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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,281
  • May 13, 2010 3:48pm May 13, 2010 3:48pm
On May 7 and May 10 EUR hourly trend was up, I traded EUR bear profitably on both days. I cannot post charts because Oanda does not keep long history but I will post the stitched together blotters.

If I could post charts you would see my entries look as random and bad (serious, not trying to be sarcastic) as the other charts posted for today and yesterday, but position sizing saved the day. I post my experiments hoping to see more work on skew and position sizing discussed, I am just learning from doing day by day. One feedback: if I high skew to level 10/11, I should increase number of troops from 500 to 1000, alternatively lower highest skew level to 7 or 8 max.

Regards,
Baifu
Edit: forgot to say May 7 uses 100 troops, May 10 500 troops
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  • #15,282
  • May 13, 2010 3:53pm May 13, 2010 3:53pm
Quoting Zoran
The law of vibration... who has a good understanding of it?
this is ok http://gannslawofvibration.com/Home_Page.html
  • #15,283
  • May 13, 2010 4:21pm May 13, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,
This will be erased when I am finished with it.
You wanna dance .
watch you chart and learn.

Time window for selling EUR/USD opens now.
watching levels 1.4825/00
Now waiting for GBP/USD to top out.
If no one is watching I shall stop commentary.
If watching just write watching in reply then delete.
its going to be long night here.
ossible window at 1.4840/55
sold level 1 at 1.4833
Noted zoran and Northpro.
notime to answer now, daancing

now preparing attack sequence level 2
attck sequense level 2 abandoned.
toping of...
What was the exact meaning of "time window" referenced here.
  • #15,284
  • May 13, 2010 4:29pm May 13, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting jest1081
btw
based from your charts, id suggest you do some researh on atr and a little low level elliot would help too. cheers
Can you be more specific about what kind of research on atr? I have done the usual on atr of different time frames, diffferent currency pairs, different times of day, Asian, Eurpean and American sessions, overlap atr envelope (Keltner Channel?) with standard deviation envelope (Bollinger Bands) to graphically depict consolidation (Keltner spills outside Bollinger because atr uses H/L and Std Dev uses Close). Oops, watch it, too much TA talk

What is low level Elliot? I have read Prechter and Frost several times, Poser (could never finish) and Glenn Neely (bits are helpful for reading wave real time), counted EOD waves for major indices from the dawn of time (as available in Yahoo data) and have always kept watch on intraday wave formations. Obviously it hasn't helped me

I guess I do not have as high esteem on the TA thingy, might just be my personal failure. Right now it's position sizing / skew for me.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,285
  • May 13, 2010 4:58pm May 13, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting M-H Trader
this is ok http://gannslawofvibration.com/Home_Page.html
Yes, I've just finished reading it. On the face of it, this person seems to have a good understand of the laws of vibration. However, he is selling a book. Has anyone read this book?
  • #15,286
  • Edited 5:26pm May 13, 2010 5:01pm | Edited 5:26pm
Quoting auxesis
What was the exact meaning of "time window" referenced here.
I believe he answered that in some other posts. If my memory serves me right, he mentioned time windows are "waves"??

Check this post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ow#post1751193
  • #15,287
  • May 13, 2010 5:03pm May 13, 2010 5:03pm
Quoting auxesis
What was the exact meaning of "time window" referenced here.
Euro zone closing hours ? Since most MMs prefer to end their day flat thus liquidation of positions or any kind of portfolio risk adjustments should occur around those hours. Based on the time of the posting.

Just my guess.
  • #15,288
  • May 13, 2010 5:07pm May 13, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting auxesis
What was the exact meaning of "time window" referenced here.
Hi Auxesis
I always took it to mean "opening"..ie: window of opportunity
  • #15,289
  • May 13, 2010 6:12pm May 13, 2010 6:12pm
Zoran's original chart has Fti's notes saved, his time window marks an area of price and time where Fti anticipates possible support, my question is how exactly is this time window figured and does it pertain to the current discussion of vibration? Is it derived from TA or something else? I visualize vibration as movement between two extremes.

