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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,301
  • May 13, 2010 11:57pm May 13, 2010 11:57pm
Quoting jest1081
i havent got to read it coz its been blocked but ive read from fti that ganns average time was not more than 20 minutes?

still think support areas fti noted is based on market structure, pivot levels which all dealers take note of while he calls it support it may also not neccesarily form one, thus the time window given to determine market reaction.
Jest,

20 minutes I believe is correct, as noted by Fti, In your Tunnel trade layouts I think you made mention of the fact that they had a similar appearance ( although the skewing is different), to Fti's and what's presented here.

My only question was the amount of time figured, was it determined from the chart as in some type of measure of the previous leg and it's volatility, or was the size "width" of the support box drawn just a visual. Or like you referenced, maybe an average time for typical desk maneuvering. The reason for my question, was on a couple of occasions Fti made reference that the time window had closed. The basis of his "time" I am not certain.

Your prior post to Baifu, is spot on in my view fwiw

regards,

getting sleepy, big day tomorrow. Pillow calling my name.
  • #15,302
  • May 14, 2010 12:45am May 14, 2010 12:45am
If there are differences in closing and opening prices between two different brokers, it will lead to different technical signals. How do we know which to follow? This is one of the fallacy, I think.
  • #15,303
  • May 14, 2010 12:52am May 14, 2010 12:52am
Quoting Usdjpy
If there are differences in closing and opening prices between two different brokers, it will lead to different technical signals. How do we know which to follow? This is one of the fallacy, I think.
this is no fallacy in any form. it's just purely ignorance of people. if people can't realise what they are actually looking at when they see a chart, and more importantly what they are NOT seeing... well, then they have a lot of thinking and learning to do as they are simply drinking the koolaid for the time-being.

you have at least taken some time to think about it which is a step in the right direction for sure.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,304
  • Edited 1:42am May 14, 2010 1:15am | Edited 1:42am
Clip is a good overview, however cant seem to be able to copy and paste.

check meltup.

http://www.youtube.com/user/goldtoth.../0/eb1n1xo0qdw
  • #15,305
  • May 14, 2010 1:20am May 14, 2010 1:20am
Quoting Usdjpy
If there are differences in closing and opening prices between two different brokers, it will lead to different technical signals. How do we know which to follow? This is one of the fallacy, I think.
in the method, there is no such thing called technical signal or perfect entry, i implore you read the thread again or ask any of the older members here for a collated booklet on how fti approach the method, it appears you may not have fully understood the modus. Page 1-200 is core.

Quote
this is no fallacy in any form. it's just purely ignorance of people. if people can't realise what they are actually looking at when they see a chart, and more importantly what they are NOT seeing... well, then they have a lot of thinking and learning to do as they are simply drinking the koolaid for the time-being.

you have at least taken some time to think about it which is a step in the right direction for sure.

to be honest, i dont catch your drift...
are you trying to drive any sort of point here?

The fallacy is not in the technical analysis but the point being driven here is the recent uses of technical analysis which has very much swayed from its original purpose. The title of the thread can prove to be misleading but it will be quite clear once you have taken time to digest the message

btw aux,
happy dreams!
  • #15,306
  • May 14, 2010 1:31am May 14, 2010 1:31am
Quoting jest1081
to be honest, i dont catch your drift...
are you trying to drive any sort of point here?

The fallacy is not in the technical analysis but the point being driven here is the recent uses of technical analysis which has very much swayed from its original purpose. The title of the thread can prove to be misleading but it will be quite clear once you have taken time to digest the message

btw aux,
happy dreams!
you completely missed the point, and yes there was a point.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,307
  • May 14, 2010 1:32am May 14, 2010 1:32am
I guess I'll just stick to the one that's more accurate. Thks Jest1081.
  • #15,308
  • May 14, 2010 1:36am May 14, 2010 1:36am
Quoting nubcake
you completely missed the point, and yes there was a point.
so please elaborate Thank you.
i must admit that im quite slow at catching things. regards

Usdjpy,
you're very welcome, im sure everyone here will be happy to assist you if you have any queries.
  • #15,309
  • Edited 1:45am May 14, 2010 1:44am | Edited 1:45am
usdjpy : oh snap!

jest : consider this... looking at a 1 hr chart shows you whatever it does, right? but what if you had the same data that generated that chart and simply changed the start time of the 1hr bars by any number at all, say half an hour. then what happens? the bars are completely different. nothing has changed but the perspective to which you have viewed the data... or rather, have been forced to view it in.

formations such as pin bars and doji's etc etc... they are all NOT pin bars and doji's if you adjust the timeframe around. it's conceivable that a a doji may look like an engulfing bar if you simply adjust your starting time of the bar.

i didn't think i'd made it difficult to understand my point, so fair enough i guess i did.

is this type of thinking not the genesis of this entire thread?
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,310
  • Edited 2:17am May 14, 2010 1:52am | Edited 2:17am
Quoting nubcake
usdjpy : oh snap!

jest : consider this... looking at a 1 hr chart shows you whatever it does, right? but what if you had the same data that generated that chart and simply changed the start time of the 1hr bars by any number at all, say half an hour. then what happens? the bars are completely different. nothing has changed but the perspective to which you have viewed the data... or rather, have been forced to view it in.

formations such as pin bars and doji's etc etc... they are all NOT pin bars and doji's if you adjust the timeframe around....
yes
so again i ask , what is your point then?
What are you actually trying to debate here?
What is your case?

