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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,321
  • May 12, 2010 8:01pm May 12, 2010 8:01pm
FOTO/DUCE: I read this today & it caused me to file it.

google: babpips.com when screen comes up you should get "newest posts" on blogs page. Hit : currency currents.
Basically, gives a M chart with gold/oil ratio line wrt aud/us
Bottom line: g/r ratio goes up- comdolls go down & vicey-versey.

DUCE: thanks for the chart 14/3/5 jumped out @me & now shall compare its action wrt my 8/3/3.

My D/W/M charts are not aligning (latter 2 show down; but, D suggests bull). 'Sumtin no right' Metinks to just make scalp pips ( ride the elevator) for now.

DUCE; ya may wanna consider running for leader of the "GREEN" Party with all the rewards for your efforts of late!

Going to focus E/CAD: looks like this one good for a few. Also, OZ/KIWI (there appears to be an ascending triangle in a down trend on the D).
  • #3,322
  • May 12, 2010 9:41pm May 12, 2010 9:41pm
Quoting yeri
@duce: i see you are quite fammiliar with this pair, and i allready leave this pair for 6 month and i start this pair from zero again right now.
i need some advice :
1. if this pair so reactive to news release?
2. can this pair goes to 0.99xx level again?

i want to start to trade this pair again, but before i start to jump into this pair again i want to gather as many information as i can. i hope you can help me with this.
1. oil up, cad up. oil down, cad down.
2. yes. pull up a daily chart. trend has been down all year. we are in a defined down trend channel, regardless of the up spikes we get from time to time. Until the Canadian government show everyone the truth about what's going on up here, the cad will maintain strength. But part of that strength is due to the Euro and USD global weekness. Not because we're any smarter financially.

P.S. By the way...study your charts and exercise great, not good, but GREAT money management skills. This won't make you a tonne of money, but it will help you keep your money a little while longer.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,323
  • May 12, 2010 9:54pm May 12, 2010 9:54pm
Scarecru, I haven't always been green. But it does feel good when you guess right. Keep posting. I enjoy your insight.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,324
  • May 12, 2010 10:09pm May 12, 2010 10:09pm
Quoting yeri
@duce: i see you are quite fammiliar with this pair, and i allready leave this pair for 6 month and i start this pair from zero again right now.
i need some advice :
1. if this pair so reactive to news release?
2. can this pair goes to 0.99xx level again?

i want to start to trade this pair again, but before i start to jump into this pair again i want to gather as many information as i can. i hope you can help me with this.
Psychology terms this the "enabling ploy": the syntax is right; however, changes are made to spelling & grammar. This makes you feel superior- which is the desired condition. The hook & bait are set..... you just have to bite!
"..before i start to jump..........................help me with this"!
MY answer to YERI would be : study the charts M/W/D AND read the past 6 months posts that are available.

However; my knowledge to answer your queries ( AND I DO NOT SPEAK FOR DUCE AND DUCE IS NOT AWARE OF MY RESPONSE) is Yes & Yes.
Just don't know when for your #2 querie.
  • #3,325
  • May 12, 2010 10:25pm May 12, 2010 10:25pm
Quoting Duce
Scarecru, I haven't always been green. But it does feel good when you guess right. Keep posting. I enjoy your insight.
RIGHT BACK AT YOU

Rest assurred that I shall apply 14/3/5 to my analysis.

Keep pipping positive. I trust other stuff was negative?
  • #3,326
  • May 13, 2010 12:08am May 13, 2010 12:08am
@duce : about the money management, i was absolutely agree with you, i have been strict with my money management from my 1st month of trading after i lost some of my money just because my miss calculation.


