Silent Service Method | Page 432 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Silent room 2 replies

Silent Success of Patience 10 replies

My silent journal 4 replies

bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies

Seeing Through the Silent Crash 4 replies

Attachments: Silent Service Method
Exit Attachments

Silent Service Method

  • #8,621
  • May 12, 2010 6:57pm May 12, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting egkid
Hi ALL
Hope everyone doing ok :-) More than 1000 pip drop since then.
Sorry not posting much have my job and it take most of my time.That why i prefer long term trade

Hope you cleaned up on this one mate.
  • #8,622
  • May 12, 2010 7:13pm May 12, 2010 7:13pm
I cannot tell you how many times I have rushed into a trade, only to regret it almost as soon as I sent the order. This was sadly common in my earlier days of trading. I can't tell you how many times I would place an order, and then beg for it to move in my direction. I would often do this when the market wasn't moving, which is really bad form. How about a 12 pip scalp during Asia? Is there a point to doing something like that? Even if you win the trade, did it really change that much? Is your life "12 pips better" now?

I had a webinar today, and was informed by one of my members that he doubled his account last year. I cannot say how much that kind of threw me back. That is amazing. If he can do that again this year, I promise he could find a job doing this at a bank. Quickly.

But this brings me to my point. He demonstrated to me that he understood the folly of trading frequently. He understands that it only take a few really good trades to make a year. This is the irony of trading. You can trade 24 hours a day, 5 1/2 days a week, and in various amounts. Yet, only the foolish do.

If you only learn one thing from this thread, learn this: It is always the WHERE that matters, much more than the formation of the bars. This is not to suggest that the formations don't matter, but that they are secondary. It's important to find meaningful support and resistance, then find clues as to which way that price wants to go. That is the essence of trading. It really is that simple. I promise.

Below is a chart that is not only technical, but a psychological test as well. There are four lines on this chart, and they are the only places you need to look for trades, period. If you are trading at other places, then are you trading? Or are you gambling?

If you are taking trades at other places, then perhaps you might want to consider why you are taking these trades. There is almost always some psychological reason behind it.

As a small disclaimer, it's possible that your lines on your chart are different than mine, and that's fine. The point is pick your spots. This is how subs do it in the open waters. It is the essence of "Silent Service."

Cheers,
Chris
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lines.png Size: 47 KB
  • #8,623
  • May 12, 2010 8:16pm May 12, 2010 8:16pm
i think that was the kind of post i needed to hear clock. I need to stop trading on 15 min charts during the day and scalping small moves.

Ive read this thread for along time, totally agree the locations are more important but what do we do when price actually gets to an area like on your gu chart?

I often here you say you can buy or sell at a good area if you can accept the risk, obviously that is a fair point to make seems if you are comfortable then there isnt really any problems. I find waiting for pin bars etc is somewhat not the real essence of trading when the markets are made up of simple supply and demand areas and if you focus on the key levels you should feel confident enough to place the trade and not feel guilty of gambling?

I feel guilty trading on smaller timeframes, i guess your post kinda helped ring true that a long term approach is where the money is at?

thanks again
  • #8,624
  • May 12, 2010 9:56pm May 12, 2010 9:56pm
Quoting supermatt
i think that was the kind of post i needed to hear clock. I need to stop trading on 15 min charts during the day and scalping small moves.

Ive read this thread for along time, totally agree the locations are more important but what do we do when price actually gets to an area like on your gu chart?

I often here you say you can buy or sell at a good area if you can accept the risk, obviously that is a fair point to make seems if you are comfortable then there isnt really any problems. I find waiting for pin bars etc is somewhat not the real essence...
Correct - a pinbar is nothing more than a bit of confirmation that a particular supply or demand area is valid. It's not 100% perfect, because nothing is....but it's pretty good.

Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance. That is the essence.
  • #8,625
  • May 13, 2010 2:15am May 13, 2010 2:15am
Quoting jharvey407
My short on the AUDCAD got filled yesterday when the price broke below the weekly 1 2 3 top. Anyone else in on this trade?
yes, i have been in on this trade for about two weeks now.
  • #8,626
  • May 13, 2010 6:25am May 13, 2010 6:25am
Quoting femfam
yes, i have been in on this trade for about two weeks now.
Two weeks, wow, nice job. Would you please post a chart of your entry?
  • #8,627
  • May 13, 2010 8:00am May 13, 2010 8:00am
Quoting supermatt
i think that was the kind of post i needed to hear clock. I need to stop trading on 15 min charts during the day and scalping small moves. [...] I feel guilty trading on smaller timeframes, i guess your post kinda helped ring true that a long term approach is where the money is at?

thanks again
You're sincere and learning, so I don't mean to be critical of you b/c so many do this to themselves not just in trading but in life - including myself at times. So please excuse me, I don't know how else to say this w/o being blunt:

Don't feel guilty unless you meant to trade poorly or harm yourself in the process! (It'll only serve to sabotage any marginal success you might have trading and as a trader.)

Is that your motive?

If so, then it doesn't really matter where you trade, what timeframe you trade on or how experienced you are...

Your account would become "liquidity" to my account
  • #8,628
  • May 13, 2010 8:56am May 13, 2010 8:56am
Hey Chris,

I've added a close up to show pin shape on the daily.

How would you trade this stock using your S/R method at the moment given it is sitting right on a weekly SR area? I can't tell if this looks like a reversal or a potential downside break - or is this because it hasn't shown its true hand yet?

Thanks for your help.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: verizon weekly sr.jpg Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: verizon daily sr.jpg Size: 65 KB
  • #8,629
  • May 13, 2010 9:15am May 13, 2010 9:15am
Quoting 4xAddict
Hey Chris,

I've added a close up to show pin shape on the daily.

