GBP/CAD Historical Low | Forex Factory

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GBP/CAD Historical Low

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 27, 2010 2:16am Feb 27, 2010 2:16am
Hi All,

I'm just browsing through my charts looking at next week and I noticed that this pair has made a historical low on the monthly!
I have never traded this pair or taken notice of it but my charts on this pair date back to 12/2001 and it has formed a new low.

I'm not an indicator type of person but I brought up RSI,MacD,stochastics and CCI on the monthly and noticed that the new low is not confirmed by any of them.

Also seems like GBP may be due for a bounce with some positive data coming out Friday even though price action would suggest the contrary.

I'm pretty much a newbie trader, 6 months of experience only, but this pair did bounce 200 pips on the 8 hourly last Wednesday only to be hammered back down again.

Gut feeling suggest a small GBP recovery aided by positive data and the majority being on the short side.

Any opinions or confirmations of my thinking or am I just being too optimistic?
Also think EUR/GBP is going back down looking at the way the 8 hourly closed on Friday with a nice pin nose.
Adds to my hypothesis...
  • #2
  • Feb 27, 2010 3:10am Feb 27, 2010 3:10am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Hi Ozpips

I don't trade this pair either, and I'm relatively new to trading also, but have taken to looking through the weekly chart every weekend to scout for long term opportunities.

Our trading style also appears familiar as I also view the news coming out for the week, and try to tie this with where there 'might' be a potential turning point in a currency pair's rise or fall, plus, I'm not an indicator type of person either but am beginning to take a look into the moving averages tool to see if that can make me a better trader.

The only question I'm asking myself on GBP/CAD is how low can it go, considering there's no historical low to view as a precedent.

I'm looking to view PA on this on Sunday/Monday before going long on this one, in case a new low for this pair is still 300 pips away. Both the weekly and monthly candles on this are pretty bearish, but next week could indeed be the week it turns.

Watching quite closely, good luck for the week ahead.

i

Quoting ozpips
Hi All,

I'm just browsing through my charts looking at next week and I noticed that this pair has made a historical low on the monthly!
I have never traded this pair or taken notice of it but my charts on this pair date back to 12/2001 and it has formed a new low.

I'm not an indicator type of person but I brought up RSI,MacD,stochastics and CCI on the monthly and noticed that the new low is not confirmed by any of them.

Also seems like GBP may be due for a bounce with some positive data coming out Friday even though price action would suggest...
  • #3
  • Feb 27, 2010 7:04am Feb 27, 2010 7:04am
Hey Ibka,

Perhaps a Bank of Canada intervention ala SNB !
Yes agreed with it looking very bearish and how low will it go.
I suppose watch GBP across the board,if it rallies so too will all it's crosses.
Interesting on the daily when it made it's previous new low on the 20/02 it rallied some 300 pips over the next 2 days.
1.6000 could be the line in the sand?
  • #4
  • Feb 27, 2010 7:54am Feb 27, 2010 7:54am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
With Friday's candle being so bearish, and us being at the end of the month, would be surprised if we suddenly do a 300 pip sprint from this point on Monday.

Not sure what the BoC's history is on interventions but, if they don't, I wouldn't like to guess where the end of this record breaking bearish run is going to be plus, with most traders shorting cable like there's no tomorrow, not sure how safe it is to expect cable to 'rally' - 'retracement' sounds safer at the moment rather than a rally, unless, of course the MPC decides to pull a fast one and raise interest rates to moderate inflation which has risen over the past few months. Highly unlikely, but not beyond the MPC I think.
i





Quoting ozpips
Hey Ibka,

Perhaps a Bank of Canada intervention ala SNB !
Yes agreed with it looking very bearish and how low will it go.
I suppose watch GBP across the board,if it rallies so too will all it's crosses.
Interesting on the daily when it made it's previous new low on the 20/02 it rallied some 300 pips over the next 2 days.
1.6000 could be the line in the sand?
  • #5
  • Feb 27, 2010 6:05pm Feb 27, 2010 6:05pm
This is not even close to historical low...
Better look for more precise data feed.

Historical low was made in 1985 during "2nd oil crisis".
GC hit 14580 then make 10k pips in only three years.
How great speculation was made on greenback back those days !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad_y.png Size: 9 KB
  • #6
  • Feb 27, 2010 8:09pm Feb 27, 2010 8:09pm
Thanks for the info 5ysfx, my charts don't go back that far on this particular pair so that is good to know.
Cheers..
  • #7
  • Feb 28, 2010 12:46am Feb 28, 2010 12:46am
This is a really interesting thread. Does any one have any charts to post on a possible retracement up? Or does anyone know of any Canadian Bank intervention?

