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Silent Service Method

  • #8,601
  • May 11, 2010 11:27am May 11, 2010 11:27am
Quoting clockwork71
I'm glad you pointed this out.....I was just coming back to comment on it again.....similar to your thoughts.

I just saw that Cameron will probably be the PM in England, and that is driving a little bit of GBP buying at the moment.

**** 5 minutes after typing this: An announcement is scheduled for a little later to state an agreement has been reached. ****
Yes, I just turned the tv on and saw that, waiting for an announcement imminently.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,602
  • May 11, 2010 11:34am May 11, 2010 11:34am
A friend of mine has a blog. He was a kid I grew up with, and is one of the funniest people I have ever known.

Check it out for a good laugh.

http://shootingatrandom.blog.com/
  • #8,603
  • May 11, 2010 12:42pm May 11, 2010 12:42pm
Chris, I know you don't do fortune telling but how low can you see euraud and eurcad falling? Neither seem to have any support at all now, parity here we come? (and eurnzd)
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,604
  • May 11, 2010 1:21pm May 11, 2010 1:21pm
Although not directly related to the thread, for those interested, here is a chart of Greek 2yr Debt. Just to give you a sense for how violent a move they've seen over the last several weeks:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-05-11_Greece.png Size: 52 KB
  • #8,605
  • May 11, 2010 1:46pm May 11, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting clockwork71
While this example isn't as extreme as the Sugar one I posted, this is a good example of one none the less.
Hi CW,

On your N/CHF chart would you wait for a weekly close or a daily close below the pinbar to enter. I ask because obviously a weekly close is a stronger signal but has the negative of potentially falling a lot further before close.

It is a question I have been meaning to ask lately because I follow GOLD quite closely and the recent market action seems to reward trades based off daily closes however the vicious upward spiral it is in may be giving me a false impression of a broader rule used in your method?

Cheers mate.
  • #8,606
  • May 11, 2010 2:44pm May 11, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting clockwork71
I'm glad you pointed this out.....I was just coming back to comment on it again.....similar to your thoughts.

I just saw that Cameron will probably be the PM in England, and that is driving a little bit of GBP buying at the moment.

**** 5 minutes after typing this: An announcement is scheduled for a little later to state an agreement has been reached. ****

What does this say for the Pound/Dollar? It broke a weekly trendline short last week (or the week before), but I am wondering what the elections being figured out will do... I still like the strength of the Pound to Euro, but I don't really know what to think fundamentally regarding the pound/dollar.
  • #8,607
  • May 11, 2010 3:15pm May 11, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting TraderDavo
What does this say for the Pound/Dollar? It broke a weekly trendline short last week (or the week before), but I am wondering what the elections being figured out will do... I still like the strength of the Pound to Euro, but I don't really know what to think fundamentally regarding the pound/dollar.
The market PA will eventually tell us however I know what you mean. The long term outlook for the UK economy is not good and will likely come under more scrutiny in the coming months once the dust settles on this Coalition government here.

My longer term expectation is for GBP weakness against the USD and strength against the EUR and JPY. Gotta love unmitigated opinion right
  • #8,608
  • May 11, 2010 3:23pm May 11, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting 4xAddict
The market PA will eventually tell us however I know what you mean. The long term outlook for the UK economy is not good and will likely come under more scrutiny in the coming months once the dust settles on this Coalition government here.

My longer term expectation is for GBP weakness against the USD and strength against the EUR and JPY. Gotta love unmitigated opinion right
a 4H bearish pinbar just posted on a pretty clear channel that also coincides with the a bounce off the 149-150 s/r level. I think it at least looks bearish for the short term (next few days) at least form a technical perspective.
  • #8,609
  • May 11, 2010 7:27pm May 11, 2010 7:27pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Chris, I know you don't do fortune telling but how low can you see euraud and eurcad falling? Neither seem to have any support at all now, parity here we come? (and eurnzd)

I learned a long time ago that those kind of moves are almost impossible to predict. The quick answer is: "Until it stops falling."

