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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,221
  • May 12, 2010 7:18am May 12, 2010 7:18am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
aiyah...true also, then there is the question of returns too...
aaah ta'ke you caught my sway! im not saying that a micro account dont work, its good for practise but you cant make buck out of such sweat. TAF is alot of work, dedication and sacrifice...esp time. thus...then again if people dont mind thowing 10% out of the window, i have no qualms
  • #15,222
  • May 12, 2010 7:31am May 12, 2010 7:31am
Quoting jest1081
aaah ta'ke you caught my sway!
bro what the above mean huh ?

Some thoughts about TAF though, TA fallacy, fti nvr mention anything about not using TA, in fact he put forth some useful ways to use them. Here and there you can see him referring to chart patterns etc. But most students go naked, is it really the best way ? I still use my MAs though, and have avoided many costly mistakes that naked chart readers made. I think too much focus on those skew and rescues stuff. Very little said about dance, TA can help you dance. agree ?
  • #15,223
  • May 12, 2010 7:32am May 12, 2010 7:32am
Quoting jest1081
att 1,1,2,3
res (skip 3) 5,13

basically by doing some maths you could vaguely guess that fti and us...we are way out of his league. way way out.

so could you use the method effectively?
yes. just use 111 or 112 and flip. disregard rescue and concentrate on the dance instead.
Jest, may be I misunderstood your post,

".........and concluded that it would require an account worth 50k to be handle a 5level skew with a total ruin of 2.2%"

all depends on the size of your level 1 (troop size) relative to the 50K acct, no?
For example if leveraged to 50, 50 K acct will give 500 troops of 5000 units, or 1 troop = 10% of acct - this will in turn determine how many skews you can do for your safety margin for ruin.

As to your question, yes I could use the method effectively in demo to practice MM strategies. I use small troop size (500 troops for account) and go to level 9 (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34). On occasion 55,89 have been used for kamikazi rescues.

I don't skip level or spiral out as I don't do classic zoom out rescue, just practicing basic progression of fib numbers (sometimes going forward and backward) to constantly vary exposure to respond to PA and dance.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,224
  • May 12, 2010 7:35am May 12, 2010 7:35am
Quoting Baifu
Jest, may be I misunderstood your post,

".........and concluded that it would require an account worth 50k to be handle a 5level skew with a total ruin of 2.2%"

all depends on the size of your level 1 (troop size) relative to the 50K acct, no?
For example if leveraged to 50, 50 K acct will give 500 troops of 5000 units, or 1 troop = 10% of acct - this will in turn determine how many skews you can do for your safety margin for ruin.

As to your question, yes I could use the method effectively in demo to practice MM strategies. I use...
i must apologise. i should have mentioned equity instead of account
in any way. thats impressive! i cant imagine what kind of draw down and how much screen time you could put up with such levels
  • #15,225
  • May 12, 2010 7:36am May 12, 2010 7:36am
Quoting Baifu
Jest, may be I misunderstood your post,

".........and concluded that it would require an account worth 50k to be handle a 5level skew with a total ruin of 2.2%"

all depends on the size of your level 1 (troop size) relative to the 50K acct, no?
For example if leveraged to 50, 50 K acct will give 500 troops of 5000 units, or 1 troop = 10% of acct - this will in turn determine how many skews you can do for your safety margin for ruin.

As to your question, yes I could use the method effectively in demo to practice MM strategies. I use...
what kind of returns % wise do you get using ur type of skew ? And draw down also. If you dont mind sharing
  • #15,226
  • May 12, 2010 7:51am May 12, 2010 7:51am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
what kind of returns % wise do you get using ur type of skew ? And draw down also. If you dont mind sharing
Right now I am deep in level 11, PnL is +ve, but DD is over 5% (lot of foreign capital), I have to work on risk - too much yo yo.