Thanks heaps for any posts from anyone...I am still fairly new to forex so I appreciate it!
  • #8
  • Feb 28, 2010 11:15am Feb 28, 2010 11:15am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Hiya

Could you kindly point me in the direction of where you got that chart from, as mine doesn't go that far either.

For some reason, I had down 1.485 as a point to look for a turn, but now you've mentioned it's been down to 1.45 - that changes things, though I wouldn't bank on a further 1,500 pip drop over the next month without a slight retracement considering we've just dropped 1,000 pips in February (although absolutely nothing is impossible so don't take anything I say as gospel...).

i

Quoting 5ysfx
This is not even close to historical low...
Better look for more precise data feed.

Historical low was made in 1985 during "2nd oil crisis".
GC hit 14580 then make 10k pips in only three years.
How great speculation was made on greenback back those days !
  • #9
  • Feb 28, 2010 11:28am Feb 28, 2010 11:28am
Hi i know only this data feed because i am from Poland .
Could not find anything better on the web.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=216475
if u need help to understand something just tell me.

Cheers

Quoting IbkA
Hiya

Could you kindly point me in the direction of where you got that chart from, as mine doesn't go that far either.

For some reason, I had down 1.485 as a point to look for a turn, but now you've mentioned it's been down to 1.45 - that changes things, though I wouldn't bank on a further 1,500 pip drop over the next month without a slight retracement considering we've just dropped 1,000 pips in February (although absolutely nothing is impossible so don't take anything I say as gospel...).

i
  • #10
  • Edited 10:12pm Feb 28, 2010 3:52pm | Edited 10:12pm
For me now it (I hope) should bounce off the trendline started last year in january at 1.6728 until where it is now. Lets hope for at least another really big bounce anyway before it lets us get in lower!
  • #11
  • Mar 1, 2010 6:33am Mar 1, 2010 6:33am
How horribly wrong was my thinking here?
400 pip drop in the last 14 hours.
Picking a direction and then flipping it over seems to work so well in Forex!!
  • #12
  • Mar 1, 2010 3:35pm Mar 1, 2010 3:35pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Just seen this.

Not touching this pair until I'm SURE it has bottomed out.

Shame I didn't put in a short when the market opened having ruled out a 300 pip rally, plus with last month's and last Friday's daily candle being so bearish.

Daily candle looking terribly bearish so, bar a sudden buying of pound across the board, again a rally seems unlikely - but not impossible.

Ironically, the GBP/USD's retraced almost 50% following today's fall; this pair's not recovered anything yet - unless it's saving this for tomorrow.

Since it might be too late to short this pair in case it retraces from here, might be best to see how much lower they take this in Asia before considering going long. I don't trade Asia session so tomorrow's another day.

Good luck all.

i



Quoting 5ysfx
Hi i know only this data feed because i am from Poland .
Could not find anything better on the web.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=216475
if u need help to understand something just tell me.

Cheers
  • #13
  • May 13, 2010 5:11pm May 13, 2010 5:11pm
I guess its not that far from an all time low now.....shows no signs of stopping though to my dismay (that was a huge consolidation period I guess....figured it had bottomed).
  • #14
  • May 13, 2010 6:21pm May 13, 2010 6:21pm
D supp break.

I'm bear with TPP @ 4780

Loonie love affair still strong for now
  • #15
  • Jun 21, 2010 2:36am Jun 21, 2010 2:36am
http://askafo.com/apic/2162010gc-4d6fg46s4fgs4dfg.PNG

I see the uptrend today for this pair ~!
Good point for sell is 1.5205.10 if he break 1.5201
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #16
  • Jun 22, 2010 4:23am Jun 22, 2010 4:23am
http://askafo.com/apic/2262010gc-s6546d5fg46dhh.PNG
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #17
  • Jul 22, 2010 5:26am Jul 22, 2010 5:26am
I just went long at 5908 aiming for 70pips....... I love trading this pair, I'm surprised to see not many people trade pound cad.
  • #18
  • Oct 7, 2010 11:38am Oct 7, 2010 11:38am
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/m0...9p9qbkp5zi.gif
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #19
  • Dec 2, 2012 10:24pm Dec 2, 2012 10:24pm
this pair is once again stuck in a range
  • #20
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:48am Dec 3, 2012 9:48am
Yep, firmly range-bound...
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