Sorry, but that's about how it really is.
  • #8,610
  • May 11, 2010 7:43pm May 11, 2010 7:43pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Although not directly related to the thread, for those interested, here is a chart of Greek 2yr Debt. Just to give you a sense for how violent a move they've seen over the last several weeks:

Attachment
Nice. Thanks for posting.....I always like to see other markets, and what is going on.
  • #8,611
  • May 11, 2010 7:46pm May 11, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi CW,

On your N/CHF chart would you wait for a weekly close or a daily close below the pinbar to enter. I ask because obviously a weekly close is a stronger signal but has the negative of potentially falling a lot further before close.

It is a question I have been meaning to ask lately because I follow GOLD quite closely and the recent market action seems to reward trades based off daily closes however the vicious upward spiral it is in may be giving me a false impression of a broader rule used in your method?

Cheers mate.
I don't worry too much either way. 1% risk is 1 % risk. The size of the bar doesn't matter one bit. I agree that a weekly pinbar is more impressionable, but it really comes down to where it appears, more importantly than on what time frame.
  • #8,612
  • May 11, 2010 7:52pm May 11, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting TraderDavo
What does this say for the Pound/Dollar? It broke a weekly trendline short last week (or the week before), but I am wondering what the elections being figured out will do... I still like the strength of the Pound to Euro, but I don't really know what to think fundamentally regarding the pound/dollar.
The thinking is that Britain will get it together for some budget cuts. I saw that trend line deal too, but to be honest - I would be a little more apt to think it's a bounce more than a long term run.

Attached is my chart at the moment.....weekly time frame. Might want to wait until the close of this weekly candle to worry about this trade.

(resting on the chart actually means RETESTING. typo, sorry.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 45 KB
  • #8,613
  • May 12, 2010 6:05am May 12, 2010 6:05am
Quoting 4xAddict
USDMXN

CW,

What are your thoughts on the USDMXN at current levels?

The latest pinbar on weekly looks like a retest of this level on the way down? or am I missing something?

Assuming this is an ok sell signal:

Because this is against the weekly trend, would it be wise to target the 12.15 area given it looks to be coming out of mid channel minor S/R area.

Or have I messed this up entirely?

Cheers, 4x.

Do me a favor, and redo the daily chart so I can see the shape of some of those bars.....
  • #8,614
  • May 12, 2010 7:28am May 12, 2010 7:28am
My short on the AUDCAD got filled yesterday when the price broke below the weekly 1 2 3 top. Anyone else in on this trade?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad w.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #8,615
  • May 12, 2010 9:40am May 12, 2010 9:40am
Quoting jharvey407
My short on the AUDCAD got filled yesterday when the price broke below the weekly 1 2 3 top. Anyone else in on this trade?
No I am not, but it certainly caught my attention. Not based on 1-2-3 top but just a simple close below that major support.
  • #8,616
  • May 12, 2010 9:41am May 12, 2010 9:41am
Quoting 4xAddict
Chris,

I updated the last USDMXN post to save space and have also added an AUDJPY chart for review as a potential long.

Based on the AUDJPY charts attached what are you thoughts for this as a potential long trade?

Thanks, 4x.

Looks a little sloppy to me to be honest.
  • #8,617
  • May 12, 2010 9:41am May 12, 2010 9:41am
Quoting 4xAddict
Chris,

I updated the last USDMXN post to save space and have also added an AUDJPY chart for review as a potential long.

Based on the AUDJPY charts attached what are you thoughts for this as a potential long trade?

Thanks, 4x.

You mention a pinbar in MXN - I don't see it.....
  • #8,618
  • May 12, 2010 10:03am May 12, 2010 10:03am
Quoting clockwork71
You mention a pinbar in MXN - I don't see it.....
Thanks. I must have confused myself with a lower TF as there's not a pinbar now I look back at it. Sorry mate, I deleted the posts so they aren't filling the thread with rubbish
  • #8,619
  • May 12, 2010 10:33am May 12, 2010 10:33am
Quoting 4xAddict
Thanks. I must have confused myself with a lower TF as there's not a pinbar now I look back at it. Sorry mate, I deleted the posts so they aren't filling the thread with rubbish
Sober up before you post next time please.
  • #8,620
  • May 12, 2010 11:51am May 12, 2010 11:51am
Quoting egkid
I told u, Euro Mash
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...55431&page=476
Hi ALL
Hope everyone doing ok :-) More than 1000 pip drop since then.
Sorry not posting much have my job and it take most of my time.That why i prefer long term trade
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