pin bars and dojis are pin bars and dojis coz the compunded patterns in the smaller frames make it so. less your talking abt tracing back to frames which are only one to four leg smaller which would then turn into engulfing or crows pattern

here we trade the 5 minutes, it takes 12 compound bar patterns to form the hourly benchmark, so a doji in the 4 hour or even the daily will look like you've missed the ride in our MO (well if volitility agrees lah). which goes back to my last query. what is the point that you're trying to drive, what is your case against the modus?

those who have practised here could certainly come up with many cases against the approach but its mainly due to personal limitations but none of us have found cases against the technicalities
  • #15,311
  • May 14, 2010 2:26am May 14, 2010 2:26am
Quoting jest1081
yes
so again i ask , what is your point then?
What are you actually trying to debate here?
What is your case?

pin bars and dojis are pin bars and dojis coz the compunded patterns in the smaller frames make it so. less your talking abt tracing back to frames which are only one to four leg smaller which would then turn into engulfing or crows pattern

here we trade the 5 minutes, it takes 12 compound bar patterns to form the hourly benchmark, so a doji in the 4 hour or even the daily will look like you've missed the ride in our MO (well...
i don't see a debate.

i made a reply to this quote from usdjpy

Quote

If there are differences in closing and opening prices between two different brokers, it will lead to different technical signals. How do we know which to follow? This is one of the fallacy, I think.



if you don't see the connection between the above quote and my initial response and further explanation then that's cool man. chillax.

Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,312
  • May 14, 2010 2:35am May 14, 2010 2:35am
i see, then i apologise.
but he has a point thus the use of indicators can prove futile due to these inconsistencies.
  • #15,313
  • Edited 2:50am May 14, 2010 2:39am | Edited 2:50am
Quoting auxesis
Textor,

Yes, I can see where Fti, is noting the base price structure as possible support, and I can see where he has referenced the distance of the original move and is using it as a measure to project extension, my question is concerning the "time measurement....
Hi auxesis

I'll try my interpretation three question marks:
Time - most probable time
Windows - most probable zone of anything
"for"
Support - probable support (50/50)

What do you see vertically (move price) it shows you the line horizontal (time).

Regards
Attached Image
  • #15,314
  • May 14, 2010 2:56am May 14, 2010 2:56am
Quoting nubcake
usdjpy : oh snap!

jest : consider this... looking at a 1 hr chart shows you whatever it does, right?...
it is true for any timeframe above 1h.
  • #15,315
  • May 14, 2010 3:03am May 14, 2010 3:03am
Quoting piccolo
it is true for any timeframe above 1h.
no, it is true of any timeframe. period. you might be thinking more along the lines of which tf is mostly used therefore most relevant etc etc and so on... another concept entirely and perhaps just as important in its own subtle ways
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,316
  • May 14, 2010 3:05am May 14, 2010 3:05am
Quoting jest1081
i see, then i apologise.
but he has a point thus the use of indicators can prove futile due to these inconsistencies.
it's all good.

his point was also my point which is now also your point... we are all on the same page (maybe just different paragraphs).

ok now my ed erts
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,317
  • May 14, 2010 3:29am May 14, 2010 3:29am
Quoting Gro
"One image is more than a thousand words" ... maybe two ... maybe someone help.
Hey Gro, was looking for a post and came across this... very interesting...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15034

How do you do this? Gann? Fib ratios? Does it allow future boxes?
One Mind, Any Market
  • #15,318
  • May 14, 2010 3:44am May 14, 2010 3:44am
Quoting jest1081
dont think you get my sway on the use of that inidcator. true range can be computed by purely eyeballing prices, make a quick computation and viola! nevertheless....

atr as it called is average true range, it allows you to see windows for entries and areas where price volitily could possibly reach a resting point. It creates an oppurtunity to scale accordingly esp in rescue operations (makes your entries less random). No im not mentioning the indicator type of use. elliot basics abcde waves. combine these two you could proly be able to guage/judge...
Hi Jest,
Point taken. Thanks.
I don't think we necessarily disagree about the use of Elliot wave or true range, it's just the difficulty of getting across what we mean in a forum. And my haphazard looking entries in my experiment has not shown the fact (more hard work needed!) I have tried very hard to apply all I have learned about TA and Elliot Wave - impulsive, reactive, extension in impulse, combination in reactive, alterncation, truncation, mono- and polywave, zigzag, flats and triangles, beginning and ending diagonals, runaway wave 4 and wave B, ......, in your example of abcde there are rules for projecting targets, in a converging triangle each wave is 0.618 of previous, etc. etc. then there are "gurus" who say wave E is often extended, others wave E is truncated failure. Not to say triangle can also be 1,2,3,4,5 in which case it is an ending diagonal and a terminating pattern. Sometimes the ending diagonal can print higher highs and higher lows (bear wave), aiya, so many rules, I have to take them all with a pinch of salt and work on position sizing.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,319
  • May 14, 2010 3:47am May 14, 2010 3:47am
Squared for the morning and booked 1.5% profit. No stomach for the battle of the 1.25 handle. Skew capped at level 8, 21 troops.

Regards,
Baifu
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  • #15,320
  • May 14, 2010 3:47am May 14, 2010 3:47am
Happy trading day everyone! Markets are on the move and this should be a great day to trade, with big US FA later. Just jumping in and out of trades since last night, trying to decide if the euro is about to correct. Bias is down until proven otherwise. Trade well everyone!

Auxesis, was wondering if the answer to your questions has to do with Gann fans or fibo zones? I don't use them because I am not convinced that time plays a significant role these days, but of course, that may be wrong. I do not want to introduce TA tools here that I am unfamiliar with, but perhaps the concepts used in these tools are helpful. When I look at the posted chart, I just see the market squaring up the sharp moves up, so not sure of the time reference.
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