, 2010 4:38am May 14, 2010 4:38am
Quoting jest1081
study back the chart you posted.
can you see the impulse?
Yes, telling impulse from reactive is always my main tool, and I believe I can tell. Except when you zoom too much in from the Daily, impulse and reactive happen both up and down.
you seem to say we should poilish our dance / chart reading skills and make better entry / exit - no quarrel with that - but I am saying there is only so far I can go and must amend my shortcoming through position sizing.
Again not sure if we are talking beside each other but enjoy your conversation anyway
Rgs
Baifu
  • #15,330
  • May 14, 2010 4:40am May 14, 2010 4:40am
Quoting Setebos
It is my personal opinion, so don't read too much into it, but Germany has played its cards and is well hedged in the situation created - they gave loans at higher interest so when this crisis is over (one way or another) they will basically own southern Europe. In the interim their exports are flowering thanks to the cheaper and cheaper EUR, and on top of that gold is being piled up in Germany in amounts not seen since World War 2 (I just can't ignore the irony, hah )

Germans are gonna be OK. What's going to happen in the market, however is another...
Germany is GmbH since World War II.Who is his patron?
  • #15,331
  • May 14, 2010 4:46am May 14, 2010 4:46am
No news from Germany, but on the eur drop, French President did threaten that they'd pull France out of euro if other EU countries did not help rescue Greece.
  • #15,332
  • May 14, 2010 4:46am May 14, 2010 4:46am
Quoting Baifu
Yes, telling impulse from reactive is always my main tool, and I believe I can tell. Except when you zoom too much in from the Daily, impulse and reactive happen both up and down.
you seem to say we should poilish our dance / chart reading skills and make better entry / exit - no quarrel with that - but I am saying there is only so far I can go and must amend my shortcoming through position sizing.
Again not sure if we are talking beside each other but enjoy your conversation anyway
Rgs
Baifu
no i was merely addressing your initial point on the fact that TA carries no neccesity, when i reckon you research the use of atr and elliot to streamline your entries. if i have misunderstood, i stand corrected.

Quoting imjscn
No news from Germany, but on the eur drop, French President did threaten that they'd pull France out of euro if other EU countries did not help rescue Greece.
hoho, it has become a fracas. oh dear trichet....
  • #15,333
  • May 14, 2010 4:57am May 14, 2010 4:57am
There it goes

Inserted Video
  • #15,334
  • May 14, 2010 5:53am May 14, 2010 5:53am
Quoting jest1081
i think youre missing my point again. there is no projection but of course theres always expectancy, just trade the waves when they happen and adjust your skews accordingly, i dont know anything else abt the rest of the things you're saying, definitely you have more grounding with regards to it than me. cheers

so what happens if the expectation do not occur, in programming we would call it using if and else function. so if this does not happen do this else do this, [color=red][color=red]plan for both ways even during an attack...
Taken my walk and my head is clearer.
Actually we agree (the red)
What I don't entirely agree - we can always tell impulse from reactive in hindsight, but during wave formation I can never be sure in the NOW for teh 5_1 minute, so I compensate with position sizing. The 1 minute is full of noise, I don't want to trade the 1 minute but given my time constraint (daylight only, and hopefully only 3-4 hours at a stretch) I have to learn to cope with the noise.

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #15,335
  • May 14, 2010 5:54am May 14, 2010 5:54am
For you guys
And a question just out of curiosity:

fti, did you happen to run into this guy during your days at the bank(s)?

http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/XH5W4vffBbY/
  • #15,336
  • May 14, 2010 6:44am May 14, 2010 6:44am
Quoting auxesis
Jest,

20 minutes I believe is correct, as noted by Fti, In your Tunnel trade layouts I think you made mention of the fact that they had a similar appearance ( although the skewing is different), to Fti's and what's presented here.

My only question was the amount of time figured, was it determined from the chart as in some type of measure of the previous leg and it's volatility, or was the size "width" of the support box drawn just a visual. Or like you referenced, maybe an average time for typical desk maneuvering. The reason for my question,...
Aux...the time window could be related to 3 kingdoms.
  • #15,337
  • May 14, 2010 6:49am May 14, 2010 6:49am
Quoting Setebos
For you guys
And a question just out of curiosity:

fti, did you happen to run into this guy during your days at the bank(s)?

http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/XH5W4vffBbY/
This is what FTI thinks about that movie

Quoting fti
Hi btr5596,
Sorry, to say , but this is BIG time novice Futures Gambler, gambling with others money. Nothing Pro about how he trades.The pros were making the market for him thru his brokers

Maybe there may be a clip about the real Pros one day.

regards
  • #15,338
  • May 14, 2010 6:55am May 14, 2010 6:55am
Quoting M-H Trader
This is what FTI thinks about that movie
I don't think there's any reference to the guy as being that much of a Pro, actually he is presented as being a relatively small firm. Still, that satisfies my curiosity (I guess I missed that bit back in the thread), thanks
  • #15,339
  • May 14, 2010 6:55am May 14, 2010 6:55am
The second leg down is often a gift - this one stop right at a Fib extension. I missed it, Friday afternoon is off.

rgs
baifu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20100514_2ndleg.jpg Size: 196 KB
  • #15,340
  • May 14, 2010 7:02am May 14, 2010 7:02am
Quoting Setebos
I don't think there's any reference to the guy as being that much of a Pro, actually he is presented as being a relatively small firm. Still, that satisfies my curiosity (I guess I missed that bit back in the thread), thanks
Well he is a billionare now haha. I'm sure he changed his ways thats why he didnt want this movie to be on the web.
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