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Silent Service Method

  • #8,581
  • May 10, 2010 11:01am May 10, 2010 11:01am
Quoting stefx
It's a 750bn. package from which austria carries the guarantee of 13bn €. The austrian annual budget as of 2009 in numbers:

 

  1. revenues: $181.2 billion
  2. expenditures: $194.4 billion (2009 est.)


Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/au.html

From what should we answer this guarantee ?
Do we see the beginning of the end from the EURO and the EU ?

In fact I would both not miss, coz counting the pros and cons from EU it's a clear short !

Stefan.

Let me offer my opinion on this, since I am an American...and have never been to Europe: I could be an "expert" on CNBC. LOL

Anyway, I don't think the Euro was a bad idea in theory. But you have to get around 2,000 years or more of history. The French and Germans are two different animals.

Austrians are different from Germans, a fact that most Americans wouldn't know. When the World Cup was here, there were packs of Austrians wearing shirts that had a swastika crossed out on it that said: "Proud not to be a Kraut." They had the red and white of Austria displayed proudly.

I prefer the idea that seems to be floating around at the moment: Busting up the Euro, and going to several different "blocks". Think of a scenario like this: The Northerners leave the EUR, and form their own thing. It would make them competitive, but would also make sense. I imagine something like these countries in the mix:

Germany
Austria
Holland
France (would join this one, because they won't want to be in the southern group...)
Denmark might be enticed to join.
Belgium

I think a group like this would be a strong one. The other countries are in a different league quite frankly.

You Europeans like relegation in your football leagues.....why not currencies?

League 1:
Germany
Austria
Holland
Belgium
France
Monaco (it pays to be that cool.)
Vatican City (when you have God on your side, you get automatic promotion.)

League 2:
Italy (which being painfully Italian, refers to this as "Serie B".)
Ireland
Finland (you can only sell so many cell phones.)
Luxembourg
Slovenia
Slovakia
Spain
Montenegro (there's bonus points for an Americans that know where this is.)
Portugal

Conference/County Leagues:
Greece (is currently applying to join a rec league as we speak.)
Malta
Andorra
Kosovo
Cyprus
San Marino (A race track shouldn't be a country.)
  • #8,582
  • May 10, 2010 11:35am May 10, 2010 11:35am
Quoting clockwork71
League 1:
Germany
Austria
Holland
Belgium
France
Monaco (it pays to be that cool.)
Vatican City (when you have God on your side, you get automatic promotion.)
Hi.

Your opinion always is welcome. It's also an interesting point of view and would be a reduction to the countries which originally founded the EG, later on EU (Benelux, Germany, France, Italy). The following unthoughtful assimilation of countries, each faking their balance sheets to get into could be a part of the actual problems.

I know you're talking only in soccer slang but be careful putting Austrian soccer into the first League

Stefan
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #8,583
  • May 10, 2010 11:36am May 10, 2010 11:36am
It sure sucks to be the pound today....


(I might have shorted it)
  • #8,584
  • May 10, 2010 11:42am May 10, 2010 11:42am
Quoting clockwork71
San Marino (A race track shouldn't be a country.)
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,585
  • May 10, 2010 5:15pm May 10, 2010 5:15pm
still in my friend . and added a new one too
thanks golfer
samer


Quoting golferfx
Hey Samer,

You still short my friend....

Thanks for the heads up !



good hunting,

golferfx
  • #8,586
  • May 10, 2010 5:17pm May 10, 2010 5:17pm
Quoting Low
There's no "I" in team.....LOL
True, but there is a 'U' in bull$#it!
  • #8,587
  • May 10, 2010 5:44pm May 10, 2010 5:44pm
low this trade is a beauty .
great trading ! since we have entered this trade i look always for these patterns on weekly chart , looks like on weekly they are reliable most of the time
samer

Quoting Low
There's no "I" in team.....LOL

http://i42.tinypic.com/f5q88.png
  • #8,588
  • May 10, 2010 6:06pm May 10, 2010 6:06pm
Quoting samer960
low this trade is a beauty .
great trading ! since we have entered this trade i look always for these patterns on weekly chart , looks like on weekly they are reliable most of the time
samer

Reliability isn't always easy to come by....remember the b-fly silver short?

Turned around at the first stop.

Usually I take 1/2 off at point "B", and another 30%-40% off at point "C". That way if they don't go for the full monty, at least I get something for my trouble.
  • #8,589
  • May 10, 2010 6:14pm May 10, 2010 6:14pm
agreed low , nothing works all the time .
for this trade we had other confirmations like historical high and a huge shooting star on weekly . it gave enough signs to lead us the way .and this G was one sign in plus .
a text book trade , congrat !
samer
Quoting Low
Reliability isn't always easy to come by....remember the b-fly silver short?