Waves? Possible ending/reversal areas? Possible, I remember Fti, mentioning time windows closing as well.

Probable hours of activity? Possible see above.

Window of opportunity.Again, if we are trading a reaction of current PA, is this predictive?

regards,
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  • #15,290
  • May 13, 2010 7:54pm May 13, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting Gro
Christ declare the coming Star of Bethlehem or the...
is this from the bible? way cool!! it's already explaining relativity
  • #15,291
  • May 13, 2010 8:00pm May 13, 2010 8:00pm
Quoting auxesis
Zoran's original chart has Fti's notes saved, his time window marks an area of price and time where Fti anticipates possible support, my question is how exactly is this time window figured and does it pertain to the current discussion of vibration? Is it derived from TA or something else? I visualize vibration as movement between two extremes.

Waves? Possible ending/reversal areas? Possible, I remember Fti, mentioning time windows closing as well.

Probable hours of activity? Possible see above.

Window of opportunity.Again,...
Im pretty sure he just means when the market is consolidating till its next move.
  • #15,292
  • May 13, 2010 8:21pm May 13, 2010 8:21pm
you lot could find meaning in a bird crapping from a tree
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,293
  • May 13, 2010 8:24pm May 13, 2010 8:24pm
Quoting nubcake
you lot could find meaning in a bird crapping from a tree
hmm, this bird really crap
  • #15,294
  • May 13, 2010 9:11pm May 13, 2010 9:11pm
Quoting auxesis
Zoran's original chart has Fti's notes saved, his time window marks an area of price and time where Fti anticipates possible support, my question is how exactly is this time window figured and does it pertain to the current discussion of vibration? Is it derived from TA or something else? I visualize vibration as movement between two extremes.

[i]Waves?...
Hi Auxesis,

You wrote: "How is this area defined?"

See left from the chart, previous support.
May be in this way.

Rgs,

Textor
  • #15,295
  • May 13, 2010 9:27pm May 13, 2010 9:27pm
Quoting imjscn
hmm, this bird really crap
no really, i want whatever it is you lot are on because it seems to be some a-grade stuff. better than sniffing pens and glue fo sho!
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #15,296
  • Edited 10:38pm May 13, 2010 10:14pm | Edited 10:38pm
Quoting fti
using a phi spiral creates a constant growth spiral from a point.
Whereas using pi skews breaks the circular leg price range and creates a spiral initiating from a "range window" .In doing so, price and volitility ( determined by visual observation of the leg of run from the bar chart.) becomes a component to the skew. This is akin to the using ATR of a run leg of a trend ( note: run leg and not bar range). And the spiral growth becomes a function of the windowed range. To do this requires much capitalisation.

This can also be constructed...
This is one of my favorite posts in the thread, much to digest.............. is the time window from earlier posts related to this range window discussed here as a starting point or base to calculate from?
  • #15,297
  • Edited 11:22pm May 13, 2010 10:29pm | Edited 11:22pm
Textor,

Yes, I can see where Fti, is noting the base price structure as possible support, and I can see where he has referenced the distance of the original move and is using it as a measure to project extension, my question is concerning the "time measurement. Is it an actual calculation or just an approximate box placed at the desired support level, and if that why label it as a time window?

As I went through the thread, I have formed what I thought was the correct view, but would like to hear what others think, or if these questions were relevant to anyone's understanding of the material presented. If volatility is measured in terms of distance and time traveled, these two may be inter- linked.

And, is this on the verge of predictive?

I think when we boil it down to the base elements of trading, we find that PA like all things is in motion or vibrates, as it moves up and down. We know that at any moment price can do what ever it wants to, but when it's in a normal state of movement ( this normalcy is figured in the "now", i.e. today's normal may be different that yesterdays) Price moves or vibrates in a rhythm. Which we see as the distance and time of a leg, the prefect trade would be to follow price on it's to and fro path as it makes the same rhythmic pulse, but we also know that it seldom follows that same beat very long. We enter with the idea of riding the next move, taking our clues from the prior, dancing the rhythm, but like any good dancer we follow the lead of our partner. To summarize, I think Gann when mentioning the law of vibration, is referring to the ability to calculate or better feel/measure the current markets pulse or rhythm... which would be a dynamic measure of the market's "now" not a static measure that would try to force the market into a predetermined math.

