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A Simple London Breakout

  • #681
  • May 12, 2010 3:02pm May 12, 2010 3:02pm
Hello,

there is one detail I would like to understand:

The EA is working with the output of the London Breakout Indicator 9.1 "LB-".
But when you are backtesting you do not have the possibility to define any indicators. Is the backtesting getting really the same results?

My backtesting results currently do not look very good (tested only with cable).

thanks for any explanation
  • #682
  • May 12, 2010 7:14pm May 12, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting squalou
Al right....

Now hopefully i can concentrate on the new features without "noise" :
- trailing stop,
- Money Management (Risk settings)
- MARTINGALE!
- Mer's new "keep open trade running after SessionEnd" rule; (but delete pending ones!)

*
Trailing to latest High/low would be great...
  • #683
  • Edited 7:05pm May 13, 2010 2:38am | Edited 7:05pm
Okay here are the charts for Tuesday. Red boxes are losing trades, Blue boxes are winning trades, and Black boxes are open trades that have not been completed and will be added to the next day's updates.

Eur/Usd

One open trade at this time.

Gbp/Usd

Trade 1= -208 pips (-104 x 2)

Next trade will start with a multiplier of 5.

No open trades at this time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd new.jpg Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd new.jpg Size: 108 KB
  • #684
  • Edited 7:16pm May 13, 2010 2:44am | Edited 7:16pm
Usd/Chf

 One open trade today using no multiplier since previous trade has not closed out yet.

One open trade from Monday using a multiplier of 2.

Gbp/Chf

Trade 1= -78 pips
Trade 2= -156 pips (-78 x 2)
Trade 3= +395 (+79 x 50)

+161 pips total for the pair
One open trade at this time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf new.jpg Size: 116 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf new.jpg Size: 121 KB
  • #685
  • May 13, 2010 2:45am May 13, 2010 2:45am
Quoting Bambo0
Hello,

there is one detail I would like to understand:

The EA is working with the output of the London Breakout Indicator 9.1 "LB-".
But when you are backtesting you do not have the possibility to define any indicators. Is the backtesting getting really the same results?

My backtesting results currently do not look very good (tested only with cable).

thanks for any explanation
"I don't really see the point in back testing any system apart from making sure it is actually making some kind of trades. The past has already happened, forget about it. Trying to predict the future based on past data is fundamentally flawed."

Not my words, but those of a very successful professional HSBC bank trader - food for thought?
  • #686
  • May 13, 2010 2:47am May 13, 2010 2:47am
Usd/Jpy

 One open trade from today using a multiplier of 2.

Eur/Jpy

No trade

No open trades at this time.

 Gbp/Jpy

No trade

No open trades at this time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy new.jpg Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy new.jpg Size: 108 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy new.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #687
  • May 13, 2010 2:49am May 13, 2010 2:49am
Quoting Gridder
Sq,


..."Do you beleive it would be a good idea to only enter pending buy & sell orders when price retraces back to within the blue box area rather than at the moment price drops through the original buy point. This would give us a bit of a buffer. In doing this, the buy order will only be triggered should price rally back up through the buffer back to the buy point from within the blue box area, indicating a trade hopefully more likely to be in the right direction.

This will avoid buying in the face of a reversal and watching it go straight...
Gridder,
very good point that you make here, totally agree with you and only add that I believe that price should close inside the box plus a small stoplevels+ gap or whatever...

drxyber
  • #688
  • May 13, 2010 4:23am May 13, 2010 4:23am
Quoting macman
"I don't really see the point in back testing any system apart from making sure it is actually making some kind of trades. The past has already happened, forget about it. Trying to predict the future based on past data is fundamentally flawed."

Not my words, but those of a very successful professional HSBC bank trader - food for thought?
Here is my thought:
1. Trader A forward-test a strategy starting from 2010.04.01 till 2010.04.30.
2. At 2010.05.01, Trader B back-test the same strategy using historical data from 2010.04.01 - 2010.04.30.

Assuming the history data are valid for the strategy, I think both Trader A and Trader B will get the same result
  • #689
  • May 13, 2010 8:11am May 13, 2010 8:11am
Quoting macman
Not my words, but those of a very successful professional HSBC bank trader - food for thought?
Quoting sangmane
Here is my thought:
Assuming the history data are valid for the strategy, I think both Trader A and Trader B will get the same result
What is flawed is what's made by human .. in our case the EA and indis (assuming the backtesting engine is not too bad) ... Backtesting helps in identifying coding flaws created by human mistakes and eventually, improving on strategies.

