Steve Hopwood's Epsilon Megastar fib auto-trading robot

From a professional point of view GBPUSD has been very difficult to trade effectively since mid 2007. So I am not surprised it shows bad results, you will find it shows bad results whatever system you try to trade it with.

Fibs is just another indicator to use, it is by no means 100% profitable for any currency, if it were, then.......

Whatever indicators you use you will always need to factor in the underlying ever changing currencies economics, this has become even more apparent since 2008 due to the world economic downtrend.

Even then you are still at the mercy of short term speculators which as you have seen have/are causing mayhem for the EURO.

I dont see the point in back testing any system apart from making sure it is actually making some kind of trades. The past has already happened, forget about it.

Trying to predict the future based on past data is fundementally flawed.

Scoobs.

My instant reaction to the 50 pips stop loss was this, "What happens when the most recent swing was a large one. Doesn't that make a 50 pip stop look silly?"

Maybe the stop should be a multiple of the swing. It is supposed to guard against cataclysm, after all.

Or, are we getting into Atr stop loss again?

The robot is very simple and easily adaptable - one of the lessons I have learned coding robots is to make sure of this. It is the work of seconds to code any alternative stop loss feature and add it to the zip as 'EM plus ????' where ???? represents the stop loss feature.

Great to see you here Scoobs. Your advice is much appreciated again.

Doesn't look promising for the GU here.

Apropos taking notice of people who know what they are talking about, a tiny handful of us here were members of WSS about 3 years agp. Regardless of whether the WSS system is still going or not, the site guru showed some prescience.

Just about the time GU passed 1.900, Ashar posted that he was shorting GU. Some time later, when the price topped 2.000 and continued to head north, I wondered what he had been on at the time.

I hope he took out a large lot size and stuck with the trade. I wish he would sell me some of what he was on at the time.

Take notice of Scoobs, is what I am saying here. He has an entire thread named after him.

Steve, Great Job! My sincere congratulations!

It is exciting to see you focusing your coding firepower on 1 project at one time. Your talent is for sure will be more efficiently spent this way.

About the stoploss. I modestly suggest using a ATR or fractal level for a currency like gbpusd or gbpjpy.

take an example, the Quantum PDF's 1st "simple example" of GU with 273 pips profit.

when it entered, the few hours preceding the entry is a set of horizontal bars ranging. An ATR(6~10) on H1 or Fractal level may serve a reasonable stoploss level if you see the PDF's figure.

just my 2 cheap cents. i feel it doesn't matter this EA's profitability much (if this is truly profitable) because this EA seems doing better in pushing exit levels for floating profits.

Steve...I don't see any info on the 4 hour timeframe setup in the EM pdf. Can it be used...will fib and zz adjust for it?
4H is a trender's helper.....I would like to give it a try if possible.
Stop me if you don't think it will work.....

whip

The function of the 'hard' stop loss is purely to guard against the kind of cataclysm I described in my earlier rant about those criminals whom mentioning mean I will have to ban myself from posting here.

I can easily add an Atr stop loss to automate the proces, but here is a different suggestion. How about merely increasing the StopLoss input. This, combined with the extra candle direction filter at trade close time, will give the trade breathing room.

Would you care to do this on demo for a day, and say after that whether you would like an Atr-automated stop loss?

In the strategy doc, the authour reccomends M5 and H4 charts to trade. When trading the H4, he suggests doubling the 'hard' stop loss. He recommends the M5 for traders able to stay glued to their console, and the H4 for those who only want to check it once or twice a day.

I was aware of this when coding the extra Rsi trade entry filters. I did not make any allowance for using the H4 chart because I figure this: if trading off a higher TF, then we still do not want the lower tf's moving against us when we actually place the trade.

It would be easy to add an only-consult-the-H1-Rsi-if-the-tf-is-<H4 etc filter instruction. In the meantime, would you like to try the robot on the H4 and let me know what happens?

I sure would if your sure your tpl will work on it and I just won't make a mess.......

whip

I just tried it to check.

The platform crashed. The robot code got completely chewed up and the only way to retrieve it was to download it from post 1 here.

It closed all my open trades at a loss.

I am writing this from the other machine in my music room. My trading machine is fried.

Hey ho.

Sorry. Couldn't resist. I just tried it with the template to check, and there are no problems.

This maybe helpful to any robot.

Fibs tend to work better when the primary currency is in its own trading session with no overlapping.

Example:

GBPUSD - So around 8.00am GMT to 1.00pm GMT.
USDJPY - So around 1.00pm GMT to 10.00pm GMT.

Scoobs.

HaHa......

Thank you Sir....You are a gentleman and a scholar........Thanks for the info and have a great day......

whip

Cheers Scoobs.

Also, trying to trade XXXJPY pairs during the Asian session using Fibs is a potential disaster due to the BOJ intervention policy.

This is why most technical indicator based systems fail. The BOJ or ECB or BOE dont care about Fibs, RSI, Fractals, ADX etc. If they need or want a currency to be at a certain level then it will become so. Currency speculators, Hedge funds and short sellers just add another dynamic to the pot.

The main reason why systems or people fail in FX is because they dont/cant/accept/understand losses which will always occur due to reasons beyond your control.