Our dancing comes into play as price likes to take bigger, smaller or reverse steps, forcing us to reposition in order to continue.

Check back in a few days, wishing all here a great end to the week and a great weekend.

regards
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  • #15,298
  • Edited May 14, 2010 2:32am May 13, 2010 11:10pm | Edited May 14, 2010 2:32am
Quoting Baifu
Can you be more specific about what kind of research on atr? I have done the usual on atr of different time frames, diffferent currency pairs, different times of day, Asian, Eurpean and American sessions, overlap atr envelope (Keltner Channel?) with standard deviation envelope (Bollinger Bands) to graphically depict consolidation (Keltner spills outside Bollinger because atr uses H/L and Std Dev uses Close). Oops, watch it, too much TA talk

What is low level Elliot? I have read Prechter and Frost several times, Poser (could never finish) and...
dont think you get my sway on the use of that inidcator. true range can be computed by purely eyeballing prices, make a quick computation and viola! nevertheless....

atr as it called is average true range, it allows you to see windows for entries and areas where price volitily could possibly reach a resting point. It creates an oppurtunity to scale accordingly esp in rescue operations (makes your entries less random). No im not mentioning the indicator type of use. elliot basics abcde waves. combine these two you could proly be able to guage/judge how far a swing leg could proly last, it helps you in instance when you need to scale out of an attack.

plus it hink you may have formed a skewed view. TA is essential but becomes useless when traded upon predictive laws. prices forms and volitility always gives you clues on market psychology.

take this for example, in an uptrend, but you are conducting a rescue ops, on a C wave, thus you have plan your troops in such a way that your rescue skews will be able to trade up to wave E. thus here is the plan (well my plan),

1. build a rescue plan for wave D,
2. once D come into motion, as price retraces, regress the skew downwards and take out much injured personels i could
3. plan a new skew in case wave E comes into motion, else continue covering as prices move down, if this goes well enough you could even be in the running to plan a flip operation.

this is why rescues are long and strenous and attacks swift and desicive

cheers.

Aux,

i remember fti mentioning something. No longer than 35 minutes thats 7 bars, dont think theres too much abt it. the time window its proly explained on market structure and you know the basic dealing mechanics. areas where they re-distribute orders and level the book etc, thus creating a small legging in prices.
  • #15,299
  • May 13, 2010 11:33pm May 13, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting jest1081

Aux,

i remember fti mentioning something. No longer than 35 minutes thats 7 bars, dont think theres too much abt it. the time window its proly explained on market structure and you know the basic dealing mechanics. areas where they re-distribute orders and level the book etc, thus creating a small legging in prices.
Yes, I remember when he talked about the 7 bar timing, although I don't think it was meant to be a hard and fast rule, I believe he wanted to try to get everyone into a mental timing which was appropriate for the 5min bar time frame. There's more there that could be hashed out on that specific time amount, but do you see any comparison between 35 minutes/7 bars and the average trade time by Gann as reported in the newspaper article?
  • #15,300
  • May 13, 2010 11:37pm May 13, 2010 11:37pm
Quoting auxesis
Yes, I remember when he talked about the 7 bar timing, although I don't think it was meant to be a hard and fast rule, I believe he wanted to try to get everyone into a mental timing which was appropriate for the 5min bar time frame. There's more there that could be hashed out on that specific time amount, but do you see any comparison between 35 minutes/7 bars and the average trade time by Gann as reported in the newspaper article?
i havent got to read it coz its been blocked but ive read from fti that ganns average time was not more than 20 minutes?

still think support areas fti noted is based on market structure, pivot levels which all dealers take note of while he calls it support it may also not neccesarily form one, thus the time window given to determine market reaction.
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