@Scarecru : reading 6 month post is hard for me, but i will do my best, from today i will be active in this thread i hope you all can acept me here .

i hope next week i can take my first transaction at this pair, so i have 1 week to analyze before i jump into this pair.

btw guys i see today this pair is allready down 30 pips. and still going down. there is no big news for Canada for the rest of this week, tommorow there is 3 big news for US, i will absolutely look for this news and see for the respond for this pair.
  • #3,327
  • May 13, 2010 10:08am May 13, 2010 10:08am
For whatever it is worth, I am trading strictly off the weekly charts now as this week confirms sustained EURO/USD weakness big time. (A falling Euro remains deflationary in the US.) To avoid all the market volatility, after hours stop running by the currency manipulators, and to simply be able to sleep at night with open posiitons.

How the markets finally resolve the inflation/deflation argument going on may be helped by personal experience. I do not know about others, but I am getting quite a few phone calls from firms that are pushing the buy commodity sales pitch pretty agressively. The public is head over heels into the inflation is inevitable outcome prognoticators.
For a contrarian the fire whistle is being blasted.
I am not writting off last weeks equity market occurrence as a glitch. Bullshit. If there where buyers waiting in the wings for a selloff to get on board a Bull market train, they were certainly absent that day.

What the trigger for commodity weakness to come is anyones guess, but there is one big pile of very dry brush to burn. Government intervention is inevitable because the upcoming US election ensures that to be the case.
The downside in this persons opinion for USD/CAD is limited as a result of this thinking and the upside has more potential. We may well get stuck in a trading range, as government intervention mitigates deflationary pressures.

What will be telling is if the market maintains a slight premium for the USD over the CAD by staying North of parity. Each trader can think through those implications for themselves.

On another note.
As to the mood of America, most Americans think that California is the first state to secede from the Union since the Civil War times. There are no American taxpaying citizens left residing to pay the bill, so California is attempting to find handouts from Mexico.
Trouble is Mexicans don't want Californians either.
Frankly have had enough of the political correctness crowd and am willing to throw a few myself.
Enforce the god dam laws. Anyone who has traveled to other countries knows full well, you better have your papers in order. Or off to jail you go.
Brain dead Saps are in Congress and the Whitehouse.
  • #3,328
  • Edited 11:25am May 13, 2010 11:10am | Edited 11:25am
We are reaching a sigificant resistance level for USD Index. What to watch for is how the market responds to the 86.00 level. It is a 2 std deviation upper bollinger band of the EMA's on my charts. Also a resistance level area from 2009.

Next week if that level is promptly broken the move to 1.20 on EURO/USD will come sooner then people expect. If it becomes solid resistance then we are entering another range bound area while the market waits for results in Europe to play out. The market may give the EURO the benefit of the doubt. The probability is, no one waits for the house to burn down while they are in it. So exiting the EURO will be the higher probability trade.

A pyramiding of position is warranted with a clean break of the aforementioned level. As has been said it takes courage to be a pig.

If you think my posts are too strong, think about what the stop runners have been doing to your account. They being backed by soverign reserves large enough to move the market. While Mr. Geitner blathers on.
  • #3,329
  • May 13, 2010 2:20pm May 13, 2010 2:20pm
I am long from 1.0150 and the candle formation on the daily is showing a clear sign of a move up.

Couple this with EU chart where a significant level is breached and closed below. I think we can see a move up to 1.0437 if not 1.07xx in the coming two weeks.

My stop below 1.01
  • #3,330
  • May 13, 2010 3:11pm May 13, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting neo1599
I am long from 1.0150 and the candle formation on the daily is showing a clear sign of a move up.

Couple this with EU chart where a significant level is breached and closed below. I think we can see a move up to 1.0437 if not 1.07xx in the coming two weeks.

My stop below 1.01
Were you looking over my shoulder? That's my game plan too but i moved my SL to BE. I'd like to TP at 1.0411, 1.0563 and 1.0744. I've posted those numbers before, along with a few others.

But we still need confirmation.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,331
  • May 13, 2010 3:28pm May 13, 2010 3:28pm
Quoting Duce
Were you looking over my shoulder? That's my game plan too but i moved my SL to BE. I'd like to TP at 1.0411, 1.0563 and 1.0744. I've posted those numbers before, along with a few others.

