USDCAD trend reversal?

My LOONIETEK take tonight. For amusement purposes only.

US/CAD: $ hit the Dtf down TL (5-25 Feb) @1.0360
MacD is up & X'd it's sig & H2O lines.

Euro: I am still Bearish ( who ain't?). But on the M chart.......

1.26 has been 2X support in the past
May-Oct 2006 & Oct/08- Mar/09

And then... there is the E/CHF

Thanks for the compliment Scarecru,
Using fundamentals in analysis is not so hard if one has some patience.
There are all kinds of forces at work in the markets but I view Fundies as being something like the Water. It is a natural phenomenum that is there and just keeps wearing down its opposition. If one has the guts to go to sleep at night with open positions, then let time do its' thing.
Cannot stay awake 24 hours a day just to watch some price action.

One will never be able to decide what particular event or string of events will change market consciousness. But if there is time allowed and some understanding of what the market is focusing upon it can be coupled with technical analysis to confirm a direction.

We are not predicting, but observing and putting to use our interpretation of that observation.

As in the book, it is the thinking that gets you in, it is the sitting that makes the money.

As in the book it is the thinking that gets you in, but it is the sitting where the money is made.

In the long run neither you nor I can trade someone elses thinking. We have to stand on our own sealegs and learn to trust in whatever method is employed.

The market will let you know soon enough if the choice was correct.

My mid-term numbers tell me we need to get over 1.0465 and have oil keep dropping. Otherwise, no new long trades for me in this area. I'm green all across the board and I've bagged and recovered a tonne of pips these last 2 weeks. And although the EU is down, the UCHF is down too. Not sure what to make of this. Obviously, the EU has it's own serious problems and other currencies are benefiting, especially the greenback. But why would the UCHF be down then, unless investors are reloading on the long USD. Don't know. But let's find out.

Good pippin' all.

Look for:

1.0411
1.0449
1.0507
1.0563
1.0665
1.0744 (fibo line)
(look for retrace)

I was going to post all these levels over the coming days, as the UC pair goes up. But I guess I can post them all now since they all happened in the last 4H candle.

Un-real.

This may not be the end of it. I may be crazy but am holding for EURO/USD at 1.20 EURO/GBP at .80 USD/CAD at least to 1.10 AUD/USD at .80
Am not sure have got the stomach.

The Chinese currency manipulation has so distorted the real world that it still is not unglued.

"It ain't over till its' over." Yogi Berra

Nice going Duce.

Tonite Asia equities will fall to pieces. No way they will accept the Yen strengthening like this.

...Ya might wish to take to the bank.

Scary when some person makes an error :"B" for an
"M" & the markets go ape-sh**,

However; that news netted 800+ PIPS today. Thank you PIP Gods (luv buying U/C & sell BEAVER @ same time)

This action leads ME to view USD & Y as buys for my trading decisions.

Shall format my trades after the NFP & Cad news this weekend.

FOTO: re: loonie

you are not crazy ('cept like a fox)

M +ve STO div

W STO is up MacD < H2O ( BUT > signal) Watch down TL from '09/Jul5 - "10/Feb 7.

Ima think slight retrace (0385/0250) then 1.10/1.11 then head back to parity.

This only my journal thoughts & subject to change in the next 2 or 3 beers..

Uncharted waters we are in.
In an attempt to interpret what is going on, penning the following.

The break in P&G is an indication that the underlying broad market equities technicals is very weak. P&G as a consumer staple provider, is like having the rock of gibraltar failing. The only thing that saved from a catastrophic selloff thursday was the treasury intervening, buying up the market to stave it off.

I think as they have been doing in markets, governments are going to intervene to stabilize the Euro.

There is much short positions on now and the potential for a government induced squeeze is quite real. Am not hanging arround with open exposure to that sort of thing occurring.

The Euro downside although long term remains quite viable, nearer term, Governments will not allow this to progress much further. Went flat on Friday not because of these thoughts, hadn't thought through this enough, but because of the uncertainty of vision at that time.

Will wait for the countertrend rally to occur, jaded nerves of the public to be soothed by the siren calls of heads of states that we are bigger then the market. Then will recommence activities from the long USD perspective.

All actions subject to change as the dynamics of this crisis keep unfolding in unforseen ways. Right now the Keystone cops will do their thing, but they do own the tanks and planes and central banks.

Put your trading skills to work in this IMF euphoria!

Inform viewers of this thread about your market direction thoughts through song!

I propose: (I am able to do it;as it is my creative idea)

Tune #1: "Happy Days Are Here Again"

" Happy days are here again, we saved Greece, whose next in line?
The EMU is working fine. Happy days are here again.
Next maybe Portugal or Italy or .... mayhap it might be Spain.
Ireland.. it doesn't matter....
Cuz, happy days are here again!"

Tune #2: Queen's "We are the Champions"

"We are the champions of the world....
We determine the price of silver and gold.
We are the IMF.....We are the IMF...
Buy all your Euros, sell all your dollars...
Yet, we we are the champions of the world!"
Amusement purposes only.

first prize is a poutine recipe.( warning: could have moose in the recipe)

I had a buy set at 1.0156. I guess I'm now long at 1.0156. +30 pips right now. Will set SL to BE. TP will be over 1.02. Not sure where.

Actually, set SL to 1.0175

Out at 1.0211

FOTO: This grain of wisdom in the IMF/EMU oyster is apparently on the way to becoming the flawless pearl!
I think that I read that US$ input was 20% of the entire package! Hope the US taxpayer is aware of this ( & approved it).

The Europhoria since the weekend should now become the "hangover" as the market returns to sobriety.

I am BEAR this pair ( & any E X's) Check E/CAD.

You be making way toooooo much pips!
Be careful; or you could end up with a hernia carting your cash to the bank.

I'm up 46.1% over the last 16 months. But I do close bad trades as well. I will try to post those bad trades when they happen, but most of the time, my MM skills help me minimize some of my past bad decisions. Like last Thursday's shoot up to 1.07. I had some old longs that I was able to close at BE after weeks of holding them. Even if it didn't shoot up so dramatically, I'm still able to stomach some of my bad trades. MM is the key for me.

And hopefully, I can wish you a speedy recovery from your 'pip' hernia operation in the near future. Good trading to you, sir.

G'nite.

11 hours of nothing. No TP hit. No SL hit. Thank god I slept through most of this sideways action.

That's better. Much better.

@duce: i see you are quite fammiliar with this pair, and i allready leave this pair for 6 month and i start this pair from zero again right now.
i need some advice :
1. if this pair so reactive to news release?
2. can this pair goes to 0.99xx level again?

i want to start to trade this pair again, but before i start to jump into this pair again i want to gather as many information as i can. i hope you can help me with this.