How would you trade this stock using your S/R method at the moment given it is sitting right on a weekly SR area? I can't tell if this looks like a reversal or a potential downside break - or is this because it hasn't shown its true hand yet?

Thanks for your help.

To me it looks like a potential long, but I would suspect that first line above it might provide a certain amount of resistance. Also, the length of the pinbar you would have to place the stop behind makes it a 1/1 risk to reward basically. I would rate this a "B", mainly because of that. If that damn pin was shorter - it would be more appealing.

I am not saying you can't take it.....just that the R/R is a little less than I like to see on counter-trend.....

Chris
  • #8,630
  • May 13, 2010 11:06am May 13, 2010 11:06am
it broke the trend line last week , retest it , and heading down , next support 135. interesting ! looks like it will be closing below broken trend line this week .
where are u golfer ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #8,631
  • May 13, 2010 1:07pm May 13, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting samer960
it broke the trend line last week , retest it , and heading down , next support 135. interesting ! looks like it will be closing below broken trend line this week .
where are u golfer ?
Yep. Was just looking at this one myself.....
  • #8,632
  • May 13, 2010 3:27pm May 13, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting samer960
it broke the trend line last week , retest it , and heading down , next support 135. interesting ! looks like it will be closing below broken trend line this week .
where are u golfer ?

Im looking to reshort it when it retests 148. Its staying within the confines of a month long 4H channel at the moment. Its at the bottom of the channel as we speak. I think it bounces back to 148 before heading way south. I plan on either playing that bounce or playing the break of the most recent crazy election spike that touched 145. Either way, there is no real support until 140 ( I think there is some support in that area before you get to the 135 area).

Sorry I can't post a chart at the moment.
  • #8,633
  • May 13, 2010 3:29pm May 13, 2010 3:29pm
Euro messing with lows... We break that 125 mark and I will be even more convinced that we are getting to parity in the next 18 months...
  • #8,634
  • May 13, 2010 3:38pm May 13, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yep. Was just looking at this one myself.....
Chris,

thanks a lot for the feedback on the charts earlier. I am still trying to get my head around what appears to be a very simple method that you use however I think at times I naturally complicate it by habit

Regarding Samer's chart note, do you now add this development in the GBPUSD to your checklist for the EURGBP trade that a number of you guys have sold into?

I'm not trading your method yet as I am still very early on in the learning curve.

I am interested in how you view the correlation between pairs and whether this is a consideration at all or do you just run with whatever is on the chart at the time? I guess I am asking, would this change your trade rating from an A to an A- or B+ knowing that the other side of the EURGBP trade is now showing probable short term weakness.

Cheers, 4x.
  • #8,635
  • May 13, 2010 4:32pm May 13, 2010 4:32pm
I've bought a micro lot of gbpusd at 1.50 and I'm buying 1 more at 1.40 if it gets that low. This may not seem very sensible but the way I see it I have enough funds to cover the negatives even if it goes down to 1.35 or lower and we all know sooner or later it will hit 2 dollars again for a 5000 pip gain. I can wait.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,636
  • May 13, 2010 4:43pm May 13, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
I've bought a micro lot of gbpusd at 1.50 and I'm buying 1 more at 1.40 if it gets that low. This may not seem very sensible but the way I see it I have enough funds to cover the negatives even if it goes down to 1.35 or lower and we all know sooner or later it will hit 2 dollars again for a 5000 pip gain. I can wait.
OK...I know I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed...but did you miss my big long post about shorting and adding shorts on my kiwi trade as each new one went underwater?

Averaging down is a psychological game we play with ourselves because we refuse admit we were wrong.

My experience cost me 27% of my equity.

Not exactly how you go about winning this game.
  • #8,637
  • May 13, 2010 4:46pm May 13, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
I've bought a micro lot of gbpusd at 1.50 and I'm buying 1 more at 1.40 if it gets that low. This may not seem very sensible but the way I see it I have enough funds to cover the negatives even if it goes down to 1.35 or lower and we all know sooner or later it will hit 2 dollars again for a 5000 pip gain. I can wait.
Why don't you short it on the way down?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd w.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #8,638
  • May 13, 2010 4:52pm May 13, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Chris,

thanks a lot for the feedback on the charts earlier. I am still trying to get my head around what appears to be a very simple method that you use however I think at times I naturally complicate it by habit

Regarding Samer's chart note, do you now add this development in the GBPUSD to your checklist for the EURGBP trade that a number of you guys have sold into?

I'm not trading your method yet as I am still very early on in the learning curve.

I am interested in how you view the correlation between pairs and whether this is a...

I just came here to post this actually:

I am moving stops to b/e on the EUR/GBP because of the cable falling apart as well. I still believe in the move down on EUR/GBP, but a nasty spike could come.

If I get taken out - I am looking for any excuse to sell again.
  • #8,639
  • May 13, 2010 4:52pm May 13, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting Low
OK...I know I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed...but did you miss my big long post about shorting and adding shorts on my kiwi trade as each new one went underwater?

Averaging down is a psychological game we play with ourselves because we refuse admit we were wrong.

My experience cost me 27% of my equity.

Not exactly how you go about winning this game.
Well I'm not going to just keep adding. I'm buying two positions at what I consider value.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,640
  • May 13, 2010 4:57pm May 13, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting jharvey407
Why don't you short it on the way down?
I see your point but we just don't know where it's going to bounce. The new government is just getting under way and there's an emergency budget in the pipeline. It could easily retest 1.45 then rocket upwards. It could go all the way to 1.35 or lower before it reverses but sooner or later it will have to come back to a more realistic value against the dollar and looking at history 2 dollars is achievable.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
6 traders viewing now