But we still need confirmation.
I am looking at the 1.0224(daily close above) number for confirmation according to tech analysis.

My system says confirmation for a move up for tomorrow if we go above 1.0254.
  • #3,332
  • May 13, 2010 3:36pm May 13, 2010 3:36pm
I have 1.0234
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,333
  • May 13, 2010 3:40pm May 13, 2010 3:40pm
BP is spilling 200K gallons a day into the Gulf of Mexico, and the market price for oil is going down. Talk about a scam, let alone an ecological disaster. If the air doesn't kill us, the water eventually will.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #3,334
  • May 13, 2010 3:43pm May 13, 2010 3:43pm
1.0437 is nice point for TP
  • #3,335
  • May 13, 2010 3:51pm May 13, 2010 3:51pm
Quoting Duce
BP is spilling 200K gallons a day into the Gulf of Mexico, and the market price for oil is going down. Talk about a scam, let alone an ecological disaster. If the air doesn't kill us, the water eventually will.
I have a feeling there is something happening under the surface of all this. May even be a new viable and economical energy source.

^^^plain speculation on my part. I am not willing to touch oil at the moment.

I am just wondering why all my capital is tied up. Would have loved to take a much bigger position on UCAD. The risk-reward ratio is brilliant.

Where is everyone from? I am asking cuz I am guessing every1 has a day job or business. Would be nice to meet someone related to my business in other countries. I am from India. Into Metal trading(physical), Import and export.
  • #3,336
  • May 13, 2010 6:40pm May 13, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting yeri
@duce :

@Scarecru : reading 6 month post is hard for me, but i will do my best, from today i will be active in this thread i hope you all can acept me here .
.
yeri:if the main players of this thread accepted my ramblings; you shall be embraced with open arms by them.

Read the posts of the BIG BOYS (FOTO. DUCE & VENGE) this should cut down on the crap-time. That is where I get most of my info.

I only do fx PT (between patients @ my clinic) this may be why there might be a disturbing trend developing as to losing trades & patient mortality.
  • #3,337
  • May 13, 2010 7:01pm May 13, 2010 7:01pm
Quoting Scarecru
yeri:if the main players of this thread accepted my ramblings; you shall be embraced with open arms by them.

Read the posts of the BIG BOYS (FOTO. DUCE & VENGE) this should cut down on the crap-time. That is where I get most of my info.

I only do fx PT (between patients @ my clinic) this may be why there might be a disturbing trend developing as to losing trades & patient mortality.
What do you practice?
  • #3,338
  • May 13, 2010 7:41pm May 13, 2010 7:41pm
I mentioned ( & forwarded blog info) yesterday,re: gold/oil ratio & effects on comm$.

Today,reading scotiabank, they mentioned that the -ve correlation between gold & US$ has broken. My take is balance has shifted to risk-aversion. They also released info re: Canadian consumer debt.

I ( the prophet of parity) am long US/CAD & am pip short at present.
Based on my chart reads yesterday & your posts #3327/8 I shall remain long ( as well as bearish Euro).Have a TPP @ 1.2330 on the E.
Remember the G/A fable: it appears to be playing out in "real-time" now!

Your imput has given me a new way to interpret my tek analysis wrt the news provided daily.

I appreciate the fact that you you put forth your educated views with your own $$$$ instead of the televised /publicized (& I am supposing coerced) purveyors of media manipulative data.

Please keep these superlative posts coming!
  • #3,339
  • May 13, 2010 7:47pm May 13, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting neo1599
I am long from 1.0150 and the candle formation on the daily is showing a clear sign of a move up.

Couple this with EU chart where a significant level is breached and closed below. I think we can see a move up to 1.0437 if not 1.07xx in the coming two weeks.

My stop below 1.01
Hope you be right. I B long ( & red pips for now).

Green pips to you
  • #3,340
  • May 13, 2010 8:11pm May 13, 2010 8:11pm
Quoting Saxon
What do you practice?
Saxon: you with a malpractice insurance co?
PM me (don't wish this on public forum).
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