Turned around at the first stop.

Usually I take 1/2 off at point "B", and another 30%-40% off at point "C". That way if they don't go for the full monty, at least I get something for my trouble.
  • #8,590
  • May 10, 2010 6:43pm May 10, 2010 6:43pm
Sometimes a pinbar gets laid out in traffic, and you aren't too sure about it. But take a look at this chart below, Sugar #11 (July).

You can see how extended this drop in price is, and that we are getting a pinbar at an extreme. These are good signs typically. I am not trading Sugar, (not man enough. lol) but I wanted to post this because it's such a good example.

The blue lines are the next three possible targets.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sugar.png Size: 32 KB
  • #8,591
  • May 10, 2010 7:33pm May 10, 2010 7:33pm
I am not trading Sugar, (not man enough. lol) but I wanted to post this because it's such a good example.

The blue lines are the next three possible targets.....[/quote]


u the man chris , cant thank u enough for this thread, these charts get printed in our head and when we see it again we know we are looking at a great set up
cheers
samer
  • #8,592
  • May 10, 2010 7:39pm May 10, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting clockwork71
You can see how extended this drop in price is, and that we are getting a pinbar at an extreme. These are good signs typically.
Hi CW, I have tried playing the PBs for a while (on intraday), and could never know if a PB was at an extreme, at the time the PB closes. Sometimes another PB forms right after, and pointing the other way! I suppose it would be better to wait for price to make HH or LL (to show where it wants to go), right?
  • #8,593
  • May 10, 2010 8:32pm May 10, 2010 8:32pm
I'm sure you're man enough for this one!

Sugar ETF:

http://finviz.com/publish/051010/SGGc1dl2129.png
  • #8,594
  • May 10, 2010 11:16pm May 10, 2010 11:16pm
Quoting albertsy2
Hi CW, I have tried playing the PBs for a while (on intraday), and could never know if a PB was at an extreme, at the time the PB closes. Sometimes another PB forms right after, and pointing the other way! I suppose it would be better to wait for price to make HH or LL (to show where it wants to go), right?
That's one way to do it, yes. However, there is a certain amount of "instinct" that goes into trading as well. I wouldn't rely on it solely, but I think it comes from watching enough charts.

The Sugar chart just shows a pinbar that is begging to bounce. Keep in mind though, there is no such thing as a 100% sure signal. (Unless golferfx and samer are on the same trade. lol)
  • #8,595
  • May 10, 2010 11:17pm May 10, 2010 11:17pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I'm sure you're man enough for this one!

Sugar ETF:

http://finviz.com/publish/051010/SGGc1dl2129.png

Huh. I didn't know there was sich a thing as a Sugar ETF. I imagine it's a combination of futures, refiners, etc. Interesting....
  • #8,596
  • May 11, 2010 7:00am May 11, 2010 7:00am
While this example isn't as extreme as the Sugar one I posted, this is a good example of one none the less.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kiwiswiss.png Size: 41 KB
  • #8,597
  • May 11, 2010 7:45am May 11, 2010 7:45am
As we know that the big spike up was a freak move does that make this trendline interesting?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad weekly 11 05 2010.gif Size: 37 KB
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,598
  • May 11, 2010 10:44am May 11, 2010 10:44am
Quoting Arfer Daily
As we know that the big spike up was a freak move does that make this trendline interesting?
I know that a lot of technical traders believe that if a candle doesn't close above a trend line, or S/R line, it's considered a false breakout. As such, yes.....it makes the case for that line a bit stronger.
  • #8,599
  • May 11, 2010 10:50am May 11, 2010 10:50am
Quoting clockwork71
I know that a lot of technical traders believe that if a candle doesn't close above a trend line, or S/R line, it's considered a false breakout. As such, yes.....it makes the case for that line a bit stronger.
Well the week closed just above it but gapped back on Monday. It's interesting that Monday retested the trendline before dropping, the gap didn't close. I think it's still too messy to enter.

Eurgbp is grinding it's way down slowly but surely.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,600
  • May 11, 2010 10:52am May 11, 2010 10:52am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Well the week closed just above it but gapped back on Monday. It's interesting that Monday retested the trendline before dropping, the gap didn't close. I think it's still too messy to enter.

Eurgbp is grinding it's way down slowly but surely.

I'm glad you pointed this out.....I was just coming back to comment on it again.....similar to your thoughts.

I just saw that Cameron will probably be the PM in England, and that is driving a little bit of GBP buying at the moment.

**** 5 minutes after typing this: An announcement is scheduled for a little later to state an agreement has been reached. ****
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