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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,261
  • May 13, 2010 6:15am May 13, 2010 6:15am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Baifu, very nice work, very tiring also, no ? Like you said, what if it doesn't come back ? That story need to have an ending nonetheless.
Isn't the ending 10% of account equity? I think that's usually what FTI has posted. I'm still reading so not sure .

One must definitely have an ending or uncle point or we fall into the trap of adding onto losers and get death trades.
  • #15,262
  • May 13, 2010 6:15am May 13, 2010 6:15am
Quoting Baifu
Thanks jest. I was replying to your post while your were deleting it I was going to say you are not rude at all, I welcome all critique. And thanks for your thoughtful post on risk.

I am risk adverse by temperament. The point of my experiment:

1) if we say TA has no predictive power why do we still cling to it (unknowingly). I agree my entries look random and bad, in hindsight. I can assure you in real time, when chart patterns are forming and mutating, it is not so apparent. My search is to find a method, first never be defeated, then...
Hi Baifu,

In your charts I see that you need PATIENCE, and yes, for patience you need time.
Patience to enter and much more patience, if needed, to rescue.

If you see the price action as "movements", as " waves",
you have to give them time and space to develop.

Yes, in hindsight is easy......

Rgs,

Textor
  • #15,263
  • May 13, 2010 6:21am May 13, 2010 6:21am
Quoting jest1081
ok guys, just wanna share some things with further regards to risk.

have tabulated some charts and i would loike to share it with you guys how you could variably determine your risk measures.

some data collated since Jan 07
These are the chances of the possible drawdowns you may face based on daily movement of eurusd, the chances that you will hit a >200 pip DD is 4.7% which would be quite sound. Thus i reckon skew progression should at least be this big.

>100 --- 26.4%
>125 --- 17.4%
>150 --- 11.6%
>175 --- 7.8%
>200 --- 4.7%

lets...
Thanks.
I found that leverage is one of the devils,too.
I am not leveraging at the time.
-That is a right that I believe
we need to earn-
But then to make a living from this
you need plenty of funds.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #15,264
  • May 13, 2010 6:25am May 13, 2010 6:25am
Quoting jest1081
ok guys, just wanna share some things with further regards to risk.

have tabulated some charts and i would loike to share it with you guys how you could variably determine your risk measures.

some data collated since Jan 07
These are the chances of the possible drawdowns you may face based on daily movement of eurusd, the chances that you will hit a >200 pip DD is 4.7% which would be quite sound. Thus i reckon skew progression should at least be this big.

>100 --- 26.4%
>125 --- 17.4%
>150 --- 11.6%
>175 --- 7.8%
>200 ---...
200 pips ride in red when "fully loaded" seems far fetched but then again we have seen 200 pip 5min candles. It's better to be beyond defeat.
  • #15,265
  • May 13, 2010 6:30am May 13, 2010 6:30am
Quoting Baifu
You are talking about somebody else I only post in this thread.

I never hedge, one instrument, one direction, cannot walk and chew gum at the same time
how are you not hedged when at one side youre buying eur and the other youre selling.

unless im missing something from your charted arrows. would be easier to see your overall positioning with a trade blotter instead. cheers!

btw
based from your charts, id suggest you do some researh on atr and a little low level elliot would help too. cheers

piccolo, yesh. hehe

Quote
But then to make a living from this
you need plenty of funds.
lusan, true true
  • #15,266
  • May 13, 2010 6:35am May 13, 2010 6:35am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Baifu, very nice work, very tiring also, no ? Like you said, what if it doesn't come back ? That story need to have an ending nonetheless.
For me it is less tiring than watching multiple pairs and flipping. I reckon if I cannot drive by autopilot I might as well keep my hands on the wheel and foot on the pedal. I am only at it 2-4 hours at a stretch, with mid day break. Afternoon is more toned down as clock time runs out.

The Law of Motion and the Principle of Vibration is the philosophy behind this method. But there will always be one time when trend changes and despite vibrations market does not re-visit your entry zone. In my present experiment I have experienced several instances of trading against intraday trend all session and end with positive book (I remember also ending up one time with negative pip and positive PnL), position sizing is the key and a work in progress.

Antidote? Max loss rules, trading account a very small fraction of equity, ........., it's alright to lose sometimes provided aggregate win is larger than aggregate loss.

Regards,
Baifu

Edit- entering a scout/spy, 15 min counter trend looks ending, but I can be very wrong. Just 1 troop
  • #15,267
  • May 13, 2010 6:46am May 13, 2010 6:46am
Happy trading day everyone! Some interesting posts today, just finished reading them after some good trades earlier at London open. Traded the GBP/$ and the E/J today, both south and am now on the sidelines waiting to see if the south move will continue or if the NY session will square the London move.

Some here have a much higher tollerance for being down in a trade than I have, since my largest mental stop this week has been 25 pips, and can't even imagine being down 100 or 200 pips. Would much rather take the 25 pip hit and then ride it the other way for the 75-175 pips.

Back to work for me. Good trading everyone!
  • #15,268
  • May 13, 2010 6:47am May 13, 2010 6:47am
Quoting luSan
.....
But then to make a living from this
you need plenty of funds.
Hi Lusan,

Yes, you need capital in this play. Many here forget this "little" point.
Are guided by an ATM mentality.

If you started a new business, beside success will, you have to bring also your capital ......