Have to look after my troops, more later

Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,227
  • May 12, 2010 8:59am May 12, 2010 8:59am
Quoting jest1081
i must apologise. i should have mentioned equity instead of account
in any way. thats impressive! i cant imagine what kind of draw down and how much screen time you could put up with such levels
No problem, I always take note of your posts because I remember you wrote about position sizing and exposure, and that's emphasis at the moment.

Screen time: 3-5 hours European morning and 3-5 hours European afternoon. I do not have the stamina to wage long campaigns. I like to square all (or most) positions and take a walk mid day. Because of my time constraint I trade 15,5,1 minute using daily for trend. Only E/U and only the direction of the daily. No flip.

Will look into historical DD and report later.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,228
  • May 12, 2010 9:15am May 12, 2010 9:15am
Quoting esuffw
Hey Zoran

...I guess he just doesnt want to discuss it here since there are so many newbies like me who are still struggling with the basic dance! He is just annoyed maybe.... Or most of us are just not ready to know, e.g. ME

Cheer up bud, he has changed our trading already, FOR FREE!!! Let him give when he is ready to give. Meanwhile we can only wait and improve on the basics.
If we wait for the beginners to get to the right level then we'll be here forever as we are constantly getting new people.

If we are waiting for the more advanced to figure it out themselves, then how do we know they haven't already? A lot of those who have been here for a while simply don't post much anymore - until recently, me included.

If the spiral within spiral is catching the intermediate and major trend swings to gain capital while short sword battles are on the minor trends, then I was there already at the beginning of 2009 when the market was bottoming. I didn't see this as a spiral within spiral or hedging, I saw it as an AOW strategy:

TACTICAL DISPOSITIONS

1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put
themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then
waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.

I started talking about it in mid 2009.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post2772066

The thing is, I don't know if it is the blind leading the blind or not. However, the strategy works for me.
  • #15,229
  • May 12, 2010 9:49am May 12, 2010 9:49am
... endure to the end
Inserted Video
  • #15,230
  • May 12, 2010 10:21am May 12, 2010 10:21am
My personal opinion is... Zoran hasn't been disrespectful or anything. He's simply wanting further guidance that might lead to him stepping up his game. And that's the point of the entire thread... to become better traders. Fti said this stuff takes 2 years for most people and that's with him in their face training them. Zoran has been here since the beginning and sometimes you have to prod to open up further discussion. It can be seen as impatience(unlikely with the amount of time he has been here), overstepping his bounds(as I read his posts seems to be helpful and respectful), or overambitious(all traders are overambitious... this game attracts ambitious people). I just see it as wanting more discussion and thats all.
  • #15,231
  • Edited 11:42am May 12, 2010 11:31am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Totally agree !! So I am not alone haha.

Actually rescue can become attack and attack can become rescue. hmmm
Hm, it's something I do implement every now and then. Actually did it last night at EURJPY. A sort of Spiral within spiral thing, hehe
Hedging against volatility to keep the VAR in meaningful proportions and turning the hedge into attack should volatility becomes something more. The maths, however, do become a bit confusing having to deal with basically to levels of exposure that at one point need to merge into one.

Edit: I don't consider this to be hedging really, just couldn't think of the right word to describe it. Counter-positions maybe, hmm
  • #15,232
  • May 12, 2010 11:46am May 12, 2010 11:46am
Quoting Setebos
Hm, it's something I do implement every now and then. Actually did it last night at EURJPY. A sort of Spiral within spiral thing, hehe
Hedging against volatility to keep the VAR in meaningful proportions and turning the hedge into attack should volatility becomes something more. The maths, however, do become a bit confusing having to deal with basically to levels of exposure that at one point need to merge into one.
So were you dancing both ways? When one side is on the rescue the other is attacking. I suppose that's what u mean by hedging, or with something else... Its kind of like a discounted rescue plan.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #15,233
  • May 12, 2010 11:58am May 12, 2010 11:58am
Quoting esuffw
So were you dancing both ways? When one side is on the rescue the other is attacking. I suppose that's what u mean by hedging, or with something else... Its kind of like a discounted rescue plan.
Yes, that's sort of it. I was initially short, then made a small attack on the move up without killing the shorts. At the point where the price indicated loose of bullish momentum I deployed my short rescue and brought the longs home with their pray. Should the price have kept going up I would keep snowballing longs until they overwhelm the shorts and bring me to profit land again. This is a general scenario and is, of course, heavily dependent on the initial shorts size.
I'm not sure if I articulated it well, hope it makes sense.