And always ask yourself...........if the big financial players (with their mega bucks) cant (yet) build a fully automated system then what hope do retail traders have.

I am not saying it cant be done............but it aint easy.......is it

Scoobs.

Hi Steve......I'm up and running......SL=100....MinFib=150 per 4 hour setup in pdf......We'll see how it goes.....Will be slow!

whip

AVE Steve

You are coding these babies faster than I can test them! I had just started testing your swing bot few days ago and this exciting new EA is released. I think the criminal plonkers really hate you and may put a contract on you. So please please be careful.

From what I have read the opinion on Fibonacci is very much divided between the believers and non believers. I will start LIVE testing your latest masterpiece "EpsilonMegastar", as of tomorrow on my penny account, using H4 TF. I have been trading the H4 using your 2SMA MACD and nanningbob`s semi automated system (the EAs are not as advanced as your creations and need a lot of intervention) for the last 2 months. The results are very much in positive territory, although with 2sma MACD many small wins are offset by few large losing trades.

I hope to be able to report favourable results, initially will put a SL of 100 pips with trading times adjusted according to SCOOBYS suggestion regarding Fibonacci and currency`s home market.

Kind Regards

Steve,

I just came by this thread of yours 15 minutes ago.

I read about your intention of adding hedging to the robot in the later stage. As such, i wish to offer my opinion. Here's it:

"In Jacko's words:

“Hedging ” to me is simply hiding a loss under another opposite trade…and sooner or later, when the hedge comes off, there is an ugly loss exposed…I don’t like that concept !!! (However, to those who use them, I say, different strokes for different folks…that is, its a personal choice).
Currently, this is what seems to happen to some Traders…
1. you put a trade on and you put a stop loss of around 40- 50 pips
2. the market goes against you (horrors….I was wwwwwrong !! )
3. let the market continue…it will probably go say another 30 - 100 pips past your stop…who knows ???
4. FINALLY, the market comes back around and starts to head in the opposite direction
5. by now you are totally hacked off with the market and you let it go
The solution that that I found is a pretty simple one but one that has to be executed without fail…
Scenario 2
That strategy is:
1. you put a trade on and you put a stop loss of around 40- 50 pips
2. the market goes against you (horrors….I was wwwwwrong !! )
3. let the market continue…it will probably go say another 30 - 100 pips past your stop…who knows ???
4. PUT AN ORDER IN AT THE EXACT SAME FIGURE AS YOUR STOP LOSS (if you were originally “short” then place a “short” order) This ensures that when the market comes back, as it invariably does, you have a DEFINATE order in place to put you back in the market where you were originally…and you are now in the same direction as the market is moving..
5. FINALLY, the market comes back around and starts to head in the opposite direction
6. The market picks you back up on its new direction
7. THE ADVANTAGES OF THIS (THEORETICAL) STRATEGY IS THAT
a. IT HAS AN EFFECTIVE AND DISCIPLINED COURSE OF ACTION
b. IT GIVES YOU A SPECIFIC “ENTRY” POINT
c. IT REDUCES LARGE DRAWDOWNS
d. IT PUTS YOU BACK IN THE MARKET EXACTLY WHERE YOU GOT OUT
I know that there are DISADVANTAGES with this strategy, buy I think that the overall effect of the advantages outweigh the disadvantages.
I also think that this strategy is more appealing to my business sense of minimizing risk than the original concept of “hedging” that initially set me off to discover an alternative strategy to hedging.
I have now been using this strategy for a couple of months and it is working brilliantly.
PLEASE NOTE: I am a medium to long term trend trader. The above method works best on those time frames. It works less well on short term time frames because of the volatile “noise” in the market.
When a stop loss has been triggered, I allow it to go past my SL by a minimum of 50 pips before I set the new order.
When the market has turned and is coming down in the “trend” direction, my order is then opened.
Try it…you will be surprised how good it is.
The key advantage is that you are not tempted to “hang on” to a losing trade….and therefore your drawdowns are minimized.
However this is a “default” trade. It is NOT the prime strategy to use.
DO NOT LOSE SIGHT THAT the prime strategy is to trade medium/ long term and trade with the trend, with a trailing stop."

You can also find more info in the thread "Jacko's Forex House Of Pain" in Forex Factory. Only the initial pages you will find his ideas. Do not find yourself into pages of more than 10 because after that are just "noises".

NOTE: I DO NOT ENDORSE WAYNE JACKSON'S METHOD OR PAID MEMBERSHIP PROGRAMME. IT'S JUST THAT I FIND THAT HIS ANTI-HEDGE METHOD MAKES A LOT OF SENSE TO ME.

Hope i am not jamming up the thread

Cheers.

Just a point of information:

The third bullet point on page 3 in the Epsilon Megastar user guide refers to the following template file which is not included in the zip file:

fib 75 25.tpl

I am going to assume that it meant to refer to the "epsilon megastar.tpl" file that is in fact included in the zip, but thought that I should bring it to everyone's attention. Please clarify at your leisure.

Thanks again for the wonderful toys!

I have loaded it up on way too many pairs (just for fun, not recommended) and although I see good signals as described in the pdf, not a single trade all day. I am using default settings. Has anybody else had any action today?

Wow you quoted me in the code! That's awesome!