Textor
  • #15,269
  • May 13, 2010 6:49am May 13, 2010 6:49am
Quoting GEfx
Happy trading day everyone! Some interesting posts today, just finished reading them after some good trades earlier at London open. Traded the GBP/$ and the E/J today, both south and am now on the sidelines waiting to see if the south move will continue or if the NY session will square the London move.

Some here have a much higher tollerance for being down in a trade than I have, since my largest mental stop this week has been 25 pips, and can't even imagine being down 100 or 200 pips. Would much rather take the 25 pip hit and then ride it the...
just reverting to what piccolo mentioned. have you ever seen short term candles that never ends? ones that makes traders cry, scream, commit suicide, whatever? hehehe.

mnniwaes grats on bagging the pips
  • #15,270
  • Edited 7:25am May 13, 2010 7:03am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting jest1081
how are you not hedged when at one side youre buying eur and the other youre selling.

unless im missing something from your charted arrows. would be easier to see your overall positioning with a trade blotter instead. cheers!

btw
based from your charts, id suggest you do some researh on atr and a little low level elliot would help too. cheers

piccolo, yesh. hehe


lusan, true true
I still don't understand - I sell (down arrow) Close Trade (up arrow), Take Profit (circle), sometimes I am squared (not in the charts posted), (edit: wrong, this morning's chart squared )other times always maintain a net short EUR psoition, typically scout / spy ride the whole session.

apart from the first couple of days end of Jan, I have only traded on the short EURUSD side.

The Oanda charts don't show position size, so not a complete picture.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,271
  • May 13, 2010 8:18am May 13, 2010 8:18am
Quoting textor
Hi Baifu,

In your charts I see that you need PATIENCE, and yes, for patience you need time.
Patience to enter and much more patience, if needed, to rescue.

If you see the price action as "movements", as " waves",
you have to give them time and space to develop.

Yes, in hindsight is easy......

Rgs,

Textor
Textor,
thanks for comment.
One of AOW lessons: to know when to act and when not to act
Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,272
  • May 13, 2010 11:24am May 13, 2010 11:24am
Quoting Baifu
Textor,
thanks for comment.
One of AOW lessons: to know when to act and when not to act
Regards,
Baifu
Hi Baifu

You know when? ... when will you know?

Regards
  • #15,273
  • May 13, 2010 11:37am May 13, 2010 11:37am
Quoting Gro
Hi Baifu

You know when? ... when will you know?

Regards
  • #15,274
  • Edited 1:45pm May 13, 2010 12:09pm | Edited 1:45pm
Quoting fti
Madman or the truth???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0oLJNfs_rM
Weird Science and Freakin' Magic?

Makes sense in a lot of respects. The law of vibration.

As I was watching I thought - the birth of Christ through a bright star - the Star of Bethleham.

I'm going mad... Did I just make a connection?
  • #15,275
  • May 13, 2010 1:16pm May 13, 2010 1:16pm
Quoting Baifu
gratifying that you know
  • #15,276
  • Edited 1:37pm May 13, 2010 1:20pm | Edited 1:37pm
Quoting Zoran
Weird Science and Freakin' Magic?

Makes sense in a lot of respects. The law of vibrations.

As I was watching I thought - the birth of Christ through a bright star - the Star of Bethleham.

I'm going mad... Did I just make a connection?
Christ declare the coming Star of Bethlehem or the Star of Bethlehem has identified the coming of Christ

"In the beginning was eternal thought, and thought to be eternal, must
there is time. So the idea of growth reached all-pervading law of Time. Yes, the time that there
through all space, resulting a smooth, rhythmic movement that is eternally in a state
immobilization. Time does not change, but all things change over time. Because time is the force that holds
separate events, each in its proper place. Time is not moving, but they
move in, through time, as your consciousness moves from one event to another."

... "Yes through time existed, all in all, the eternal One existence. Know that although you separated in time, but allways One existence in all existing times."
  • #15,277
  • May 13, 2010 1:35pm May 13, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting Baifu
For me it is less tiring than watching multiple pairs and flipping. I reckon if I cannot drive by autopilot I might as well keep my hands on the wheel and foot on the pedal. I am only at it 2-4 hours at a stretch, with mid day break. Afternoon is more toned down as clock time runs out.

The Law of Motion and the Principle of Vibration is the philosophy behind this method. But there will always be one time when trend changes and despite vibrations market does not re-visit your entry zone. In my present experiment I have experienced several instances...
This where another resource is largely limited for a retail lone ranger trader. In fti's office, they do hot potato trading.
  • #15,278
  • May 13, 2010 3:06pm May 13, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting Gro
Christ declare the coming Star of Bethlehem or the Star of Bethlehem has identified the coming of Christ

... "Yes through time existed, all in all, the eternal One existence. Know that although you separated in time, but allways One existence in all existing times."
I asked Mr. Gann: "What is the cause behind the time factor?"

He smiled and said: "It has taken me twenty years of exhaustive study to learn the cause that produces effects according to time. That is my secret and too valuable to be spread broadcast. Besides, the public is not yet ready for it."


  • #15,279
  • May 13, 2010 3:07pm May 13, 2010 3:07pm
The law of vibration... who has a good understanding of it?
  • #15,280
  • May 13, 2010 3:45pm May 13, 2010 3:45pm
"The more distant is a cycle the greater his knowledge and ability to fusion the Act the Whole ... wellspring of wisdom, which sends ahead cycles, the eternally trying to gain new strength."

PS "Growth that you had and you
in the presence, gave rise to being the cause and effect."
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