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Higher low, lower high system

  • #921
  • May 10, 2010 8:24am May 10, 2010 8:24am
No losing trades today, lovely. Haven't looked at charts all that closely but I don't think there were any losing set ups at all.
  • #922
  • May 11, 2010 2:09am May 11, 2010 2:09am
I was a touch late this am for this one. Just showing as another example of the pcture perfect set ups that occur pretty much every day.
I'm just wondering if the market has shrugged off the whole Greece etc rescue plan. Member countries largely in a mess (except Germany) trying to rescue other countries in a mess. Like the (slightly less) blind leading the blind?? Lots more eu, ej downside to come, we'll see.
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  • #923
  • May 11, 2010 2:31am May 11, 2010 2:31am
Morning V. I took this exact E/J trade although I didn't enter until FO. Been burnt too many times with an abrupt reversal right at FO. Out too early (as usual) at only +18.
Also took the cable trade at about the same time and out for +14.

Today I started out trying to trade E/U, E/J and G/U but 3 pairs are too much for these old eyes. Think I'll focus on just E/J and G/U.

The bad news is I then took the second LH on cable - late entry on my part and finished up -12. Ouch..... Not sure what Roystons indicators read at that point in time, so I'll use Snapshot for a while to understand them a little better.
Anyway, thanks for the 2 good trades.
  • #924
  • May 11, 2010 2:58am May 11, 2010 2:58am
Quoting orientos
Morning V. I took this exact E/J trade although I didn't enter until FO. Been burnt too many times with an abrupt reversal right at FO. Out too early (as usual) at only +18.
Also took the cable trade at about the same time and out for +14.

Today I started out trying to trade E/U, E/J and G/U but 3 pairs are too much for these old eyes. Think I'll focus on just E/J and G/U.

The bad news is I then took the second LH on cable - late entry on my part and finished up -12. Ouch..... Not sure what Roystons indicators read at that point in time, so...
Nice trades O.

Attached the gu 2nd trade you took.

OK at the time the top line would have shown red arrows down for a negative but still open candle 1hr candle, the 1hr candle now showing green boxes as it has subsequently closed positive. The 15 min candles middle line also showed solid red. Bottom line red so we are below the 1hr 8lwma. A perfect 5 min lh.

As mentioned its only
(1) FH reversal time that kept me out and
(2) Mrs V (back sick again going to Dr this pm) is FIRMLY of the opinion that FH has 1 and 1 tradeable move only. She would have been seriously ticked off if I'd have lost money on a 2nd move in FH. I'm not gonna argue with her.

It will be wrong at times but its saved losses on numerous occassions. Trade 1 move and 1 only in FH.

1st 2 trades you mention, nice.
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  • #925
  • May 11, 2010 3:02am May 11, 2010 3:02am
Quoting Vantage
Nice trades O.

Attached the gu 2nd trade you took.

OK at the time the top line would have shown red arrows down for a negative but still open candle 1hr candle, the 1hr candle now showing green boxes as it has subsequently closed positive. The 15 min candles middle line also showed solid red. Bottom line red so we are below the 1hr 8lwma. A perfect 5 minlh.

As mentioned its only
(1) FH reversal time that kept me out and
(2) Mrs V (back sick again going to Dr this pm) is FIRMLY of the opinion that FH has 1 and 1 tradeable move only. She would...
Forgot to mention that 40-50 pips is a decent range for FH. So consider where you got in on that kind of range and exit accordingly.
  • #926
  • May 11, 2010 3:06am May 11, 2010 3:06am
Quoting Vantage
Mrs V (back sick again going to Dr this pm) is FIRMLY of the opinion that FH has 1 and 1 tradeable move only. She would have been seriously ticked off if I'd have lost money on a 2nd move in FH. I'm not gonna argue with her.

It will be wrong at times but its saved losses on numerous occassions. Trade 1 move and 1 only in FH.

1st 2 trades you mention, nice.
To clarify, what I mean is that if you have a move down fine, sell once only. If you have another sell don't take that move down. If you want to trade the FH half hour reversal thats OK. I mean FH has 1 tradeable move in a direction reversal trade a different issue.
  • #927
  • May 11, 2010 3:17am May 11, 2010 3:17am
Quoting orientos

The bad news is I then took the second LH on cable - late entry on my part and finished up -12. Ouch..... Not sure what Roystons indicators read at that point in time, so I'll use Snapshot for a while to understand them a little better.
Anyway, thanks for the 2 good trades.
Morning all.
I got caught at roughly the same time on USDJPY, entry at 07:44. Picture perfect break of a 15 min hammer just below the 50 RN in a down trend. Or so I thought, Out for -12 as it reversed. Which is roughly the time the whole market reversed.
What you are saying about reversals, and trades available during FH is very interesting Vantage. I am always wary of that time of day, but have never formulated a strategy to cope with it. Respect to Mrs V, that's what I say, lol.... and when you trade EJ, do you alter lot size or stops? (It seems to have much bigger swings than other pairs)
  • #928
  • May 11, 2010 3:19am May 11, 2010 3:19am
I'm still catching up on the thread, so pardon me while I ask what FH stands for?
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #929
  • May 11, 2010 3:30am May 11, 2010 3:30am
V.thanks for those comments on FH. It makes sense and I am sure not going to argue with Mrs V. as she has proven so correct in the past. Please pass my regards and thanks on to her.