Not understanding backtesting means 2 things:
- whether you're logic and coding is undeniable although you have no clue what's happening in the market (considering you would have to develop a strategy out-of nothing not to be biased by historical datasets - or it would be similar to backtesting .... Ooooops)
- or you're a fat finger trader that sits his ass on a chair and wait for some coder to actually develop a working EA ... or wait for some academic individual to develop a new working strategy .. in which case the useful brain is that of the coder/academic ... and you're only a finger, but a finger that does not give back what should be to the ppl supporting you.

Not the words of someone else, actually my own (and I'm not a professional coder).

What a morning ... what got me is the "successful professional" and "food for thought" thingy ! ... I'm starving this morning.
  • #690
  • May 13, 2010 8:39pm May 13, 2010 8:39pm
No need for insults or "My uncle will beat up your uncle..."

That was part of the request from MER....

It is great you all have your opinions. Let's keep this positive!
We are our own best indicator.
  • #691
  • May 13, 2010 9:44pm May 13, 2010 9:44pm
Quoting bluemele
No need for insults or "My uncle will beat up your uncle..."

That was part of the request from MER....

It is great you all have your opinions. Let's keep this positive!
Agreed.
  • #692
  • May 14, 2010 2:02am May 14, 2010 2:02am
Okay here are the charts for Wednesday. Red boxes are losing trades, Blue boxes are winning trades, and Black boxes are open trades that have not been completed and will be added to the next day's updates.

Eur/Usd

Trade 1= -76 pips (from yesterday)
Trade 2= +154 (+77 x 2)
No open trades at this time.

Gbp/Usd

Trade 1= +300 pips (+80 x 5)

No open trades at this time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd new.jpg Size: 102 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd new.jpg Size: 99 KB
  • #693
  • May 14, 2010 2:08am May 14, 2010 2:08am
Usd/Chf

 Trade 1= +194 pips (+97 x 2) from Monday
Trade 2= -56 pips
Trade 3= +46 pips

Loss from trade 2 means that we will start the next trade with a multiplier of 2.

No open trades at this time.

Gbp/Chf

Trade 1= +79 pips from yesterday
 Trade 2= +100 pips

No open trades at this time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf new.jpg Size: 153 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf new.jpg Size: 109 KB
  • #694
  • May 14, 2010 2:12am May 14, 2010 2:12am
Usd/Jpy

 1 open trade from yesterday using a multiplier of 2.
1 open trade from today.

Eur/Jpy

No trade

No open trades at this time.

 Gbp/Jpy

No trade

No open trades at this time.

Both the Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy trades would have made target if you used a larger "MaxBoxSize".
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy new.jpg Size: 103 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy new.jpg Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy new.jpg Size: 100 KB
  • #695
  • May 14, 2010 9:34am May 14, 2010 9:34am
my broker time is gmt+ 2, what time do i change the EA to?

please help!
The World As It Is Can Do With Your Positive Disposition
  • #696
  • May 14, 2010 10:16am May 14, 2010 10:16am
Quoting liberty71
my broker time is gmt+ 2, what time do i change the EA to?

please help!
i think 05 - 08
  • #697
  • May 14, 2010 12:45pm May 14, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting liberty71
my broker time is gmt+ 2, what time do i change the EA to?

please help!

Take one of Mer's charts above, compare to your chart, you'll find the Start/End of the box easily, then just set the start/end time to bar time of the the first/last bars matching Mer's box.
It's that simple, and you'll be sure to have the correct settings, whatever local/broker time you have.

Sq
  • #698
  • Edited 2:58am May 15, 2010 2:40am | Edited 2:58am
It was brought to my attention that I made a small error. Post #683, 684, & 686 are results from Wednesday's charts. Results in posts #692, 693, & 694 are from Thursdays charts. My apologies for any confusion.

Okay here are the charts for Friday. Red boxes are losing trades, Blue boxes are winning trades, and Black boxes are open trades that have not been completed and will be added to the next day's updates. Red vertical line (17:00) is where no new trades are taken after this point.

Eur/Usd

Trade 1= +80 pips
No open trades at this time.

Gbp/Usd

Trade 1= No trade

 No open trades at this time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd new.jpg Size: 102 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd new.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #699
  • Edited 2:56am May 15, 2010 2:43am | Edited 2:56am
Usd/Chf

 Trade 1= +132 pips (+66 x 2)

No open trades at this time.

Gbp/Chf

Trade 1= No trade

No open trades at this time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf new.jpg Size: 94 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf new.jpg Size: 93 KB
  • #700
  • May 15, 2010 2:56am May 15, 2010 2:56am
Usd/Jpy

 Trade 1= -134 pips (+67 x 2)
Trade 2= +59 pips
Trade 3= +110 pips (+55 x 2)

 No open trades at this time.

 Eur/Jpy

No trade

No open trades at this time.

 Gbp/Jpy

No trade

No open trades at this time.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy new.jpg Size: 125 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy new.jpg Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy new.jpg Size: 98 KB
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