Regards
S
  • #15,234
  • May 12, 2010 11:59am May 12, 2010 11:59am
Quoting Setebos
Hm, it's something I do implement every now and then. Actually did it last night at EURJPY. A sort of Spiral within spiral thing, hehe
Hedging against volatility to keep the VAR in meaningful proportions and turning the hedge into attack should volatility becomes something more. The maths, however, do become a bit confusing having to deal with basically to levels of exposure that at one point need to merge into one.

Edit: I don't consider this to be hedging really, just couldn't think of the right word to describe it. Counter-positions maybe, hmm...
Jest generously shared his analysis and I could resonate with his conclusion. I believe the word you are looking for is "anti hedge". Jacko wacko fans like to use this term, however misleading imo.
  • #15,235
  • May 12, 2010 1:12pm May 12, 2010 1:12pm
AOW

IV. TACTICAL DISPOSITIONS


1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put
themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then
waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.

2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our
own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy
is provided by the enemy himself.

3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat,
but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.

4. Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer
without being able to do it.

5. Security against defeat implies defensive tactics;
ability to defeat the enemy means taking the offensive.

6. Standing on the defensive indicates insufficient
strength; attacking, a superabundance of strength.

7. The general who is skilled in defense hides in the
most secret recesses of the earth; he who is skilled in
attack flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven.
Thus on the one hand we have ability to protect ourselves;
on the other, a victory that is complete.

8. To see victory only when it is within the ken
of the common herd is not the acme of excellence.

9. Neither is it the acme of excellence if you fight
and conquer and the whole Empire says, "Well done!"

10. To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength;
to see the sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight;
to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear.

11. What the ancients called a clever fighter is
one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease.

12. Hence his victories bring him neither reputation
for wisdom nor credit for courage.

13. He wins his battles by making no mistakes.
Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty
of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is
already defeated.

14. Hence the skillful fighter puts himself into
a position which makes defeat impossible, and does
not miss the moment for defeating the enemy.

15. Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist
only seeks battle after the victory has been won,
whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights
and afterwards looks for victory.

16. The consummate leader cultivates the moral law,
and strictly adheres to method and discipline; thus it is
in his power to control success.

17. In respect of military method, we have,
firstly, Measurement; secondly, Estimation of quantity;
thirdly, Calculation; fourthly, Balancing of chances;
fifthly, Victory.

18. Measurement owes its existence to Earth;
Estimation of quantity to Measurement; Calculation to
Estimation of quantity; Balancing of chances to Calculation;
and Victory to Balancing of chances.

19. A victorious army opposed to a routed one, is as
a pound's weight placed in the scale against a single grain.

20. The onrush of a conquering force is like the bursting
of pent-up waters into a chasm a thousand fathoms deep.
  • #15,236
  • May 12, 2010 2:16pm May 12, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting Zoran
AOW

IV. TACTICAL DISPOSITIONS


1. Sun Tzu said:...
... first is "attack to plans (strategy) the enemy"
  • #15,237
  • May 12, 2010 3:54pm May 12, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting Gro
... first is "attack to plans (strategy) the enemy"
III. ATTACK BY STRATAGEM


1. Sun Tzu said: In the practical art of war, the best
thing of all is to take the enemy's country whole and intact;
to shatter and destroy it is not so good. So, too, it is
better to recapture an army entire than to destroy it,
to capture a regiment, a detachment or a company entire
than to destroy them.

2. Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles
is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists
in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.

3. Thus the highest form of generalship is to
balk the enemy's plans; the next best is to prevent
the junction of the enemy's forces; the next in
order is to attack the enemy's army in the field;
and the worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities.

4. The rule is, not to besiege walled cities if it
can possibly be avoided. The preparation of mantlets,
movable shelters, and various implements of war, will take
up three whole months; and the piling up of mounds over
against the walls will take three months more.

5. The general, unable to control his irritation,
will launch his men to the assault like swarming ants,
with the result that one-third of his men are slain,
while the town still remains untaken. Such are the disastrous
effects of a siege.

6. Therefore the skillful leader subdues the enemy's
troops without any fighting; he captures their cities
without laying siege to them; he overthrows their kingdom
without lengthy operations in the field.

7. With his forces intact he will dispute the mastery
of the Empire, and thus, without losing a man, his triumph
will be complete. This is the method of attacking by stratagem.

8. It is the rule in war, if our forces are ten
to the enemy's one, to surround him; if five to one,
to attack him; if twice as numerous, to divide our army
into two.

9. If equally matched, we can offer battle;
if slightly inferior in numbers, we can avoid the enemy;
if quite unequal in every way, we can flee from him.

10. Hence, though an obstinate fight may be made
by a small force, in the end it must be captured
by the larger force.

11. Now the general is the bulwark of the State;
if the bulwark is complete at all points; the State will
be strong; if the bulwark is defective, the State will
be weak.

12. There are three ways in which a ruler can bring
misfortune upon his army:--

13. (1) By commanding the army to advance or to retreat,
being ignorant of the fact that it cannot obey.
This is called hobbling the army.

14. (2) By attempting to govern an army in the
same way as he administers a kingdom, being ignorant
of the conditions which obtain in an army. This causes
restlessness in the soldier's minds.

15. (3) By employing the officers of his army
without discrimination, through ignorance of the
military principle of adaptation to circumstances.
This shakes the confidence of the soldiers.

16. But when the army is restless and distrustful,
trouble is sure to come from the other feudal princes.
This is simply bringing anarchy into the army, and flinging
victory away.

17. Thus we may know that there are five essentials
for victory:
(1) He will win who knows when to fight and when
not to fight.
(2) He will win who knows how to handle both superior
and inferior forces.
(3) He will win whose army is animated by the same
spirit throughout all its ranks.
(4) He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take
the enemy unprepared.
(5) He will win who has military capacity and is
not interfered with by the sovereign.

18. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy
and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a
hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy,
for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will
succumb in every battle.
  • #15,238
  • May 12, 2010 4:06pm May 12, 2010 4:06pm
Hi,

Can anyone tell me how to capture Oanda chart as attachment?

Do I need a screen capture program? I tried to "print screen" and save as jpeg but failed. Was trying to attach today's chart showing trades.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,239
  • May 12, 2010 4:29pm May 12, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting Baifu
Hi,

Can anyone tell me how to capture Oanda chart as attachment?

Do I need a screen capture program? I tried to "print screen" and save as jpeg but failed. Was trying to attach today's chart showing trades.

Regards,
Baifu
Print screen works fine for me. Print screen then paste in mspaint. Then save as jpeg.

Also I like to take pictures when I am practicing at intervals so I can flip back through the screens like watching a movie replay.

For that you can use "AutoScreenShot" its a free application that takes screenshots of your screen at time intervals which you are free to set at whatever and saves them into a designated folder. Just search google and you'll find.
  • #15,240
  • May 12, 2010 5:21pm May 12, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting Zoran
AOW

IV. TACTICAL DISPOSITIONS


1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put
themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then
waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.

2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our
own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy
is provided by the enemy himself.

3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat,
but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.

4. Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer
without being able to do it.

5. Security against...
Zoran, I want to tell you that these quotes are so beautifull and appropiate to trading the way that I understand it. Thanks,
Luis
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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