Royston - E/J has been very "jumpy" lately although it has traded more smoothly in the past. I am getting quite a few requotes from FXPro and in my opinion you need a 20 pip S/L
  • #930
  • Edited 3:35am May 11, 2010 3:32am | Edited 3:35am
Quoting Royston
What you are saying about reversals, and trades available during FH is very interesting Vantage. I am always wary of that time of day, but have never formulated a strategy to cope with it. Respect to Mrs V, that's what I say, lol.... and when you trade EJ, do you alter lot size or stops? (It seems to have much bigger swings than other pairs)

Hi Royston
Sorry about that loss.

Islander has 'written the book' on FH half hour reversals. Slightly hl, double bottoms, marginally lower low at his defined important levels all seem to trigger. Anyway what we won't do is take a 2nd trade in same direction at the half hour mark when FH has done close to its normal range 40-50 pips on gu.

We tend now to stick to the system as defined here, also hl/lh's at reversal levels (aka 123 tops/bottoms) and good 15 min candles next 1 min hl/lh (for those times there isn't a defined 5 min hl/lh).

EJ same lot size but stops slightly bigger 15-20.

Thanks again for your work on the candle indi's here. Its forcing me to really focus on trading the right candles.

I'll add another example of a trade not taken and a loss saved. 1hr up but closed as a shooting star, 5 min still has a series of higher highs and higher lows. 15 min has a series of 15 min higher closes so I'm not convinced we are going down. Staying to 1 side. Definitely not selling see arrow down.
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  • #931
  • May 11, 2010 3:32am May 11, 2010 3:32am
FH is Frankfurt Hour - ie the 60 mins before London Open.
  • #932
  • May 11, 2010 3:33am May 11, 2010 3:33am
Quoting cosgrove
I'm still catching up on the thread, so pardon me while I ask what FH stands for?
Sorry for lingo, Frankies Hour immediately before London open. Check out Medici and Islander tarde Euro open in journal threads.
  • #933
  • May 11, 2010 3:37am May 11, 2010 3:37am
Quoting orientos
Please pass my regards and thanks on to her.

Royston - E/J has been very "jumpy" lately ............... in my opinion you need a 20 pip S/L
Cheers, will do and 20 pips yeah.
  • #934
  • May 11, 2010 3:40am May 11, 2010 3:40am
Quoting Vantage
Nice trades O.


(2) Mrs V (back sick again going to Dr this pm) is FIRMLY of the opinion that FH has 1 and 1 tradeable move only. She would have been seriously ticked off if I'd have lost money on a 2nd move in FH. I'm not gonna argue with her.

It will be wrong at times but its saved losses on numerous occassions. Trade 1 move and 1 only in FH.
I've come to a similar conclusion over time. On occasion, I used to try to get on the move with the next HL or LH if I missed the first one in Frankie's Hour. This proved to be a poor allocation of funds and often didn't have the best R/R even when I did get a good move. In addition, if you do catch a good trend mid-way through the Frankfurt move, you will have to be very careful about taking your pips because we so often see a quick pullback leading into London Open that can quickly wipe out your profits.
  • #935
  • May 11, 2010 3:43am May 11, 2010 3:43am
Looking for sell here, this 15 min chart shows clear area for turn. Topped out at D pivot 4886.
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  • #936
  • May 11, 2010 4:05am May 11, 2010 4:05am
Frankfurt Hour... perfect. Danke!
Hindsight is 20/20
  • #937
  • May 11, 2010 4:56am May 11, 2010 4:56am
Quoting Auron112
I've come to a similar conclusion over time. On occasion, I used to try to get on the move with the next HL or LH if I missed the first one in Frankie's Hour. This proved to be a poor allocation of funds and often didn't have the best R/R even when I did get a good move. In addition, if you do catch a good trend mid-way through the Frankfurt move, you will have to be very careful about taking your pips because we so often see a quick pullback leading into London Open that can quickly wipe out your profits.

Yep.

The move I was looking for did happen. LH on 5 min below 4886 area. 1hr neg close top line red. 15 min was green being a hammer and then a shooting star that just did not want to follow through above 4860 area. So although the middle line showing green I was happy enough with the 15 min candle upper wick. Sold 4841 exit +25 when the 2nd effort below 4825 struggled.

Got some sick people that want some lunch so I'm outta here.

Oh of course whilst I'm grabbing some screenshots now it falls.

2 trades today no losers.

Mmmmh now move up failed would expect move to 4640 area.
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  • #938
  • May 12, 2010 1:52am May 12, 2010 1:52am
2 pretty much identical set ups on gu and ej this am but 1 big diff, for me at least.

Both had strong 1hr closes followed by 15 min hammers, 5 min hl's on the 15 min close. Perfect system set ups.

I had gu up it closed below the even number (hate it when it does that) ej closed above its even number and went, no time to switch over.

Missed opportunity.
  • #939
  • May 12, 2010 1:53am May 12, 2010 1:53am
Mrs V booked off with pneumonia, doc says she can come back to work on 17th.
  • #940
  • May 12, 2010 2:05am May 12, 2010 2:05am
Sorry to hear that Mrs. V. is not very well and we wish her all the best. No bending the rules while she is away!
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